2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[BroncosFan2010]

Does anyone have imput on Jordan Ta'Amu from Ole Miss? From what I saw he is a very accurate developmental guy who wasnt asked to do too much in College, so his diagnosis and progressions are very subpar. But you cant teach accuracy and he has that going for him. I see him arguably on the lower end of the 2nd tier of QB's (Which is everyone after Haskins) and dont see a big enough difference between him and, say, Findley to take one R2 and the other R4.

I think he isnt getting enough chatter honestly. Not a world beater but a good kid, hardworking, elite character with the most difficult to teach QB trait, accuracy, already on his side. Could he be one of those guys that comes from a very simple college offense, is dinged in the draft process for this, and develops suprisingly well? IDK, but I think he should be in the convo.

 

[French Fan]

Andrew Luck was a sure 1st pick but today 0 Superbowl for the Colts , inury prone.........I am not so sure that Denver team is better than he's colts when he arrived.

Take a QB round1 round 2 round...is not a science but always a risk !! You can't win a SB with only a QB

[Scoundrel]

3 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Does anyone have imput on Jordan Ta'Amu from Ole Miss? From what I saw he is a very accurate developmental guy who wasnt asked to do too much in College, so his diagnosis and progressions are very subpar. But you cant teach accuracy and he has that going for him. I see him arguably on the lower end of the 2nd tier of QB's (Which is everyone after Haskins) and dont see a big enough difference between him and, say, Findley to take one R2 and the other R4.

I think he isnt getting enough chatter honestly. Not a world beater but a good kid, hardworking, elite character with the most difficult to teach QB trait, accuracy, already on his side. Could he be one of those guys that comes from a very simple college offense, is dinged in the draft process for this, and develops suprisingly well? IDK, but I think he should be in the convo.

 

I will check him out

[Scoundrel]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For me, the problem with the 2019 draft class isn't just that they come with very clear flaws (Haskins' only major flaw is the limited body of work, so there's more risk inherent to having a much smaller sample size, just can't argue that the ceiling/tools are there, and in this class, it's not even a question of the gap between him and the rest), but that with the exception of Haskins - all of the players have had very clear periods of struggle prior to this year, and for many, even during their final year.    That doesn't mean they won't succeed - but remember that caveat about year 1 almost always being a throwaway year for most teams that start NFL rookie QB's?   Well, if it takes you until your 3rd-4th year in college before you succeed, and you struggle even then at times, the likelihood of a prolonged NFL adjustment period goes up exponentially.   It's why I like to see early success in college along with owning the NFL-level QB-specific skill set (clean mechanics, anticipation & placement, ability to throw players open with accuracy) when considering Rd1 QB's.   

Even with early success in college, I still expect a learning curve period for the jump to the NFL, because the jump from college to NFL is just that much harder than from HS to college.    But for players who don't break out early in college, not only does it bring more concern about whether they can survive the jump to the NFL, where the competition skill level & speed of play goes up to a much higher degree, but it almost guarantees a longer adjustment period.    Now, that's OK if you are a Day 3 project, or even Rd3 type pick.   But for the capital of a Day 1 pick, taking 2-3 years before the light comes on, that's a huge cap to the return.  And it comes with a much higher bust potential.

Now, early success isn't the only criteria, you need to have the NFL-level throwing skills, and you need to develop the intangible, in-between-the-ear skills (which isn't an expectation out of college, but certainly is a huge bonus if you have it - why Watson's average skillset still played up right away, the intangibles were literally elite-level to begin with).     But if it took a while to adjust in college, then it's hard not to see it's going to take a while to adjust to the NFL level of complex D's and speed, barring very unusual circumstances.    It's why this class really has a ton of Q marks as to their ultimate ceiling, except for Haskins (who I'd imagine won't get out of the top 5, I suspect both NYG/JAX will try to move up to lock him up).

When we look at Grier & Jones, it certainly took them a while to hit that level of consistent success associated with breaking out.    And in Grier's case, he's still got work to do, and more flaws in the NFL-specific set - entering age 24, that's pretty troubling.  Lock's much younger, and his tool set is clearly highest among the 3...but he's also a mess when it comes to translating those tools to actual NFL throwing skills, it's all tools & projection with him.   After 3 years in college, it doesn't mean he's a lost cause, but man, that's a huge flag given our inability to develop guys with Lock's profile (all raw tools, poorly developed skillset).   And I suspect those 3 are the next tier after Haskins.    It's just a really hard group to get behind predicting being ready to start at year 2 in the NFL - if it took them a while to adjust to college, it's really iffy to suddenly think a guy is plug-and-play year 2, let alone year 1 in the NFL.    And none of these guys have elite level tools which might make up for that adjustment period.   Which is totally fine - until you start drafting them in Rd1.   You draft a QB Rd3+, if they need 2 years, no problem, develop them.  But remember the expectations when we drafted Lynch - even though most scouting reports said he'd need 2 years, this was hotly disputed.  And certainly we barely made it to Year 3 (although man, that was one ugly display of zero growth lol).   

If we draft a QB Rd1, whether we like to admit it or not, we'll expect at latest they are starting Week 1, year 2  and play at least at an average level for year 2 (and certainly the latest timeframe if we go top 10 is to start year 2, many will expect year 1 starting at some point).  The problem with this group, outside of Haskins, their college growth curve suggests that's a tall order, given how long it took to get them into the breakout stage, and the flaws they still have now (Jones to me has the most NFL-ready skill set in-between the ears out of those 3, but his struggles until this year at the college level really suggests adjustment to a higher level of competition is going to take some more time - again, not a problem if you are drafting them as typical developmental guys - but Rd1 changes both the expectations and the timeline).    Add in the fact that investing a Rd1 pick means we skip on 2020's class, well, given that the 3 guys we likely are choosing from are Lock/Grier/Jones, I certainly hope we aren't spending 1.10 on them, it's just much too high a price for the QB we're getting (even Rd2 IMO is a stretch in theory, but then at least the overpay isn't OMG-crazy).

Your argument for early success doesn’t work with Grier. He redshirted his true freshman year. Played pretty well his redshirt freshman year but was suspended for a banned substance. Then sat out a year per transfer rules and then had two good years at WVU. His circumstances are different. It’s not like he struggled early on like some other guys the argument can be applied to. 

[Scoundrel]

Also a guy like Matt Ryan... didn’t throw more than 15 tds until his final year at BC and had some struggles. Throwing a whopping 17 ints his senior year with a 59 percent completion percentage. He’s been an alright NFL QB. 

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Also a guy like Matt Ryan... didn’t throw more than 15 tds until his final year at BC and had some struggles. Throwing a whopping 17 ints his senior year with a 59 percent completion percentage. He’s been an alright NFL QB. 

Yeah, there's no set criteria that are going to be free of exceptions for sure - it's not like having all the criteria makes you fool-proof to be a success - it's just that the odds of success are far greater with the combo, and lower without that combo.    But it's not going to be an exact science - I mean if it was, it wouldn't be so hard for teams to get it right.

Re: Grier, though, entirely fair that he had redshirt freshman success - but the flip side is that he's not close to a complete guy skill-wise now, and he's struggled in games he should have fared OK in (not just against powerhouses) even in his final year - it's concerning that he still has stuff to work this late, he should be killing it by now.       

Edited January 3, 2019 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, there's no set criteria that are going to be free of exceptions for sure - it's not like having all the criteria makes you fool-proof to be a success - it's just that the odds of success are far greater with the combo, and lower without that combo.    But it's not going to be an exact science - I mean if it was, it wouldn't be so hard for teams to get it right.

Re: Grier, though, entirely fair that he had freshman success - but the flip side is that he's not close to a complete guy skill-wise now - so it's concerning that he still has stuff to work this late, he should be killing it by now.    

Killing it? I mean the almost 4K passing yards 67% completion percentage and 37/8 Td Int ratio is pretty good. And three of those INT were on predetermined throws called by the coordinator. Grier needs the trying to do too much coached out of him and the throw the ball away and live to fight another day coached into him. Not sure it will happen but I’ve seen guys improve on it once they got to the league. 

I don’t think he is a perfect prospect but I certainly think he is worth round 2. Maybe we have something in him maybe we don’t it’s a gamble that should be taken and then address QB in 2020 until you get it right. 

 

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Killing it? I mean the almost 4K passing yards 67% completion percentage and 37/8 Td Int ratio is pretty good. And three of those INT were on predetermined throws called by the coordinator. Grier needs the trying to do too much coached out of him and the throw the ball away and live to fight another day coached into him. Not sure it will happen but I’ve seen guys improve on it once they got to the league. 

I don’t think he is a perfect prospect but I certainly think he is worth round 2. Maybe we have something in him maybe we don’t it’s a gamble that should be taken and then address QB in 2020 until you get it right. 

 

If he was entering his age-22 year this draft and doing what he did this year, my concerns would disappear.   Remember, my objections to the 3 guys I mentioned is that they all seem like Rd1 selections, and for us at 1.10..man, that's a huge overpay for the risk / ceiling involved.   Now, it's like you said - he's not a perfect prospect, but I'd also probably live with a Round 2 selection (I think it's little early for 2.41, but it's not horrible).   I'm not attached to Rd2, or Rd3 - just attached to a number that doesn't commit Elway to skip 2020 if we don't get it right.   I want Elway to take a look at someone, just not commit to 3+ years of holding them because we drafted them so high.   I'd probably say the same about 3-4 other guys too if the price is cheap enough that it doesn't make us pot-committed to the 2019 guy simply because of our price paid, even if we have a chance at a better 2020 guy.

I absolutely agree with the sentiment to keep trying until you get it right.   Some QB should be drafted by Elway this year - just not so early, that we're tying all our future to him, unless we are dead sure we want to marry ourselves to a guy for 2-3 years no matter what.   That's my objection with this class - Haskins is the only guy I'd probably be OK with tying my future with no matter what - and he's breaking my rule of having 2+ years of work to evaluate, when I say that (so I do have exceptions to the rules, I agree his skills and performance do warrant making it).     

Everyone else, I'm fine with getting, if we aren't so married to them that we pass on 2020.   I just see a much better chance we find a guy we feel far better about in 2020 going early than anyone here (save Haskins, but like I said before, I don't think that's a realistic scenario, Gettleman and NYG have every other team but OAK outgunned, so I don't see him letting anyone but the Raiders outbid for his services).  But that doesn't mean we shouldn't keep looking - hit QB in 2019 at whatever round Elway feels he isn't married to (Rd 2, Rd 3, whatever that # is) - get the CFL guy (Bo Levi Mitchell) for a rookie contract, beat the bushes.   And then if we hit, great.   If not, be ready to hit 2020 hard.... just at the price we're seeing, hard to be excited about that group of very flawed guys for Rd1 talk (although I'd get the late-rd1 move from Rd 2 to get the 5th year option, that's different).  That's all I'm saying.

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

Daniel Jones

Pros

-Man he moves around the pocket and manipulates it. Looks a little like Peyton back there maybe it’s the Duke uniforms. 

-Active feet

-Keeps his eyes down field

-Tough and stands in the pocket and can take a hit 

-Good timing on deep ball 

-One of the few QBs in this draft who reads through multiple progressions 

-If he was in one of these other offenses, OU,WVU,OSU,Mizzou  I believe we would be seeing The 35 plus TD numbers. 

-Good athlete 

-Can sling it on the the run

-4:50 Q1 VT he has a guy hanging on his legs is still reading progression and throws for a first down. Very impressive.

-Worked well with constant pressure, lack of talent around him

-Should be smart went to Duke 

-Good size 

Cons

-Needs to sense edge pressure better

-Forces some throws 

-Needs to know when to get rid of the ball

-Needs to be more decisive on outs and comebacks, doesn’t have the arm strength to be late on these throws and make up for it. 

 -There were instances of him staring down a receiver too long leading to deflections or interceptions.

 

Jones will end up going top 10. I think he ends up a Jag or Giant whichever Haskins doesn’t end up. He has played with constant pressure in his face, he reads progressions, he has a good arm and movement in the pocket. I think he is going to be a good one despite the accuracy issues. 

[AKRNA]

4 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Daniel Jones

Pros

-Man he moves around the pocket and manipulates it. Looks a little like Peyton back there maybe it’s the Duke uniforms. 

-Active feet

-Keeps his eyes down field

-Tough and stands in the pocket and can take a hit 

-Good timing on deep ball 

-One of the few QBs in this draft who reads through multiple progressions 

-If he was in one of these other offenses, OU,WVU,OSU,Mizzou  I believe we would be seeing The 35 plus TD numbers. 

-Good athlete 

-Can sling it on the the run

-4:50 Q1 VT he has a guy hanging on his legs is still reading progression and throws for a first down. Very impressive.

-Worked well with constant pressure, lack of talent around him

-Should be smart went to Duke 

-Good size 

Cons

-Needs to sense edge pressure better

-Forces some throws 

-Needs to know when to get rid of the ball

-Needs to be more decisive on outs and comebacks, doesn’t have the arm strength to be late on these throws and make up for it. 

 -There were instances of him staring down a receiver too long leading to deflections or interceptions.

 

Jones will end up going top 10. I think he ends up a Jag or Giant whichever Haskins doesn’t end up. He has played with constant pressure in his face, he reads progressions, he has a good arm and movement in the pocket. I think he is going to be a good one despite the accuracy issues. 

I don't know man, I can't really think of one QB with accuracy issues that's been successful in this league. It's kinda the kiss of death.

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, AKRNA said:

I don't know man, I can't really think of one QB with accuracy issues that's been successful in this league. It's kinda the kiss of death.

His accuracy is hurt by the talent around him and the constant pressure in his face. It’s not like he is missing wide open guys or easy throws like Josh Allen was at Wyoming. We are talking dropped passes, deep balls off fingertips (that nfl receivers would easily have). Trust me I preach accuracy and footwork, big reason I was so high on Baker. I don’t see those issues carrying over with Jones. Heck Peyton had a 60.4% as a Senior at Tennessee. But it wasn’t because of his footwork which is a big killer and indicator of the issues translating to the next level. 

[Scoundrel]

I guess we will see

[Broncofan]

Re: Jones, the thing that stands out to me is how smart the guy is.    His intangibles are through the roof.    I love how he looks off safeties, keeps his eyes up, and gets through reads.   This is a guy I would be surprised if he can't stick around.   At the very worst, he should be a really good backup by year 3, and be a guy who hangs around for 7-8 years more barring injury.   

At the same time, the throwing skills took a long time to get right.   His arm strength is just ok.  His deep ball game really took off this year - but it took until this year.  Now maybe that's just getting all the mechanics squared away.   He also doesn't really exhibit pocket awareness or elusiveness (as a contrast, Watson's was so impressive coming out of college), so his athleticism actually plays down rather than plays up.     But for all those concerns, I will say that a guy with his intangibles, I don't think he'll flat out bust like a Lock might (or Lynch did).  

If you had a player with Lock's tools and Jones' smarts, you'd have one of those can't miss guys IMO.   And if you ask me to choose, the depth of Lock's problems are so great, I'll go Jones each time.  If the intangibles are great enough, they can overcome average physical tools (Watson is actually the best example I can think of, only his speed is above average, but even there it wasn't elite).   But both just don't make the grade for 1.10 because of the problems with each.     

FTR, out of the 3 guys I think who will likely all get Rd1 consideration after Haskins goes, for me I think it's Jones, Grier, Lock.   But I just can't pull the trigger at 1.10 for them.    I'd probably pass on Lock even at 2.41, TBH - I'd certainly look at the other 2 then.  Our history with guys with Lock's skill profile....just no thanks.

I also like the idea @BroncosFan2010 & others alluded to - just hit someone we think is intriguing somewhere Rd 3-4.  Maybe it's Thorson.  Maybe it's Ta'amu.   Now they are more flawed than the top non-Haskins tier - but the price is just so much more palatable, and the guarantee we're still all-in for 2020 if it doesn't work out appeals to me.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Re: Jones, the thing that stands out to me is how smart the guy is.    His intangibles are through the roof.    I love how he looks off safeties, keeps his eyes up, and gets through reads.   This is a guy I would be surprised if he can't stick around.   At the very worst, he should be a really good backup by year 3, and be a guy who hangs around for 7-8 years more barring injury.   

At the same time, the throwing skills took a long time to get right.   His arm strength is just ok.  His deep ball game really took off this year - but it took until this year.  Now maybe that's just getting all the mechanics squared away.   He also doesn't really exhibit pocket awareness or elusiveness (as a contrast, Watson's was so impressive coming out of college), so his athleticism actually plays down rather than plays up.     But for all those concerns, I will say that a guy with his intangibles, I don't think he'll flat out bust like a Lock might (or Lynch did).  

If you had a player with Lock's tools and Jones' smarts, you'd have one of those can't miss guys IMO.   And if you ask me to choose, the depth of Lock's problems are so great, I'll go Jones each time.  If the intangibles are great enough, they can overcome average physical tools (Watson is actually the best example I can think of, only his speed is above average, but even there it wasn't elite).   But both just don't make the grade for 1.10 because of the problems with each.     

He moves around in the pocket pretty impressively actually. I can list many examples of this if I need to. Smart runner too he can take off first downs after reading coverage instantaneously. The issues are some of that edge pressure and awareness of the rush as you stated. I would argue his elusiveness in the pocket is pretty good it’s the awareness of the outside pressure where the struggle is. Once he shows awareness of any presence he manipulates the pocket very well by stepping up or side stepping or taking off running for chunk gains. And boy did he have a lot of pressure bearing down on him especially not throwing these quick constant passes like the other QBs and going through more thorough progressions. 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Counselor said:

He moves around in the pocket pretty impressively actually. I can list many examples of this if I need to. Smart runner too he can take off first downs after reading coverage instantaneously. The issues are some of that edge pressure and awareness of the rush as you stated. I would argue his elusiveness in the pocket is pretty good it’s the awareness of the outside pressure where the struggle is. Once he shows awareness of any presence he manipulates the pocket very well by stepping up or side stepping or taking off running for chunk gains. And boy did he have a lot of pressure bearing down on him especially not throwing these quick constant passes like the other QBs and going through more thorough progressions. 

Yeah, I get your point - it's just that without edge pressure awareness - Jones is going to get killed.  Saying he has little pocket elusiveness is probably the wrong term - it's just without edge pressure awareness, it negates his athletic skills, thus the statement of them playing down.   As a contrast, the reason why Josh Rosen is still standing after 14 games behind perhaps the worst OL in modern history - he actually showed better edge pressure awareness than initially hinted at.    That was one historically bad OL, it's no wonder it basically got the statue known as Sam Bradford killed after 2+ games.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Broncofan