2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

It definitely should! Again I haven’t seen him this year but last year he looked like Matt stafford 2.0. All tools, makes good reads, poor footwork which resulted in inconsistent deep ball placement. So if he fell off of a cliff like that this year it makes me wonder why. It just highlights why having more than one year of tape on a guy is soooo important 

Yeah, Lock & Shea Patterson were the 2 guys most talked about before the season began (never understood why with Patterson).    But his play literally stalled.  And it was against pretty meh competition, I give him a pass for 'Bama/Georgia (although if you succeed against better competition, it's worth noting, but he didn't).  It's the other games (SC, Kentucky, and even with the other W's, a lot of underwhelming performances).  And as @BroncosFan2010 pointed out, in Missouri's system, he should produced far more than he did.  That's the other flag.   Either way, it suggests that he's going to need a fair amount of adjustment to the NFL level, since he clearly didn't dominate even college.

But, having said all the above, Lock's tools are going to stand out from now until the draft.   That much I'd be the first to concede.  Other than Haskins, you're not going to find a similar ceiling tool-wise in this draft (Haskins is highest by himself, and Lock's not that close, but just saying that Lock's tools will likely stand out above the rest).   And that's going to create a big reach based on a leap of faith those tools can be realized.   FWIW, the 1-year issue is why I still have qualms on Haskins - can't deny the performance, or the skills I see, just feel much better about 2+ years of tape in the box that there aren't weaknesses we're missing.   Still, the QB top-end class is so bad, I don't argue the notion that Haskins is the clear #1 QB, and frankly, if we got him, I couldn't mount the same objections skill-wise - just the 1-year tape does present more risk we are missing problems that aren't so apparent.  But it's a moot point, Haskins is going early - I would be shocked if NYG got him at 1.6, someone likely moves up to top 3-5 to ensure they get him (1.2 might even happen, the QB class is so bad).

Another scary though - with the inevitable draft hype, the "next Mahomes" talk is already starting with Lock.   Realizing that Gabbert is the floor.   And frankly, I don't see the Josh Allen / Pat Mahomes tool ceiling.   That's a lazy comp IMO.    Maybe he'll show differently in the Senior Bowl and Combine, but that generational level of ceiling usually shows up on tape.   For the disaster-floor that Allen has, he showed on tape the generational tool ceiling (and also the major issues with the skills that are hardest to acquire late).    That's not Lock IMO.   

The scary part is if the "next Mahomes" talk picks up - that's catnip to Elway's old draft tendencies.   Remember 2017 was all about finding the next Tyreke Hill and speed - so much so that we threw away multiple picks on pure-tool only guys.   Saying someone could be the "next Mahomes" is a trap Elway could easily fall back into.

1.10 IMO will be a huge test to see if 2018's lesson that football-skills matter in the higher picks - you can still get high-ceiling guys early (usually top 70-75 most years, last year and 2017 it was 90+ deep) but with actual football skills that translate.    Once you are far enough in the draft, by all means, go big, high-ceiling, bust-floor - because the alternatives aren't that much safer.  It's why Elway's Day 3 / UDFA history is so good.   But also why his Day 1-2 record pre-2018 was so miserable (2011-12 excepted, of course, but he was still going overall BPA then).   If Elway goes Lock at 1.10 (as Klis suggests might be the case today), it's back to tools-ceiling but low-skills all over again.    Granted, one of these days, one of those types of early gambles might hit big.   But it's hard to be optimistic with the Elway/Kubiak combo in charge of that evaluation, given their track record there, and Elway's track record with tools-only early picks.   

If the 2018 draft lessons stick, then passing on Lock at 1.10 is an easy call IMO.  And frankly, the #5-6 QB's who could easily go Rd3, that aren't far off from the strength/weakness profile as the non-Haskins guys who go Rd 1 (I really do think need is driving up the rankings, in a vacuum only Haskins would be a clear Rd1 pick).  A skills-analysis says you wait.   Hit QB later if you can't stand the idea of Keenum as our QB (and I can't stand it either), but definitely not Rd1 (and even 2.9 is iffy, but at least there it's not crazy-bad).  We'll see what lessons Elway's stuck with.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Broncofan

[bMiller031]

If Foles continues to impress and Wentz becomes available via trade, what would we be comfortable giving up for him?

[Broncofan]

26 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

If Foles continues to impress and Wentz becomes available via trade, what would we be comfortable giving up for him?

Short of winning a 2nd SB, it's unlikely PHI is trading Wentz, for 1 simple reason - PHI is 14M over the cap for 2019, and keeping Foles would cost an extra 16M (20M salary vs. 4M dead money hit with a Wentz trade).   There's just no way around that type of hell (they are probably letting go of key pieces just to make the cap work, and not even trying to re-sign Golden Tate in FA).   It's why Mahomes starting in 2018 was a lock before anyone knew he'd be this good, same situation with KC & Alex Smith, leading to the early offseason trade to WAS.

And that's before you get into the career-trajectory Wentz is on, vs. Foles magic solely as a result of great scheming with Pederson (and frankly, he wasn't that great except for the LAR & HOU games this season - in the first 3 games and last 4 + playoffs, Foles has been mostly just OK, but man that D has come out to play after losing their 3 starting CB's, which is a surprise to say the least).  Or the likely bounceback Wentz is on once he's 18+ months from ACL recovery, when he regains full explosion in the knee.  It does show me how great Doug Pederson and Jim Schwartz are, though.   Tip my cap to them.

Wentz would absolutely be worth going after...but the cap realities says that's not happening, let alone the rational approach of projecting future performance.    Even with a 2nd SB win, it would be really hard.  But that's what it would take IMO even before PHI would think about it.  And even then, the cap #'s really lock PHI in.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Broncofan

[BroncosFan2010]

Honestly, the upcoming contract extension Wentz will be due and his injury history make it really hard for me to justify dealing the 3 R1 picks that he would command.

I would rather roll the dice on Daniel Jones at #10 and the five years of cost control that comes with him.

[bMiller031]

Kyler Murray declared for the NFL draft.  If nothing else, it increases the supply of R1-caliber QBs in the draft.  Certainly not a bad thing for Denver.

 

There's an old quote of Kingsbury saying that he'd draft Kyler Murray #1 in the draft if given the chance - which he now has.  I wish Elway was higher on Rosen.  Seems like a good opportunity to buy-low on Rosen if Kingsbury really is smitten with Murray. 

[Scoundrel]

Just now, bMiller031 said:

Kyler Murray declared for the NFL draft.  If nothing else, it increases the supply of R1-caliber QBs in the draft.  Certainly not a bad thing for Denver.

 

There's an old quote of Kingsbury saying that he'd draft Kyler Murray #1 in the draft if given the chance - which he now has.  I wish Elway was higher on Rosen.  Seems like a good opportunity to buy-low on Rosen if Kingsbury really is smitten with Murray. 

They aren’t trading Rosen. It was a quote while he was still a college coach. Don’t read into it. Cardinals aren’t taking Murray. 

[Royal_VT]

3 minutes ago, Counselor said:

They aren’t trading Rosen. It was a quote while he was still a college coach. Don’t read into it. Cardinals aren’t taking Murray. 

I hate this is the #1 story for the time being. There is basically a 0% chance of it happening, but everyone for clicks purposes is saying "well, it COULD happen!".

[jolly red giant]

20 minutes ago, Counselor said:

They aren’t trading Rosen. It was a quote while he was still a college coach. Don’t read into it. Cardinals aren’t taking Murray. 

What happens if the Cards take Murray with 2.33 ?

[Scoundrel]

Just now, jolly red giant said:

What happens if the Cards take Murray with 2.33 ?

They still aren’t trading Rosen. And I guarantee it won’t happen. They won’t damage the ego of their “franchise qb”

Edited January 10, 2019 by Counselor

[Scoundrel]

New England doesn’t let Murray leave the first.

[jolly red giant]

1 minute ago, Counselor said:

They still aren’t trading Rosen. And I guarantee it won’t happen. They won’t damage the ego of their “franchise qb”

They will if they decide that Murray is the 'franchise qb'

[thebestever6]

I think the Vangio hite makes it more likely Denver addresses qb round one. They aren't rebuilding as klis said on Twitter so they won't have a high enough pick for a qb next year.

[jolly red giant]

Just now, Counselor said:

New England doesn’t let Murray leave the first.

This I would expect to happen

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, Counselor said:

They still aren’t trading Rosen. And I guarantee it won’t happen. They won’t damage the ego of their “franchise qb”

Totally OT, but the real Q is if they stay at 1.1, or trade down for OL help and a mint in return.   SF, NYJ, OAK & TAM would kill for a Bosa like talent.  Josh Allen is the only other EDGE with an elite ceiling (but a much lower floor).   Bosa looks like a can't miss like his brother, even the injury isn't a long-term risk, it just spooked him enough to not risk the draft 1.1 pick.  Unless there's a problem at the Combine, he's so much a generational talent, the Cards would be crazy to pass on him - unless someone offered them a deal they couldn't pass up so they could address OL.   The only obstacle to moving down to 1.2 is helping a division rival - but the worry NYJ might miss out on Bosa/Allen for EDGE might push them to move up from 1.3 to 1.1. Or OAK, given they gave up Mack.  Or TAM, you get the idea.  You rarely see a move up to 1.1 for a non-QB, but generational EDGE is probably the one other position teams go nuts on, and the #2 - #5 teams all possibly passing on QB, but all who'd kill to have a generational EDGE, really creates a new dynamic we haven't seen, well, in forever.

FWIW, I would consider it a mild upset if ARI didn't spend 2 of their top 3 picks on OL, and if they trade down to get a big Day 1-2 return this year, 3 Day 1-2 picks on OL.   Their OL is that bad.   I don't think 4 of their 2018 starters (once Pugh went down) would even dress on gameday for most teams.   If they hired Kingsbury, upgrading the OL (and getting a 2nd weapon at WR to pair with Kirk, Fitz is really close to retiring) likely is priority 1, once they figure out what they are doing with 1.1 (Bosa vs. trade down).

Anyways, how does this affect DEN?   Well, if ARI takes Bosa, then I think we'll see a trade for 1.2 - 1.5 for Haskins.  I don't think Haskins will fall to 1.6.   Too many teams need QB and he's so above everyone else, someone will pay the price.  My $ is still on Gettleman doing what it takes to block us.    But if ARI trades down to get OL help, especially top 5, well, that only helps us, as I think T can be argued 1.10, but not at top 5.   One more elite guy to be available to us at 1.10.

 

16 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I think the Vangio hire makes it more likely Denver addresses qb round one. They aren't rebuilding as klis said on Twitter so they won't have a high enough pick for a qb next year.

I absolutely think we are taking QB - the issue is when.   Taking Kubiak as OC could also put us in the corner of getting a Rd 2-3 guy and "coaching him up".   Let's  face it, that's been Kubiak's MO.  You'd think they'd have learned, but it's certainly no lock we go QB 1.10 yet (yes, I just did that lol).    It's troubling that Lock is the one guy they went to see early on (with Herbert), and now the guy Klis & Paige are linking, but it's far from in the bag (although, yes, Lock at 1.10 is definitely kinda terrifying). 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Totally OT, but the real Q is if they stay at 1.1, or trade down for OL help and a mint in return.   SF, NYJ, OAK & TAM would kill for a Bosa like talent.  Josh Allen is the only other EDGE with an elite ceiling (but a much lower floor).   Bosa looks like a can't miss like his brother, even the injury isn't a long-term risk, it just spooked him enough to not risk the draft 1.1 pick.  Unless there's a problem at the Combine, he's so much a generational talent, the Cards would be crazy to pass on him - unless someone offered them a deal they couldn't pass up so they could address OL.

FWIW, I would consider it a mild upset if ARI didn't spend 2 of their top 3 picks on OL, and if they trade down to get a big Day 1-2 return this year, 3 Day 1-2 picks on OL.   Their OL is that bad.   I don't think 4 of their starters (once Pugh went down) would even dress on gameday on most teams.   If they hired Kingsbury, upgrading the OL (and getting a 2nd weapon at WR to pair with Kirk, Fitz is really close to retiring) likely is priority 1, once they figure out what they are doing with 1.1 (Bosa vs. trade down).

Anyways, how does this affect DEN?   Well, if ARI takes Bosa, then I think we'll see a trade for 1.2 - 1.5 for Haskins.  I don't think Haskins will fall to 1.6.   Too many teams need QB and he's so above everyone else, someone will pay the price.  My $ is still on Gettleman doing what it takes to block us.    But if ARI trades down to get OL help, especially top 5, well, that only helps us, as I think T can be argued 1.10, but not at top 5.   One more elite guy to be available to us at 1.10.

 

I absolutely think we are taking QB - the issue is when.   Taking Kubiak as OC could also put us in the corner of getting a Rd 2-3 guy and "coaching him up".   Let's  face it, that's been Kubiak's MO.  You'd think they'd have learned, but it's certainly no lock we go QB 1.10 yet (yes, I just did that lol).    It's troubling that Lock is the one guy they went to see early on (with Herbert), and now the guy Klis & Paige are linking, but it's far from in the bag (although, yes, Lock at 1.10 is definitely kinda terrifying). 

My dream said it was Grier. It’s going to be Grier. Hopefully in the second not the first.