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2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

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@Counselor  I guess the question for me is, what does Haskins do that is so much better than Jones, or even Herbert?

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11 hours ago, germ-x said:

@Counselor  I guess the question for me is, what does Haskins do that is so much better than Jones, or even Herbert?

70% completion rate.  I was speaking with one of my coworkers who went to OSU and watches every game.  He said Haskins has that rate with a bad OL...sound familiar.  

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I know there's been a lot of talk about Herbert staying - but I would be stunned if he doesn't enter the draft. He has so much to lose by staying another year and so little to gain. He's a consensus top 10 pick in a QB weak draft. That can't be improved upon. 

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Watched all 3 of the top QBs today (Herbert, Haskins, Jones), had a road trip back from Thanksgiving and didn’t have to drive.

I honestly like all 3 and wouldn’t complain about taking any of the 3 where Denver will be picking in round 1.

Each has their own strengths and weaknesses, but all 3 have franchise level upside.

Herbert, physically is the total package.  Physical talent wise is as gifted or more so than Paxton Lynch (I know Lynch sucked, but it wasn’t because of a lack of talent).  Herbert has elite size and mobility for the position.  Arm strength wise he isn’t Rodgers/Mahomes, but he can make any NFL throw.  He also shows the ability to use touch (something Lynch lacked) and has a terrific deep ball.  Though, his offense and ability to process quickly is questionable, not that he can’t do it, but Oregon has guys running open all game long and everything he does is dictated from the sideline.  He also seems to get happy feet in the pocket if it isn’t clean.

Haskins has an NFL body.  Big and thick capable of holding up in the NFL.  He’s probably the best pocket passer in the group and possesses the strongest arm (not Rodgers/Mahomes strong either).  He understands how to elude pressure even though he isn’t the most athletic guy.  He isn’t Manning/Rivers immobile though, he has enough athleticism to hurt you if he needs to.  Stands strong in the pocket and will take a shot to deliver the ball and does so accurately.  Hate the Urban Meyer system though, has it ever produced a decent NFL QB?  Haskins is a different player though and appears to have the arm talent/aptitude to succeed in the pocket in the NFL.

Daniel Jones is almost the mix of Herbert/Haskins.  He lacks the arm talent of both (but can make every throw) but is an equally as good runner as Herbert.  He also stands in the pocket and completes passes with anticipation and accuracy.  Like Haskins, he has an innate ability to maneuver around the pocket to avoid pressure.  

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Just an opinion but I don't think there's any way Denver will even consider a QB with our 1st draft choice.

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2 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Just an opinion but I don't think there's any way Denver will even consider a QB with our 1st draft choice.

IMO, that’d be a mistake or at least shouldn’t be the norm.  Playing QB roulette leaves you looking like Denver has since Manning left.

 

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26 minutes ago, germ-x said:

IMO, that’d be a mistake or at least shouldn’t be the norm.  Playing QB roulette leaves you looking like Denver has since Manning left.

 

There's a flip side, drafting a QBOTF and resigning him leaves you looking like Detroit, Cin, GB, Bal, Sea....................

GB, Sea and Bal lucked out and got their rings with a QB on a cheap deal. Haven't done squat since. They can't afford to.

I just don't think you can build a team around a QB anymore. If you're lucky you can draft one onto a good team and win a ring or two on their rookie deals. After that you're done. The cap hit and commitment required to re-sign them is prohibitive to building a solid roster at the other 21 starting positions, let alone depth.

 

 

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5 hours ago, AKRNA said:

There's a flip side, drafting a QBOTF and resigning him leaves you looking like Detroit, Cin, GB, Bal, Sea....................

GB, Sea and Bal lucked out and got their rings with a QB on a cheap deal. Haven't done squat since. They can't afford to.

I just don't think you can build a team around a QB anymore. If you're lucky you can draft one onto a good team and win a ring or two on their rookie deals. After that you're done. The cap hit and commitment required to re-sign them is prohibitive to building a solid roster at the other 21 starting positions, let alone depth.

 

 

But you’re going to have to spend money on a QB regardless, at some point.  Any QBs worth their salt that hit FA go for major $$$, any QB that’s drafted worth their salt gets paid at the end of their rookie contract.

It’s just not a position you revolve every 3-5 years and expect to be successful.  It’s literally the hardest position to play in all of sports.  When you get your guy you pay them.  

 

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^^^ To go along with the above.  Alex Smith who is 33 and has never won a playoff game and is nothing more than a good game manger signed a 4 year $94M contract with $71M guaranteed.

There just isn’t a cheap way to go about the QB position if you want even an average one.

I guess the only cheap way would be drafting a QB hoping they turn out to be at minimum average and then letting them walk after 4-5 years so you don’t have to give them a huge contract.  While far cheaper, you’re going to have to hit on drafting QBs at an unprecedented rate for it to translate into long term success and likely means spending higher picks on QBs pretty regularly.

Further, as a GM/HC that sounds like a recipe to get yourself fired.  Imagine the backlash if you had a franchise level QB (which would also mean they’re the face of the franchise) in his mid to late 20s that you chose not to pay?  I can’t see any owner getting behind that no matter how well it was pitched.

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23 minutes ago, germ-x said:

^^^ To go along with the above.  Alex Smith who is 33 and has never won a playoff game and is nothing more than a good game manger signed a 4 year $94M contract with $71M guaranteed.

There just isn’t a cheap way to go about the QB position if you want even an average one.

I guess the only cheap way would be drafting a QB hoping they turn out to be at minimum average and then letting them walk after 4-5 years so you don’t have to give them a huge contract.  While far cheaper, you’re going to have to hit on drafting QBs at an unprecedented rate for it to translate into long term success and likely means spending higher picks on QBs pretty regularly.

Further, as a GM/HC that sounds like a recipe to get yourself fired.  Imagine the backlash if you had a franchise level QB (which would also mean they’re the face of the franchise) in his mid to late 20s that you chose not to pay?  I can’t see any owner getting behind that no matter how well it was pitched.

Yeah it's just not feasible.  It's not exactly the same but there's no way Denver could avoid paying Von after the SB.  Paying guys who've earned it makes the franchise a destination players want to go to.  

And while yes, high dollar QBs haven't won SBs, I think a market correction will happen for QB contracts rather than teams churning through cheap QB's trying to capture the magic time and time again 

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44 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Yeah it's just not feasible.  It's not exactly the same but there's no way Denver could avoid paying Von after the SB.  Paying guys who've earned it makes the franchise a destination players want to go to.  

And while yes, high dollar QBs haven't won SBs, I think a market correction will happen for QB contracts rather than teams churning through cheap QB's trying to capture the magic time and time again 

It has to happen and I think very soon. Lots of average to good QB's are going to start being available. Good chance the top two draft picks from 2015 will be available in 2020 along with a slew of other QB's including Ben, Brees, Rivers, Prescott...............

Are you really going to tie your franchise to Prescott, Mariotta or Winston by resigning them for a fortune or letting them hit FA.

4 hours ago, germ-x said:

But you’re going to have to spend money on a QB regardless, at some point.  Any QBs worth their salt that hit FA go for major $$$, any QB that’s drafted worth their salt gets paid at the end of their rookie contract.

It’s just not a position you revolve every 3-5 years and expect to be successful.  It’s literally the hardest position to play in all of sports.  When you get your guy you pay them.  

 

At some point you do. Like we did with PM on a short term deal after we'd built a roster. If we follow that pattern we look for the same magic in 2020 with one of the many FA's that will be there.

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20 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

It has to happen and I think very soon. Lots of average to good QB's are going to start being available. Good chance the top two draft picks from 2015 will be available in 2020 along with a slew of other QB's including Ben, Brees, Rivers, Prescott...............

Are you really going to tie your franchise to Prescott, Mariotta or Winston by resigning them for a fortune or letting them hit FA.

At some point you do. Like we did with PM on a short term deal after we'd built a roster. If we follow that pattern we look for the same magic in 2020 with one of the many FA's that will be there.

I think given the off-the-field problems and his is extreme inconsistency it's relatively easy for Tampa to move on from Winston. The other two, however, I think do ultimately get long-term deals in their current cities. 

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1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I think given the off-the-field problems and his is extreme inconsistency it's relatively easy for Tampa to move on from Winston. The other two, however, I think do ultimately get long-term deals in their current cities. 

Maybe, but I think it will depend on the players willingness to take a very team friendly deal. No way should a GM sign any of them to a $20+ million annually, long term contract. Starting in 2020 there are a lot of very capable QB's hitting FA every year. Lots will either sign cheap deals or go unsigned, it's just basic finance, supply and demand.

I think the financial compensation pendulum has swung as far as it can. I look for it to start coming back to a reasonable level.

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24 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Maybe, but I think it will depend on the players willingness to take a very team friendly deal. No way should a GM sign any of them to a $20+ million annually, long term contract. Starting in 2020 there are a lot of very capable QB's hitting FA every year. Lots will either sign cheap deals or go unsigned, it's just basic finance, supply and demand.

I think the financial compensation pendulum has swung as far as it can. I look for it to start coming back to a reasonable level.

By cheap deal, what do you mean?

Case Keenum just signed for $18M annually and isn’t as talented or had the track record of any of the QBs you’ve mentioned.

For comparison purposes (not including QBs on rookie contracts) probably the most productive QB on the cheapest deal is Andy Dalton, and he’s still making $16M average annually.  Case Keenum at $18M is on the low end for a 2nd+ contract NFL starter.  Hell, Josh McCown signed for $10M to be a back up.  The Browns paid Tyrod Taylor $15M knowing full well they were selecting Mayfield at 1 overall.

There isn’t such a thing as a cheap deal for a solid NFL starter.  I guess you can get a “cheaper” deal, but you better be setting aside about $18M, even for an average NFL starter.

Edited by germ-x

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