2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

By cheap deal, what do you mean?

Case Keenum just signed for $18M annually and isn’t as talented or had the track record of any of the QBs you’ve mentioned.

For comparison purposes (not including QBs on rookie contracts) probably the most productive QB on the cheapest deal is Andy Dalton, and he’s still making $16M average annually.  Case Keenum at $18M is on the low end for a 2nd+ contract NFL starter.  Hell, Josh McCown signed for $10M to be a back up.  The Browns paid Tyrod Taylor $15M knowing full well they were selecting Mayfield at 1 overall.

There isn’t such a thing as a cheap deal for a solid NFL starter.  I guess you can get a “cheaper” deal, but you better be setting aside about $18M, even for an average NFL starter.

I guess you missed the part about the pendulum. IMO it's swung as high as it can as far as FA compensation and higher than it should have. Thats the way with pendulums.

I think any single contract that exceeds 8--9% of the salary cap is excessive and sustainable only to the detriment of the team overall. 

The NFL's popularity is declining, the product is becoming unrecognizable as the NFL, more closely resembling the college game. Why pay to watch an NFL game when college is just as entertaining.

Part of being a fan should be following your favorite players, and having a pretty good idea year to year who your starters are. That has disappeared. The quality of the game has really gone down. Much of that due to union rules severely limiting practice times, OTA's, etc. If you could maintain a roster year to year lack of practice time wouldn't be such a big deal. As it is, the first four games of the season are when teams start to came together, not during preseason.

Enough of my rant. We overpayed for Case, but nowhere near as bad as the Vikings did for Cousins. 

 

[germ-x]

4 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

I guess you missed the part about the pendulum. IMO it's swung as high as it can as far as FA compensation and higher than it should have. Thats the way with pendulums.

I think any single contract that exceeds 8--9% of the salary cap is excessive and sustainable only to the detriment of the team overall. 

The NFL's popularity is declining, the product is becoming unrecognizable as the NFL, more closely resembling the college game. Why pay to watch an NFL game when college is just as entertaining.

Part of being a fan should be following your favorite players, and having a pretty good idea year to year who your starters are. That has disappeared. The quality of the game has really gone down. Much of that due to union rules severely limiting practice times, OTA's, etc. If you could maintain a roster year to year lack of practice time wouldn't be such a big deal. As it is, the first four games of the season are when teams start to came together, not during preseason.

Enough of my rant. We overpayed for Case, but nowhere near as bad as the Vikings did for Cousins. 

 

I guess the hole I see in this is that even if QB pay freezes or even goes down then it will happen at every position league wide.  QBs drive the NFL and it doesn’t appear that’s changing any time soon.  

So for example, if the league is suffering financially and teams aren’t able to pay as much 10 years from now, QBs will still be the highest paid players in the game and won’t be the only position that suffers financially. Their contracts will still be taking up that 8% of the teams salary cap whether the highest paid QB is making $40M annually or $18M annually.

Who knows, though.

[AKRNA]

15 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I guess the hole I see in this is that even if QB pay freezes or even goes down then it will happen at every position league wide.  QBs drive the NFL and it doesn’t appear that’s changing any time soon.  

So for example, if the league is suffering financially and teams aren’t able to pay as much 10 years from now, QBs will still be the highest paid players in the game and won’t be the only position that suffers financially. Their contracts will still be taking up that 8% of the teams salary cap whether the highest paid QB is making $40M annually or $18M annually.

Who knows, though.

Absolutely! It's not just QB's, they're just the poster children with some making near 15% of the cap. Thats the number the concerns me, not the dollars. 

IMO the Garrapolo and Cousins contracts will haunt those teams for years. What exactly had either one done to be top five paid QB's? Rodgers and Ryan are obviously top QB's but can their teams really handle $30 million dollar men? Their teams records would indicate that they can't.

Anyway, the next few years should sort it out.

 

[thebestever6]

3 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Absolutely! It's not just QB's, they're just the poster children with some making near 15% of the cap. Thats the number the concerns me, not the dollars. 

IMO the Garrapolo and Cousins contracts will haunt those teams for years. What exactly had either one done to be top five paid QB's? Rodgers and Ryan are obviously top QB's but can their teams really handle $30 million dollar men? Their teams records would indicate that they can't.

Anyway, the next few years should sort it out.

 

The packers have had some heartbreaking losses due to Clay Mathews calls the first couple of games. The leagues being a lot more strict on that the first weeks of the years really ruined the Packers season.

[Broncofan]

On 11/23/2018 at 3:19 PM, AKRNA said:

 

Enough of my rant. We overpayed for Case, but nowhere near as bad as the Vikings did for Cousins. 

 

I'm sorry, but this is a completely inaccurate assessment - MIN's OL got ravaged by injuries - so instead of being a top 10 OL - they are actually a bottom 5 unit in run-blocking and middle-of-pack in pass pro (as opposed to top 8 until in 2017 by DVOA).  And because the Pack upgraded the pass D, and CHI suddenly became an elite D, and MIN playing a 1st place schedule in 2018, the Vikes went from facing the 2nd-easiest pass D schedule for QB's in 2017 (as CHI/DET/GB had bottom 5 pass D's vs. QB's for 6 games), to now facing what will likely end up being a top-10 hardest schedule for QB's.   

2017 had one of the easiest setups ever for a QB to succeed - but MIN's interior OL injuries, and the change in the opposition faced (from cupcake to facing really good pass D's as a 1st place team and GB/CHI actually becoming good & great against the pass), 2018 has put MIN in a really tough QB schedule.  And Cousins has actually performed very well.   

Cousins is actually keeping the Vikes in the season, and he's playing great football.   He's a huge asset to their future and contention for 2019-20.    For 10M more a year, it's a complete no-brainer to have had him on our team.   He just didn't want to be on our team, and chose MIN instead.    There's a clear reason why Elway was hard on Cousins as plan A.  We just got the booby prize as consolation.

I mean, don't take my word for it - take the word of the site you cite for how our guys are doing (and while their system has flaws in simply using overall rating, they still provide great in-depth analysis when they go beyond the simple #'s - here' another example) - https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-kirk-cousins-red-zone-transformation (and note it's not just the RZ, it's overall great play they are seeing from Cousins).

If we had acquired Cousins at 3/84M, instead of 2/36M for Keenum, we'd be much better off for 2019-20.   We'd be better off if we could find a cheap great QB...but unless we hit in the draft, well, we all know the score.   We're still nowhere close to ready yet to be legit contenders even with a QB, but Cousins would have us a lot closer than saving $ with awful play from Keenum.

Either way, though, it's moot - so here we are, with the need to find QB in 2019.  Oh well.

[Broncofan]

Sidebar - Tank for Tua is going to be nuts in 2020.   Add in Fromm & Eason and the unknown status of Haskins possible return that class looks very appealing.  Just our luck sigh.  

[AKRNA]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I'm sorry, but this is a completely inaccurate assessment - MIN's OL got ravaged by injuries - so instead of being a top 10 OL - they are actually a bottom 5 unit in run-blocking and middle-of-pack in pass pro (as opposed to top 8 until in 2017 by DVOA).  And because the Pack upgraded the pass D, and CHI suddenly became an elite D, and MIN playing a 1st place schedule in 2018, the Vikes went from facing the 2nd-easiest pass D schedule for QB's in 2017 (as CHI/DET/GB had bottom 5 pass D's vs. QB's for 6 games), to now facing what will likely end up being a top-10 hardest schedule for QB's.   

2017 had one of the easiest setups ever for a QB to succeed - but MIN's interior OL injuries, and the change in the opposition faced (from cupcake to facing really good pass D's as a 1st place team and GB/CHI actually becoming good & great against the pass), 2018 has put MIN in a really tough QB schedule.  And Cousins has actually performed very well.   

Cousins is actually keeping the Vikes in the season, and he's playing great football.   He's a huge asset to their future and contention for 2019-20.    For 10M more a year, it's a complete no-brainer to have had him on our team.   He just didn't want to be on our team, and chose MIN instead.    There's a clear reason why Elway was hard on Cousins as plan A.  We just got the booby prize as consolation.

I mean, don't take my word for it - take the word of the site you cite for how our guys are doing (and while their system has flaws in simply using overall rating, they still provide great in-depth analysis when they go beyond the simple #'s - here' another example) - https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-kirk-cousins-red-zone-transformation (and note it's not just the RZ, it's overall great play they are seeing from Cousins).

If we had acquired Cousins at 3/84M, instead of 2/36M for Keenum, we'd be much better off for 2019-20.   We'd be better off if we could find a cheap great QB...but unless we hit in the draft, well, we all know the score.   We're still nowhere close to ready yet to be legit contenders even with a QB, but Cousins would have us a lot closer than saving $ with awful play from Keenum.

Either way, though, it's moot - so here we are, with the need to find QB in 2019.  Oh well.

What site is that?

Also, Cousins is the perfect poster boy for a mercenary QB. Have gun will travel to whoever pays him the most. Yup we could have rented him for 3 years for $28 mil per, 100% guaranteed (actually we probably would have had to give him an extra mil or two), then back to sq 1 in 2021.

The Vikings are so all in with their roster and only have another 2 years at best for a ring. In 2021 he's a UFA and the Vikings are committed to $121 million for just 15 guys. Time then for Cousins to move on again. 

[Broncofan]

@AKRNA - PFF - that's the link....

Anyways, back to present thread topic - with our 2 W's, we now go from a top 10 pick, to a likely mid-high teens draft spot with a .500+ record.   We also can probably point to 4 other teams that will pick ahead of us (or right there with us) who will be desperate for QB:

NYG (duh)

OAK (Gruden has called out Carr again last week - that's not the line of a HC backing their QB, with 3 1st rounders, I suspect we'll see Gruden use the last 2 to move up and get "his guy", they'll get a premium pass rush / front 7 force as long as they end up top 3-4 - even if it's not Bosa, or the mercurial Ed Oliver, so many elite DL/EDGE's this year).

JAX (no explanation really needed...and no salary cap room, and Bortles costs 16.5M to cut, and can only save 4.5M - so draft is only way to find help, barring trade, but who's going to take that on?)

WAS (the Alex Smith injury is one with a 10-12 month recovery - and even with elite athletes, there is NO guarantee he will be able to play at the same level again - that injury is so bad on return to peak function).    

Only WAS has a better record than we do - but if anyone's seen their games, with Smith out (as meh as he's been, Colt McCoy is that much worse) and 2 starters out on OL (and Trent Williams trying to play with bruised ribs and a broken thumb, nowhere near his usual self), finishing at or below us seems very likely.   JAX, OAK & NYG are obvious locks to finish below us (but I do think OAK would be using the DAL/CHI picks in combination to move ahead of us, doubt they'd use the early pick on QB if they can get their generational D player and still get the QB later in Rd1).  

It would a major upset if 2 of those teams didn't take QB...and right now, I'd say odds are 3 of those 4 would, but let's leave it at 2 guys ahead of us minimum, and 3 is a maybe.   Carr would be available via trade presumably, but I don't see NYG seeing him as the answer, and JAX/WAS don't have the cap room to get him.  The same applies to why they likely won't be able to chase a Teddy B (and if he continues to play as he did this week, TAM is clearly sticking with Winston for his year 5 option).   

So.....the more the season unfolds, the more likely we might find ourselves having to choose the 3rd/4th QB on the Big Board in Rd1.   Given that....I think it actually increases our chances we only dive in with a "project" type Rd3-4 pick.   Which I'm fine with, if it avoids us reaching so badly that we end up then being pot-committed and bypass a much, much deeper 2020 draft (while I have major reservations about Haskins declaring in 2019, if he waited 1 more year to declare, we'd have a much better idea on his NFL projectibility - and he might still only be the 4th QB in that class, before we get late-2018 / early 2019 breakouts entering the 2020 draft mix).  

[AKRNA]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

@AKRNA - PFF - that's the link....

 

Okay, I told you I've never referenced that. I think I've only visited that site once or twice. You've got me confused with someone else.

[broncofan48]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

@AKRNA - PFF - that's the link....

Anyways, back to present thread topic - with our 2 W's, we now go from a top 10 pick, to a likely mid-high teens draft spot with a .500+ record.   We also can probably point to 4 other teams that will pick ahead of us (or right there with us) who will be desperate for QB:

NYG (duh)

OAK (Gruden has called out Carr again last week - that's not the line of a HC backing their QB, with 3 1st rounders, I suspect we'll see Gruden use the last 2 to move up and get "his guy", they'll get a premium pass rush / front 7 force as long as they end up top 3-4 - even if it's not Bosa, or the mercurial Ed Oliver, so many elite DL/EDGE's this year).

JAX (no explanation really needed...and no salary cap room, and Bortles costs 16.5M to cut, and can only save 4.5M - so draft is only way to find help, barring trade, but who's going to take that on?)

WAS (the Alex Smith injury is one with a 10-12 month recovery - and even with elite athletes, there is NO guarantee he will be able to play at the same level again - that injury is so bad on return to peak function).    

Only WAS has a better record than we do - but if anyone's seen their games, with 2 starters out on OL (and Trent Williams trying to play with bruised ribs and a broken thumb, nowhere near his usual self), finishing at or below us seems very likely.   JAX, OAK & NYG are obvious locks to finish below us (but I do think OAK would be using the DAL/CHI picks in combination to move ahead of us, doubt they'd use the early pick on QB if they can get their generational D player and still get the QB later in Rd1).  

It would a major upset if 2 of those teams didn't take QB...and right now, I'd say odds are 3 of those 4 would, but let's leave it at 2 guys ahead of us minimum, and 3 is a maybe.   Carr would be available via trade presumably, but I don't see NYG seeing him as the answer, and JAX/WAS don't have the cap room to get him.  The same applies to why they likely won't be able to chase a Teddy B (and if he continues to play as he did this week, TAM is clearly sticking with Winston for his year 5 option).   

So.....the more the season unfolds, the more likely we might find ourselves having to choose the 3rd/4th QB on the Big Board in Rd1.   Given that....I think it actually increases our chances we only dive in with a "project" type Rd3-4 pick.   Which I'm fine with, if it avoids us reaching so badly that we end up then being pot-committed and bypass a much, much deeper 2020 draft (while I have major reservations about Haskins declaring in 2019, if he waited 1 more year to declare, we'd have a much better idea on his NFL projectibility - and he might still only be the 4th QB in that class, before we get late-2018 / early 2019 breakouts entering the 2020 draft mix).  

If Carr is let go and Bill Musgraves is still on the staff here I would put money that Carr gets an incentive laden deal from Denver.  I personally would rather draft a QB, I really like Haskins even with the risk, but just guessing what Elway will do.

 

Derek Carr will at least be competing for a starting job in the NFL next year, and I could very well see it be Denver.  And I think Teddy B stays in NO, but could be wrong there

[Broncofan]

29 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

If Carr is let go and Bill Musgraves is still on the staff here I would put money that Carr gets an incentive laden deal from Denver.  I personally would rather draft a QB, I really like Haskins even with the risk, but just guessing what Elway will do.

 

Derek Carr will at least be competing for a starting job in the NFL next year, and I could very well see it be Denver.  And I think Teddy B stays in NO, but could be wrong there

I do agree Carr's going to be starting somewhere - just impossible to predict where he goes.  What seems VERY unlikely is those 3 teams above going for Carr (OAK duh) - NYG can get the top QB of the class, and JAX/WAS just don't have the cap room to make that work.   The main obstacle I see to DEN going for Carr besides the intra-division how-much-do-you-help-other-guy Q, is that laying out 21M for Keenum and 20M for Carr is just not realistic at all.

Re: Haskins, at this stage, I'm not even sure he will declare, so it may be a moot point.  If OSU doesn't make it to the BCS, the lure of "unfinished business" there will be strong.    And if I were to guess, even if he were to declare, he would seem to be the #2 guy taken (if not the 1st).   As things stand, it's hard to see a guy like him even in our range.  

 

[broncofan48]

15 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I do agree Carr's going to be starting somewhere - just impossible to predict where he goes.  What seems VERY unlikely is those 3 teams above going for Carr (OAK duh) - NYG can get the top QB of the class, and JAX/WAS just don't have the cap room to make that work.   The main obstacle I see to DEN going for Carr besides the intra-division how-much-do-you-help-other-guy Q, is that laying out 21M for Keenum and 20M for Carr is just not realistic at all.

Re: Haskins, at this stage, I'm not even sure he will declare, so it may be a moot point.  If OSU doesn't make it to the BCS, the lure of "unfinished business" there will be strong.    And if I were to guess, even if he were to declare, he would seem to be the #2 guy taken (if not the 1st).   As things stand, it's hard to see a guy like him even in our range.  

 

I agree OAK, NYG, and JAX are probably a no go as far as Carr.  That leaves us, TB (what happens with Winston?) & maybe MIA, to compete for Carr's services.  I don't see a bidding war developing in that scenario, Gruden might have to straight up cut Carr.  Which leaves a team friendly deal with incentives as Carr's best option

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

I agree OAK, NYG, and JAX are probably a no go as far as Carr.  That leaves us, TB (what happens with Winston?) & maybe MIA, to compete for Carr's services.  I don't see a bidding war developing in that scenario, Gruden might have to straight up cut Carr.  Which leaves a team friendly deal with incentives as Carr's best option

Given the contract he's signed to (literally a bunch of 20M, 1-year deals teams can walk away from) - I fully expect Gruden will be able to trade him over cutting him.  I would be surprised if he got more than a 3rd-4th round pick for him, though.   Gruden's done a wonderful job of tanking his value (I mean that with no sarcasm, Carr looks like a shell of himself out there).   He absolutely looks shell-shocked and has turned into Captain Checkdown - even when there isn't pressure, you see him start to bail and pull the plug.   

MIA is the one team I think could overpay.  I mean, GM Tannebaum actually initially agreed to trade their starting T Juwan James to Elway....for CJ Anderson, and a Day 2 same-round pick swap (to their benefit, IIRC).   Before someone in that FO probably woke him up from the brain-dead coma that could only explain that deal as attractive to MIA lol.   I agree it shouldn't be this crazy all-out bidding war, but as there are literally no risks to Carr's present contract for a team acquiring him, and how QB-starved teams are, I don't think we'll see a cut, as long as the price in draft picks isn't prohibitive.  And not the crazy return ppl are talking about (a 1st is a massive, massive overpay for him).

[paul-mac]

Keenum will be $21m against the cap or $10m dead money if we cut him.

Stick or twist? Twist option is likely Bortles or Winston

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

Keenum will be $21m against the cap or $10m dead money if we cut him.

Stick or twist? Twist option is likely Bortles or Winston

Given how much the Glazers support Winston I don’t see him leaving Tampa.  Not until after 2019.   They are in the same boat as we are (but with a guy who actually has some ceiling, so either Winston is their long term answer or he’s their stopgap until 2020). 

Bortles - ugh.   That’s an easy pass.