2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[BroncoBruin]

Whoops - wrong thread 

[BroncosFan2010]

There is no way that we can walk away from this draft without taking a QB in rounds 1-3. I would bet good money on it. Hopefully we simply do BPA in R1 then take a developmental QB in R2. But the talent is pretty sparse.

Right now I am hoping for something like:

1. DeAndre Baker CB - Georgia

2. Daniel Jones QB - Duke

3. Prince Tega Wanogho OT - Auburn

[germ-x]

34 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

There is no way that we can walk away from this draft without taking a QB in rounds 1-3. I would bet good money on it. Hopefully we simply do BPA in R1 then take a developmental QB in R2. But the talent is pretty sparse.

Right now I am hoping for something like:

1. DeAndre Baker CB - Georgia

2. Daniel Jones QB - Duke

3. Prince Tega Wanogho OT - Auburn

I would be thrilled with that type of draft. Baker and Jones are 2 of my favorite prospects in this draft. 

[champ11]

1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

There is no way that we can walk away from this draft without taking a QB in rounds 1-3. I would bet good money on it. Hopefully we simply do BPA in R1 then take a developmental QB in R2. But the talent is pretty sparse.

Right now I am hoping for something like:

1. DeAndre Baker CB - Georgia

2. Daniel Jones QB - Duke

3. Prince Tega Wanogho OT - Auburn

Yeah I think drafting a QB that we like early (2nd-4th) would be really smart even if he won't be QBOTF

[Broncofan]

On 11/27/2018 at 9:23 AM, BroncosFan2010 said:

There is no way that we can walk away from this draft without taking a QB in rounds 1-3. I would bet good money on it. Hopefully we simply do BPA in R1 then take a developmental QB in R2. But the talent is pretty sparse.

Right now I am hoping for something like:

1. DeAndre Baker CB - Georgia

2. Daniel Jones QB - Duke

3. Prince Tega Wanogho OT - Auburn

Baker Rd1 would be awesome.  Sadly it seems like Trey Adams is staying because of his injury so now what was a 3-T first round is down to 2, and the surefire top shelf talent to 1 T.   And I think he will go well before we pick.   When we were a top 12 pick with Williams / Adams I was pretty confident one would be there as BPA.   Now not so much. 

That definitely puts BPA into DL or CB.   Baker would be a huge upgrade.  

I don’t have a problem with Jones Rd2 but it really depends on who actually declares.  It’s possible both Haskins and Herbert stay (depends a lot on the shoulder injury - no news yet).   I think Herbert would be nuts to stay because he’s still likely the top QB taken this year.     But there’s too much noise to be dismissed.   But if even only 1 of those 2 guys stay in school, then need will likely force 3 guys to go Rd1 where they don’t really deserve it, including Jones.

Unless something dramatically changes Jones will fit right in with the Grier / Lock tier (none of whom I’d feel good about Rd1).   With NYG / OAK (who really seem set on parting ways with Carr) / WAS / JAX / MIA as teams who all are looking for QB and teams like NE / LAC thinking down the line I’d happy with Jones at the 45-50 spot.   But I don’t know that he will last that long if Herbert or Haskins stay in school.  

I do agree Elway can’t pass on the class altogether though.   Rd3 a guy like Thorson or even Montez would have a lot of appeal.   And again wouldn’t commit us to skipping 2020 (adding Herbert or Haskins to Tua / Fromm / Eason would really make 2020 a priority year). 

 

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

I do agree Elway can’t pass on the class altogether though.   Rd3 a guy like Thorson or even Montez would have a lot of appeal.   And again wouldn’t commit us to skipping 2020 (adding Herbert or Haskins to Tua / Fromm / Eason would really make 2020 a priority year). 

Taking a R2/R3 QB this upcoming draft does nothing to diminish my hopes we draft a QB in 2020. We need to throw darts at the board, which sucks because we have been doing that for years now (Case just happens to be a 22 million dollar dart). This carosel has to end sooner or later and taking a few guys is probably the best way to approach it.

Also, I think Montez is a R2 pick when all is said and done. Trailed off the second half of this season, and played in a QB friendly offense, but he has everything from a physical standpoint and unlike Paxton, doesnt seem like a dolt. Its also worth noting that CU has a putrid offensive line that did nothing to help Montez. I am a CU fan, so my eyes may be biased, but he looks like a great developmental guy. And these days developmental QB's go earlier than expected. I like Daniel Jones more since he is more advanced based on what his offense asked of him, but Montez is not that far behind.

I am extremley wary on Haskins. Guys in ideal conditions with ideal talent tend to put up ideal stats. I need to see him faced with adversity. How many times has he been put in a position to deliver a second level throw with a big hit imminent? Not many. Grier and Lock I simply have not watched enough to comment on, other than to say that Grier's frame and age scare me quite a bit. He has a Teddy'esque frame and isnt nearly as elusive as Teddy was, making it all the more troublesome.

[Broncofan]

48 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Taking a R2/R3 QB this upcoming draft does nothing to diminish my hopes we draft a QB in 2020. We need to throw darts at the board, which sucks because we have been doing that for years now (Case just happens to be a 22 million dollar dart). This carosel has to end sooner or later and taking a few guys is probably the best way to approach it.

Also, I think Montez is a R2 pick when all is said and done. Trailed off the second half of this season, and played in a QB friendly offense, but he has everything from a physical standpoint and unlike Paxton, doesnt seem like a dolt. Its also worth noting that CU has a putrid offensive line that did nothing to help Montez. I am a CU fan, so my eyes may be biased, but he looks like a great developmental guy. And these days developmental QB's go earlier than expected. I like Daniel Jones more since he is more advanced based on what his offense asked of him, but Montez is not that far behind.

I am extremley wary on Haskins. Guys in ideal conditions with ideal talent tend to put up ideal stats. I need to see him faced with adversity. How many times has he been put in a position to deliver a second level throw with a big hit imminent? Not many. Grier and Lock I simply have not watched enough to comment on, other than to say that Grier's frame and age scare me quite a bit. He has a Teddy'esque frame and isnt nearly as elusive as Teddy was, making it all the more troublesome.

Yeah, I think we are on the same page - but I do wonder how much a Rd2 pick discourages Elway from hitting on QB in 2020.   That's my only reason to say Rd3 - I don't want Elway to be locked out of 2020's class no matter how 2019 plays out (which is almost certainly the case if he goes QB Rd1).    I totally agree with the belief that you keep going at QB until you find something that sticks - just not Rd1 if you aren't sure of the guy, because of the commitment/price that's required.   I'm not sure that Elway views Rd2 as that disposable, though, which is why I favor the Rd3 result (i.e. less attached to guy to even think about passing on a 2020 class).

I'm a huge no on Haskins Rd1 this year for the reasons you cited - he's done so little with a top 3 team facing inferior competition on all but 1-2 games - and those games, he's struggled.  But his toolset is so high-ceiling, there is no way he's lasting until Rd2 with this year's class.   It's also a huge reason why I think he should wait a year to prove himself - he could easily be a top 5 pick next year if he can do this 2 years in a row, and facing elite competition at least 4-5 more games.   As it stands now, he's probably the 2nd or 3rd QB off the board behind Herbert and 1 of the 3 I mentioned.    A top 5 pick gets 27M-32M in guaranteed $ for his 4-year rookie deal, and the 5th year option is 20M+.   A top 12-15 pick gets 12-15M, and the 5th year option is only 13-14M last time I looked.  That's some serious cheddar, one of the few times that staying in school might make a player more $ than going a year early.  It's a very compelling reason for Haskins to stay, beyond the actual football development angle (which is more important in theory, but let's face it, $$ matters).

Grier I'm VERY wary about him being 24 now, and not being flat out dominant each game (yes, Big 12 #'s are great, but he's had 3-4 tough games - and at 24, that shouldn't be happening).   I do like him as a Rd2-3 guy - but if I were to guess, I think the draft goes Herbert-Haskins-Grier-Jones (or Jones-Grier), unless someone falls for the "tall guy, classic mold" in Lock.  So if Herbert and/or Haskins stay in school....I think it's very possible all of Jones/Grier/Lock go Rd1, and at least 2 of them ahead of us Rd1 to boot (which is a big no thanks for me).  I heard Elway went to see Lock, and I have to admit I'm worried to hear that - classic build & frame, strong arm - iffy accuracy, and facing good to great D's - totally fell apart.    If that's a Day 2 pick, OK...but most mocks have him Rd 1(pre-Combine and Senior Bowl, total crapshoot this year, but still Elway's going there with that knowledge, so Rd1 worry is still very much there) - again, a big no thanks.

Montez Rd2?  Given COL's slide this 2H of the season, I think he's going to have to light up the Senior Bowl & Combine - he's a redshirt Junior, so if he's on track to graduate, he'd be eligible.   If he does, yeah, I could see it.  But I would dearly love it if he was just a face in the crowd, and available Rd3.   He and Thorson are the 2 guys I'd be sorely tempted to wait until Rd3 on.   The thing is, once those 4-5 teams that need QB early take their guy, other than LAC/NE (I think NO is committed to the Taysom Hill future QB experiment), then I think it's very possible QB's in Day 2 slide to Rd 3.   Which would be best case (because hitting WR again, or hitting OL/DL Rd 2, there's talent there in BPA).    Of course, if his stock soars, then Rd2 it is.  

This class is nuts, because there is literally no one to feel great about Rd1 - Herbert was that guy for so long, but man, he's been so unimpressive the last 4-5 games.  And yeah, I know ORE is not a good team, but it's more the type of mistakes we're seeing from him.  I really thought we'd see more progression.  Now add in the shoulder injury, there's a real Q if he even declares.  IMO, that's a mistake if he's the clear top QB this year, he's never beating that next year.    But take him away, and I think it's better than 50/50 that Haskins stays, ESP if OSU doesn't get to play a BCS game (unfinished business, plus lure that he could become a top 5 pick next year - again, that's literally a 15-20M difference in earned income over rookie deal to go from low-mid teen's to top 5).  

I do want someone from the Jones/Montez/Thorson/Grier/Lock group - but not Rd1, and at this stage I'm not sure it's even worth Rd2 to separate someone from this bunch (and especially not if it means Elway won't dive in 2020 early if needed).    It's just such an implication of this group that we're nearly in December, and it's not clear who the top guys are.   That also means there's opportunity to get value - which is a rare statement when it comes to QB's.

[Scoundrel]

The Haskins against lower competition argument is so weak. Look at his mechanics, how he makes reads, his arm strength, his footwork. The kid has what you want from a QB. I don’t know his mental acumen and how he will pick up a system so I can’t speak to that. But he is QB one for me in this class and he would be Third for me in last years class. 

[Scoundrel]

If he is smart he enters this draft

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, Counselor said:

The Haskins against lower competition argument is so weak. Look at his mechanics, how he makes reads, his arm strength, his footwork. The kid has what you want from a QB. I don’t know his mental acumen and how he will pick up a system so I can’t speak to that. But he is QB one for me in this class and he would be Third for me in last years class. 

The problem of course, is if he's QB1-2 though - he's out of our range.    If we are picking behind NYG, OAK, JAX & WAS - there is no way 2 guys aren't going ahead of us.   If that draft order shakes out that WAS picks ahead of us, I wouldn't be shocked if 3 went, TBH.  The need is that bad with those teams.    I do agree he's likely the QB1-2 in this class, especially if he can play well in a BCS game (and it's only a question if Herbert declares - if he stays, then he's probably the top guy - he actually more of a sure bet as the top guy if NYG gets to pick and there's no Herbert) - it's just as much a reflection of how bad this class is, though, that it's not really that close.   If Herbert & Haskins declare, it would be a major upset if they weren't the top 2 guys gone, but there's always the chance 1 of the 3 enters up because he's a better system fit for the team looking at QB's (e.g. LAR going after Goff over Wentz).    If Herbert stays and Haskins declares, the same applies for Haskins being top overall (there, I don't see NYG passing on the physical talent guy, GM Gettleman wasn't afraid to take Cam in CAR).     

What's scary is that the lack of knowledge on his mental acumen, picking up a system, reading D's and going through progressions (as the 1st/2nd guy are usually open) - that's a total black box.   Which is scary to spend a 1st round pick on, regardless.   There is no doubt on his physical & throwing toolset, however.   Just that those mental skills matter so much.   And if OSU doesn't get to the BCS - we may not get another chance to see how those skills fare against a good to great D (as much as I don't want OSU in the BCS...again - have him face Clemson or 'Bama D, that would really add more info).

Still, we'd be better off if Haskins didn't enter, erased all doubts, and then he was there with Tua, Fromm & a much stronger 2020 QB draft class.   If we don't spend a 1st on a QB, that is.

[Scoundrel]

13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The problem of course, is if he's QB1-2 though - he's out of our range.    If we are picking behind NYG, OAK, JAX & WAS - there is no way 2 guys aren't going ahead of us.   If that draft order shakes out that WAS picks ahead of us, I wouldn't be shocked if 3 went, TBH.  The need is that bad with those teams.    I do agree he's likely the QB1-2 in this class, especially if he can play well in a BCS game (and it's only a question if Herbert declares - if he stays, then he's probably the top guy - he actually more of a sure bet as the top guy if NYG gets to pick and there's no Herbert) - it's just as much a reflection of how bad this class is, though, that it's not really that close.   If Herbert & Haskins declare, it would be a major upset if they weren't the top 2 guys gone, but there's always the chance 1 of the 3 enters up because he's a better system fit for the team looking at QB's (e.g. LAR going after Goff over Wentz).    If Herbert stays and Haskins declares, the same applies for Haskins being top overall (there, I don't see NYG passing on the physical talent guy, GM Gettleman wasn't afraid to take Cam in CAR).     

What's scary is that the lack of knowledge on his mental acumen, picking up a system, reading D's and going through progressions (as the 1st/2nd guy are usually open) - that's a total black box.   Which is scary to spend a 1st round pick on, regardless.   There is no doubt on his physical & throwing toolset, however.   Just that those mental skills matter so much.   And if OSU doesn't get to the BCS - we may not get another chance to see how those skills fare against a good to great D (as much as I don't want OSU in the BCS...again - have him face Clemson or 'Bama D, that would really add more info).

Still, we'd be better off if Haskins didn't enter, erased all doubts, and then he was there with Tua, Fromm & a much stronger 2020 QB draft class.   If we don't spend a 1st on a QB, that is.

Same thing was said on this site about Baker as far as reads and the offense. Good Scouting you can look past all that. And break it down the way I did with Baker. I think so far Baker has proven me right. 

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Same thing was said on this site about Baker as far as reads and the offense. Good Scouting you can look past all that. And break it down the way I did with Baker. I think so far Baker has proven me right. 

Absolutely Baker's play so far has justified your support.  But Baker did have 3 years of film - OU's offense just didn't give us many opps.    I wasn't sold that he should go ahead of Darnold/Rosen, and I stick by my belief that those 2 will succeed barring injury - my concern was just that Baker wasn't going to be more than average because of his average physical skills.  But clearly so far, what we see says Baker has it.    What has separated Baker from being uncertain pre-draft is that we knew he had great accuracy and placement - but also is recognizing and reading D's and showing anticipation in tight windows (stuff we couldn't see because of OKL's O).   We know Baker has the skillset beyond physical skills - but it doesn't make the Q any less valid.   

As you said - you can't even speak to these processing skills, while you were 100 percent behind Baker's processing abilities before.     That's a pretty big diff.

Still, in this class....talent-wise overall you can't help but put him at the top with Herbert, and I can't even argue Herbert is the consensus #1 anymore.  He's been that unimpressive the last 4-5 games, and not just vs. better teams.   And then there's a HUUUUUGE gulf later.    But once NYG picks (and they seem locked in on Herbert), it's just a lot more uncertain who goes where, and how far back.   Another big year, though, and Haskins cements a top 5 pick.  I don't think that's anywhere close to certain right now.   The elite non-QB player pool is really impressive, which creates a very strong possibility if NYG goes Herbert, Haskins falls to the teens (even if he's a top 3 QB taken - that's a massive $$ difference). 

Put it this way - I'm actually hoping Haskins waits.  If he does, he gets 1 more year, and 4-5 more tough games, and then he's a great addition to an-already deep top-end 2020 pool we could hit hard.   And if he's all that, he will cement a top 5 pick (and I have no issues if it's us, although we'd likely have to move up then - but we'd probably have to move up now too, and that's a big no thx with the extra uncertainty).   If he declares, I'd be terrified as a team to take him as early as he'd need to go - but I also get in this class, on pure QB skills, he should go 1 or 2 (depending on how you feel about Herbert and if he declares) - but that uncertainty will no doubt create a lot of variance in how far he falls.  It's just that at our draft spot, it would be almost impossible to envision him there (as I really do think 3 QB's go before we even pick, which would be a blessing for our freedom to hit 2020).

[Scoundrel]

20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Absolutely Baker's play so far has justified your support.  But Baker did have 3 years of film - OU's offense just didn't give us many opps.    I wasn't sold that he should go ahead of Darnold/Rosen, and I stick by my belief that those 2 will succeed barring injury - my concern was just that Baker wasn't going to be more than average because of his average physical skills.  But clearly so far, what we see says Baker has it.    What has separated Baker from being uncertain pre-draft is that we knew he had great accuracy and placement - but also is recognizing and reading D's and showing anticipation in tight windows (stuff we couldn't see because of OKL's O).   We know Baker has the skillset beyond physical skills - but it doesn't make the Q any less valid.   

As you said - you can't even speak to these processing skills, while you were 100 percent behind Baker's processing abilities before.     That's a pretty big diff.

Still, in this class....talent-wise overall you can't help but put him at the top with Herbert, and I can't even argue Herbert is the consensus #1 anymore.  He's been that unimpressive the last 4-5 games, and not just vs. better teams.   And then there's a HUUUUUGE gulf later.    But once NYG picks (and they seem locked in on Herbert), it's just a lot more uncertain who goes where, and how far back.   Another big year, though, and Haskins cements a top 5 pick.  I don't think that's anywhere close to certain right now.   The elite non-QB player pool is really impressive, which creates a very strong possibility if NYG goes Herbert, Haskins falls to the teens (even if he's a top 3 QB taken - that's a massive $$ difference). 

Put it this way - I'm actually hoping Haskins waits.  If he does, he gets 1 more year, and 4-5 more tough games, and then he's a great addition to an-already deep top-end 2020 pool we could hit hard.   And if he's all that, he will cement a top 5 pick (and I have no issues if it's us, although we'd likely have to move up then - but we'd probably have to move up now too, and that's a big no thx with the extra uncertainty).   If he declares, I'd be terrified as a team to take him as early as he'd need to go - but I also get in this class, on pure QB skills, he should go 1 or 2 (depending on how you feel about Herbert and if he declares) - but that uncertainty will no doubt create a lot of variance in how far he falls.  It's just that at our draft spot, it would be almost impossible to envision him there (as I really do think 3 QB's go before we even pick, which would be a blessing for our freedom to hit 2020).

And that is why Haskins would be third for me in that class. Haskins is far above any QB in this class for me. And when I say mental acumen I’m not talking about reads. I’m talking about playbook and offensive scheme. I’ve seen Haskins hit his third and fourth read plenty to have confidence in his ability. I’ll try and dig up the examples in film when I have time. 

[Scoundrel]

Haskins torched the defense which had given up the fewest yards of total offense all season. The kid can game and he should be the top QB drafted. 

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, Counselor said:

And that is why Haskins would be third for me in that class. Haskins is far above any QB in this class for me. And when I say mental acumen I’m not talking about reads. I’m talking about playbook and offensive scheme. I’ve seen Haskins hit his third and fourth read plenty to have confidence in his ability. I’ll try and dig up the examples in film when I have time. 

Well, I'm kind of hoping we get even more film against great D's - I get your point that he can only do what he can do vs. the teams he faces - but it's just way more certain if he can do it over & over again under NFL-level pressure.   It's why if he waits for a year, he probably removes all doubt - and next year's class doesn't have the trench elite class this one does.   He'd be a surefire top 5 pick, the only Q is if he goes before or after Tua.   But either way, he's going top 5 if he plays this well again, and vs. BCS teams to boot.  He just may not get that chance this year.

I couldn't argue your take that he should be the #1 guy from this class - but man, people love them some Herbert.   I definitely was one of them entering 2018..but man, he's been so meh since September.  And he shouldn't be.   He's clearly safer than the rest of them, though.   

The issue of course, is how GM Gettleman feels.  He's not afraid to take a physical talent #1 on faith he'll get the rest (Cam 2011).   But he's also been locked in on Herbert for a while, by the beat reporters (apparently some believe that was part of his thinking for 2018 going Barkley 1.2 - if Eli didn't recover, they'll hit 2019 hard, and were OK with Herbert there. Of course, a lot has changed).  We'll see.