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2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

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42 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It’s the success at an early stage of their career.   Along with the possession of the most important physical passing skills (placement/accuracy, anticipation and ability to throw players open), that combo is the best predictor of future NFL success.   The 2020 class’ success so far predicts a banner year next year with still another year of development.   The 2019 guys are in college terms finished products and over the same stage of development weren’t nearly as successful as the 2018 or 2020 class entering their final season nor enjoyed the same growth as the 2018 class in their final year.

Herbert was only guy to have the same level of early success and maintain growth until a very meh mid-October stretch against average competition that’s really dropped his stock.  Everyone else this year has had big up and downs that really show the Q marks.  Grier is probably the only one who has a longer degree of success but he’s 24+ entering the NFL his struggles shouldn’t be as pronounced as they’ve been.  Basically everyone but Haskins has been very up and down in what should be their banner year (and Haskins only has this year to go off).   Add in a much shorter prior level of success before their final year and the label of a meh top end class for 2019 is well earned.  

I think the “early success” is over exaggerated, how do you even measure that?  Like what is considered successful?

This also doesn’t take into account any type of team play or talent around them.  For example, Jalen Hurts was successful as a freshman because he played on the best team in college football.  Further many (Oregon one of them) have every QB in their system have success because of the systems that they run.

Early success/system are moot, IMO.  It ultimately comes down to if you have at least above average arm talent, accuracy, and can quickly process information, the processing part being the most essential attribute.

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2 hours ago, germ-x said:

I think the “early success” is over exaggerated, how do you even measure that?  Like what is considered successful?

This also doesn’t take into account any type of team play or talent around them.  For example, Jalen Hurts was successful as a freshman because he played on the best team in college football.  Further many (Oregon one of them) have every QB in their system have success because of the systems that they run.

Early success/system are moot, IMO.  It ultimately comes down to if you have at least above average arm talent, accuracy, and can quickly process information, the processing part being the most essential attribute.

Absolutely 100 percent agreed you have to first own the pro skill set.  That's what disqualifies a guy like Hurts (and remember, I pointed out you have to own the key NFL-required skills first).   The early success is a very useful metric for positive predictive value, though, if it's combined with that very important prerequisite.  Different definitions, because let's face it, QB ratings are really meh at capturing QB play.   It's also important to factor in the competition faced.  In Tua/Fromm/Eason's case, though, playing so well against elite competition in their age-19 year, is a huge bonus.  So few do it that early.   For 2018, there were 4 guys though who checked the boxes easily - Darnold & Rosen super-young, Lamar & Baker later but still young enough to qualify.  And for 2020, another 4.   For 2019, only Herbert did.  Now Haskins is so young he checks that box, except for only having 1 year. 

Your argument about Herbert's flaws is valid and shows why it's not a perfect methodology.    And it's echoed by Herbert's struggles in what should have been a dominant final year against very average competition.   So, to be clear, it's not like 2020 is a lock - but especially if Haskins stays in school, we already have 4 guys entering 2020 where no one existed in 2019 save Herbert with the same prior success level - and as you said, against inferior competition and  a very college-QB-friendly-but-not-so-NFL-clear system.   To be clear, they also still need to excel in their final year to earn the franchise tag - just that as of now, they tick off a pretty special skill set box.  And that still leaves the possibility other later guys emerge to add to the depth of 2020.  2019 is basically all of the latter class of late comers minus Herbert (Haskins not having played significant snaps being the huge pop-up guy of course).

But by any measurement, the 2019 class is so meh at the top.  Don't believe in early success?  That's fine, but none of the guys except Grier really meets that.  But even with that removed, in their final year, none of the guys except Haskins were consistently dominant, and OMG all of the guys struggled hard against good D's and showed exploitable weaknesses, and in several cases, did that against just OK D's.   Which given it's their final year, is really alarming.  The 2018 class wasn't always perfect, but their overall performance and level of dominance their final year and displays of skill were far more consistent.  And that aforementioned success at very early age.   2020's class obviously needs to show their final year dominance, but they succeeded early, show the tools and QB-specific key skills, and faced elite competition when they did that (even more than 2018's). 

I mean, if QB evaluation was that easy, teams wouldn't be whiffing early so much lol.  It certainly doesn't disqualify guys outright. But it also gives a lot more comfort to spending such high draft capital.  Where we are likely to pick, it's safe to say no one will give the level of optimism that is normally warranted with Rd1 picks - more the squint & hope we had when Lynch got picked.    Given that if you whiff on a Rd1 pick, it kills an org for 3+ years...well, I get the lack of enthusiasm for this year's top end class (and that goes nuclear if Haskins decides to stay in school - that multiplies the chances several guys in the Grier/Jones / Lock  tier will already be gone, especially if WAS ends up picking ahead of us, which happens for sure if they are tied with us W-L wise, given our SoS is so far ahead of the other divisions).

Edited by Broncofan

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