2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[champ11]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Problem with the football assessment is that he's basically built himself as a baseball player frame/build-wise.   He gets away with it in college because the O the Sooners run and the protections in place.  Now the NFL protections in place are certainly very good for QB's - but the O's most teams run would definitely require him to put on more bulk that he's doing right now, or have insane NFL-level ability to avoid punishment.   He's 20 lbs lighter than either WIlson or Mayfield were leaving college.    Basically built to play CF, the lean, cut build.   The Combine is going to be huge for him, because stuff like hand size, his agility / explosion, ability to change arm angles with different throws, they're all going to matter.  

Wilson was able to break the mold for 3-4 very important reasons - huge paws, incredible arm strength, but most importantly, great pocket awareness & read ability, and topped it off with the ability to throw the ball at all different arm angles (a huge way to negate his shorter height).   Watson's average athletic traits were overcome by insane anticipation/placement and pocket awareness.    It's very true that size isn't needed to succeed as a QB nowadays - but there are key skills that come with the successful short (Wilson) / average athlete (Watson) QB's.    

One final comment I'd make - Elway's scouting of Drew Lock is pretty worrisome that he's not changing his MO yet.   Basically, Elway scouted 2 guys so far early in the season - Herbert & Lock.    Two tall, prototype-build, great-tools types, but in Lock's case, serious Q's about the actual football-ready QB skill set (at least Herbert showed off the NFL QB skills last year and for 5-6 weeks, then really crashed hard - don't blame him for wanting to stay in school, his mojo was all bad after Oct/Nov).

I think we have enough evidence to conclude that Elway cannot scout QBs. Three absolute swings and misses. Maybe Kubiak helps? But I will be down on any QB this FO regime is interested in. 

Them being extremely high on Mayfield is promising, though. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BaldyBronco said:

  God I hope this is the last season I go in to Week 17 HOPING we lose....

As much as I'd like it to be the case, if we don't find a long-term solution to QB, I suspect we have 1 more off-season of Week 17 Tankathon checking at minimum (more if Elway repeats a disaster Lynch-type reach in 2019).    It's hard to see a Week 1 2019 QB solution for us.   Ugh.

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I think we have enough evidence to conclude that Elway cannot scout QBs. Three absolute swings and misses. Maybe Kubiak helps? But I will be down on any QB this FO regime is interested in. 

Them being extremely high on Mayfield is promising, though. 

It's just discouraging that the first 2 guys Elway thinks to scout are the prototype tall-tools guys - at least Herbert displayed the NFL skillset (his Oct-Nov was just so disappointing, though).  Herbert was a no-brainer to be interested in.   But  Lock is exactly the kind of guy Elway falls for.   I'm not against that type at the right price....but at Rd1, ugh.     It's no secret how much I've been down on Elway's draft philosophy in Day 1-2 (esp Day 2) from past years - but I'd be the first to say his 2018 approach changed (and I did say that on Draft night lol).   That's a huge part to the hope of the org long-term.  I was hoping we'd see some of that different approach translate to QB evaluation.   So far, it's hard to see any evidence of that.

I'm dead serious where I kind of hope Elway signs the CFL kid (Bo Levi Mitchell).   I get that won't be the only investment, but just be different than big, tall, toolsy, but mostly-if-not-all projection draft pick.   Like you said, it's hard to put faith into Elway's evaluation skills there.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Broncofan

[BaldyBronco]

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, I hear that.   The problem with Murray's football assessment is that he's basically built himself as a baseball player frame/build-wise.   He gets away with it in college because the O the Sooners run and the protections in place.  Now the NFL protections in place are certainly very good for QB's - but the O's most teams run would definitely require him to put on more bulk that he's doing right now, or have insane NFL-level ability to avoid punishment.   He's 20 lbs lighter than either WIlson or Mayfield were leaving college.    Basically built to play CF, the lean, cut build.   The Combine is going to be huge for him, because stuff like hand size, his agility / explosion, ability to change arm angles with different throws, they're all going to matter.    It's also why skipping it to make it to MLB Training Camp would make a high pick an insane proposition for any team, not just us.

Wilson was able to break the mold for 3-4 very important reasons - huge paws, incredible arm strength, but most importantly, great pocket awareness & read ability, and topped it off with the ability to throw the ball at all different arm angles (a huge way to negate his shorter height).   Watson's average athletic traits were overcome by insane anticipation/placement and pocket awareness.    It's very true that size isn't needed to succeed as a QB nowadays - but there are key skills that come with the successful short (Wilson) / average athlete (Watson) QB's.    

One final comment I'd make - Elway's scouting of Drew Lock is pretty worrisome that he's not changing his MO yet.   Basically, Elway scouted 2 guys so far early in the draft process - Herbert & Lock.    Two tall, prototype-build, great-tools types, but in Lock's case, serious Q's about the actual football-ready QB skill set (at least Herbert showed off the NFL QB skills before getting hurt in 2017 and for the first 5-6 weeks in 2018, then really crashed hard - don't blame him for wanting to stay in school, his mojo was all bad after Oct/Nov).  God I hope I'm wrong, but scouting Herbert & Lock as his 1st 2 guys would suggest he's sticking to the classic formula for identifying his draft targets.

I would rather see them draft the BPA, which could be a WR, DT, or CB at their spot.  Then look at Will Grier in the 2nd Round.

[broncos67]

Denver should only take a QB Round 1 if it's Haskins. Anyone else is a waste of time and high draft capital.

 

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

I would rather see them draft the BPA, which could be a WR, DT, or CB at their spot.  Then look at Will Grier in the 2nd Round.

I know GM's don't work this way, but honestly, the difference between the 2nd-3rd QB and the 6th-7th QB in this draft is so small right now, I don't know that I'm that attached to have someone at 1.X or 2.X.   Some team is likely going to find their year 2-3 starter from 1-2 guys taken after the Rd1 guys, maybe taken even after Rd2.    Grier, Finley, Thorson, Montez, Rypien, etc.   Grier's age it would be surprising to see him go Rd1 TBH, even Rd2 would be a mild upset (although his November helped him a lot).    The Senior Bowl should be really interesting this year, because Lock/Finley/Grier/Thorson will all be there.

I do think 2-3 QB's are going Rd1, and someone is likely moving up for Haskins if JAX/NYG are picking outside the top 5-6 and OAK passes.   Lock's toolset is probably keeping him Rd1.       But after that, good luck with projecting who goes where - I'd imagine 1-2 go Rd2, and a couple more go Rd3+.   It's just terrifying imagining the need Elway sees right now. 

P.S.  FWIW, T, DT, CB all would be fine picks in the early teens.  WR in theory would be fine too, but the WR class is deep enough IMO that the dropoff from Rd2 WR is pretty small.    I do think we're probably going to hit WR again sometime in Day 2 / early Day 3 (one of our 4th's) given Sanders' injury.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

Daniel Jones has looked great today in potentially his final game at Duke, couldn’t have scripted it any better.  

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Denver should only take a QB Round 1 if it's Haskins. Anyone else is a waste of time and high draft capital.

 

And keep in mind, Haskins is not even confirmed to be entering the 2019 draft.   Dead serious that if Haskins somehow stayed in school for 2019, the fanbase should start a movement to not draft QB Rd1-2 in 2019 - so it doesn't force Elway to stick with that guy in 2020.     That would be one seriously loaded 2020 class (even though he's shown warts in Oct/Nov, Herbert joining Tua and Eason/Fromm just helps that 2020 top-end QB depth so much before we even get to Haskins being added, and any pop-up guys next year).

Sadly, if Haskins declares for the 2019 draft, even though JAX/NYG wouldn't be too far ahead of us, the GM history with Gettleman would strongly suggest we wouldn't get Haskins (as Gettleman never trades back, but he's very willing to move up to get his guy, so even if he finished behind JAX, I imagine they would trade up to get Haskins if they want him that badly).  I'm not 100 percent sold on Haskins given it's only been a year, but man, he's head and shoulders ahead of the rest in terms of comfort level with a 1.1x pick right now.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

There is a hell of a lot to like about Jones.  2nd time I’ve watched him this season and man he does things a lot of these college guys aren’t or aren’t put in situations where they have to.  

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

There is a hell of a lot to like about Jones.  2nd time I’ve watched him this season and man he does things a lot of these college guys aren’t or aren’t put in situations where they have to.  

I think it's important to look at his games where he's struggled to get a balanced view, if the sample size is only 2-3 games, no matter how good a guy is, it's bound to miss key areas.

Having said that, there's a fair amount to like in Jones, namely:

-Dude is smart as hell.   The O he runs puts a lot on the QB.   Success there is a testatment to his skills between the ears, and his placement/decisiveness.  

-He's tough as nails.   

-He's progressed in his deep throwing ability this year, which was a huge problem in 2017.    His short-intermediate placement is already very good.

-He's learned under one of the best HC's at developing QB's in college under David Cutcliffe.

That's a pretty good skill set, all things considered, and more so in this draft class.  But there are several noteworthy flags, namely:

-His arm strength is pretty average and his throwing mechanics are long (one of the reasons why he's fumbled a lot and been INT-prone); he makes up for it with really good reads and placement, but it calls into question if he's quick/strong enough to fit the ball into the tight NFL windows, and if NFL speed rushes can expose this problem to a greater degree.

-He is just above-average athletically.    This can be overcome especially if you have the in-between-the-ears skills.   But in his case, there's a combined issue, given his pocket awareness does leave him open to bigger hits.  

-Even though he's pretty sturdy by the numbers (6'5, 225 is on some of his listings), one look and we do see he's pretty thin-framed (I'd guess he's at least 10 lbs lighter).  By itself, not a concern - but he's also shown weakness in that aforementioned pocket awareness (and defender awareness in the open field) - and he's really taken big hits as a result.  Thin-framed guys with great pocket awareness help mitigate the injury risk, but that's where Jones has been vulnerable.   He's missed a fair amount of time as a result of the injuries.

-He's been TO prone, especially last year, mostly because he's tried to fit balls in where his skills can't get there (or hang on to the ball too long).   When you have an elite toolset, you can get away with that to some extent, but the NFL kills guys with that mentality and very average physical skills 100x (see: Case Keenum 2018).   I think out of all the problems, this would be the easiest to fix, but it's noteworthy in that it was a large reason to why he wasn't really on the radar before 2018 (that and his tools profile).

Now, none of the above really doesn't bother me that much if we aren't spending high draft capital, but in this year's draft, it's very possible he's that 2nd/3rd QB taken in the draft.    And that's pretty scary for Round 1.    More importantly, it's very fair to say Jones's profile is also exactly the opposite of what Elway looks for in many of his draft targets.  It's literally the opposite of Drew Lock.   In most years, a guy like Jones would go Rd 2-3 (as would Lock).   The best-case for Jones to me looks like Kirk Cousins (normally Day 2 pick that blossoms in the right system/situation).   I'd obviously be all for that kind of guy at that price.   But certainly, in this class, the top 3 who likely make it to Rd1 will certainly include Jones (and Lock, and I suspect Grier - age 24, man, no thx to take that long as a Rd1 guy) into the convo.

I kinda hope Jones has a really meh Combine - that would drop him to very attractive draft stock (Day 2, Rd 2 or even 3).    Combine season is where guys like Lock shine and rise up draft boards (but that's a double edged sword if Elway pulls the trigger on Lock at 1.1x IMO).   With no Senior Bowl, Jones is at risk of having the shorts & t-shirt season drop his stock (same with Thorson, but for different reason - Thorson's still not 100 percent post-ACL recovery, that takes 18 months to get full explosion).  The bigger issue is if Elway is willing to stop going for tools-first guys like Lock over skilled-but-less-toolsy guys like Jones.   That's a huge red flag in Elway's interest with Lock IMO.   

Edited December 27, 2018 by Broncofan

[BaldyBronco]

10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think it's important to look at his games where he's struggled to get a balanced view, if the sample size is only 2-3 games, no matter how good a guy is, it's bound to miss key areas.

Having said that, there's a fair amount to like in Jones, namely:

-Dude is smart as hell.   The O he runs puts a lot on the QB.   Success there

-He's tough as nails.   

-He's progressed in his deep throwing ability this year, which was a huge problem in 2017.    His short-intermediate placement is already very good.

-He's learned under one of the best HC's at developing QB's in college under David Cutcliffe.

 

 

There are several noteworthy flags, namely:

-His arm strength is pretty average and his throwing mechanics are long (one of the reasons why he's fumbled a lot and been INT-prone); he makes up for it with really good reads and placement, but it calls into question if he's quick/strong enough to fit the ball into the tight NFL windows.

-He is just above-average athletically.    This can be overcome especially if you have the in-between-the-ears skills.   But in his case, there's a combined issue, given his pocket awareness does leave him open to bigger hits.  

-Even though he's pretty sturdy by the numbers, one look and we do see he's pretty thin-framed.  By itself, not a concern - but he's also shown weakness in that aforementioned pocket awareness (and defender awareness in the open field) - and he's really taken big hits as a result.   He's missed a fair amount of time as a result of the injuries.

Now, none of the above really doesn't bother me that much if we aren't spending high draft capital, but in this year's draft, it's very possible he's that 2nd/3rd QB taken in the draft.    And that's pretty scary for Round 1.   More importantly, it's very fair to say it's also exactly the opposite of what Elway looks for in many of his draft targets.  It's literally the opposite of Drew Lock's profile.   In most years, a guy like Jones would go Rd 2-3 (as would Lock).  

I kinda hope Jones has a really meh Combine - that would drop him to very attractive draft stock (Day 2, Rd 2 or even 3).    Combine season is where guys like Lock shine and rise up draft boards (but that's a double edged sword if Elway pulls the trigger at 1.1x IMO).   With no Senior Bowl, he's at risk of having the shorts & t-shirt season drop his stock (same with Thorson).  The bigger issue is if Elway is willing to stop going for tools-first guys like Lock over skilled-but-less-toolsy guys like Jones.   That's a huge red flag in Elway's interest with Lock IMO.   

We are only 40 days away from the QB love fest.  This kid will be rising up boards like crazy. 

 

Great take.

[Scoundrel]

We are going to draft Grier. I had a dream about it months ago. I dreamt we would take Sutton the night of the first round too. And lone behold he was the pick the next day. If my dream betrays me I’ll have to cut my brain out. 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, Counselor said:

We are going to draft Grier. I had a dream about it months ago. I dreamt we would take Sutton the night of the first round too. And lone behold he was the pick the next day. If my dream betrays me I’ll have to cut my brain out. 

Grier at 1.1x or Day 2?   Was your dream that specific?   

Edited December 27, 2018 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Grier at 1.1x or Day 2?   Was your dream that specific?   

It was not. Maybe the next one will be

[Scoundrel]

6 hours ago, broncofan48 said:

I want to hear people's takes on Kyler Murray.  Sounding like he might try to play football, not sure if it's true or not but what do you guys think about him?

@Broncofan

@Counselor

@germ-x

Haven’t scouted him yet. I’ll take a look