2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[broncos67]

22 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I think there's a third dynamic developing. That being, FA QB's, solid but not spectacular vets, guys who's teams don't re-sign them for cap reasons. I really think QB values are due to take a pretty good hit. How do guys like Mariotta and Winston fit in? How about Wentz? He can't stay on the field.

Brees, Big Ben, Rivers, Wilson, Brady,  Mariotta, Winston among others will be FA's next year. Goff and Wentz entering their 5th season. 

I can see the reasoning of developing a great team and shuffling QB's every few years. I think the Flacco situation, jettisoning a seasoned vet for a low cost rookie may become the norm. Sitting back and signing established vets at a minimum may be the way to go.

It'll be interesting to watch. IMO the days of "franchise QB's" are over if you want to win a ring.

I disagree. QB is still the most important position across any sport. 90% of the time, you need an above average QB to win a title. Simple as that. I would also argue that what Baltimore did IS the same as that third dynamic above. I don't know of many teams that aren't simultaneously pursuing younger QBs at the expense of jettisoning the vets that are either overpaid, underperforming, or both.

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

I disagree. QB is still the most important position across any sport. 90% of the time, you need an above average QB to win a title. Simple as that. I would also argue that what Baltimore did IS the same as that third dynamic above. I don't know of many teams that aren't simultaneously pursuing younger QBs at the expense of jettisoning the vets that are either overpaid, underperforming, or both.

Okay, I understand the reasoning that a great QB is required to win a ring, but I'd offer that "defense wins championships, not QB play.

Look at the defensive ratings of the Pats in SB wins. They were great. The Seahawks with Wilson and us with PM, great defenses. The Eagles with Foles at QB, great defense. Interesting that the last team to win a SB without a top 10 defense was the Ravens with Flacco at QB.

Anyway, we'll learn a lot in the next few years. As @broncos_fan _from _ukmentioned, Brady won't last forever. Will they keep winning when he retires? Wilson just signed a $35 mil per year extension. Can the Seahawks win a ring or do they go the way of the Pack with Rodgers.

It's not really an argument for me, just an interest. Until the QB's on huge contracts start winning championships I'll stick with a defensive team rather than an elite QB. 

The rookie QB on his first contract is also an interesting approach. It worked for Wilson, Rodgers, Big Ben and Brady. Of note though is the strength of the defenses on those teams. Seahawks were rated #1, Packers #2, Steelers 3rd and the Pats 6th. Steelers had the top rated D during Big Bens 2nd SB. Since then, only Brady has continued to win rings. Maybe something to do with the fact the lowest rated D in his SB wins was 8th, with additional ratings in his SB wins of 1, 2, 1, 7, and 6.

It is interesting and we'll learn more soon.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2019 by AKRNA

[1234567]

10 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Okay, I understand the reasoning that a great QB is required to win a ring, but I'd offer that "defense wins championships, not QB play.

Look at the defensive ratings of the Pats in SB wins. They were great. The Seahawks with Wilson and us with PM, great defenses. The Eagles with Foles at QB, great defense. Interesting that the last team to win a SB without a top 10 defense was the Ravens with Flacco at QB.

Anyway, we'll learn a lot in the next few years. As @broncos_fan _from _ukmentioned, Brady won't last forever. Will they keep winning when he retires? Wilson just signed a $35 mil per year extension. Can the Seahawks win a ring or do they go the way of the Pack with Rodgers.

It's not really an argument for me, just an interest. Until the QB's on huge contracts start winning championships I'll stick with a defensive team rather than an elite QB. 

The rookie QB on his first contract is also an interesting approach. It worked for Wilson, Rodgers, Big Ben and Brady. Of note though is the strength of the defenses on those teams. Seahawks were rated #1, Packers #2, Steelers 3rd and the Pats 6th. Steelers had the top rated D during Big Bens 2nd SB. Since then, only Brady has continued to win rings. Maybe something to do with the fact the lowest rated D in his SB wins was 8th, with additional ratings in his SB wins of 1, 2, 1, 7, and 6.

It is interesting and we'll learn more soon.

 

 

The qb position is going to create an interesting NFL dynamic over the next few years. I agree with broncos67 that it's the most important position on the field. But the problem is that stud quarterbacks in their prime are starting to eat up SO much cap space that's it's going to be hard for teams to build around them. Look what just happened in Seattle with Wilson. How the hell are they going to build a good team around him when he's eating up $35 million per year in cap space by himself? And I don't even want to guess what Mahomes' next contract is going to cost. Good lord.. I bet he'll be the first player to hit $40 million per season. And it will nuke them just like Rogers' contract did in Green Bay. 

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, 1234567 said:

The qb position is going to create an interesting NFL dynamic over the next few years. I agree with broncos67 that it's the most important position on the field. But the problem is that stud quarterbacks in their prime are starting to eat up SO much cap space that's it's going to be hard for teams to build around them. Look what just happened in Seattle with Wilson. How the hell are they going to build a good team around him when he's eating up $35 million per year in cap space by himself? And I don't even want to guess what Mahomes' next contract is going to cost. Good lord.. I bet he'll be the first player to hit $40 million per season. And it will nuke them just like Rogers' contract did in Green Bay. 

I agree with you both. QB is the most important position in the game, but as you mention, at what point financially does it deliver negative returns.

@broncos_fan _from _uk mentioned, Brady is the only elite QB that has maintained a reasonable salary. He's also the only one thats had continued success. BB produces teams , year in and out that are top 5 to 10 on both sides of the ball. You can't do that if you're paying a ridiculous amount to one player. Kinda like Denver with a $25 mil OLB.

I just think at some point teams will have to say no more. Wilson could just be that final straw. Good enough to get a team to the playoffs but not a chance to go the distance.

Kinda the reason QBOTF to me has a dull edge. Mahomes next contract will be absurd like you say. It'd take a lot of balls for a GM to trade him before he breaks the bank.

Gotta admit, it's quite an interesting topic.

[broncos67]

6 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I agree with you both. QB is the most important position in the game, but as you mention, at what point financially does it deliver negative returns.

@broncos_fan _from _uk mentioned, Brady is the only elite QB that has maintained a reasonable salary. He's also the only one thats had continued success. BB produces teams , year in and out that are top 5 to 10 on both sides of the ball. You can't do that if you're paying a ridiculous amount to one player. Kinda like Denver with a $25 mil OLB.

I just think at some point teams will have to say no more. Wilson could just be that final straw. Good enough to get a team to the playoffs but not a chance to go the distance.

Kinda the reason QBOTF to me has a dull edge. Mahomes next contract will be absurd like you say. It'd take a lot of balls for a GM to trade him before he breaks the bank.

Gotta admit, it's quite an interesting topic.

The Brady thing is also hard to decouple because Belichick is one of the best coaches of all-time. So yes, Brady has an artificially low contract, but they also have a coaching advantage over a lot of teams. I think what else needs to be considered is how good the actual QB your paying top dollar is. Russell Wilson is a SB winner. Mahomes is a tremendous player, MVP at a young age. Those guys are probably worth the contract if they're that much above the rest of the league.

I think where you run into issues is when guys like Kirk Cousins get paid absurd amounts of money despite being an arguably above average QB and nothing more. I agree at some point the contracts become unsustainable, but that's really only the case when the player isn't performing. Miller is still performing commensurate with his contract- if he wasn't it would be a waste.

[AKRNA]

On 4/19/2019 at 6:27 AM, broncos67 said:

The Brady thing is also hard to decouple because Belichick is one of the best coaches of all-time. So yes, Brady has an artificially low contract, but they also have a coaching advantage over a lot of teams. I think what else needs to be considered is how good the actual QB your paying top dollar is. Russell Wilson is a SB winner. Mahomes is a tremendous player, MVP at a young age. Those guys are probably worth the contract if they're that much above the rest of the league.

I think where you run into issues is when guys like Kirk Cousins get paid absurd amounts of money despite being an arguably above average QB and nothing more. I agree at some point the contracts become unsustainable, but that's really only the case when the player isn't performing. Miller is still performing commensurate with his contract- if he wasn't it would be a waste.

We agree on a lot of points. On BB, I think his real genius is player personnel, developing a roster and managing the cap. He's head and shoulders above any else in the league. 

As far as QB money, I think we flew by the upper limit of salary for any one player. You sort of mention that with Cousins. $25 mil for being average. So, if he's the benchmark then sure Mahomes and Wilson are worth more. Problem is, the league has gotten so crazy with QB salaries that Cousins is drastically overpaid.

IMO, once you exceed %10-12 of the cap on one player you're past the limit. Wilsons contract is roughly %18 of the total cap. Thats just not sustainable. The team overall will suffer. Matter of fact, they've been getting progressively worse since 2015 when Wilson signed his last extension. 

Anyway, just a thought.

[broncos67]

13 hours ago, AKRNA said:

We agree on a lot of points. On BB, I think his real genius is player personnel, developing a roster and managing the cap. He's head and shoulders above any else in the league. 

As far as QB money, I think we flew by the upper limit of salary for any one player. You sort of mention that with Cousins. $25 mil for being average. So, if he's the benchmark then sure Mahomes and Wilson are worth more. Problem is, the league has gotten so crazy with QB salaries that Cousins is drastically overpaid.

IMO, once you exceed %10-12 of the cap on one player you're past the limit. Wilsons contract is roughly %18 of the total cap. Thats just not sustainable. The team overall will suffer. Matter of fact, they've been getting progressively worse since 2015 when Wilson signed his last extension. 

Anyway, just a thought.

It may not be sustainable if the cap doesn't keep increasing. I think that's fair. That said, Wilson has proven he can lead teams to the championship and win the championship, so I think he's an example of a player that does deserve the contract he got. I do not think Kirk Cousins is that player. Frankly, I think that kind of contract is what will break the camel's back, so to speak. The Vikings will never sniff the SB with Cousins.

[DiehardBronxFan]

Any chance we’re going to discus 2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects in the 2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects thread?😜

Assuming we take a QB at some point in the draft, who do you want them to take? 

Haskins?

Locke?

Jones?

Finlay?

Grier?

Stidham (sp?)?

Thorson?

Rypien?

other?

 

 

[Scoundrel]

On 1/2/2019 at 11:21 PM, Counselor said:

Recently Scouted Lock and while Ozzy probably has a more in depth assessment than I do this is what I see.

-All Arm, foot mechanics are bad

-Backpedals in the face of pressure and doesn’t have a good sense for pocket timing or edge presence and therefore has poor pocket awareness

-Smart with the football. If it isn’t there usually knows to get rid of the football. (When he does sense the pressure)

-Not the gunslinger mentality despite the arm strength but also a negative because there is not a killer mentality.

-Pretty decent athlete 

-Has an nfl caliber arm

 Locks accuracy issues stem from his footwork in my opinion. He is frustrating because he either stops foot movement (I hate dead feet in the pocket) too soon or backpedals after setting feet instead of stepping up into a throw. Might be able to get away with that in college with his arm strength but not happening in the nfl. He needs refinement and if he can get a coach to really fix the footwork he has the other tools. 

 

 

•  

@DiehardBronxFan this is some old stuff. If I get time I’ll be able to post more. He does have coachable traits. He has the confidence also to succeed according to all reports. That confidence doesn’t show up in the face of pressure. He is going to need more refinement than a one year starter in Haskins. 

[DiehardBronxFan]

6 hours ago, Counselor said:

@DiehardBronxFan this is some old stuff. If I get time I’ll be able to post more. He does have coachable traits. He has the confidence also to succeed according to all reports. That confidence doesn’t show up in the face of pressure. He is going to need more refinement than a one year starter in Haskins. 

Thanks @Counselor!  Very insightful. I definitely prefer Haskins.  But hopeful Scangarello could coach up the bad and maximize the good with Locke. 

In any case, whoever they take at QB, I’ll withhold judgement until at least year 2 and give them the benefit of the doubt until then. But if Elway takes a QB round 1, and they bust, he needs to go.....

[AKRNA]

49 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Thanks @Counselor!  Very insightful. I definitely prefer Haskins.  But hopeful Scangarello could coach up the bad and maximize the good with Locke. 

In any case, whoever they take at QB, I’ll withhold judgement until at least year 2 and give them the benefit of the doubt until then. But if Elway takes a QB round 1, and they bust, he needs to go.....

Amen!

[Scoundrel]

This kid doesn’t get enough love

https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1119265295212871685

[DiehardBronxFan]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

This kid doesn’t get enough love

https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1119265295212871685

But But But ....... he ran a slow 40!!  

 

[The Helicopter]

On 4/18/2019 at 11:36 AM, broncos67 said:

till the most important position across any sport. 90% of the time, you need an above average QB to win a title. Simple as that. I would also argue that what Baltimore did IS the same as that third dynamic above. I don't know of many teams that aren't simultaneously pursuing younger QBs at the expense of jettisoning the vets that are either overpaid, underperforming, or both.

 

23 hours ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Thanks @Counselor!  Very insightful. I definitely prefer Haskins.  But hopeful Scangarello could coach up the bad and maximize the good with Locke. 

In any case, whoever they take at QB, I’ll withhold judgement until at least year 2 and give them the benefit of the doubt until then. But if Elway takes a QB round 1, and they bust, he needs to go.....

The number of coaches we've gone through tells me he needs to go. Maybe he can hit gold with Scangalello and this years draft. It'll take a miracle...

[DiehardBronxFan]

42 minutes ago, The Helicopter said:

 

The number of coaches we've gone through tells me he needs to go. Maybe he can hit gold with Scangalello and this years draft. It'll take a miracle...

Not sure you can blame him for Fox or Kubiak.  Fox did what he needed to do, and Kubs got us a SB, then retired for health reasons.  Elway whiffed on "the great leader of men".