2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[Royal_VT]

Saw an interesting note today where Mel said that if Herbert was in the 2018 class, he would've ranked 5th (behind Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen). So just take everything with a grain of salt when you see QB talk in the next 5 months, because obviously they get a lot of hype. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 4 drafted in the 1st round, despite the lack of overwhelming talent, just based on draft dynamics.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Royal_VT said:

Saw an interesting note today where Mel said that if Herbert was in the 2018 class, he would've ranked 5th (behind Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen). So just take everything with a grain of salt when you see QB talk in the next 5 months, because obviously they get a lot of hype. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 4 drafted in the 1st round, despite the lack of overwhelming talent, just based on draft dynamics.

And to turn it around - I think everyone drafted in Rd1 last year would be the head-and-shoulders guy above the rest of the draft class of 2019 with Haskins, who's really elevated himself above the rest (and with a ton of Q's given it's literally just 1 season of work, that's always iffier to project, but the tools are so much better than the rest of this really meh class).

Like I've been saying - as much as I pounded the table to go Rd1 in 2018 - I'm totally off this 2019 class.  The risk is just sky-high.  And we likely can forget about the one guy who has the same ceiling as the 2018 class does (Haskins).   After that Big 10 final, he's going top 10 if he declares, no way he falls to mid-late teens which is our likely draft spot.

Edited December 5, 2018 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

FWIW, I would suspect we aren't likely to hit QB until Rd3 now, at the earliest.  Why?  Well, besides trenches, the draft class is really deep in high-end WR talent.   I would be shocked if we didn't invest a Rd1-2 pick on WR now.   Sutton's a fine X, but he's going to need help, and Hamilton's a great slot guy, but doubt that's the 1-2 punch Elway envisioned, and certainly not for 2019.   Obviously WR's take time, but adding another WR weapon in a loaded top-end class makes sense.  

Add in that CB & trenches will be likely at the top of the BPA list when we hit Rd1, I could see a CB/T-WR-T-CB draft going off the big board for BPA/skills.    I don't think WR will be at the top of the BPA list when we pick Rd1, but it also depends on how the board falls, too. 

Obviously if there's a QB worth considering that's worth the pick, Elway will do it - but the dynamic of the draft's depth and our needs have really changed, especially given how meh the top end QB class is (and again, BPA is a concept that has more weight in Rds 1-2 and sometimes 3, by some point in Rd3 or Rd4, the gaps are so small, that need is a very reasonable deciding factor rather than only as a tiebreaker between 2 guys of similar overall ability).

Edited December 5, 2018 by Broncofan

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I fully admit I have not had a chance to watch much football this season, but I think if Elway drafts Haskins it will cost him the job. The kid has promise and if he stays another year in college I would jump all over him. But over the last 15 years (that’s as far back as I had time to research) the list of QBs who have started at least 5 NFL games after a college career where they started less than 20 games is less than impressive:

Ryan Tannehill 

Trevor Semien

Mitch Trubisky

Brock Osweiler 

Matt Cassel

the adjustment to NFL speed is too great to also learn the basics of reading a defense on the fly as well

[lomaxgrUK]

Would sort of price would we have to pay for Jacoby Brissett? I think he's a perfect fit for a Musgrave Offense (should be still be in Denver). The only issue is that the fact he's only got 1 year left on his contract, but with Luck proving his health is there a chance we could pick him up at a reasonable price (2nd rounder?)

 

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Would sort of price would we have to pay for Jacoby Brissett? I think he's a perfect fit for a Musgrave Offense (should be still be in Denver). The only issue is that the fact he's only got 1 year left on his contract, but with Luck proving his health is there a chance we could pick him up at a reasonable price (2nd rounder?)

 

IND is on record as saying they wouldn’t take anything less than a 1st.   Obviously there is some posturing but doesn’t seem like a fit.  

Wasn’t sure his skills would translate well - processing read progression / D reading wasn’t great last year.  Certainly not for a top draft pick (even Rd2) and paying market FA rates. The part that’s appealing about draft guys is their cheap 4-5 year cycle of salary.   That benefit really goes down with acquiring a guy just as their contract ends.  

It’s tough the QB options for 2019 just suck all around.  I do get leaving no stone being left unturned.   

Edited December 10, 2018 by Broncofan

[broncofan48]

What about Tyrod Taylor?  @champ11

[champ11]

1 hour ago, broncofan48 said:

What about Tyrod Taylor?  @champ11

he made me look bad this year lol. I think he's the same tier as Keenum as a low end starter/high end backup. Could see us bringing him in for cheap if we don't target a QB in the draft, but I think he will get some pretty strong offers to be a backup

[broncofan48]

2 minutes ago, champ11 said:

he made me look bad this year lol. I think he's the same tier as Keenum as a low end starter/high end backup. Could see us bringing him in for cheap if we don't target a QB in the draft, but I think he will get some pretty strong offers to be a backup

Yeah I mean that whole team didn't look good under Hue though.   I don't know what the answer is for next year but I do know it isn't Keenum, which is most likely who will be starting for us unfortunately 

[AnAngryAmerican]

Truthfully, any of the free agents or potential free agents (Taylor, Flacco, ect.) are just another Case Keenum with a different name. It's like buying a 10-year old car to replace your 10-year old car - it might have a nicer paint job but you're going to run into problems with it, they might different problems, the transmission doesn't work right versus have the alternator always going out, but they're problems nonetheless. 

We need a long-term answer at QB. We had a chance to get one, at least swing the bat,  last year and we watched the pitch go by and took the walk. A walk is nice but it's not a bases-clearing double. 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Truthfully, any of the free agents or potential free agents (Taylor, Flacco, ect.) are just another Case Keenum with a different name. It's like buying a 10-year old car to replace your 10-year old car - it might have a nicer paint job but you're going to run into problems with it, they might different problems, the transmission doesn't work right versus have the alternator always going out, but they're problems nonetheless. 

We need a long-term answer at QB. We had a chance to get one, at least swing the bat,  last year and we watched the pitch go by and took the walk. A walk is nice but it's not a bases-clearing double. 

Yeah, the only potential FA's who would be different are guys that will either cost a mint, or likely are retained by their own clubs - because they have the ceiling to be franchise QB's (Bridgewater & Winston).   It's looking more & more like TAM will just exercise the option on Winston.  And while Bridgewater's 5M 2018 contract looks like an awesome move in hindsight, he's also now going to likely enter FA as the top guy - and get the top $$ (I'd guess mid-20's AAV).   The franchise tag is now 29M, so I don't see NO keeping him at that rate.  

It's hard because we all recognize Keenum is not a short or long-term answer.   But man, it's hard to see an obvious 2019 solution here, especially since where we pick, the draft candidates look to be downright scary.    

Dead serious when I say I hope Bo Levi Mitchell signs with us.  Not that we should attach any firm hopes, but hey, anything that cheap can't hurt.

[jsthomp2007]

29 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Truthfully, any of the free agents or potential free agents (Taylor, Flacco, ect.) are just another Case Keenum with a different name. It's like buying a 10-year old car to replace your 10-year old car - it might have a nicer paint job but you're going to run into problems with it, they might different problems, the transmission doesn't work right versus have the alternator always going out, but they're problems nonetheless. 

We need a long-term answer at QB. We had a chance to get one, at least swing the bat,  last year and we watched the pitch go by and took the walk. A walk is nice but it's not a bases-clearing double. 

I would argue to the Eagles that Wentz has durability issues and I would trade Keenum, a high draft pick, and Emmanuel Sanders for him.

[Broncofan]

BTW I mentioned it in the GDT but probably should leave it here - Haskins just asked a fellow OSU player to stay an extra year - you don't do that if you are planning on leaving.  Haskins hasn't ever said he's declaring for the draft.  So to say this is a huge Q is very much in play.  

If Herbert is the only QB who declares, it's still very likely at least 1 if not 2 of the Will Griers/Daniel Jones/Drew Lock tier gets taken before we pick (NYG, JAX seem locked into QB no matter what).   WAS is now picking behind us, but with a W vs. OAK, and WAS losing out, we'd be picking behind them too.  They seem a lock for QB with Alex Smith's 71M tied up and his career in doubt.

I had serious doubts about Rd1 QB anyways...man, this isn't good news if Haskins stays.   That's a huge hit to the top end depth if true.  Ugh.

 

[germ-x]

Listened to an interesting video from PFF on how they ranked the current Bowl QBs on NFL potential.

Tua Tagovailoa was 7th and behind Lawrence, Herbert, Haskins, Costello, Murray, and Grier.  The stated concerns about the talent around him making it easy and a lack in arm strength as very real concerns.

Further, Fromm didn’t even make the top 10.  Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Finley rounded out the top 10.

Those are the 2 QBs we’re being told to “wait for” in 2020.  I know Eason is in the mix, but that’s all upside he hasn’t shown anything to this point.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

Listened to an interesting video from PFF on how they ranked the current Bowl QBs on NFL potential.

Tua Tagovailoa was 7th and behind Lawrence, Herbert, Haskins, Costello, Murray, and Grier.  The stated concerns about the talent around him making it easy and a lack in arm strength as very real concerns.

Further, Fromm didn’t even make the top 10.  Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Finley rounded out the top 10.

Those are the 2 QBs we’re being told to “wait for” in 2020.  I know Eason is in the mix, but that’s all upside he hasn’t shown anything to this point.

It’s the success at an early stage of their career.   Along with the possession of the most important physical passing skills (placement/accuracy, anticipation and ability to throw players open), that combo is the best predictor of future NFL success.   The 2020 class’ success so far predicts a banner year next year with still another year of development.   The 2019 guys are in college terms finished products and over the same stage of development weren’t nearly as successful as the 2018 or 2020 class entering their final season nor enjoyed the same growth as the 2018 class in their final year.

Herbert was only guy to have the same level of early success and maintain growth until a very meh mid-October stretch against average competition that’s really dropped his stock.  Everyone else this year has had big up and downs that really show the Q marks.  Grier is probably the only one who has a longer degree of success but he’s 24+ entering the NFL his struggles shouldn’t be as pronounced as they’ve been.  Basically everyone but Haskins has been very up and down in what should be their banner year (and Haskins only has this year to go off).   Add in a much shorter prior level of success before their final year and the label of a meh top end class for 2019 is well earned.  As a developmental class later on I actually like the idea because some of these guys will drop.  Just not as a Rd 1-2 pick. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Broncofan