Upcoming Extensions, Options, and Free Agents

[Madmike90]

10 hours ago, Damikeeeee said:

Is that your opinion or did he see that some where?  I have no clue so just asking. 

Just an opinion.

[dll2000]

11 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Three weeks into this season, they didn’t have Mack as a top NFL defender.

Last season, they had Amos as the league’s best SS.

Last week, they said Trubisky is the least valuable player at his position.

They don’t have Roquan as one of the better rookies in football.

And you care how they rank the NFL’s right tackles? Suit yourself.

Nicely put.  

[WindyCity]

20 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

I wouldn't say we have no money in 2019...plenty can be done with that roster to create cap space...if the Saints & Steelers can be so tight to the cap year in year out there is no reason we can't.

The problem with pushing money into 2020 is that there are some serious contracts that need to be done or that can be done.

The Bears need to be disciplined in 2019 because 2020 and 2021 are going to be big years for more important players.

[WindyCity]

1. Aggressively re-sign Callahan

2. Let Amos test the market, if he finds 7+/season then he walks and we should get at least a 4th round comp pick. If his market is not there then maybe get him back.

3. Massie, I think this is a straight walk. We have Coward developing and can draft a replacement as well.

4. Lynch, test the market and he can come back on a 1 year deal if he doesn't find real money.

4. Training camp extend Whitehair

[Madmike90]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The problem with pushing money into 2020 is that there are some serious contracts that need to be done or that can be done.

The Bears need to be disciplined in 2019 because 2020 and 2021 are going to be big years for more important players.

This is today's NFL tho...you have to play fast and loose with the cap and that means at times kicking the can down the road...look at the contenders this year...basically all are projected to be over the cap next year...the Eagles are like $20 over right now on projections...we have to be brave if we are going to compete.

[dll2000]

14 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Three weeks into this season, they didn’t have Mack as a top NFL defender.

Last season, they had Amos as the league’s best SS.

Last week, they said Trubisky is the least valuable player at his position.

They don’t have Roquan as one of the better rookies in football.

And you care how they rank the NFL’s right tackles? Suit yourself.

Listen to Sun PFF podcast. 

They had this discussion about how they have to factor in his good situation (good coach and weapons and running backs) and lack of drops by his WRs.  So that is why they rate him low. They take percentage points off for that.

Then they gave imaginary scenarios where instead of a catch and run for a TD the WR tipped the pass and it was intercepted by defense. They said you have to factor that in.

 What?  

Sounds like confirmation bias to me. 

[dll2000]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

1. Aggressively re-sign Callahan

2. Let Amos test the market, if he finds 7+/season then he walks and we should get at least a 4th round comp pick. If his market is not there then maybe get him back.

3. Massie, I think this is a straight walk. We have Coward developing and can draft a replacement as well.

4. Lynch, test the market and he can come back on a 1 year deal if he doesn't find real money.

4. Training camp extend Whitehair

Coward is a bit of an unknown. What do they do during week to develop non starters?  We have no way of knowing.  Probably little to nothing though. There just isn't time for that.  

If they make that decision it would be a risky one.  You can't play with a really bad OT. It is a crucial position.  

Amos and Lynch I am not terribly concerned about whatever happens. 

[WindyCity]

24 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

This is today's NFL tho...you have to play fast and loose with the cap and that means at times kicking the can down the road...look at the contenders this year...basically all are projected to be over the cap next year...the Eagles are like $20 over right now on projections...we have to be brave if we are going to compete.

I am not sure we need to be brave to keep Adrian Amos.

Our brave move was Robinson and Mack and the fall out from those moves is that some lesser starters are going to walk. The teams you mention lose guys every year and get comp picks because of how tight to the cap they run it.

I would agree with playing a little fast and loose if it was to keep more important players.

But playing fast and loose for Amos on the chance it costs you Jackson down the line seems irresponsible.

[Madmike90]

3 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I am not sure we need to be brave to keep Adrian Amos.

Our brave move was Robinson and Mack and the fall out from those moves is that some lesser starters are going to walk. The teams you mention lose guys every year and get comp picks because of how tight to the cap they run it.

I would agree with playing a little fast and loose if it was to keep more important players.

But playing fast and loose for Amos on the chance it costs you Jackson down the line seems irresponsible.

I think we have a chance to keep just about everyone we want if we are going to be creative...I trust these FO guys.

[JAF-N72EX]

This year(2018) the cap was $177.20 and in the last 5 years the salary cap has increased 7% (or $10.8M) on average. Using this as a baseline, the expected salary cap for 2019 would be $188.70. 

Year	Maximum team salary	% Increase	Total Increase (in M)
2019	$188.70	6.1%	11.5
2018	$177.20	5.8%	10.2
2017	$167.00	7.0%	11.7
2016	$155.27	7.7%	12.0
2015	$143.28	7.2%	10.3
2014	$133	7.5%	10.0
2013	$123	2.0%	2.4
2012	$120.60	0.5%	0.6
2011	$120	--	--
Total Average	$142.42	5.4%	8.2
Avg last 5 years	$155.15	7.0%	10.8

As of right now, in 2019, the Bears total cap cost stands at $173,653,136. Using the future projected salary cap ($188,700,000), this puts us at $15,046,864 in available cap space next year.

$15,046,864 - $2,000,000 for rookie pool + Dion Sims $6,333,334 ($333,334 dead cap) + Sam Acho $2,375,000 ($250,000 dead cap) = $21,755,198 in total cap space.

 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

After digging into this alot more, @Madmike90 may not be too far off in saying that we could very well afford to keep all of them with some creative thinking that is far beyond any of our skills or knowledge. It actually shocked me to find out how possible it really is.

Looking at this realistically, I used the same info I posted above and I came up with what you see below. This puts the liability cap at $193,943,886 in 2019 and down to $179,707,246 in 2020. Now, 193M ofcourse puts us over the projected the cap ($5,243,886 over to be exact) but that is where Kyle Long's reconstructed contract comes in at (which is not included) as well as the creative thinking from the FO that most of us are not privy too. And let's be real, my projected cap numbers and salaries are just that....projected. But even so, making up for say $10M is not out of the realm of possibility for the FO. Remember when the Eagles were somehow able to pull money out their butts to create the "dream team" when they were already strapped as it was. Yet they somehow scrapped together the means to sign the best corner in the league at that time in Scrabble.

Also keep in mind, I didn't included extending Whitehair. Because quite frankly if Pace were to be able to pull this and keep all of the core, depth and good future project players at the expense of waiting until next year....I'm all for it! Just my opinion.

Just another note, again I really tried to look at this realistically and even included signing bonuses, roster bonues and workout bonuses.

Other possible moves
Reconstruct Kyle Long: Savings unknown and not included.

$21,755,198 w/ 40 players under contract (4 rookies included)

Players to let go:
Benny Cunningham
Bryan Witzmann
Daniel Brown
Eric Kush
Josh Bellamy
Kevin White
Marcus Cooper
Michael Burton
Nicholas Williams
Zach Miller

Players to retain: (would be a total 51 players under contract--remember only the top 51 for that particular year goes against the actual cap)
Aaron Lynch - Solid depth player on the edge. Bring him back on a cheap 3 yr deal similar to Kareem Martin's with the incentives.
**Adrian Amos**
Ben Braunecker - RFA, good upside at a cheap price
Bobby Massie 
Bryce Callahan
DeAndre Houston-Carson - RFA, May as well as keep him.
Isaiah Irving - ERFA, May as well as keep him.
Pat O'Donnell - Not a big fan but if he's willing to sign another 1 yr deal I'm fine with it. 
Patrick Scales - Another RFA that will be cheap. Haven't seen any mistakes and we all know how ugly it can get without a good LS.
Rashaad Coward - ERFA
Roy Robertson-Harris - ERFA
=================================
Aaron Lynch: 3/15M 7M guarantee---Cap hit: 2019 ($3,350,000), 2020 ($5,100,000)

Adrian Amos: 4yr/34M 19M guarantee (similar to  Tony Jefferson)---Cap hits: 2019 ($5,790,000), 2020 ($5,750,000)

Ben Braunecker: 1/720k---Cap hit: 2019 ($720,000)

Bobbie Massie: 5/32M 12.5M guarantee (similar to Jermey Parnell)---Cap hits: 2019 (5,000,000), 2020 ($7,500,000)

Bryce Callahan: 4/34M 18M guarantee (similar to what Aaron Colvin got in the open market)--- Cap hits: 2019 ($7,750,000), 2020 ($8,750,000)

DeAndre Houston-Carson: 1/720k--Cap hit: 2019 ($720,000)

Isaiah Irving: 1/645k--Cap Hit: 2019 ($645,000)

Pat O'Donnell: 1/1.5M 0.5k guarantee---Cap hit: 2019 ($1,500,000)

Patrick Scales: 1/720k--Cap kit: 2019 ($720,000)

Rashaad Coward: 1/645k--Cap kit: 2019 ($645,000)

Roy Robertson-Harris: 2/3M 0.5k guarantee (similar to Ethan Westbrook)--Cap kit: 2019 ($1,250,000), 2020: ($2,225,000)

 

 

[beardown3231]

I like the idea of keeping a lot of these guys but 4/34 for Amos and 3/15 for Lynch? Yikes. I’d rather try to keep Lynch on a 1 year deal or use a 3rd or 4th rounder on a pass rusher. Lynch isn’t any good.

[dll2000]

On November 16, 2018 at 12:05 PM, JustAnotherFan said:

This year(2018) the cap was $177.20 and in the last 5 years the salary cap has increased 7% (or $10.8M) on average. Using this as a baseline, the expected salary cap for 2019 would be $188.70. 

 

 

Year	Maximum team salary	% Increase	Total Increase (in M)
2019	$188.70	6.1%	11.5
2018	$177.20	5.8%	10.2
2017	$167.00	7.0%	11.7
2016	$155.27	7.7%	12.0
2015	$143.28	7.2%	10.3
2014	$133	7.5%	10.0
2013	$123	2.0%	2.4
2012	$120.60	0.5%	0.6
2011	$120	--	--
Total Average	$142.42	5.4%	8.2
Avg last 5 years	$155.15	7.0%	10.8

As of right now, in 2019, the Bears total cap cost stands at $173,653,136. Using the future projected salary cap ($188,700,000), this puts us at $15,046,864 in available cap space next year.

$15,046,864 - $2,000,000 for rookie pool + Dion Sims $6,333,334 ($333,334 dead cap) + Sam Acho $2,375,000 ($250,000 dead cap) = $21,755,198 in total cap space.

 

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/chicago-bears/ has it at 20.4

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/cap/2019/ has it at 19.3

 

[WindyCity]

You spend over 30 million before we even talk about the draft and emergency money.

The Bears will have to make significant moves to get to 35 million in cap space.

You also have eaten up 27 million of cap space in 2020, when the Bears have serious free agents to re-sign and young guys to extend.

We would enter 2020, with 17 million in cap space, very few players we could cut, and Whitehair, Floyd as free agents and Jackson and Cohen as extension candidates.

[JAF-N72EX]

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/chicago-bears/ has it at 20.4

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/cap/2019/ has it at 19.3

Yeah I saw that but when I was looking at the numbers something just wasn't adding up. That's why I went ahead and did the figures myself. Just to see what I would come up with.

But you know I did completely forgot to add in the roll over cost from this year to next years cap space too (assuming we won't need to use any more of it anyhow), which adds an additional $4,232,997(per OTC--personal preference, nothing against sportrac). This only puts us over the cap by $1,010,889 using the same figures above as opposed to 5+ mil that I said. Which in turn, makes this even more of a possibility.

This brings the available cap space to $19,279,861 and $25,988,195 after the rookie pool and releasing Sims and Acho. 

12 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I like the idea of keeping a lot of these guys but 4/34 for Amos and 3/15 for Lynch? Yikes. I’d rather try to keep Lynch on a 1 year deal or use a 3rd or 4th rounder on a pass rusher. Lynch isn’t any good.

1) The structure of a deal is more important than the years and total value of a contract (this is what made me feel better about the Mack deal). Lynch's contract for instance is basically a 3 year deal for 12M with team outs after the first year(2020). We could release him and get back $1.85M in cap space as the dead money is only $3.25.

2) Keeping the core guys together is going to be key in the future success of this team. We currently have the best defense in the NFL, hands down, and you don't fix it until it's broke.

3) In the NFL, you're going to pay more for players at premium positions and edge defenders are considered the 2nd most important position in football behind the QB. Even for solid, young players like Lynch.

3) We have the best defense in the NFL and no team gets there without depth. Especially in the front 7 and Lynch has played ~33% of the total snaps on defense.

4) Be specific, why do you think Lynch is not any good?