Week 11 Post-Game: Packers 24 Seahawks 27

[Golfman]

1 minute ago, Leader said:

If there's a list of those that want to replace MM - your name is certainly on it. We got it.

At the top I hope! 

[{Family Ghost}]

Danny Parkins from 670 The Score blows up McCarthy's theory that he was playing the number when he failed to go for it on 4th and 2.  Parkins has long felt that McCarthy is a terrible head coach and has held the Packers back for years.  

https://670thescore.radio.com/watch-danny-parkins-great-joy-packers-mike-mccarthy-failings

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Danny Parkins from 670 The Score blows up McCarthy's theory that he was playing the number when he failed to go for it on 4th and 2.  Parkins has long felt that McCarthy is a terrible head coach and has held the Packers back for years.  

https://670thescore.radio.com/watch-danny-parkins-great-joy-packers-mike-mccarthy-failings

I would bet the math heavily favored going for it there. 

[TheOnlyThing]

2 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Danny Parkins from 670 The Score blows up McCarthy's theory that he was playing the number when he failed to go for it on 4th and 2.  Parkins has long felt that McCarthy is a terrible head coach and has held the Packers back for years.  

https://670thescore.radio.com/watch-danny-parkins-great-joy-packers-mike-mccarthy-failings

The way he is getting hammered nationally, I wonder if McCarthy wishes he'd have been part of last season's exodus. 

"Packers coach Mike McCarthy has parlayed the absence of a traditional owner and the presence of a transcendent quarterback into the kind of job security that few other coaches enjoy. McCarthy’s ability to escape scrutiny may now be coming to an end, and he has only himself to blame for it."

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/11/16/mike-mccarthys-reliance-on-the-numbers-underscores-the-extent-of-his-blunder/

 

[{Family Ghost}]

24 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I would bet the math heavily favored going for it there. 

Rodgers is 60 percent at converting 4th and 2 in his career.  League average is over 50 percent. Given that our defense was a mash unit by the end it was a huge mistake by MM not to go for it.  The missed challenge opportunity was also a gaffe ... Not a good look for McCarthy last night on national tv.

[Sasquatch]

20 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Rodgers is 60 percent at converting 4th and 2 in his career.  League average is over 50 percent. Given that our defense was a mash unit by the end it was a huge mistake by MM not to go for it.  The missed challenge opportunity was also a gaffe ... Not a good look for McCarthy last night on national tv.

Wonder what Rodgers conversion rate is for 3rd and short after last night’s debacle?  Bet it isn’t pretty.

[Packer_ESP]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

I would bet the math heavily favored going for it there. 

This was my complaint last week when we went for it midfield in the first half. Why do we do it when it's not necessary and then cower when we need it? To play the averages and take advantage of that math we need to do it constantly or at least in the most favorable and/or needy situations.

[{Family Ghost}]

1 hour ago, Packer_ESP said:

This was my complaint last week when we went for it midfield in the first half. Why do we do it when it's not necessary and then cower when we need it? To play the averages and take advantage of that math we need to do it constantly or at least in the most favorable and/or needy situations.

McCarthy has never had a true identity there.  In recent years I think of him as being bolder in these types of situations, but then he goes and passes up an opportunity on TNF.   I think back to him settling for field goals when they faced 4th and goal in a playoff game in Seattle.  Some bolder action there and we might have had a second Super Bowl appearance.  Overall MM is inconsistent in his decision making ... much like his team.

[skibrett15]

13 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Overall MM is inconsistent in his decision making ... much like his team.

MM is borderline horrible with how he calls the game, manages TOs, and the like.  He would frequently call TOs to set teams up with 3rd and 7 and a stopped clock at the end of halves.

He's an offensive coordinator masquerading as a head coach.  I can't think of a single area where he has improved or matured as a head coach.  He would probably honestly tell you its his consistency and preparation if you asked him.

You see him at his best on the scripted plays at the beginning of the game

[Leader]

6 hours ago, incognito_man said:

I would bet the math heavily favored going for it there. 

That could very well be but football isnt a math equation. 

So - lets look at what at what factored in the decision not to go for it. How the offense was working. 

The drive / possession before our last one - wasnt exactly "hitting on all cylinders" - outside the 57yd bomb to Davante - it was another not much of anything:

1st & 10 at GB 25  - (12:14 - 4th) A.Rodgers pass short right to A.Jones to GB 26 for 1 yard (J.Coleman).
2nd & 9 at GB 26 - (11:26 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to E.St. Brown.
3rd & 9 at GB 26 - (11:23 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass deep right to D.Adams to SEA 17 for 57 yards (SL.Griffin) [J.Reed].
(10:31 - 4th) Timeout #2 by GB at 10:31.
1st & 10 at SEA 17 - (10:31 - 4th) A.Rodgers pass short left to A.Jones to SEA 16 for 1 yard (B.Wagner; F.Clark).
2nd & 9 at SEA 16 - (9:42 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Jones right end pushed ob at SEA 12 for 4 yards (SL.Griffin).
3rd & 5 at SEA 12 - (9:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at SEA 18 for -6 yards (R.Green).
4th & 11 at SEA 18 - (8:23 - 4th) Mason Crosby 36 Yd Field Goal  -  SCORE:  GB 24 - SEA 20

SEA took the ensuing kickoff - drove 75 yards in 3:15mins for the go ahead TD  -  SCORE: SEA 27 - GB 24

So - the last time GB had the ball on offense - another whole lot of nothing working:

1st & 10 at GB 25 - (5:08 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to E.St. Brown.|
2nd & 10 at GB 25 - (5:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 33 for 8 yards (A.Calitro).
3rd & 2 at GB 33 - (4:23 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to M.Valdes-Scantling.
4th & 2 at GB 33 -(4:20 - 4th) J.Scott punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-H.Bradley, Touchback.

Now - would I like to think GB could pick up 2 yards. No question - but given how well they'd been kicking *** on offense - it was far from certain.
There's 4:20 left in the game at that time.

So - you go for it on 4th and 2 from your own 33 - and dont make it  -  for whatever reason - you're gonna be down 30 - 24 right? Barring some "event" -- SEA's got a FG at least - but if you apply the "Well we should never have kicked the ball to SEA cause we'd never would have stopped them" line of thinking - you're gonna be down 34-24. Game over.

So - you kick the ball to the SEA 20. There's 4:11 left - you're down a FG - looking for a stop, a turnover, a break, a mistake, some penalty flags on SEA, divine intervention. I dont know...something. Not outlandish thinking IMO (outside perhaps the divine intervention....dont hold much stock in that).

Dont need to know the averages or the math. Only how the offense was working which was pretty lousy. So they kicked them deep and tried to get a stop with 4mins left.

The wrong play? Certainly how the game ended out. But not as stupid or bad as hindsight affords IMO. If that 4th & 2 happened on a different yard mark - further down the field away from our own EZ and the offense was doing semi-well? The "go for it" odds go up.

 

 

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, Leader said:

That could very well be but football isnt a math equation

I guess that's one philosophical camp.

I am more of a determinist myself. Everything is a math equation.

[Stevein2012]

4 hours ago, Leader said:

That could very well be but football isnt a math equation. 

So - lets look at what at what factored in the decision not to go for it. How the offense was working. 

The drive / possession before our last one - wasnt exactly "hitting on all cylinders" - outside the 57yd bomb to Davante - it was another not much of anything:

1st & 10 at GB 25  - (12:14 - 4th) A.Rodgers pass short right to A.Jones to GB 26 for 1 yard (J.Coleman).
2nd & 9 at GB 26 - (11:26 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to E.St. Brown.
3rd & 9 at GB 26 - (11:23 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass deep right to D.Adams to SEA 17 for 57 yards (SL.Griffin) [J.Reed].
(10:31 - 4th) Timeout #2 by GB at 10:31.
1st & 10 at SEA 17 - (10:31 - 4th) A.Rodgers pass short left to A.Jones to SEA 16 for 1 yard (B.Wagner; F.Clark).
2nd & 9 at SEA 16 - (9:42 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Jones right end pushed ob at SEA 12 for 4 yards (SL.Griffin).
3rd & 5 at SEA 12 - (9:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at SEA 18 for -6 yards (R.Green).
4th & 11 at SEA 18 - (8:23 - 4th) Mason Crosby 36 Yd Field Goal  -  SCORE:  GB 24 - SEA 20

SEA took the ensuing kickoff - drove 75 yards in 3:15mins for the go ahead TD  -  SCORE: SEA 27 - GB 24

So - the last time GB had the ball on offense - another whole lot of nothing working:

1st & 10 at GB 25 - (5:08 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to E.St. Brown.|
2nd & 10 at GB 25 - (5:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 33 for 8 yards (A.Calitro).
3rd & 2 at GB 33 - (4:23 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to M.Valdes-Scantling.
4th & 2 at GB 33 -(4:20 - 4th) J.Scott punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-H.Bradley, Touchback.

Now - would I like to think GB could pick up 2 yards. No question - but given how well they'd been kicking *** on offense - it was far from certain.
There's 4:20 left in the game at that time.

So - you go for it on 4th and 2 from your own 33 - and dont make it  -  for whatever reason - you're gonna be down 30 - 24 right? Barring some "event" -- SEA's got a FG at least - but if you apply the "Well we should never have kicked the ball to SEA cause we'd never would have stopped them" line of thinking - you're gonna be down 34-24. Game over.

So - you kick the ball to the SEA 20. There's 4:11 left - you're down a FG - looking for a stop, a turnover, a break, a mistake, some penalty flags on SEA, divine intervention. I dont know...something. Not outlandish thinking IMO (outside perhaps the divine intervention....dont hold much stock in that).

Dont need to know the averages or the math. Only how the offense was working which was pretty lousy. So they kicked them deep and tried to get a stop with 4mins left.

The wrong play? Certainly how the game ended out. But not as stupid or bad as hindsight affords IMO. If that 4th & 2 happened on a different yard mark - further down the field away from our own EZ and the offense was doing semi-well? The "go for it" odds go up.

 

 

Still by kicking it the best case is get the ball back with probably under 2 minutes left and needing that struggling offense to drive a full field.  Even if we had the Buffalo bills offense the best move was to go for it, it's not like it was 4th and long it was 2 yards, if you don't trust Rodgers then give it to Jones or something.  Punting there with 1 TO is pretty much just giving up, they drove on our defense pretty easily the previous 2 drives so them not getting a stop was pretty likely.

How many offensive coordinators in the league if their coach asked what they wanted to do in this situation do you think would say, "yeah lets just punt it"

[Leader]

32 minutes ago, Stevein2012 said:

Still by kicking it the best case is get the ball back with probably under 2 minutes left and needing that struggling offense to drive a full field.  Even if we had the Buffalo bills offense the best move was to go for it, it's not like it was 4th and long it was 2 yards, if you don't trust Rodgers then give it to Jones or something.  Punting there with 1 TO is pretty much just giving up, they drove on our defense pretty easily the previous 2 drives so them not getting a stop was pretty likely.

Well - you can look as how things possibly would have played out till the cows come home. All things are possible - when they're only possibilities - and it has nothing to do with my personal trust in AR or AJ. My personal beliefs or trust factors dont matter. I've read all the articles citing NFL averages and AJ YPC - got all that - and dont dispute any of it. All I'm saying is the game situation/score - the fact we were on our own 33 yard line down 3pts and there were 4+ minutes left - cant be discounted.

That - plus - and perhaps most importantly - its not like our offense was a fine oiled machine - which is why I posted the drive stats.

To go further - here are the last two drives BEFORE those listed above:

9:50mins left

1st & 10 at GB 45 - (9:50 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to D.Adams.
2nd & 10 at GB 45 - (9:41 - 3rd) A.Jones left end to GB 45 for no gain (J.Reed; A.Calitro).
3rd & 10 at GB 45 - (8:57 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at GB 40 for -5 yards (J.Martin).
4th & 15 at GB 40 - (8:21 - 3rd) J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 20, Center-H.Bradley, fair catch by T.Lockett.

6:36mins left

1st & 10 at GB 34 - (6:36 - 3rd) A.Rodgers pass short right to E.St. Brown ran ob at 50 for 16 yards.
1st & 10 at 50 - (6:03 - 3rd) A.Rodgers sacked at 50 for 0 yards (F.Clark).
2nd & 10 at 50 - (5:15 - 3rd) A.Jones right end to SEA 43 for 7 yards (B.McDougald; B.Wagner).
(4:31 - 3rd) Timeout #1 by GB at 04:31.
3rd & 3 at SEA 43 - (4:31 - 3rd) A.Rodgers sacked at SEA 49 for -6 yards (sack split by A.Calitro and J.Reed).
4th & 9 at SEA 49 - (3:55 - 3rd) J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 3, Center-H.Bradley, downed by GB-T.Brown.

In essence - a whole lot of nothing much / inconsistency on those drives as well.

So you and I can agree what SHOULD happen when having AR on the field. What I'm trying to point out by posting this data is that is wasnt happening.

Now - we can all surmise in our heads how that 4th and 2 play would or should have gone - but you cant divorce those fantasies from what actually was going on in the game with the offense and the very real possibility that we wouldnt have converted.

In which case (to repeat): the game situation/score - the fact we were on our own 33 yard line only down 3pts and there were 4+ minutes left - cant be discounted.

[Leader]

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

I guess that's one philosophical camp.

I am more of a determinist myself. Everything is a math equation.

In a way this is true.

[Leader]

46 minutes ago, Stevein2012 said:

How many offensive coordinators in the league if their coach asked what they wanted to do in this situation do you think would say, "yeah lets just punt it"

To your add on - I dont know. What do you think and why is the question pertinent?