Rodgers First Half Passes (links, no embed)

[squire12]

Rodgers mechanics are sloppy.  Good at times, but feels like they have been deteriorating for a few years.

He can make any throw, but the fundamentals being less precise lead to back foot, side arm delivery at times.

 

[Leader]

6 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Also EQ should absolutely have the option to shut that route down and should take it. His *** should be planted right on that Seahawks logo, hands up ready for the ball.

EQ was open. All AR had to do was throw him the ball. 
EQ was sliding thru the zone - and open - not tearing across the field at a high rate of speed. AR simply doesnt pull the trigger.

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

Rodgers mechanics are sloppy.  Good at times, but feels like they have been deteriorating for a few years.

He can make any throw, but the fundamentals being less precise lead to back foot, side arm delivery at times.

 

My issue is this almost seems like a preference to him. He does it in a clean pocket.

[Packerraymond]

Just now, Leader said:

EQ was open. All AR had to do was throw him the ball. 
EQ was sliding thru the zone - and open - not tearing across the field at a high rate of speed. AR simply doesnt pull the trigger.

That ball still needs to be a dime, you've got safeties in the background with their eyes on Aaron. Throw too far in front or high, pick. He schemes it open but it's a sooooo much harder throw than it has to be.

In a league where HC everywhere are making things easier for their QB, Mac still schemes around Aaron being perfect.

Yes he has to throw that ball, yes it could be made much easier.

[Leader]

3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

My issue is this almost seems like a preference to him. He does it in a clean pocket.

This is exactly correct. The question is why.

Could he have a shoulder problem we're not aware of? He hardly ever seems to put his shoulder into his passes anymore.
Instead he's relying on this side armed "flippers" or "zingers" - which arc to destination.

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, Leader said:

This is exactly correct. The question is why.

Could he have a shoulder problem we're not aware of? He hardly every seems to put his shoulder into his passes anymore.
Instead he's relying on this side armed "flippers" or "zingers" - which arc to destination.

Nah because the bombs to Tonyan and Adams were mighty throws. Unless he just launched them through pain.

[Leader]

1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

That ball still needs to be a dime, you've got safeties in the background with their eyes on Aaron. Throw too far in front or high, pick. He schemes it open but it's a sooooo much harder throw than it has to be.

In a league where HC everywhere are making things easier for their QB, Mac still schemes around Aaron being perfect.

Yes he has to throw that ball, yes it could be made much easier.

Later in the game - late 4th qtr in fact - AJ ran some curl route out of the backfield - sat down on the SEA logo so to speak (or the same central area on the field) - he was open - it would have been a first down - (again) AR didnt throw (him) the ball.

Ya know - it cant be spoon fed to the best QB in the league. The guys gotta throw the damn ball.

[Leader]

1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

Nah because the bombs to Tonyan and Adams were mighty throws. Unless he just launched them through pain.

I agree - but still arent they sidearmed? I think so.

[Leader]

I think our guy is showing signs of getting "Eli-like" gun shy way too early in his career.
Our OL has issues - no doubt about that - but throw the damn ball!

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

1 hour ago, Leader said:

Later in the game - late 4th qtr in fact - AJ ran some curl route out of the backfield - sat down on the SEA logo so to speak (or the same central area on the field) - he was open - it would have been a first down - (again) AR didnt throw (him) the ball.

Ya know - it cant be spoon fed to the best QB in the league. The guys gotta throw the damn ball.

I think sometimes the QB's perspective leads to a different conclusion in real time.  

I wonder if on the play with EQ cutting across the middle if he was worried about Wagner's position and if Wagner could get in front of the ball. 

[badfish69]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

That ball still needs to be a dime, you've got safeties in the background with their eyes on Aaron. Throw too far in front or high, pick. He schemes it open but it's a sooooo much harder throw than it has to be.

In a league where HC everywhere are making things easier for their QB, Mac still schemes around Aaron being perfect.

Yes he has to throw that ball, yes it could be made much easier.

Agree with this 100%.  It should be the job of the coaches to put guys in position to make plays.  12 may be a first ballot hall of famer, but he can't be perfect all the time.

[Leader]

1 hour ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

I think sometimes the QB's perspective leads to a different conclusion in real time.  

I wonder if on the play with EQ cutting across the middle if he was worried about Wagner's position and if Wagner could get in front of the ball. 

Correct - and we can never be certain "what the QB sees and when".

We could drive ourselves to distraction trying to read these tea leaves.

All we can think we know for sure (how's that for a statement.......) is that for whatever reason AR is either missing or bypassing open WRs.

Are they all always running perfect routes? I very much doubt it - but such perfection doesnt exist in the NFL - its a game of improvise and adjust - and they are open. Throw em the damn ball.

He's delivering the ball in odd - or less than conventional methods - which is having varying results - what with the ball being over here ; over there ; in the dirt ; short or over their head.

And that all this is relatively moot because he's got good game day stats.

So go figure.

Fire the coach.

Ha!

Whatever.

It is what it is.

 

[skibrett15]

5 hours ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

I think sometimes the QB's perspective leads to a different conclusion in real time.  

I wonder if on the play with EQ cutting across the middle if he was worried about Wagner's position and if Wagner could get in front of the ball. 

I think on 3rd down when you know it's zone defense and wagner is gonna play his role, you trust wagner to play the guy he can see (kendricks) coming across vs the guy he can't (ESB) running behind him.

Wagner is a great player, but this isn't some secret sauce unique seattle coverage.  They are running their vanilla stuff, the stuff in most of these gifs.  Wagner's job there is to stop a curl slant to the outside WR, and to help and rally onto the flat... it's a D that's well known and prepared for by GB, and assessed presnap with the correct playcall to beat it.  He sees kendricks coming and he saw davante run by him the other way...

To me, the hesitation is completely that ESB isnt slowing down and is basically running himself into coverage by the deep safety.  Rodgers already missed him earlier on a similar concept where he didn't settle down and Rodgers expected that.  So, I dunno, maybe that's a factor, I guess.

 

[Krauser]

Thanks for posting the A22 gifs.

Hope you can put up the 2nd half too, where the offense actually struggled (1st half was 250 yards, 4 scoring drives if Crosby doesn’t miss, 2 punts only one a 3-and-out — so not many failed plays). 

I agree with the idea that Rodgers Is Part of the Problem but I think the analysis here is too harsh.

His mechanics are weird, he doesn’t step into throws, even the deep shots from the pocket to Adams and Jones (TD) are thrown while leaning back (Adams throw) or shuffling his feet and hopping a little (Jones TD). The result in these specific cases was 2 accurate deep completions, so it’s hard to fault the result.  I think the slightly underthrown ball placement is more likely to be deliberate than a mistake. Keeping the ball inside and a little short in those situations makes it easier on the receiver, and an incompletion (if the receiver doesn’t make the catch) has a high chance of producing DPI. Having watched Vikings QBs overthrow open receivers on deep shots (Teddy did all the time, Cousins sometimes makes that mistake too), you want them to err on the side of underthrown. 

The deep TD to Tonyan is one of those plays that just spoils you guys as Packers fans. There aren’t 5 QBs in the last 10 years who make that throw, and Rodgers makes plays like that all the time. The drive was nearly stalled — should’ve been 3rd and 10 from your side of midfield after a throwaway. Instead it’s instantly 6 points. 

I can fault him on a couple of reads. The blitz where he threw short right sideline to Kendricks should’ve gone to the left to ESB. Earlier, the right sideline incompletion to MVS, he should’ve thrown the checkdown (especially on a 1st and 10). As you pointed out, they made that adjustment and he hit Jones in a similar design on the next drive for a big gain. I also see your point on the deep cross to Adams off of play action, but I don’t think the 2 dropping LBs (Seattle is so well trained on cover 3 beaters that they know exactly where to go as soon as they recognize the play action) make this a very high percentage throw, if he does turn it loose.  

There are only 3 failed 3rd down plays (preceding the FG attempt and the 2 punts), and I think you’re too harsh on Rodgers on 2 of them.

• The first, he escapes pressure, finds no one open and throws it away. Worth noting here how quickly Wagner picks up Adams’ shallow crosser and knocks him off stride
• The second is the incomplete over the middle to ESB. I think that’s clearly a route running error by the rookie, who should settle in the hole in the zone where Rodgers throws the ball. 
• The third is the sack with MVS running a shallow cross and Adams a dig in behind him. You’re saying he should’ve thrown earlier in the play to MVS, but Wagner is again sitting on the crossing route. There’s barely any window there, and a throw into that traffic is at least as likely to end up intercepted as a 1st down — even if MVS makes the catch with Wagner in his face he’s going to have to protect the ball, and he’ll likely be a yard short of the sticks. Adams does come open a little later in the play but the pressure has already moved Rodgers off his spot. Ideal mechanics for him given the depth of his dropback would be to hitch up and throw from the 20 at the right hash marks, but both Bulaga and Bell get pushed back to that point — there’s really no room there for him to stand in and make that throw. I think you have to give credit to the Seahawks pass rush here for beating the right side of the OL, and even to Clark on the other side pushing Bakhtiari back into Rodgers lap. They collapse the pocket so quickly that when Wagner robs the 1st read to MVS, Rodgers doesn’t have time to find Adams before trying to slide in the pocket and reset. But Seattle maintains contain and there’s nowhere to go, so he takes the sack. I don’t think this play is in any sense Rodgers’ fault, though maybe it’s fair to say that a more mechanical and less intelligent or creative QB (like Cousins) would’ve thrown into harm’s way targeting MVS, risking the INT and with the best likely upside being 4th and 1.

Summing that up, I don’t find a single significantly inaccurate pass in the 1st half. Two of the deep throws are relatively underthrown but I wouldn’t count that ball placement as a negative, they were both very catchable and both were caught. His mechanics were poor, which I think does come up on inaccurate throws later in the game. A couple of the decisions were wrong (the blitz read, not taking the checkdown the first time), but others were pretty reasonable, and one play where QB and WR were on the wrong page, I think ESB was clearly at fault. The sack wasn’t a bad play by Rodgers either, I don’t think the combination of that pass rush and Wagner taking away the crossing route leads to a first down for almost any offense in the league — sometimes the defense makes a play, and that was one of them. 

On the plus side, the TD to Tonyan was amazing, accuracy and decision making were generally good to excellent, and he beat Wagner to the sideline to convert a 3rd down by scrambling. 

I’d give him an A for the first half. But again, they scored 21 (should’ve been 24) and put up 250 yards on a good defense. I’d like to see your breakdown of the second half, where the game slipped away.

[skibrett15]

9 hours ago, Krauser said:

Hope you can put up the 2nd half too, where the offense actually struggled

Working it up now since this NO PHI game is trash.  Overall I give Rodgers an A grade for this half for breaking down the best defense in the NFL in their home field.

9 hours ago, Krauser said:

The first, he escapes pressure, finds no one open and throws it away.

There's no play to be made here.  Like I said:

"Scrambles right, everyone is covered, nowhere to go with the ball."

9 hours ago, Krauser said:

I think that’s clearly a route running error by the rookie,

My biggest issue here is with MVS not getting the ball.  58 Calitro plays this pretty horribly, and jumps back inside way too quickly.  If Rodgers is reading the middle of the field, he'll see 58 doing the wrong thing and throw this to a wide open MVS in stride.

Play design here is great, running crossers across the middle is exactly what you want to do to disrupt the single high safety the seahawks love to run.

9 hours ago, Krauser said:

You’re saying he should’ve thrown earlier in the play to MVS, but Wagner is again sitting on the crossing route.

he needs to hit this to MVS right at the top of the route/break before he comes into wagner's territory.  It's going to be a contested catch because wagner is an all pro, but given the down and distance, ball needs to come out ON TIME and at the level of the dropback.  The pressure here is really manufactured by Rodgers.  The pocket is clean until he decides to start juking and running (very clear in the 2nd view)  74 gives up initial pushback, but he corrals his guy out of the pocket to the left.  75 gives up some ground, but he's still 1-2 yards from rodgers when he decides to scramble for no real reason.  If we're running timing crossing patterns and you aren't cutting it loose on the MVS route (which is tight but open), you need to hang tight for your second read, which is REALLY OPEN.  On 3rd down ball has to come out when there isn't pressure and you have guys still on their blocks. 

 

Biggest issue for me here is... this is 1 high spy with wagner.  This is MAN COVERAGE with wagner spying rodgers.  Rodgers seems to have no idea or he's panicking under some phantom pressure.  Scrambling is a great idea against 2 man or potentially against cover 3 where the LBs drop too deep.  That is not this situation.  even if Rodgers escapes the pocket, he isn't beating wagner to the sticks.  The instincts here are all wrong.