Jump to content
jrry32

How good is Jared Goff?

Recommended Posts

QBs I would definitely take over Goff (6) (not in an order)

Brady
Rodgers
Mahomes
Brees
Wilson
Rivers

QBs I would need to consider amongst Goff (8)

Watson
Wentz
Roethlisberger
Luck
Cousins
Mayfield
Newton
Ryan

So I could see him anywhere from 7th to 15th.

I probably take him over Mayfield (at least for now), Newton, Cousins, Roethlisberger (going forward), Ryan (going forward). Luck, Watson, and Wentz are all too close for me to call at this time. So I think 7-10 is a fair assessment. For that group of 4.  
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Kay z said:

How so

Because of your modus operandi 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

Looks like Luck's game is still inflated based on pre-draft hype. He isn't a once in a generation talent, and since he came back from his injury, his previously average arm lost zip. He's still a smart QB and a good athlete, but his arm talent at this point is nothing special. Goff is the better QB.

solid opinion. I'd love to see how Luck fairs in McVay's system, with Gurley, Cooks, and Woods. I think it would match  Goff's output and possibly exceed it because of his ability to make plays with his feet. I'd also love to see how Goff faired with Pagano as HC, only TY Hilton to throw to, and very poor o-line play. Both were number 1 picks and Luck had more success in his first year. Eliminating all variables, Luck is the better QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

solid opinion. I'd love to see how Luck fairs in McVay's system, with Gurley, Cooks, and Woods. I think it would match  Goff's output and possibly exceed it because of his ability to make plays with his feet. I'd also love to see how Goff faired with Pagano as HC, only TY Hilton to throw to, and very poor o-line play. Both were number 1 picks and Luck had more success in his first year. Eliminating all variables, Luck is the better QB.

We're not talking about Year 1. Luck is nearly 30 years old. Goff has three year under his belt. As I said, this is all about pre-draft hype. Luck had the best protection in the NFL this year and a solid group of weapons. Goff still outplayed him. Luck's arm doesn't look the same. You're talking about history. I'm talking about the present. Simply put, I don't believe Luck would outplayed Goff if you switched them. He doesn't have the arm to make the throws Goff made throughout this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

We're not talking about Year 1. Luck is nearly 30 years old. Goff has three year under his belt. As I said, this is all about pre-draft hype. Luck had the best protection in the NFL this year and a solid group of weapons. Goff still outplayed him. Luck's arm doesn't look the same. You're talking about history. I'm talking about the present. Simply put, I don't believe Luck would outplayed Goff if you switched them. He doesn't have the arm to make the throws Goff made throughout this year.

Fair enough, let's just compare this season then.

Luck had more yards.

Luck had more TD's

Luck had a higher QBR

Luck had a higher CMP %

Let's compare the playoffs

Andrew Luck in 2 playoff games 425 yards passing 3TD 1 int 56.1%CMP

Jared Goff in 2 playoff games 483 yards passing 1 TD 1 int 58.05% CMP

I'm a Rams fan just like you, but objectively Andrew Luck was better and still is better than Jared Goff. Recency bias because of what he did in the 4th quarter of the Saints game is fueling this although I know you were a Goff homer before he was even drafted so I get it.  Arm not looking the same is just subjective at this point. Statistically, Luck is better and subjectively, he is asked to do more for his team to win. And Luck just turned 29 the end of September. In a world where Brees, Brady, Manning, Ben, Phil are playing well into their late 30's, even 40; he's still young.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Fair enough, let's just compare this season then.

Luck had more yards.

Luck had more TD's

Luck had a higher QBR

Luck had a higher CMP %

Let's compare the playoffs

Andrew Luck in 2 playoff games 425 yards passing 3TD 1 int 56.1%CMP

Jared Goff in 2 playoff games 483 yards passing 1 TD 1 int 58.05% CMP

I'm a Rams fan just like you, but objectively Andrew Luck was better and still is better than Jared Goff. Recency bias because of what he did in the 4th quarter of the Saints game is fueling this although I know you were a Goff homer before he was even drafted so I get it.  Arm not looking the same is just subjective at this point. Statistically, Luck is better and subjectively, he is asked to do more for his team to win. And Luck just turned 29 the end of September. In a world where Brees, Brady, Manning, Ben, Phil are playing well into their late 30's, even 40; he's still young.

Okay, let's compare their seasons. Luck had better bulk stats. Goff had better efficiency stats. Goff's offense was more effective. Goff's team was more effective. And Goff is still alive in the playoffs. Statistically, Goff is better. In terms of team success, Goff is better. In terms of offensive success, Goff is better. All Luck has is bulk stats because he threw the ball a ton.

And you misunderstand my point about age. I'm not saying that Luck is going to decline. I'm saying that I don't care about his rookie season or Goff's. Neither are relevant at this point in time. However, what is relevant is the decline in Luck's arm strength. The eye test tells me Goff is better. The statistics tell me Goff is better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Okay, let's compare their seasons. Luck had better bulk stats. Goff had better efficiency stats. Goff's offense was more effective. Goff's team was more effective. And Goff is still alive in the playoffs. Statistically, Goff is better. In terms of team success, Goff is better. In terms of offensive success, Goff is better. All Luck has is bulk stats because he threw the ball a ton.

And you misunderstand my point about age. I'm not saying that Luck is going to decline. I'm saying that I don't care about his rookie season or Goff's. Neither are relevant at this point in time. However, what is relevant is the decline in Luck's arm strength. The eye test tells me Goff is better. The statistics tell me Goff is better.

CMP% is efficiency...Luck was higher this season. Not sure where you're getting Goff was better.

Goff's offense is a team stat. Not individual and is a sum of parts. Gurley having 21combine TD's attributed to that offensive output (some on passes from Goff).

Goff's team was more effective is a team stat. Not individual.

Goff's team is still alive. Not individual.

 

What you are calling "bulk stats" I am going to call them what everyone else refers to them as, "Individual stats". And they help compare two players of the same position. W.e.man I've known of your Goff homerism for years now and I love the kid, but he's no Andrew Luck. He could be, but we need to see more and we will once he gets paid and we don't have the weapons around him we once dead. Can Goff make others better? Can he elevate a team? Cause Luck has already. Goff is yet to be determined in that regard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:D

@jrry32 i know you've disliked Luck for years, but after this season especially, how can you sit there and just pretend like Luck couldnt even hold Goffs jockstrap?

 

Did we not just see what Luck was able to do this season, where he finally had a good/great OL (which Goff has had the last 2 years). Or having finally gotten just any production from his runningbacks on the ground? I mean, hey, I know Marlon Mack is an elite talent and was the 2017 OPOY and had 21 TDs this year...wait a second. Jk. That was Gurley. Luck also finally had at least one other guy to throw to finally besides TY. The God otherwise known as Eric Ebron. 

I mean come on. What Luck did this year was incredible. You seem to want to ignore stats here (since Luck beats Goff in almost every important one, I understand why you chose to do so. Even though, when it suits you, you love to bring up Goffs stats).

Even by the eye test, Luck was a top 5 QB this season. Goff was easily top 10. But I came away more impressed with Luck. And who cares if Luck is 29? Theyre both still QBs who should have another 10-15 years at least of high level play. 

I mean, prior to the regular season, people on here literally were essentially questioning if Luck would even ever play another down in the NFL. Let alone do what he did this season.

And as far as his arm strength? Stop. His arm was plenty good enough this season.  Good enough to help his team reach the divisional round , in a season in which the Colts were supposed to be a bottom feader because of their perceived "worst roster in the NFL". 

Good enough for him to set the NFL record of number TD passes thrown to different players (13) in a single season. Or to tie Peyton for 2nd most consecutive games with 3+ passing TDs (8). Or to throw for 39 TDs, with a 68% comp pct, with a 6.1 TD % (better than Goffs btw) and a 2.3 INT % (only .2 pts worse than Goff).

So sure, cry bulk stats all you want. But Luck is Better than Goff right now and thats not exactly an insult to Goff. There arent 5 QBs Id take over Luck atm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BStanRamFan said:

CMP% is efficiency...Luck was higher this season. Not sure where you're getting Goff was better.

Goff's offense is a team stat. Not individual and is a sum of parts. Gurley having 21combine TD's attributed to that offensive output (some on passes from Goff).

Goff's team was more effective is a team stat. Not individual.

Goff's team is still alive. Not individual.

 

What you are calling "bulk stats" I am going to call them what everyone else refers to them as, "Individual stats". And they help compare two players of the same position. W.e.man I've known of your Goff homerism for years now and I love the kid, but he's no Andrew Luck. He could be, but we need to see more and we will once he gets paid and we don't have the weapons around him we once dead. Can Goff make others better? Can he elevate a team? Cause Luck has already. Goff is yet to be determined in that regard.

Completion percentage is a poor measure of efficiency. But let's take a look at the efficiency numbers including completion percentage:

Goff

64.9% Comp%

8.4 YPA

12.9 YPC

5.7% TD%

2.1% Int%

101.1 Passer Rating

7.69 ANYPA

Luck

67.3% Comp%

7.2 YPA

10.7 YPC

6.1% TD%

2.3% Int%

98.7 Passer Rating

6.95 ANYPA

Goff is better in every category except comp% and TD%. Why is Luck better in TD%? Because the Rams have 23 rushing TDs to the Colts' 13 rushing TDs. Goff was the more efficient QB.

As for offensive stats, it is universally accepted that the QB is the most important player on the offense. Thus, it is relevant to point out the effectiveness of their respective units. The Rams were a statically better offense across the board. You can call me a Goff homer. I don't care. It's quite clear that you overrate the hell out of Luck. As for the elevating the team BS, we had the best record in the NFL this year and are in the Super Bowl.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, BAConrad said:

:D

@jrry32 i know you've disliked Luck for years, but after this season especially, how can you sit there and just pretend like Luck couldnt even hold Goffs jockstrap?

 

Did we not just see what Luck was able to do this season, where he finally had a good/great OL (which Goff has had the last 2 years). Or having finally gotten just any production from his runningbacks on the ground? I mean, hey, I know Marlon Mack is an elite talent and was the 2017 OPOY and had 21 TDs this year...wait a second. Jk. That was Gurley. Luck also finally had at least one other guy to throw to finally besides TY. The God otherwise known as Eric Ebron. 

Has nothing to do with like or dislike. I call them like I see them. If you're trying to argue that I dislike Luck, you're going to have a hard time selling that one. I was arguing for Luck a few years ago when people started underrating him. Now, he's back to being overrated.

Quote

I mean come on. What Luck did this year was incredible. You seem to want to ignore stats here (since Luck beats Goff in almost every important one, I understand why you chose to do so. Even though, when it suits you, you love to bring up Goffs stats).

I want to ignore stats? Goff has better efficiency numbers across the board, and his bulk numbers are great too. This isn't the case of somebody like Rookie Dak managing the game efficiently. Don't try to favor bulk stats over efficiency stats. I have better things to do than argue with that BS. Just spare me the mental gymnastics. What Luck did this year was incredible in terms of coming back from a possible career-ending injury to play very good football. However, it was not incredible relative to his peers. It's a great narrative, but we're comparing QBs, not narratives. Goff outperformed him.

Quote

Even by the eye test, Luck was a top 5 QB this season. Goff was easily top 10. But I came away more impressed with Luck. And who cares if Luck is 29? Theyre both still QBs who should have another 10-15 years at least of high level play. 

Not by my eye test. I saw an arm that looked like late-career Manning at times.

Quote

I mean, prior to the regular season, people on here literally were essentially questioning if Luck would even ever play another down in the NFL. Let alone do what he did this season.

That's irrelevant. We aren't comparing narratives.

Quote

And as far as his arm strength? Stop. His arm was plenty good enough this season.  Good enough to help his team reach the divisional round , in a season in which the Colts were supposed to be a bottom feader because of their perceived "worst roster in the NFL". 

His arm was not "plenty good" this season.
 

Quote

 

Good enough for him to set the NFL record of number TD passes thrown to different players (13) in a single season. Or to tie Peyton for 2nd most consecutive games with 3+ passing TDs (8). Or to throw for 39 TDs, with a 68% comp pct, with a 6.1 TD % (better than Goffs btw) and a 2.3 INT % (only .2 pts worse than Goff).

So sure, cry bulk stats all you want. But Luck is Better than Goff right now and thats not exactly an insult to Goff. There arent 5 QBs Id take over Luck atm. 

 

I will "cry" bulk stats. Because if you were engaging in a good faith discussion, you wouldn't be trying to elevate bulk stats above efficiency stats for two highly productive QBs. And no, Luck is not top 5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, he's about to play in the Super Bowl, was in MVP talks for a good chunk of the year and just defeated the Saints in New Orleans with no Gurley so I'd have to say... he's adequate. :D

Edited by Calamity_Cometh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Andrew Luck also has the best O-Line in football.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Completion percentage is a poor measure of efficiency. But let's take a look at the efficiency numbers including completion percentage:

Goff

64.9% Comp%

8.4 YPA

12.9 YPC

5.7% TD%

2.1% Int%

101.1 Passer Rating

7.69 ANYPA

Luck

67.3% Comp%

7.2 YPA

10.7 YPC

6.1% TD%

2.3% Int%

98.7 Passer Rating

6.95 ANYPA

Goff is better in every category except comp% and TD%. Why is Luck better in TD%? Because the Rams have 23 rushing TDs to the Colts' 13 rushing TDs. Goff was the more efficient QB.

As for offensive stats, it is universally accepted that the QB is the most important player on the offense. Thus, it is relevant to point out the effectiveness of their respective units. The Rams were a statically better offense across the board. You can call me a Goff homer. I don't care. It's quite clear that you overrate the hell out of Luck. As for the elevating the team BS, we had the best record in the NFL this year and are in the Super Bowl.

Switch the players on each team. Could Luck do what Goff did this year? I think yes. Could Goff do what Luck did? I think not.

We have won games this season in spite of Goff playing poorly. Colts could not win a game if Andrew luck played poorly. Goff could very well pass Luck on my top 10 list in the next few years, but we only know what Goff has done individually and as a team, under optimal conditions (McVay, Cooks, Woods, Gurley, top 5 oline). We've seen Luck succeed despite lack of weaponry, poor coaching, poor oline. Luck's first 3 years in the league were a thing of beauty. Then 2 years hampered with injuries and this year his first year back he made Eric Ebron a pro bowler. That is what I mean by elevating the talent around you. I don't think any sane person could think I'm overrating Andrew Luck lol

As for elevating the team and getting to the superbowl, Goff proved his value last week in the last 3 quarters. Noted. He didn't do much vs Dallas since that was entirely a rushing and defensive performance. The losses against Philly/Chicago that we would of needed to get the #1 seed fall on Goff. I'm not bashing Goff, he's in my top 10. But better than Andrew Luck, he is not. Do not let team success and recency bias let you think otherwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Switch the players on each team. Could Luck do what Goff did this year? I think yes. Could Goff do what Luck did? I think not.

I think no and yes. Guess what? None of that matters. This is pure conjecture. The facts show that Goff was the more efficient QB who led a much more effective offense.

Quote

We have won games this season in spite of Goff playing poorly. Colts could not win a game if Andrew luck played poorly.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809160was.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201812160clt.htm

Quote

Goff could very well pass Luck on my top 10 list in the next few years, but we only know what Goff has done individually and as a team, under optimal conditions (McVay, Cooks, Woods, Gurley, top 5 oline). We've seen Luck succeed despite lack of weaponry, poor coaching, poor oline. Luck's first 3 years in the league were a thing of beauty. Then 2 years hampered with injuries and this year his first year back he made Eric Ebron a pro bowler. That is what I mean by elevating the talent around you. I don't think any sane person could think I'm overrating Andrew Luck lol

We're not talking about the Andrew Luck for three to five years ago. Again, you don't seem to accept that.

Quote

As for elevating the team and getting to the superbowl, Goff proved his value last week in the last 3 quarters. Noted. He didn't do much vs Dallas since that was entirely a rushing and defensive performance. The losses against Philly/Chicago that we would of needed to get the #1 seed fall on Goff. I'm not bashing Goff, he's in my top 10. But better than Andrew Luck, he is not. Do not let team success and recency bias let you think otherwise.

How close did Andrew Luck come to the #1 seed? Note that the Colts were ranked #10 in points allowed and #11 in yards per game allowed.

Edited by jrry32

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Solidly in tier 2. Probably on the upper half of the tier.

Really good, but no elite.

Being in tier 2 is all that really matters because that means your team can win a Super Bowl.

Edited by WindyCity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.



×