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How good is Jared Goff?


jrry32

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9 minutes ago, Non-Issue said:

I usually see these types of comparisons when someone is bagging on a player. Like a "Goff sucks" comment with a "Well, it's not like Brady was lighting up the world in his first 3 seasons" kind of thing in response. But I totally agree with your whole post. 

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The weird part of all this is that I've never seen a young QB who has done what Goff has thus far in his career get so little credit. I get that I am a "Goff homer," but I believe the lack of respect he's given is due to his rookie season. Imagine if Goff didn't play at all as a rookie and did what he has the past two years. I feel quite confident that people would be hyping him up. In his second and third seasons in the NFL, Goff has 8000+ yards and 60 TDs. That's an average of 4000+ yards and 30 TDs. He's one of three QBs in NFL history to do that:

http://pfref.com/tiny/Vw9Bw

Now, I get that this is an era where passing is significantly easier. I get that this is an era where passing numbers are only getting more and more inflated. Regardless, there's something to be said for how productive and efficient Goff has been. There are a number of other young QBs who haven't been able to do what he did. There are a number of other QBs who came up after the rule changes favoring passing came about who haven't been able to do what Goff has. You can see how his numbers stack up to others:

http://pfref.com/tiny/AUmvt

Hell, just compare him to Russell Wilson.

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11 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I agree. However, I think it's relevant to bring up their early careers when people say that Goff won't ever be that good. The point isn't to say that he will be. It's to say that nobody has any clue. None of us could have looked at Brees, Brady, Manning, etc. at Goff's age and said they would be what they became. It's not like Goff lacks an attribute that would prevent him from being a HOFer. We just have to wait and see if he can reach that level of greatness. Nobody can say at this point in his career. Obviously, outperforming Brady and winning the Super Bowl after outperforming Brees in the NFCCG would be a nice step in that direction.

I think the reason people say things like that is because those all time greats reached a pinnacle and maintained a level of success that few ever will.

I agree Goff is off to a great start....and could very well be a HOFer.     Its very doubtful he ends up having the overall success Brady has had, but that doesnt really mean much considering Brady's success in this league is unprecedented .    Overall, though, I dont see how anyone could look at Goff's first 3 years (even if his rookie year was forgettable) and say that he has no chance of being considered an all time great.     I guess I can understand the reluctance, but there is no denying that he is off to HOF caliber START to his career.   Whether or not he maintains this trajectory is another story....but its a safe bet he will, barring major injury.

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5 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

I think the reason people say things like that is because those all time greats reached a pinnacle and maintained a level of success that few ever will.

I agree Goff is off to a great start....and could very well be a HOFer.     Its very doubtful he ends up having the overall success Brady has had, but that doesnt really mean much considering Brady's success in this league is unprecedented .    Overall, though, I dont see how anyone could look at Goff's first 3 years (even if his rookie year was forgettable) and say that he has no chance of being considered an all time great.     I guess I can understand the reluctance, but there is no denying that he is off to HOF caliber START to his career.   Whether or not he maintains this trajectory is another story....but its a safe bet he will, barring major injury.

Agreed. I don't think it's fair to any QB to expect them to do what Brady has. It is such an anomaly.

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13 hours ago, jrry32 said:

In his second and third seasons in the NFL, Goff has 8000+ yards and 60 TDs. That's an average of 4000+ yards and 30 TDs. He's one of three QBs in NFL history to do that:

http://pfref.com/tiny/Vw9Bw

This is less impressive than it seems. Blake Bortles was two TDs short (but had 5 rushing TDs). Andy Dalton was 38 yards short. Derek Carr was 54 yards short and would have made it if he didn't get sat for a game. None of these QBs are what I would call great, and they each nearly did it recently.

Next year, barring injury, we know Mahomes is joining the list. It's also very possible Baker Mayfield hits that total, in seasons 1 and 2. Carson Wentz only missed out because he got injured twice.

When we're talking four guys in a two year period being capable of doing something that had only been done three times before, and three mediocre QBs of recent coming extremely close to matching the feat, the luster comes off significantly.

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2 hours ago, pwny said:

This is less impressive than it seems. Blake Bortles was two TDs short (but had 5 rushing TDs). Andy Dalton was 38 yards short. Derek Carr was 54 yards short and would have made it if he didn’t get sat for a game. None of these QBs are what I would call great, and they each nearly did it recently. 

Next year, barring injury, we know Mahomes is joining the list. It’s also very possible Baker Mayfield hits that total in seasons 1 and 2. Carson Wentz only missed out because he got injured twice.

When we’re talking four guys in a two year period being capable of doing something that had only been done three times before, and three mediocre QBs of recent coming extremely close to matching the feat, the luster comes off significantly.

 

Are you considering the wins? Goff is among the top of the league is wins over the past two seasons. The Rams lead the NFL with the most road wins in the past two seasons. Goff is 2nd behind Brees in 4th quarter/OT comebacks this season. The Rams have never lost a game this season when they have led at some point in the 4th quarter. That’s impressive considering the Rams are I think (8-1) in games decided by a single possession and that one loss was against the Eagles where they never led in the 4th quarter and Goff was one completed pass in the endzone to Reynolds and a made XP by Zeurlein from tying the game and coming from behind down 17pts in the 4th quarter.

So yes you can only point to stats too and I’m sure those other QBs will add to that list as well, but what about the wins that follow? Goff has the wins with the stats. That’s what separates him from those other young QBs.

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10 hours ago, Non-Issue said:

See... this is the weird reaction you get when you mention a young player and an all time great. Like if I were to say (and this is just for the sake of the discussion), "Goff and Brady have a similar release" I would inevitably get that guy who is like, "Whoa man! Slow down! Goff is nowhere near as good as Brady. Jesus, man! Pump the brakes!!! You gonna put him in Canton tomorrow or what?!?!?"

"I was just comparing their release."

"Whoa, whoa, whoa! HoFer Goff is clearly the GOAT now, huh?"

Rightfully so there should be a weird reaction comparing the GOAT to a guy like Goff. Comparing a release (a player trait) and an overall player (over a significant period of time in this case) are not remotely the same thing.

Here's another example to keep this in perspective:

Tyreek Hill has similar explosiveness to Randy Moss. Tyreek Hill reminds me of a young Randy Moss

The first statement is accurate, the second statement is laughable.

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6 hours ago, pwny said:

This is less impressive than it seems. Blake Bortles was two TDs short (but had 5 rushing TDs). Andy Dalton was 38 yards short. Derek Carr was 54 yards short and would have made it if he didn’t get sat for a game. None of these QBs are what I would call great, and they each nearly did it recently. 

Next year, barring injury, we know Mahomes is joining the list. It’s also very possible Baker Mayfield hits that total in seasons 1 and 2. Carson Wentz only missed out because he got injured twice.

When we’re talking four guys in a two year period being capable of doing something that had only been done three times before, and three mediocre QBs of recent coming extremely close to matching the feat, the luster comes off significantly.

 

Great response. People seem to downplay how significantly the NFL has changed in recent years for QBs to put up huge numbers.

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11 hours ago, Non-Issue said:

So, in your opinion, what QBs compare favorably to Brady when just considering their first 3 seasons?

In my opinion I'm not comparing anyone to Brady through their 1st 3 seasons. It's a silly comparison to make. The odds of said player ever continuing to improve to where Brady has ascended to are slim to none even if they put up a comparable first 3 seasons as a starter (2 Super Bowl MVP's, lead the NFL in Touchdowns, etc)

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We will find out exactly who Goff is in a week. He is going against a Belichick defense in the biggest game of his life. He either shows up or crumbles.

He did well against the saints but this is a whole new ball game. If he plays well and wins I could put him as high as 6. If he chokes and crumbles as low as 15. 

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3 hours ago, tyler735 said:

In my opinion I'm not comparing anyone to Brady through their 1st 3 seasons. It's a silly comparison to make. The odds of said player ever continuing to improve to where Brady has ascended to are slim to none even if they put up a comparable first 3 seasons as a starter (2 Super Bowl MVP's, lead the NFL in Touchdowns, etc)

You do realize in Year 3 when he led the league in tds his team went (9-7) and Brady didnt make a Pro-Bowl, win MVP, or even make an All-Pro team. Btw his league leading td was 28. Again it took him until his 7th season of starting to even break 4000yds passing and 30 passing tds. Oh and his first year as the starter which was in Year 2, 21 QBs had more passing yards than him, 13 QBs had more passing tds than him, and he was sacked the 4th most in the NFL but yet that season he did make the Pro Bowl for some reason. Not mention by the end of that season the Pats were the ones raising the trophy and celebrating the Superbowl. 

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10 hours ago, pwny said:

This is less impressive than it seems. Blake Bortles was two TDs short (but had 5 rushing TDs). Andy Dalton was 38 yards short. Derek Carr was 54 yards short and would have made it if he didn't get sat for a game. None of these QBs are what I would call great, and they each nearly did it recently.

Next year, barring injury, we know Mahomes is joining the list. It's also very possible Baker Mayfield hits that total, in seasons 1 and 2. Carson Wentz only missed out because he got injured twice.

When we're talking four guys in a two year period being capable of doing something that had only been done three times before, and three mediocre QBs of recent coming extremely close to matching the feat, the luster comes off significantly.

Yet, none of them actually did it. I could denigrate any accomplishment by picking players who got close but didn't actually do it. Moreover, Dalton and Bortles didn't put up efficiency numbers that were even close to Goff's. I already showed Goff's efficiency numbers. He produced those bulk stats while producing efficiency numbers that were on par with just about anyone.

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28 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Yet, none of them actually did it.

Because they're mediocre at best QBs. If guys who barely crack the top 20 or so are coming extremely close to striking distance, and doing so at a much higher rate than ever previously, the stat doesn't mean anything anymore. And yes, they haven't done it yet, but Mahomes and Mayfield are about guaranteed to both hit the target next year. This isn't an elite club anymore. It's going to be a new benchmark for good vs bad QBs at all.

26 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I could denigrate any accomplishment by picking players who got close but didn't actually do it.

Okay. Let's compare to some other restricted milestones. Show me the RBs that got really close to 2k yards that weren't actually good RBs. Only three QBs have also hit 50 TDs; the same number who have hit your stat for Goff. Show me the ones that got really close that were actually mediocre. 

I have Goff somewhere between 5 and 8 based on the last two seasons. But this stat isn't indicative of anything.

 

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