Saint's playoff picture - 2018

[SWATcha]

41 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

As of week 15, with 2 weeks to go, The NFC looks like this:
#1 Saints 12-2 (Saints win the head to head over the Rams if the W/L column is the same)
Saints remaining schedule (Steelers, Panthers). Not an easy schedule, and our opponents are still playing for a hot spot.
A Saints win and a Bears loss (at any point moving forward) will secure the #2 seed. If the Saints win out, they retain the #1 seed. The Saint WILL hold at least #2 with 2 more wins.

Saints only need to win 1 of the next 2 to secure the #1 seed.

[navysaintsfan]

I feel like they need to pull out all the stops against the Steelers. Locking up the 1st round Bye right now would allow them to rest everyone who needs it in Week 17, essentially giving them two weeks off to get healthy before the Divisional round. Would be huge, especially for our OLine right now.

[nolaexpat]

We're going to get another desperate team, though. Pit cannot afford to lose so they're going to bring everything they have. Our D is playing really well but our offense is most definitely not. Maybe being back in the dome will lift us. I can see this being a close, late-decided game though. We haven't put anyone away comfortably since Atlanta back in November and I don't see the road getting easier now. That said, we can and should win and give our guys some rest. 

[Mid Iowa]

We just need Payton to trust the run, for the love of God.
And so he won't and we'll keep Big Ben on the field and take it down to the wire.

[Jlowe22]

Cam will be out for the next game, so we're pretty much guaranteed 1 seed barring total collapse.  It isn't completely necessary to beat the Steelers, but I think it would help morale a ton to see our offense come out and play a good game, win or lose.  

[Saint_Anger13]

I like this matchup. The Steelers weren’t great in that game against the Patriots. The Saints defense should get nasty, just a feeling I have I suppose. I do agree that the offense should just run, especially with Watt on the line or roaming. He was pretty good last week. 

[Fray32]

On 11/26/2018 at 1:07 PM, sammymvpknight said:

Remember 2009 when the Vikings were unbeatable but lost against the Alshon-Marshall led Bears, allowing the Saints to claim home field advantage? The Rams absolutely can be beat...just limit Gurley and Donald. There has to be at least one team in their path that can do that. 

that seemed way too old for Alshon, but I looked that game up and I do remember Jay Cutler coming through for once and slinging passes all over the field, most notably the game winning touchdown to a REAL next man, it wasn't Devin Hester, I want to guess before I actually look at the box score... some Seyj Ajirotutu sounding guy with dreads and a D in his name.

Devin Aromashadu ! I was thinking 2009 might even predate Marshall's time with the Bears and that was indeed the case. Their leader in targets was a pre-Carolina Greg Olsen.

[sammymvpknight]

37 minutes ago, Fray32 said:

that seemed way too old for Alshon, but I looked that game up and I do remember Jay Cutler coming through for once and slinging passes all over the field, most notably the game winning touchdown to a REAL next man, it wasn't Devin Hester, I want to guess before I actually look at the box score... some Seyj Ajirotutu sounding guy with dreads and a D in his name.

Devin Aromashadu ! I was thinking 2009 might even predate Marshall's time with the Bears and that was indeed the case. Their leader in targets was a pre-Carolina Greg Olsen.

Wow...you’re right. I must be thinking about a different important Bears spoiler game. 

[Mid Iowa]

Yeah, I skipped the weekly update on Tuesday.

16 weeks in the books. 
THE SAINTS!!! still hold the #1 spot! This can't change

As of week 16, the final regular season games are all today.

#1 Saints 13-2 Today's game against the Panther is only meaningful to the players who are building their resumes. This game has no seeding importance.
The only cool thing that could happen today is the Saints could go 14-2 for the first time in team history.
#2 Rams 12-3 A bit of a repeat, the season is showing it's length. The Rams are no longer our most dangerous competition, the Bears are.
Rams need to win today to keep the #2, with the Bears right on their tail, and the Bears hold the tie breaker.
#3 Bears 11-4 The Bears and Vikings battle it out big today. This is one of two hot games today. The Bears playing for a shot at #2, and the Vikings playing to stay in the playoffs.
They are at least locked into the #3 spot, but could get the #2 today with some help from the Rams, if the Rams lose.
#4 Cowboys 9-6 The Cowboys will hold the #4 spot regardless of what everyone else does, by way of clinching their division.
Now they're looking at next week. Will they host the Seahawks, Vikings, or Eagles?
#5 Seahawks 9-6 The Seahawks are playing to retain the #5 spot, but which spot do they really want?
The #5 will send them to Dallas, whereas the #6 would send them to Chicago (if today's standings hold) or possibly LA. You know they'd love to play in LA, but Dallas would likely be the better game for them. 
#6 Vikings 8-6-1 These guys are playing not only for the playoffs, but also for ego. They've been beat up, and will get beat up again today, but with a different outlook. Can they upset the Bears in the indoors of Minneapolis? The Vikings are nearly in a must win situation. If they win, they're in! If they tie, they're in. If they lose, they need the Eagles to lose, too, or they're out.

Contenders
#7 Eagles 8-7 The only hope for the Eagles is a win over the lowly Redskins, and a Vikings loss.

The Bears vs. Vikings is easily the NFC Game of the Week!!

[Jlowe22]

My confidence in this team is as low as it's been all year.  I'm not sure we can score 45 on the Rams again, and I have no faith vs the Bears.  Even the other three teams are looking like they might have chance at this point.  I'm glad the Rams and Bears will have to play each other, because I don't think we could beat both of them back to back.  I think Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks vs our beat up oline is going to be a catastrophe.

If we can get out of the NFC, I have more faith against the AFC teams.  KC defense is garbage, and the Pats have been inconsistent all season.  Chargers can be scary, but they have a long road to go through.

[nolaexpat]

We did just hang 31 on a very good Steeler's team playing with AB and for their lives. When it mattered, we got the turnover. This offense isn't as strong as the 09 offense for sure, and its far easier to shut it down completely it seems. Statistically the D is better but we've also played from behind in the last few weeks a lot.

Don't lose hope yet. Let's see what the playoffs bring. The game today was meaningless. We're likely looking at either Seattle or Dallas coming to our place to hang out in two weeks and we can beat either of those teams. Not gonna be easy but we can do it. This is the best possible scenario we could have, being at home throughout, so chin up and keep the faith. You gotta believe!

[Jlowe22]

17 minutes ago, nolaexpat said:

We did just hang 31 on a very good Steeler's team playing with AB and for their lives. When it mattered, we got the turnover. This offense isn't as strong as the 09 offense for sure, and its far easier to shut it down completely it seems. Statistically the D is better but we've also played from behind in the last few weeks a lot.

Don't lose hope yet. Let's see what the playoffs bring. The game today was meaningless. We're likely looking at either Seattle or Dallas coming to our place to hang out in two weeks and we can beat either of those teams. Not gonna be easy but we can do it. This is the best possible scenario we could have, being at home throughout, so chin up and keep the faith. You gotta believe!

I think our problem on offense is just no depth anywhere except maybe RB.  Washington looks good.  The 09 offense had a deep receiving corps, even if none of them were on Thomas's level.  Colston, Moore, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas.  You couldn't shut everybody down.  You only have to shut Thomas down on this offense to kill the passing game.  With Ginn back it'll be better, but the oline still has to give Ginn time to get down field.

I'm just looking at the matchups and our oline hasnt looked good for a while now and we are gonna have to go through some great pass rushers.  The first time we played the Rams the oline dominated the game.  I think Peat was getting help with Donald in the game, and he won't get that help with Armstead out and the line shuffled around.

Still though, we're 1 seed for a reason, and 1 guy going down shouldn't tank our chances.

[nolaexpat]

I remember being very worried down the stretch in 09, too. I'd walked out of the Washington game in disgust. I was furious. My sister chased me down as I was getting in my car screaming that Suisham had missed the chip shot and we had a chance. I remember losing to Dallas and then fighting and losing to the Bucs at home. It felt like we couldn't do anything right. Hell, we'd almost lost to The Rams who were just godawful that year. The end of that season was draining, as good as the first part had been. Minnesota losing to Chicago meant we didn't have to play in week 17 but until then, the 1 seed was in doubt.

So you could shut down the 09 offense and by the end of the regular season, teams had started to figure out how to do it. Our creativity on all sides of the ball was what ultimately separated us and enabled the run. Sean and Drew had weeks to plan for Arizona and it showed. This year, perhaps, our toughest playoff opponent will be one of our first (Dallas/Seattle) and we'll have two weeks to prep again, to get healthy, to remember how to scheme and how to fight. Everyone is 0-0 again for this run and we're counting on those two, who have done this together before, to work magic again.

Two wins and we play in Atlanta in February. Three wins and it's two-dat! Every offense can be stopped but I gotta believe we're the most creative team in these playoffs. There isn't any team  in the NFC that we can't beat comfortably in the dome and the next two are all set to come to us. LET'S GO!

[Mid Iowa]

^^^This^^^
Every team seems to be struggling a bit. Seattle just lost a weird one a few weeks ago. Same with the Rams, the Cheifs, the Bears losing to the Giants right after they beat the Rams, and so on.

It's easy to look at our team as being weak, or glass is half empty because we study our own team. We know the potential, and when we don't see it, it gets disappointing. That's just human.

All that asside, look at the teams we're facing, and look at the offense we'll be facing. Yes, defense travels, but look at the young signal callers that have not idea what to expect in NOLA.

Jerod Goff (Rams) - A 3rd year guy with only 1 playoff game under his belt, and it was a loss. He folds under pressure.
Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) - a 2nd year guy without a playoff game at all, and he's greatly aided by a killer defense, much like Goff.
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) - a 3rd year guy with 1 playoff game. Also aided by a good defense, and good running back. Very inconsistent, but scary.
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) - This is the scary one to me. I think we can beat their defense, but Wilson is proven, and he's flat out good. 
Nick Foles (Eagles) - Nick is also an experienced guy, but a suspect defense that we already clobbered once this year. We can do that again.

Everyone is beatable, and IMO, Wilson is the scariest led offense we'll be facing.
 

[tyler735]

Yeah I'm not ready to jump on the "panic bandwagon". Our Offensive Line has plenty of time to recover now along with everyone else with this long stretch off. We have Ted Ginn back which changes our offense dramatically, and how defenses play us. He made some huge plays for us against Pittsburgh, and gives us a legit deep threat that forces defenses to actually fear the possibility of being beaten deep. Watching other NFC playoff teams play recently, they have also struggled some.

Jared Goff has been very inconsistent the 2nd half of the season, and has played a large role in the Rams losing some games. Gurley is questionable from a health standpoint right now. Their defense has given up 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games.

The Bears have a stellar defense, but also have to play us at home, which is a much more favorable match-up for us. I don't envision Trubisky and the Bears offense putting up many points against our team at home.

The Cowboys edged us out earlier this year, but similar to the Bears, I just don't see Prescott leading his team to victory against us at home. As long as our OL is healthy (especially Terron Armstead, we have a good shot at winning against the Bears/Cowboys).

The Seahawks just don't strike me as anything special this year. Sure Russell Wilson is a great QB, but their defense isn't what it was in their glory days, and their offensive weapons are nothing special.

The Eagles seem to have caught fire at the right time. I'm glad we play them at home if we are matched up against them. They have much of the same team from last year, and are starting to play like it. I think this might be our biggest challenge in the playoffs if we face them. I know we blew them out before, but I don't see that happening again.

The road to the super bowl would undoubtedly be tough, but I think our odds are still the best right now.