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broncosfan07

Pittsburgh @ Denver GDT--Maybe we don't suck?

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Being at home gives us a chance to win and try to climb back to even.

 

Not sure if it's sad or funny to think this team as bad as it has been at times is 2 plays away from being 6-4 but also 4 points away from being 2-8. 

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Just a hunch but I think Big Ben may well be our QBOTF.

He'd sure look good in orange and blue.

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I know one thing - our throwback unis vs. PIT's throwbacks, it's going to hurt my eyes.  :D

Anyways, pretty similar issues this week, but we get HFA, to help give our pass rush a little edge, and we'll need it.   Things to watch for:

 

1.  PIT's OL vs. our pass pro - that half-beat longer to get off the line, can we take advantage?  We absolutely need it, because PIT has the 2nd ranked OL for pass pro by DVOA, with a sub-4 percent sack rate.    Big Ben helps that with his ability to shrug off arm/hand tackles, but if we were @PIT, we'd probably get neutralized in a big way.  With HFA, there's a chance...and that's crucial, because of....

2. PIT's depth at WR/TE - not only did AB own CHJ back in 2015 when they were at their peak, JuJu Smith-Schuster is a top 5 slot WR, and Vance McDonald is a horrible mismatch for our TE coverage.   Old Man Gates got 5-80...that's scary to think what a top 5 slot and an actual physical mismatch could do.   We really need pressure if we want to contain PIT's D.   

3.  RB James Conner - he's no Le'veon Bell, but he's very good in his own right.   Dual threat, gets what is there, and has a nose to fall forward and get skinny in between the tackles.   If PIT gets the lead, they don't have to be a 1-D aerial show.

On the flip side....

1.  Our OL vs. their pass rush - believe or not, DEN does not have the top pass rush unit by DVOA - that honor belongs to the PIT D.   Thier DE's Tuitt & Heyward do a nice job of getting interior push, and TJ Watt is a beast (Dupree is too one-dimensional overall, but yes, he's a serviceable Robin to Watt's Batman).   To say that our OL's peformance vs. LAC and Bosa/Ingram/Nwosu was a shocker is an understatement.   We get HFA to help them more, but this is a less glamorous, but similar challenge to see if the gains are real.

2.  Sanders vs. Hilton, Sutton vs. Haden - who would have thought Joe Haden still had good play left in him?  He blanked Julio Jones for 3Q's, and he's shadowing the top outside WR.   Meanwhile, Mike Hilton has enabled them to truly embrace man coverage (something they could have dearly used all those years vs. TB12) - he's at worst above-average slot CB, and while he's not elite yet, it's impressive to see him progress this quickly, not even 25 years old yet.    Meanwhile, while our supporting cast made a few big plays late, right now it's really the Sanders & Sutton show - so how they fare against Haden & Sutton will be key.  Otherwise, the rest of PIT's secondary is vulnerable, which does make it interesting to see how our supporting cast fares against their lesser cover guys.  Of course, that's assuming...

3.  Keenum limits the mistakes - it's too much to ask that he can be a true gunslinger, at this stage we just need to find a way to limit the damage he creates with late reads / poor placement.   Avoiding coverage sacks, costly TO's, that's on #4.    Of course, this is much easier if we...

4.  Get the run game going - PIT is actually decent vs. the run, a byproduct of how good Heyward (complete DL guy) and Tuitt (more of a run stuffer, but he's got some inside push) really help that D out.  The one area where PIT's D gets exploited in their front 7 is at ILB - they really, really, really miss Ryan Shazier.   If there's an area to exploit, it's trying to wear out PIT's D with the run game in altitude.

Of course, TO's, field position, and coaching will be key - I am still stunned how Mike McCoy-esque the Chargers playcalling (and Rivers turning a Keenum-like mistake fest in the 4Q) gave us a chance to win when they had the game in the bag.  But that's the game, so no doubt winning the TO battle and HFA would give us a shot versus a team that outside of their ILB corps and secondary depth, just smashes our roster.  

In the end, barring a TO/mistake-fest, PIT gets the 3-point edge deservedly so, I'd guess we'll keep it close, and in line with our team's character, keep it close within 1 score, but ultimately, barring an edge in mistakes by PIT, we fall something like 27-20.    I don't mind if we lose, as long as the guys learn and play hard.  So, while it's painful to watch Keenum realizing there are no other options for ROS, with more youth getting more time, I'll be looking to see if Wilkinson can keep up his progress, and how our other young guys are progressing (if Sutton does well vs. Haden, will tip my cap, can't believe I'm saying that this year lol, he discovered the fountain of youth).

Edited by Broncofan

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Same plan as the last game - stop the run, get after the QB on 3rd down and 5+, don't turn the ball over on Offense and hope we're still in the game come the 4th Quarter.

Slight 'out there' prediction - Courtland Sutton goes off in this game. I expect us to feed him early on quick slants (from the left of our formation) to try and negate TJ Watt whilst also bolting on to our running game. 

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20 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Just a hunch but I think Big Ben may well be our QBOTF.

He'd sure look good in orange and blue.

Hope not. Can't stand the guy as a person and he's probably close to breaking down. 

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2 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

Hope not. Can't stand the guy as a person and he's probably close to breaking down. 

I don't know, it just seems to fit Elways MO. Keep building a strong D and OL through the draft. Clear out cap space, add a good HC, then in 2020 make a run at Ben and go all in on FA's to fill holes. 

It's worked for him before.

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1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

I don't know, it just seems to fit Elways MO. Keep building a strong D and OL through the draft. Clear out cap space, add a good HC, then in 2020 make a run at Ben and go all in on FA's to fill holes. 

It's worked for him before.

Big Ben in 2020 I want no part of. He's right he's starting to break down. Honestly, if theres a vet qb worth nabbing elway will consider it. 

I could see a deal with Detroit I mean they can't even beat a backup in Chase Daniel. Maybe they wanna blow it up soon and start over.

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On 11/22/2018 at 8:56 PM, AKRNA said:

I don't know, it just seems to fit Elways MO. Keep building a strong D and OL through the draft. Clear out cap space, add a good HC, then in 2020 make a run at Ben and go all in on FA's to fill holes. 

It's worked for him before.

The odds of us gettng a HOF in FA again is slim to none. Peyton Manning being a free agent in 2012 saw a bunch of special circumstances that's unlikely to happen again. 

Our best bet for a franchise QB is to draft one high.

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1 hour ago, BroncoSojia said:

The odds of us gettng a HOF in FA again is slim to none. Peyton Manning being a free agent in 2012 saw a bunch of special circumstances that's unlikely to happen again. 

Our best bet for a franchise QB is to draft one high.

I understand the feeling, but I don't get the reasoning. Why would you think that?

As a franchise Denvers only been to the playoffs twice with drafted QB's and only won 1 game. All other appearances have been with QB's that were acquired in trade or FA's. Thats 20 playoff appearances with Morton, Elway and Manning. Eight SB appearances and 3 wins.

Anyway, history would disagree with you.

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36 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

I understand the feeling, but I don't get the reasoning. Why would you think that?

As a franchise Denvers only been to the playoffs twice with drafted QB's and only won 1 game. All other appearances have been with QB's that were acquired in trade or FA's. Thats 20 playoff appearances with Morton, Elway and Manning. Eight SB appearances and 3 wins.

Anyway, history would disagree with you.

You want us to bypass drafting a QB and wait for a HOF QB to be available in FA, or trade for a rookie QB right after a team has drafted him? What are the odds of either of these two things happening? 

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50 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

I understand the feeling, but I don't get the reasoning. Why would you think that?

As a franchise Denvers only been to the playoffs twice with drafted QB's and only won 1 game. All other appearances have been with QB's that were acquired in trade or FA's. Thats 20 playoff appearances with Morton, Elway and Manning. Eight SB appearances and 3 wins.

Anyway, history would disagree with you.

The 3 players you named were top 5 picks and 2 of them #1 overall picks.  Denver may have acquired them in odd ways, but all high draft picks, why not just draft one for yourself?

And while Denver traded for Elway, he was basically their #1 draft pick in ‘83 and never played for another team.

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1 hour ago, germ-x said:

The 3 players you named were top 5 picks and 2 of them #1 overall picks.  Denver may have acquired them in odd ways, but all high draft picks, why not just draft one for yourself?

And while Denver traded for Elway, he was basically their #1 draft pick in ‘83 and never played for another team.

You're kind of making my point germ-x. Elway and Manning were absolutely generational talents, the closest thing to "can't miss" as you can get. Elway couldn't win a SB until Shanahan put an excellent team around him. Manning needed the same.

I guess the highlighted is the question, just how do you do that? There's probably not a higher failure rate among all sports than QB's drafted in the top 10. It's just not that simple. There's been over 50 of them drafted in the top 10 in the last 30 years and outside of the Manning brothers and Aikman I don't think any have won SB's and about half of them are spectacular busts.

If it were an exact science I'd be all for it. It's anything but. Odds are under 10% success of drafting a SB winning QB high. You've got a far better chance of drafting one mid to low and developing him. Additionally, missing on a mid round pick is no where near as damaging to a franchise as squandering a top pick on a QB bust.

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51 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

You're kind of making my point germ-x. Elway and Manning were absolutely generational talents, the closest thing to "can't miss" as you can get. Elway couldn't win a SB until Shanahan put an excellent team around him. Manning needed the same.

I guess the highlighted is the question, just how do you do that? There's probably not a higher failure rate among all sports than QB's drafted in the top 10. It's just not that simple. There's been over 50 of them drafted in the top 10 in the last 30 years and outside of the Manning brothers and Aikman I don't think any have won SB's and about half of them are spectacular busts.

If it were an exact science I'd be all for it. It's anything but. Odds are under 10% success of drafting a SB winning QB high. You've got a far better chance of drafting one mid to low and developing him. Additionally, missing on a mid round pick is no where near as damaging to a franchise as squandering a top pick on a QB bust.

It is a high bust rate because it’s the most difficult position in all of sports to play, but I don’t think that means you just decide not to select one and bank on a quality player hitting FA.

Drafting mid/late round projects and banking on developing them has just as high a bust rate as taking one top 10 or in the 1st round.  This strategy also hasn’t led to more SB victories.  There are 32 NFL winning starting QBs, half of that 32 were 1st round picks.  So the argument that 1st round picks don’t win SBs doesn’t really hold water.

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4 minutes ago, germ-x said:

It is a high bust rate because it’s the most difficult position in all of sports to play, but I don’t think that means you just decide not to select one and bank on a quality player hitting FA.

Drafting mid/late round projects and banking on developing them has just as high a bust rate as taking one top 10 or in the 1st round.  This strategy also hasn’t led to more SB victories.  There are 32 NFL winning starting QBs, half of that 32 were 1st round picks.  So the argument that 1st round picks don’t win SBs doesn’t really hold water.

Moreover, the odds of finding a franchise QB outside the first round is very rare; Tom Brady and Russell Wilson are exceptions, not the the rule. 

Off the top of my head, the following currently active franchise QBs have been drafted in the first round: Ben Roethilisberger, Andrew Luck, Patrick Maholmes, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, MItchell Trubiski, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff; that's 12 of the league's 32 starting QBs. There are, by my count, four QBs who are franchise QBs that were not drafted in the first round - Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. That's half the league. 

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Let me be more clear. If we develop a great D again and solidify the trenches, by all means drafty a QB in the 1st, 3rd, wherever. Just don't spend a 1st rd pick on a QB when you're a shi**y team. It doesn't work. I'm pretty sure it never has. 

Rodgers, Eli, Wilson, Brady, Rothlisberger were all drafted by excellent teams with great D's and won rings. By the way, only Ely was a top 10 pick. Wentz, Goff and Trubiski seem to fall in the same category and have a great chance. 

Give me one name of a great college QB drafted by a poor team that won a ring. 

Listen, we could have this conversation all day and I won't change my mind. I've no reason to. Great college QB's drafted by poor teams have an outrageous failure rate. I can't recall one success. It just doesn't work. 

I have no problem using a 1st on a QB in the right circumstance.  I do have a problem using that 1st, expecting the QB to take a poor or average team to elite. 

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