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Pittsburgh @ Denver GDT--Maybe we don't suck?

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35 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Moreover, the odds of finding a franchise QB outside the first round is very rare; Tom Brady and Russell Wilson are exceptions, not the the rule. 

Off the top of my head, the following currently active franchise QBs have been drafted in the first round: Ben Roethilisberger, Andrew Luck, Patrick Maholmes, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, MItchell Trubiski, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff; that's 12 of the league's 32 starting QBs. There are, by my count, four QBs who are franchise QBs that were not drafted in the first round - Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. That's half the league. 

So, how many 1st rd busts have there been in that time frame? How 'bout every one that wasn't drafted by a good team.

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25 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

So, how many 1st rd busts have there been in that time frame? How 'bout every one that wasn't drafted by a good team.

I mean not really, you’re not drafting in the top 5-10 if you’re a good team.  

I guess here is the thing.  Getting a legitimate NFL QB is probably the hardest thing in all of sports.  There is no clear cut strategy to be successful at it and everything has its pros and cons.  QBs bust at a higher rate then other positions, so taking one in rounds 1 or 2 comes with risk.  Trying to develop mid/late round QBs is even less successful than taking a QB in round 1 or 2.  Denver’s been selecting mid/late round QBs for 20 years and the best one was Trevor Siemian who was one of the worst starters in the NFL and is now an NFL backup.  

I know you’re of the opinion that we wait until 2020s FA class because it’s going to have good QBs in it, but that carries huge risk as well.  Brees could be retired by then and I really don’t see the Saints letting him walk, he’s done so much for the team as well as the city of New Orleans, Brees will retire a Saint.  I have the same opinion of Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.  The Steeler organization is as loyal as any in the business and Big Ben has been talking about retirement for the past couple of years.  Prescott and Mariota are possibilities, but both Dallas and Tennessee aren’t letting either walk unless they draft one this year, to be honest, or suck so bad they’re picking in the top 5 for a chance at Fromm or Tua.  NFL teams just don’t let QBs go if they don’t have a clear backup already in place and both Prescott and Mariota are top 16 QBs this year.  More than likely 2020 is like most QB FA years where your looking at signing the Case Keenums and Tyrod Taylor’s of the league.  

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1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Let me be more clear. If we develop a great D again and solidify the trenches, by all means drafty a QB in the 1st, 3rd, wherever. Just don't spend a 1st rd pick on a QB when you're a shi**y team. It doesn't work. I'm pretty sure it never has. 

Rodgers, Eli, Wilson, Brady, Rothlisberger were all drafted by excellent teams with great D's and won rings. By the way, only Ely was a top 10 pick. Wentz, Goff and Trubiski seem to fall in the same category and have a great chance. 

Give me one name of a great college QB drafted by a poor team that won a ring. 

Listen, we could have this conversation all day and I won't change my mind. I've no reason to. Great college QB's drafted by poor teams have an outrageous failure rate. I can't recall one success. It just doesn't work. 

I have no problem using a 1st on a QB in the right circumstance.  I do have a problem using that 1st, expecting the QB to take a poor or average team to elite. 

If you’re picking in the top 12 you’re a poor or average team.  Your record says it.  Great teams aren’t typically selecting 1st round QBs, a large part of why they’re great is because they already have their QB.

What about Denver makes you think selecting a QB would be a poor choice.  I personally think Denver’s in a great situation to take one right now.  They have good young offensive weapons.  The OL may need 2 starters, but isn’t a dumpster fire and is fixable in an offseason, they have a strong running game, and the defense is still playing good enough to make Denver competitive in almost every game.

Get your QB, hope you made the right choice, and spend the next 4-5 years when they’re on their rookie contract trying to maintain and improve everything else.

Most rookie 1st rounders go to situations a lot worse than Denver.  If you think Denver is going to have a complete team before they can select a QB that’s just wishful thinking.

Edited by germ-x

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Going back to the comment about how hard it is to draft a QB - and because I'm a bit of a nerd

 

Josh Rosen 1.10

Matt Ryan 1.3

Joe Flacco 1.18

Josh Allen 1.7

Cam Newton 1.1

Mitchell Trubisky 1.2

Andy Dalton 2.36

Baker Mayfield 1.1

Dak Prescott 4.135

Case Keenum UDFA

Matt Stafford 1.1

Aaron Rodgers 1.24

Deshaun Watson 1.12

Andrew Luck 1.1

Blake Bortles 1.3

Patrick Mahomes 1.10

Phillip Rivers 1.4

Jared Goff 1.1

Ryan Tannehill 1.8

Kirk Cousins 4.102

Tom Brady 6.199

Drew Brees 2.32

Eli Manning 1.1

Sam Darnold 1.3

Derek Carr 2.36

Carson Wentz 1.2

Ben Roethlisberger 1.11

Jimmy Garoppolo 2.62

Russell Wilson 3.75

Jameis Winston 1.1

Marcus Mariota 1.2

Alex Smith 1.1

 

8 starting QBs were the first pick in the draft

15 starting QBs were taken in the top five picks

22 starting QBs were taken in the first round

4 starting QBs were taken in the second round

The lowest ranked QB in the draft was Case Keenum – the only UDFA starter (second lowest was Tom Brady)

 

Since 2000 - out of 48 first round QB picks - 18 were complete busts - and the Broncos drafted two of them (Tebow and Lynch) - the Browns drafted three.

Edited by jolly red giant

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The Steelers are hot right now.  However, they rarely play well in Denver and Denver can be tough at home.  I am not sure what will happen.  

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4 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

Going back to the comment about how hard it is to draft a QB - and because I'm a bit of a nerd

 

Josh Rosen 1.10

Matt Ryan 1.3

Joe Flacco 1.18

Josh Allen 1.7

Cam Newton 1.1

Mitchell Trubisky 1.2

Andy Dalton 2.36

Baker Mayfield 1.1

Dak Prescott 4.135

Case Keenum UDFA

Matt Stafford 1.1

Aaron Rodgers 1.24

Deshaun Watson 1.12

Andrew Luck 1.1

Blake Bortles 1.3

Patrick Mahomes 1.10

Phillip Rivers 1.4

Jared Goff 1.1

Ryan Tannehill 1.8

Kirk Cousins 4.102

Tom Brady 6.199

Drew Brees 2.32

Eli Manning 1.1

Sam Darnold 1.3

Derek Carr 2.36

Carson Wentz 1.2

Ben Roethlisberger 1.11

Jimmy Garoppolo 2.62

Russell Wilson 3.75

Jameis Winston 1.1

Marcus Mariota 1.2

Alex Smith 1.1

 

8 starting QBs were the first pick in the draft

15 starting QBs were taken in the top five picks

22 starting QBs were taken in the first round

4 starting QBs were taken in the second round

The lowest ranked QB in the draft was Case Keenum – the only UDFA starter (second lowest was Tom Brady)

 

Since 2000 - out of 48 first round QB picks - 18 were complete busts - and the Broncos drafted two of them (Tebow and Lynch) - the Browns drafted three.

Okay then, of these QBs how many pro bowls do they have between them?  How many have been ranked in the top 5 QBs by QBR? 

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On 11/22/2018 at 11:58 PM, thebestever6 said:

Big Ben in 2020 I want no part of. He's right he's starting to break down. Honestly, if theres a vet qb worth nabbing elway will consider it. 

I could see a deal with Detroit I mean they can't even beat a backup in Chase Daniel. Maybe they wanna blow it up soon and start over.

As I watched their thanksgiving game I said the same thing to my son about the Lions starting over.  However, I don't see the blow up until next year when the draft is qb heavy and they can draft a cheap replacement for Stafford.  I live right across the river from Detroit and have watched and rooted for this pitiful organization my whole life (after the broncos) of course and I told all my friends at the beginning of the year that Detroit would end up with 5 wins and no more than six.  One other thing too - I know Elway loves Stafford but in all honesty he is  just all over the map.  Few games HOF material, other games one of the worst qb's in the league.  So many Lions fans are in the same boat not knowing what to think of him and he's been there forever.  To your point though I can see your scenario unfolding next year when the Lions likely contend for a very high pick (like they always do).  Frankly the NFL should pull this team from the Ford's (ownership wise - they are just so futile).  PS when Denver was really in the tank a few games ago I started telling everyone that I am adopting the Bears for this year.  Part of that reason is how everyone laughed at them when they traded up for Trabisky.  I have to admit I kind of laughed too but man do I respect that they felt he was there man and they went and got him and didn't care what anyone would think.  He is just on quite the trajectory and for what its worth I felt Bridgewater was on quite the upside trajectory prior to his injury.  I think whoever gets Bridgewater in FA this year gets something special but now there is a real concern re his health - there's always something isn't there.   

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2 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Okay then, of these QBs how many pro bowls do they have between them?  How many have been ranked in the top 5 QBs by QBR? 

Pro-bowls

Smith X 3

Dalton X 3

Manning X 4

Winston X 1

Goff X 1

Carr X 3

Prescott X 1

Cousins X 1

Newton X 3

Stafford X 1

Rivers X 7

Wilson X 4

Brees X 11

Luck X 3

Roethlisberger X 6

Ryan X 4

Rodgers X 6

Brady X 13

Wentz X 1

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Current QBR

Drew Brees,

Patrick Mahomes

Mitchell Trubisky

Jared Goff

Andrew Luck

 

2017 QBR

Wentz

Keenum

Brady

Prescott

Ryan

 

2016

Ryan

Brady

Prescott

Rodgers

Brees

 

2015

Palmer

Roethlisberger 

Dalton

Wilson

Brady

 

2014

Romo

Rodgers

Brady

Brees

Peyton Manning

 

2013

Peyton Manning

Rivers

Cutler

Foles

Brees

 

2012

Peyton Manning

Brady

Wilson

Roethlisberger 

Brees

 

2011

Rodgers

Brees

Schaub

Brady

Ryan

 

2010

Brady

Peyton Manning

Ryan

Brees

Vick

 

2009

Brees

Peyton Manning

Rodgers

Farve

Brady

 

2008

Peyton Manning

Garcia

Ryan

Warner

Schaub

 

2007

Brady

Gerrard

Peyton Manning

Romo

Farve

 

2006

Peyton Manning

Brady

Rivers

Palmer

Brees

 

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18 hours ago, germ-x said:

If you’re picking in the top 12 you’re a poor or average team.  Your record says it.  Great teams aren’t typically selecting 1st round QBs, a large part of why they’re great is because they already have their QB.

What about Denver makes you think selecting a QB would be a poor choice.  I personally think Denver’s in a great situation to take one right now.  They have good young offensive weapons.  The OL may need 2 starters, but isn’t a dumpster fire and is fixable in an offseason, they have a strong running game, and the defense is still playing good enough to make Denver competitive in almost every game.

Get your QB, hope you made the right choice, and spend the next 4-5 years when they’re on their rookie contract trying to maintain and improve everything else.

Most rookie 1st rounders go to situations a lot worse than Denver.  If you think Denver is going to have a complete team before they can select a QB that’s just wishful thinking.

I hope you realize how tough it is to try to have this conversation in this forum. If we were sittin' at a bar it's 5 minutes, then another round and off to other topics.

 

Anyway, last year would have been a terrible year to draft a QB. OL was a dumpster fire, coaching was awful, defense was declining...................

This coming year could be a lot different. New offensive weapons, greatly improved OL, solid group of youngsters and a team thats improving and better than it's record. I agree with you, I wouldn't mind a high pick on a QB this year.

IMO @germ-x the situation really dictates when drafting a QB high is a good idea. Last year it was a bad idea, thankfully we got Chubb. This year is entirely different. I'm eager to see how the rest of the season plays out.

In this respect I'm an absolute pro, having to live with the mantra "wait 'til next year" for the first decade+ I watched this team. The next six games will tell us a bunch.

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2 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

Pro-bowls

Smith X 3

Dalton X 3

Manning X 4

Winston X 1

Goff X 1

Carr X 3

Prescott X 1

Cousins X 1

Newton X 3

Stafford X 1

Rivers X 7

Wilson X 4

Brees X 11

Luck X 3

Roethlisberger X 6

Ryan X 4

Rodgers X 6

Brady X 13

Wentz X 1

So, you have about a 37% chance of drafting a Pro Bowl caliber QB after the 1st round from this sample of QBs, so the rest of the starting QBs have not made the Pro Bowl...which means you have a 22% chance of landing a Pro Bowl caliber QB after the 1st round.  However, if you do land of the 37% of the sample, they report a weighted average of a little more than 3 Pro Bowls among them, and those drafted in the first have a weighted average of 1.7 Pro Bowls.  Six of these Pro Bowlers have won super bowls, and 9 have been to the Bowl (8 started).  Of these 33% were drafted after the first round, with only two winning more than one super bowl.  

So, in a matter of probability it seems that the chances of landing a Pro Bowl caliber QB in the 1st is higher, but the number of QBs who have won and been to Super Bowls are about equal to those drafted past the fist round.  Which tells me that you get better value drafting a QB after the first round, who will yield the same results of drafting a QB in the first, which would be a much more prudent choice. 

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1 hour ago, jsthomp2007 said:

So, you have about a 37% chance of drafting a Pro Bowl caliber QB after the 1st round from this sample of QBs, so the rest of the starting QBs have not made the Pro Bowl...which means you have a 22% chance of landing a Pro Bowl caliber QB after the 1st round.  However, if you do land of the 37% of the sample, they report a weighted average of a little more than 3 Pro Bowls among them, and those drafted in the first have a weighted average of 1.7 Pro Bowls.  Six of these Pro Bowlers have won super bowls, and 9 have been to the Bowl (8 started).  Of these 33% were drafted after the first round, with only two winning more than one super bowl.  

So, in a matter of probability it seems that the chances of landing a Pro Bowl caliber QB in the 1st is higher, but the number of QBs who have won and been to Super Bowls are about equal to those drafted past the fist round.  Which tells me that you get better value drafting a QB after the first round, who will yield the same results of drafting a QB in the first, which would be a much more prudent choice. 

Tom Brady skews that pretty dramatically.  And drew Bree’s was the 1st pick of the 2nd round

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I have been disappointed in Justin Simmons development as a safety, but he’s one of the best STers in the game.  His ability to block kicks is truly special.

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7 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Tom Brady skews that pretty dramatically.  And drew Bree’s was the 1st pick of the 2nd round

No skew when using weighted averages. You gotta keep them in the sample, because they drive the point of the analysis.  

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