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beekay414

Will Aaron throw 400 TDs before 100 INT?

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He's currently at 297 TD to 72 INT. He needs to average 34 TD to 9 INT over the next three years to do it. 

Can/Will he do it?

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I think he can, but I don't think he will quite make it.  The margin there is pretty thin.  Keeping the INTs to single digits is key.  If he has another 40:7 season, I would feel more confident, but a 33 TD 12 INT season, which is still good, would nearly ruin the chance.  I'll guess he narrowly misses it, and in 3 years he is sitting at something like 406:102.

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Last season was considered a bad season for him in the first ten games of the season and how we struggled and he had 40 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. 

The year before last he had 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.  That was by far his worst year as a pro.  Yes, I think he will get to 400 touchdowns before he gets to 100 interceptions. 

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Well, he hasn't hit double digit INT's for 6 straight years now so he certainly is showing the track record for continuing doing so. He needs 103 TD's to only 27 INT if he is to reach 400 TD prior to 100 INT. Rodgers has thrown 126 TD's to only 26 INT the past 4 years combined, which obviously puts him ahead of the pace needed going forward. I think it'll be extremely close. Rodgers takes great care of his body so I don't think he's gonna fall off a cliff 3-4 yrs from now ability wise(scrambling ability likely takes biggest hit as he ages)

 

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Without a doubt. Like mentioned, his career averages put him above that pace, so if he drops off just a tad (which he wont) he can still do it.

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Yah, he will.  He doesn't take many chances with the ball.  He'll take the sack versus the high risk throw.  Even if Jordy loses a step, and Cobb is gone...and Adams isn't re-signed....Rodgers will stay stay away from picks.

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Hmm, I say yes. Only gets sharper with age. I don't see his INT #s exploding.

2017: 42-5
2018: 39-8
2019: 36-7
 

117-20 = 414-92

 

My mathematical formulas suggest yes, he does.

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18 hours ago, BlondeonBlonde said:

The real question is when does he hit 443... That's the record that matters ;)

 

4 years from now. Week 9.

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46 minutes ago, Siman08/OH said:

 

4 years from now. Week 9.

I can't read (nvm).

 

We should all make this prediction, revisit this thread in 6-7 years.

Edited by CentralFC

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To date, AR has a career touchdown rate of 6.4%, and he's averaged 545 attempts per 16 games.

He's at 297, so my guess is:

300: 2017, Week 1 (September, 33 years old)

330: 2017, Week 15 (December, 34)

350: 2018, Week 5 (October, 34)

400: 2019, Week 10 (November, 35)

450: 2020, Week 13 (November, 36)

500: 2021, Week 14 (December, 38th birthday)

550: 2023, Week 2 (September, 39)

600: 2024, Week 16 (December, 41)

 

Market down. See you fellas in 10 years when he checks of no. 700. 

 

 

 

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