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Matt LaFleur


dtait93

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If we add another #2 to replace Matthews, and Walker returns near his former self, I think we will have good receiving options. With Smith improving maybe we're okay post-Walker.. maybe. I'd need to see more tape outside of gameday to judge his blocking. I do like him as a receiving option. Is Firkser at all capable of blocking? Because he's a nice little underneath receiving option.

We could still look for a mid-round TE if Smith struggles blocking still. 

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Credit to where credit’s due. LaFleur adjusted at halftime and our offense mustered up enough points to get a W yesterday. Let’s see what he does on a short week against a Jags team that just shutout an Andrew Luck that almost dropped a 40 burger on us. Hopefully his 15 play game script to open the game is better than yesterday.

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5 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

Credit to where credit’s due. LaFleur adjusted at halftime and our offense mustered up enough points to get a W yesterday. Let’s see what he does on a short week against a Jags team that just shutout an Andrew Luck that almost dropped a 40 burger on us. Hopefully his 15 play game script to open the game is better than yesterday.

Very true I texted a friend that yesterday it was nice to see him do the simple things like run the ball on the goaline with Henry and target your best WR when you really need it.

He still has work to do because the GW to Davis was the only time we converted a 3rd down all day so they still need to go to him more but hopefully he’s starting to turn a corner 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I don't know if this is where we were discussing LaFluer's insistence on the run... but I figured this was as good a place as any to share some of these stats I ran.

Titans are 2nd in the NFL in run%, running on 47.5% of all plays (all rush attempts, including QB scrambles).  Only Seattle had a higher % at 52.3%.  When I looked at the rest of the top 10, I noticed an interesting trend... 10 of the top 12 teams are in the playoff contenders (PC) right now, with 7 of us all but guaranteed a spot (PG)... in order:

  1. Seahawks 52.3% - PG
  2. Titans 47.5 - PC
  3. Saints 47.4 - PG
  4. Texans 47.3 - PG
  5. Bills 46.1
  6. Bears 45.0 - PG
  7. Ravens 44.7 - PC
  8. Cowboys 44.3 - PG
  9. Patriots 43.4 - PG
  10. 49ers 43.2
  11. Chargers 43.0 - PG
  12. Dolphins 42.7 - PC

The league average is 40.8.

It shouldn't be surprising that most of those teams have QBs in the top 10 in carries, including Wilson (9th), Mariota (6th), Saints (Hill/Brees would be ahead of Mariota), Watson (3rd), Allen (5th), Trubiski (7th), Jackson (1st), Prescott (4th). 

Once you adjust QB carries, the % change slightly (league average is 35.6%), and the top 6 all consist of playoff contenders:

  1. Seahawks - 45.8%
  2. Chargers - 40.9
  3. Patriots - 40.6
  4. Titans - 39.6
  5. Dolphins - 39.3
  6. Saints - 39.6

When you look at the bottom of the league, you see teams who are failing to meet expectations, and teams who are slumping as the weather's getting colder:

  • 26. Bengals - 35.8 % (with QB carries), 32.5% without
  • 27. Falcons - 33.3/30.2
  • 28. Steelers - 32.8/30.0
  • 29. Packers - 34.1/29.8
  • 30. Panthers - 41.3/29.3
  • 31. Vikings - 33/28.6
  • 32. Bucs - 36.9/28.2

Of the slam dunk playoff teams, the Chargers (2nd), Patriots (3rd), Saints (6th), Texans (8th), Bears (10th), Rams (13th), Cowboys (15th) are above the league average.  Only the Chiefs (25th) are guaranteed the playoffs at this point and are under the league average.

Just interesting (to this stats geek at least) when using stats to consider how LaFleur is using the pass/run ratio in relation to the rest of the league. 

 

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3 hours ago, titanrick said:

I hadn't realized we were running that much to be honest.  Probably because I consider Lewis runs to not really be "smashmouth football".  I'd like to see him as a more traditional third down back but they like to give him entire series.

Essentially, we're running 4 out every 10 plays... The teams who are most pass heavy run 3 out of 10 plays. 

I guess I was just using statistical analysis for those who think Lafleur runs 3 out of every 4 plays. 

18 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

For the teams that suck, wouldn't them always trailing be a reason for passing more?

That would be an interesting stat, run/pass percentage when leading/trailing broken down by quarter. Probably not something we have available to us. 

Yeah, i'm sure it exists (for a price)... Or the data is there to extract and compile... Itd be a huge endeavor though. 

The thing is the teams at the bottom don't necessarily suck... They're underachieving. The Vikings just died their oc, and rumblings were that one of the reasons was his refusal to run more. I think they're still above 500, but are severely underperforming. The Steelers are obviously mien Bell, but they also don't suck... Even in their losses, it's not like theyre getting blown out. 

The Packers, the Falcons (without Devonte), the Bucs are just pass heavy teams. 

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True, not all of them suck. I guess I should have looked the list over better. The Panthers are the surprising one there.

I was interested in going back to get my masters degree and making a switch from software developer to data scientist, so I find numbers amusing too. I've long considered making a football website because I love posting on here and thought I could do the same on my own site, and thought making another football analytics site would be fun if I got into it.

I know some sites do advanced statistics already, but I think there could be a market for more.

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Yeah, the Panthers were surprising... But they use Cam to run the ball more than any other team other than the Ravens recently with Jackson. 

In overall carries, they're about middle of the pack, but are amongst the lowest in non qb carries. McCaffrey has been their "workhorse" with 179 carries. Him and Cam are the only ones in Carolina with more than 25 carries. Then you have the Ravens with 277 carries between Collins, Edwards, Allen, and Dixon. Seattle with 354 carries between Carson, Davis, and Penny. The Pat's have 319 with their 4 (including Patterson who they were using as their RB while Michel was out) ... We're at 290 with our 2... Right with the Saints at 283.

These are just bulk stats... Doesn't take into account down and distance, game situation, personnel, and other things. Would be great to have a website with that kind of query capabilities. 

I think teams probably have their own analytics teams... I hope the Titans have one. If you don't Titans, let's talk. I may not have a masters in data, but I know my way around numbers, and I'll probably be more affordable than SS! 

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Also, one good game of rushing the football and we're now in the middle of the pack in yards per carry. Tied with Houston and better than the likes of NO, Chicago, Baltimore, NE, to name a few of the successful teams that have been running at a similar rate to ours. The madness paid off.

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