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The Flacco effect


paraven

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Are we starting to see a change in the way teams address their QB's long term. Was flaccos deal the beginning of the end for QBS to get grossly overpaid. Guys like Dalton, Bradford, Stafford ETC, getting these huge contracts that IMO should be reserved only for the top 5 or 6 truely "elite" qbs. Are teams going to start drafting QBs more often and early to ensure they can have a serviceable QB on a rookie payscale and still have cap space to build a team. If I  were a GM in todays league I think this would be the route id go. Unless you have a guy like Brees, Brady, Rodgers, id stick to a QB on a rookie pay scale. Guys in the 11-32 range will most likely not see these lucrative deals any longer. 

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This is a really interesting topic. With regard to the current tendencies and narrative about you need a good team and a quarterback on a rookie deal to win in the NFL, I believe we could see more teams moving away from paying quarterbacks who are of a caliber, where they need a strong team around them or haven’t been able to reach the playoffs several times.

Dak Prescot is the first that come to mind as an example of a quarterback, where the Cowboys have a difficult choice either extending him for big money or draft a new quarterback.

As I see it, the narrative is heavily flawed as it only works for either 1. Round quarterbacks who have 5 years to prove themselves or quarterbacks taken later in the draft who are immediate success.

A thought out scenario would be a quarterback taken in the first round like Sam darnold who is good but not good enough to lead a Jets team to the playoffs more than 1 time in 5 years. Do you extend him and then have to acknowledge that you have to put together a stronger roster despite Darnold eating up a lot more of the cap, or do you cut ties with a 25 year old quarterback who may not have hit his prime yet?

A likely scenario is that teams with rookie quarterbacks who enter their 3-5 year will see teams take more tries at quarterbacks in the draft in the 1. Rounds instead of having veterans as backups.

Again the Cowboys could be an example where they draft a quarterback in the second round and franchise Dak Prescot and see if the new guy can compete. This is again a priority where you put Dak in a worse chance to succeed because you invest in a backup instead of a player who can make an immediate impact.

 

In the end I believe most teams know how difficult it is to just find a serviceable quarterback, which is why most teams have tried to build a team around the quarterbacks who are borderline good. Teams and especially owners have to have a talk about which philosophy they will apply. The Ravens philosophy where the team is a contender with some flaws year in and year out, or a team like the Browns/Eagles/Rams where you invest heavily in your team once you think you have a QB on a rookie contract who can go all the way.

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I think fear of the unknown is always going to end up driving up the costs of these relatively middling incumbent QB's and teams will end up paying up to avoid having to look for someone new. Look at what the Jags did with Bortles last offseason. Teams are so desperate to say they have a franchise QB that they'll look for the signs anywhere. 

What I do think has happened as a consequence not just of watching what we've done after our Super Bowl win/Flacco's contract extension, but also what happened with the Seahawks with Russel Wilson, is that teams are more cognizant than ever of the fact that there exists a clear window of opportunity while your QB is on a rookie contract. The Rams are the best example of this - loading up on high dollar stars right now with the idea that their best chance to win a Super Bowl will be before they give Goff his contract extension. 

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The Seahawks were smart though, in that as soon as they saw the decline coming, they sold their assets and kept their cornerstone pieces and are already back in contention for a playoff spot with a new group of young players. Their strategy also works because Pete Carroll's scheme and coaching on defense is just freaking incredible to the point where a mid-round Safety who's never played CB in his life (Trey Flowers) is a serviceable starter at CB for them when their first 3 CB's went down with injuries. Then they lose Earl Thomas at FS and again don't miss a beat on defense. 

We, however, did basically the opposite.

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3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The Seahawks were smart though, in that as soon as they saw the decline coming, they sold their assets and kept their cornerstone pieces and are already back in contention for a playoff spot with a new group of young players. Their strategy also works because Pete Carroll's scheme and coaching on defense is just freaking incredible to the point where a mid-round Safety who's never played CB in his life (Trey Flowers) is a serviceable starter at CB for them when their first 3 CB's went down with injuries. Then they lose Earl Thomas at FS and again don't miss a beat on defense. 

We, however, did basically the opposite.

Hey we gave a 27 year old run stopping NT a fat contract. Zig while the rest of the NFL zags.

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3 minutes ago, M.10.E said:

Hey we gave a 27 year old run stopping NT a fat contract. Zig while the rest of the NFL zags.

Yeah I think with hindsight we're all going to really regret giving BWill that contract because of how invisible he is for us on the field on passing downs and how little he's actually had on rushing downs as well.

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2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Yeah I think with hindsight we're all going to really regret giving BWill that contract because of how invisible he is for us on the field on passing downs and how little he's actually had on rushing downs as well.

He's not even the best NT on the team yet he makes 15x as much as the guy better than him. It's an awful contract.

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2 minutes ago, M.10.E said:

He's not even the best NT on the team yet he makes 15x as much as the guy better than him. It's an awful contract.

If we want to look at the silver lining, IIRC didn't that contract mean we had to let go of Rick Wagner? And letting go of Wagner ultimately netted us Zeus Jr. So if you want to be optimistic about it, there's that (if I'm remembering the timeline correctly).

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26 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The Seahawks were smart though, in that as soon as they saw the decline coming, they sold their assets and kept their cornerstone pieces and are already back in contention for a playoff spot with a new group of young players. Their strategy also works because Pete Carroll's scheme and coaching on defense is just freaking incredible to the point where a mid-round Safety who's never played CB in his life (Trey Flowers) is a serviceable starter at CB for them when their first 3 CB's went down with injuries. Then they lose Earl Thomas at FS and again don't miss a beat on defense. 

We, however, did basically the opposite.

Eh, I'm not exactly passionate about the Seahawks so I don't want to dwell on this too much, but I don't think the Seahawks saw this coming as much as the window closed shut on them in a big way with the Falcons playoff game and last year and they reacted accordingly. Their defense is above average now but obviously nowhere near where they used to be, honestly I give more credit to the fact that they have a bonafide elite franchise QB which is a major stabilizing factor when you're going through big changes. 

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Just now, BaltimoreTerp said:

Eh, I'm not exactly passionate about the Seahawks so I don't want to dwell on this too much, but I don't think the Seahawks saw this coming as much as the window closed shut on them in a big way with the Falcons playoff game and last year and they reacted accordingly. Their defense is above average now but obviously nowhere near where they used to be, honestly I give more credit to the fact that they have a bonafide elite franchise QB which is a major stabilizing factor when you're going through big changes. 

Of course they're nowhere near what they used to be - they have ONE pass rusher, ONE good linebacker, and nobody good in the secondary, yet are still 12th in DVOA playing against the Rams twice this year.

Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner have allowed them to change everything around those two pieces without skipping a beat. But I'm still giving them credit for selling at the right time with Bennett, Sherman, Graham, Richardson, Kearse, etc. etc.

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I think it's weird to say they're doing this "without skipping a beat" when clearly they have. A marginally above average defense is a far, far cry from the Legion of Boom. They're a 6-5 wild card contender... same as us. With a much better QB, mind you.

I think the fact that the Seahawks haven't been able to build much more than a possible wild card team since Wilson's extension, despite him actually being the real deal, really underscores how little margin for error there is with team-building once you have that big dollar QB on the books.  

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12 minutes ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

I think it's weird to say they're doing this "without skipping a beat" when clearly they have. A marginally above average defense is a far, far cry from the Legion of Boom. They're a 6-5 wild card contender... same as us. With a much better QB, mind you.

I think the fact that the Seahawks haven't been able to build much more than a possible wild card team since Wilson's extension, despite him actually being the real deal, really underscores how little margin for error there is with team-building once you have that big dollar QB on the books.  

They're also in a much harder division with a much harder schedule than us, in a year where they were expected to be picking top 5. We're not in that same boat. We were expected to be fighting for the division, not fighting for the last wildcard spot and a .500 record. The Seahawks are vastly overachieving and we're underachieving.

Last year they were decimated by injuries and Wilson couldn't carry the entire team by himself to a wildcard spot (but still carried them to 9 wins and they missed the playoffs on a missed FG). This year they sell all of those aging pieces in a rebuild year and are going for a wildcard spot while trending upwards. Not really difficult to see this team again competing for the division next year and winning a playoff game this year.

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I like the discussion and think it's an interesting topic, that said...

I think to some degree this discussion exagerrates the difference between top QBs and average QBs with respect to their impact and/or underrates the difference between average QBs and bottom-rung QBs (I would weigh it more heavily toward the latter).

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2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

They're also in a much harder division with a much harder schedule than us, in a year where they were expected to be picking top 5. We're not in that same boat. We were expected to be fighting for the division, not fighting for the last wildcard spot and a .500 record. The Seahawks are vastly overachieving and we're underachieving.

Last year they were decimated by injuries and Wilson couldn't carry the entire team by himself to a wildcard spot (but still carried them to 9 wins and they missed the playoffs on a missed FG). This year they sell all of those aging pieces in a rebuild year and are going for a wildcard spot while trending upwards. Not really difficult to see this team again competing for the division next year and winning a playoff game this year.

Are they?  You obviously have the Rams, but they also have the Cards and the 49'ers.

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