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Tank or Try and Win Out (4-6-1 Edition)


AlexGreen#20

0-5 or 5-0  

77 members have voted

  1. 1. Win out or Lose out

    • Win the last 5 for a shot at the playoffs
    • Lose the last 5 for a shot at a top 8 pick


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6 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

No...I don't, but let me clarify. Nowhere have I used the word "tank" especially in the sense that I expect the Packers to intentionally sit players and throw games. That's not going to happen nor would it ever happen so your bolded point above is not what I'm saying. My argument has been that I believe the best thing for this team is to lose out -- meaning try to win, but still lose. Now, am I going to be upset if, for example, Adams doesn't play Weeks 16 or 17 so he doesn't blow his Achilles and wreck his 2019 season? No, I think that's smart to protect your players once playoff chances are over.  

The final record is the bottom-line. 4-11-1 is A LOT better for this team in 2019 than 8-7-1 for reasons previously stated. 

What if we go 9-6-1 and make the playoffs though? You don't give up with a 10% chance at the playoffs. This team can beat anyone in the conference outside of maybe the Saints at home but stranger things have happened. 

It's not like we haven't seen a MM/Rodgers lead team go on a run to end a season before. Giving up now serves absolutely no purpose in the long run. 

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2017 All Pro Defensive Team:

Calais Campbell (50th)

Cameron Jordan (24th)

Aaron Donald (13th)

Cameron Heyward (31st)

Chandler Jones (21st)

Luke Kuechly (9th)

Bobby Wagner (47th)

Jalen Ramsey (5th)

Xavier Rhodes (25th)

Kevin Byard (64th)

Harrison Smith (29th) 

Darius Slay (36th)

2017 All Pro Defensive 2nd Team:

Everson Griffen (100th)

Demarcus Lawrence (34th)

Fletcher Cox (12th)

Calais Campbell

Von Miller (2nd)

CJ Mosley (17th)

Telvin Smith (144th)

Casey Hayward (62nd)

AJ Bouye (Undrafted)

Earl Thomas (14th)

Micah Hyde (159th)

Xavier Rhodes

+++

Total players: 23

1st round picks: 12/22

2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 21st, 24th, 25th, 29th, 31st

2nd round picks: 6/22

3rd round picks: 1/22

4th round picks: 1/22

5th round picks: 2/22

UDFA: 1/22

+++

I'd be willing to bet good money that you see the All Pro percentage shoot up (based on team's propoensity to draft offensive players, specifically QBs and OTs,  early) the earlier the pick.

Just some interesting data.

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4 minutes ago, Ketchup said:

I’m done with this team. I just have no interest. It’s the same darn thing every week. Does it make me a bad fan? Probably. With a new baby boy though, I just don’t have the time to waste to care about a team that can’t get out of their own way. I hope we lose out so Mac gets fired and we get a high draft pick. It’s a terrible way to view things as a fan but that’s where I’m at. 

Traitor! Lol. 

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13 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Clark and Alexander = An average of 22.5 overall draft choices. 

And you're telling us we gotta tank to add talent. 

That's not really the point of the argument, but nice try.  When you're picking 12th, you have 11 players who are taken ahead of that pick that aren't eligible to be picked.  When you're picking 22nd, you have 21 ahead of them who were picked.  I'd venture to guess that there is some players going to be picked in that 12-21 range who are going to be really good that you won't have the option to pick at 22.  Add on the fact that the 11th overall pick has more value in a trade down than the 21st pick does.  If you're moving from 11 to 25, you should receive the 37th pick in return.  If you're moving down from the 21st pick to the 25th pick, you're going to get the 107th pick in return.  Nobody is saying you can't get good picks later, but your level of flexibility is significantly higher when you're picking higher.

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1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

I don't care which misguided excuse anyone has, if you want a team to tank you deserve to be a fan of the Browns or Cardinals.  The more the players on your team lose, the more losing is common to them.  Losing got the Packers a whole lot of great things from the 70's to the 80's.  A whole lot of high draft picks.  Saying it's the best thing for this team is really damn stupid, too.  No it ain't.  The best thing for this team is to continue to win and grow in this league and get better in this league, and you don't get better at winning by losing. 

This whole thread grosses me out. 

Ah yes, the "lesser fan" argument.  Let's not go there.

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58 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I'm in the same boat as @Outpost31 where I think winning is paramount. The difference between a few picks is not a lot unless we're talking about #1. I want to see this team get their **** back together and win 3 to 5 of the final games, regardless of where it brings them. If anything to give confidence in the offense who will for the most part be returning next year personnel wise. I don't want young players to become okay with losing

There's no intrinsic proof that winning at the end of the season means you're more likely to win the next season.

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2 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

What if we go 9-6-1 and make the playoffs though? You don't give up with a 10% chance at the playoffs. This team can beat anyone in the conference outside of maybe the Saints at home but stranger things have happened. 

It's not like we haven't seen a MM/Rodgers lead team go on a run to end a season before. Giving up now serves absolutely no purpose in the long run. 

If we go 9-6-1 and make the playoffs, sure, everyone's happy, including me because I get to watch another week of meaningful Packers football. I'm going off of probabilities and my point is simply, if I had a crystal ball and could see that we don't go 5-0 or going 5-0 still isn't enough, in hindsight my choice would be go 0-5 instead of going 4-1 or 5-0. 

I'll take the playoffs vs. higher draft pick/MM firing (it's very close honestly for me), but I absolutely don't want "almost" make playoffs = lower draft pick/MM come on back. 

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38 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Dynasties and Super Bowl winners are made up of teams who don't quit.  You start playing to lose and it infects an entire organization.  I don't want to hear any of the excuses because the excuses are dumber than ****. 

They're not playing to lose.  They're playing their young guys to see what they have.  I don't see why you're so insistent on continue to play veterans who are going to play half motivated, but the notion of playing their young players is ridiculous.

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40 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I don't give a damn about our draft slot.  We're one of only two teams with two first round picks and we have the most cap space our team has had in years.  I don't give a damn about our draft slot when the difference is 6 picks. 

We're talking about more than 6 picks.  IF the Packers win out, they're probably picking somewhere in that 18-22 range.  If they go 2-4 like I think they're going to, that's probably a pick in that 8-12 range.  That's 10 picks.

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1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

If we go 9-6-1 and make the playoffs, sure, everyone's happy, including me because I get to watch another week of meaningful Packers football. I'm going off of probabilities and my point is simply, if I had a crystal ball and could see that we don't go 5-0 or going 5-0 still isn't enough, in hindsight my choice would be go 0-5 instead of going 4-1 or 5-0. I'll take the playoffs vs. higher draft pick/MM firing (it's very close honestly for me), but I absolutely don't want "almost" make playoffs = lower draft pick/MM come on back. 

So picky.  Bet your parents held their breath every time they asked: "What would you like for dinner" question :)

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6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

2017 All Pro Defensive Team:

Calais Campbell (50th)

Cameron Jordan (24th)

Aaron Donald (13th)

Cameron Heyward (31st)

Chandler Jones (21st)

Luke Kuechly (9th)

Bobby Wagner (47th)

Jalen Ramsey (5th)

Xavier Rhodes (25th)

Kevin Byard (64th)

Harrison Smith (29th) 

Darius Slay (36th)

2017 All Pro Defensive 2nd Team:

Everson Griffen (100th)

Demarcus Lawrence (34th)

Fletcher Cox (12th)

Calais Campbell

Von Miller (2nd)

CJ Mosley (17th)

Telvin Smith (144th)

Casey Hayward (62nd)

AJ Bouye (Undrafted)

Earl Thomas (14th)

Micah Hyde (159th)

Xavier Rhodes

+++

Total players: 23

1st round picks: 12/22

2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 21st, 24th, 25th, 29th, 31st

2nd round picks: 6/22

3rd round picks: 1/22

4th round picks: 1/22

5th round picks: 2/22

UDFA: 1/22

+++

I'd be willing to bet good money that you see the All Pro percentage shoot up (based on team's propoensity to draft offensive players, specifically QBs and OTs,  early) the earlier the pick.

Just some interesting data.

Sure, no one is saying you have to draft in the top 10 or that by drafting 10 vs. 17 it is guaranteeing you anything, but this is about options. 

Simple question at issue: if you could draft No. 10 or No. 17, which one do you want? The answer, 100% of the time is No. 10. That would still be true if in the last 10 years, 10 players drafted at No. 17 were All-Pros and 0 players at No. 10 were All-Pros, you'd still want to draft No. 10 every time

If anything I like your data, because all I hear around here from some people is that the Packers' roster inevitably got worse (without fault to our management) simply because we draft later in every draft.....hmm. So which is it? 

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10 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

All y'all who want to tank would be the first to die in any kind of apocalypse. 

"World is ending, I might as well just die and hope for something better after." 

I'm a survivor and I carry that fire. 

Were you listening to Destiny's Child when you wrote this? 

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