Jump to content

Kyler Murray Hypothetical


BleedTheClock

Recommended Posts

On 12/7/2018 at 5:11 PM, Rainmaker90 said:

If there were no baseball involved , Murray is a first rounder.

The “ he’s too small card” is pretty irrelevant these days. 

Lamar Jackson is 6 3 212

Murray’s 5 9 195

Jackson is 6 inches taller and only 17 pounds heavier? Jackson is way skinner body type wise.

The difference? Murray is a astronomically better thrower than 1st round pick Lamar Jackson is.

And we’ve already seen shorter QBs succeed in the NFL

In terms of short passes and accuracy sure Murray is a better thrower but in terms of arm strength and velocity Lamar Jackson has a way better arm than Kyler Murray does.  Jackson just is still raw and struggles with accuracy at times, much like Murray did when he was a freshman in college.  Arm strength wise Jackson can throw a lazer.

 

Murray this year played out of his mind this season.  But it had to have helped that he had the security of being drafted in baseball and basically having a profession already and being a future MLB star.  He did not have to worry about impressing NFL scouts, he just went out and played.  That took a lot of pressure to succeed off of him and he could just play freely in one of the best offensive systems in the nation behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.  Sure if he wanted to play in the NFL he would get the shot just like McKenzie Milton will be getting a shot.  With a lot of teams running zone read stuff and moving the QB outside the pocket, height has clearly become less and less of an issue.  And more and more smaller QBs are still having success in the NFL.

 

He will stick with baseball though I am sure, less of a chance of major injury and life long health issues, and more of a change of success and a long career in baseball.  But sure might be a little different conversation if he was 6-6 225 and that is just a fact.  Amazing season by Murray though, really played great in really his own real chance to do so as a RS JR.  Then again not a huge surprise in that offense, with his ability to run in college football, yeah he would be unstoppable and was.  Will be interesting how successful he is against Bama and Nick Saban having a month or so to prep for him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Ozzy said:

In terms of short passes and accuracy sure Murray is a better thrower but in terms of arm strength and velocity Lamar Jackson has a way better arm than Kyler Murray does.  Jackson just is still raw and struggles with accuracy at times, much like Murray did when he was a freshman in college.  Arm strength wise Jackson can throw a lazer.

 

Murray this year played out of his mind this season.  But it had to have helped that he had the security of being drafted in baseball and basically having a profession already and being a future MLB star.  He did not have to worry about impressing NFL scouts, he just went out and played.  That took a lot of pressure to succeed off of him and he could just play freely in one of the best offensive systems in the nation behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.  Sure if he wanted to play in the NFL he would get the shot just like McKenzie Milton will be getting a shot.  With a lot of teams running zone read stuff and moving the QB outside the pocket, height has clearly become less and less of an issue.  And more and more smaller QBs are still having success in the NFL.

 

He will stick with baseball though I am sure, less of a chance of major injury and life long health issues, and more of a change of success and a long career in baseball.  But sure might be a little different conversation if he was 6-6 225 and that is just a fact.  Amazing season by Murray though, really played great in really his own real chance to do so as a RS JR.  Then again not a huge surprise in that offense, with his ability to run in college football, yeah he would be unstoppable and was.  Will be interesting how successful he is against Bama and Nick Saban having a month or so to prep for him.

Touch and ball placement def favor Murray. 

Not sure I agree with the because he was drafted as a baseball player it helped him because he didn’t have to impress others. 

 

Im not closing the door on him playing football. We don’t know what his strongest passion is. I can see a world where it’s football and if he’s getting 1st round grades could be enough to sway him. Remember, just because he was a first round pick in baseball doesn’t mean he’ll ever make a major league roster. That’s far from guaranteed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Touch and ball placement def favor Murray. 

Not sure I agree with the because he was drafted as a baseball player it helped him because he didn’t have to impress others. 

 

Im not closing the door on him playing football. We don’t know what his strongest passion is. I can see a world where it’s football and if he’s getting 1st round grades could be enough to sway him. Remember, just because he was a first round pick in baseball doesn’t mean he’ll ever make a major league roster. That’s far from guaranteed. 

Who is giving Kyler Murray 1st round grades for the NFL?  I doubt anyone is.  Sure baseball is not guaranteed, and neither is the NFL.  Baseball is potentially easier long term and obviously way less dangerous especially considering his build.  

 

So you think getting a little under $5 Million dollars in a guaranteed contract before the start of the college football season had nothing to do with the success Murray had?  I mean talk about no pressure, it is all gravy.  He has to impress no NFL scouts, does not have to worry about his future after college and can just go play and relax.  Sure there are pressures to being the QB for any major University but pretty sure it is a lot easier with $5 million dollars just waiting for you in a few months.  If you fail no big deal, but if you succeed you get to accomplish a life long dream of becoming a dominant big time college football QB, oh and you also just won the Heisman Trophy.  Oddly enough Baker Mayfield said he break all the OU Heisman trophy winners records before the season, him included, he did not really but yeah still won the Heisman.    

 

But again he signed a contract, pretty sure he is playing baseball unless he is going to throw away $5 Million dollars which I am not that sure if he can even do that if he wanted to.  The contract allowed him to play football for OU this year then go play for the A's, not go out for the NFL draft and test those waters as well...

 

Sure he could flame out in baseball and come play football again in a few years, that is possible but I just do not see that happening.  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kyler Murray is probably going to baseball. Like 95% sure. But I do think he'd consider football if he got 1st round grades. I couldn't see a QB-needy team putting all of their 1st round eggs in the Murray basket, but stranger things have happened.

I know size isn't the be-all, end-all, but 5'9 is REALLLY small. Crazy small when talking about the NFL. He'd be far and away the smallest QB to ever play the position in the NFL and I wouldn't expect that to go well. I really like his game and all, but I think he's just too darn small.

 

Oh, and Lamar Jackson was significantly faster, bigger, and had a stronger arm. That's why he was a 1st round pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

He's done with football after this season. It's on to baseball after this. Signed, sealed, delivered.

He would be dumb to play baseball if he's drafted in the 2nd round or higher in the NFL Draft. His rookie contract will be larger in the NFL in that scenario and the earnings potential is greater for a quarterback than a defensive corner outfield 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

He would be dumb to play baseball if he's drafted in the 2nd round or higher in the NFL Draft. His rookie contract will be larger in the NFL in that scenario and the earnings potential is greater for a quarterback than a defensive corner outfield 

He would and he wouldn't. You're absolutely right about the rookie contract in comparison, but on the flip side, if he's an average baseball player vs. an average football player, his baseball career and career earnings will likely be greater in baseball, not to mention more longevity, health/retirement benefits, and, this one is probably the most important, he loves the game more.

Honestly, I won't fault him either way. 

I will say this though: He'd be smart to throw his name in the NFL Draft and see if he gets drafted that high. Either the A's or the NFL team that drafts him will likely be upset, but oh well for them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We discussed Kyler Murray as a potential DEN target in our Team Forum back in early November, the part about his baseball future really kills the likelihood that he's going to be a future NFL player.   Here's my 2 posts on the details of MLB below, if you really want to read it.

But if not, here's the TLDR version lol:

1.  His top 10 1st round MLB draft status and college background mean a likely 1-2 year minor league stint at most, especially on OAK's team (they don't wait too long).

2.  His status as a position player, and almost certain floor as a top D-minded, average bat, great speed CF.   Position players who play middle of field have a lot of security because of the inherent D value.

3.  The arbitration years mean he gets paid in 2-3 years once he's promoted, not 6 years later.   If he's even just good, not great, he makes 8-10M Year 3 (if you get past the Super-2 exclusion, which OAK usually doesn't care about trying to delay), 12M+ Year 4, 15-18M year 5, 20M+ by Year 6 before hitting the gold mine of FA.   And in FA - the ENTIRE amount is guranteed.     

4.  MLB $ is FULLY guaranteed, and careers of 10-15 years are not crazy to project for position players. Top paid bats get paid 20M+ easy - generational talents get paid 30-40M, but even an impact bat is 20M+.     His potential earnings in MLB will FAR exceed NFL in terms of what matters most - guaranteed $.  And it comes with a far lower risk to his overall health long-term. 

Add it all up, I don't see how Murray projects to the NFL as a good bet - I"m not even sure he's going to go Day 2 TBH, given how much his career arc is trending to baseball.  It would take a LOT of guts to even throw a 3rd round pick his way, especially given what his agent already has said.

 

 

 

On 11/5/2018 at 2:36 PM, Broncofan said:

As for the $ argument of MLB vs. NFL, it all depends on where a guy slots in MLB & NFL wise.

The problem with the MLB 6-year service time argument - they really only need 2+ seasons before they start making 5-10M a year if they're just good, and 15-20M if they are great.  And unlike the NFL, MLB contracts are FULLY guaranteed once signed.     A typical MLB career for a good player, once you're more than JAG, can go 7-12 seasons...of  which the last 8+ are very lucrative.   If you are ARod, sure, you've made more.  But let's say you are just an average MLB pitcher, but you last 8 seasons of peak ability - you probably sign a 4-year 100M contract in Year 7-8 (and the last 2 years are duds).   And if you were good from Year 3 on, you will make 8M Year 3, 10-12M Year 4, 14-16 Year 5, and 20M Year 6.    And that's fully guaranteed $, too.   And then if you are a guy who can stay in the league for 2 FA contracts, making 150-250M isn't that hard.   Ridiculous how much a 12 year MLB pitcher makes. 

And let's face it, baseball has zero risk of CTE, and your body doesn't get put through a meat grinder.     The football-QB-pays-more narrative only works if you don't believe you can be a MLB-caliber starting SP.  If you can be a MLB-caliber starting pitcher, even the 3rd-4th starter on those teams makes 15M+ easy.   The top guys make 20-25M a year...and that's FULLY guaranteed once they get there.   And in their arbitration years, from Super-2 to year 6, they are on a multi-million dollar scale...and can't get pay cuts either, unless a team cuts them and lets them walk.

It's RIDICULOUS how the NFL is so team-friendly with non-guaranteed contracts for players, and the low scale guys get if they aren't a top 10 NFL pick.   There may be lots of reasons to get a Kyler Murray interested in football, but the $$ angle won't be a big seller. 

On 11/5/2018 at 3:15 PM, Broncofan said:

Well context matters - Murray's a 1st round pick, and not just any 1st rounder - but a top 10 pick.   The MLB draft is more hit and miss than the NFL, but the metrics have evolved so much, a top 10 pick is a massive investment.    It's not done lightly or with little background work, like in the 1960/70's lol.   And as a college pick, it's a different path than for younger 18 year olds.    Murray will likely spend 1-2 years in the MILB system at most, Oakland is a team that's known to push their college prospects quickly.  The tale of spending years in the MILB system riding buses in the back-country tems - that's for high school players.   Who often 3-4 years (the elite talents only use 2+ years, the odd guy takes 1 year, Ken Griffey-like talents).   Murray will probably get a low-A assignment his 1st year, and then get promoted to High-A or Double-A ball by year's end.    And then in year 2, get promoted to Double-A to start, and then straight to the bigs at some point in mid-year...or at latest, June in Year 3.   

Now, I should preface all of what I said before about pitchers - Murray's a position player.  The thing about position players in MLB - they have even LESS risk about longevity of careers.   The pitchers are the ones who have shorter careers.   Good position players, as long as they aren't JAG's, they can play well into their 30's.   

I have zero problem with the idea of Murray as a flyer pick - but there is no way we can spend a 1st on him, or even an early 2nd.  Even if we passed and someone else took him, I'd be shocked if it was any earlier than Day 3 TBH.   And then there's literally no real $ to attract him given the draft spot.    A top 10 pick, his path to baseball is THAT gold-laden.  Being a 1st round pick by the A's,  and a top 10 one, the A's aren't taking a flyer, they're taking a Mookie-Betts type leap of faith into his future.   

It's going to be REALLY hard for a NFL team with a shorter career, greater injury risk, and frankly, less $ to offer if no one is willing to spend Rd1 $.  And given the way MLB really is so player-friendly, it's a nice dream, but I do think we are so QB-starved we're seeing a mirage rather a real possibility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I'll give you bigger and perhaps stronger arm...but faster? Have you watched OU this season? He makes everyone else look slow.

I'd love to listen to the argument that Lamar Jackson isn't faster than Murray. Jackson is an elite athlete...for the NFL. Murray is a very good athlete, but Jackson blows him away in terms of speed.

I've seen a ton of Louisville & I've seen a ton of Oklahoma. Murray ain't Jackson fast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

He would and he wouldn't. You're absolutely right about the rookie contract in comparison, but on the flip side, if he's an average baseball player vs. an average football player, his baseball career and career earnings will likely be greater in baseball, not to mention more longevity, health/retirement benefits, and, this one is probably the most important, he loves the game more.

Honestly, I won't fault him either way. 

I will say this though: He'd be smart to throw his name in the NFL Draft and see if he gets drafted that high. Either the A's or the NFL team that drafts him will likely be upset, but oh well for them.

Can't compare earnings of just "average players". Need to have the context of what position he'd play in both sports. Quarterback money is a lot better than any other position. He would have to be the next Jose Altuve to make $30 million a year in baseball. By the time Murray would be on a 2nd contract in the NFL, he would just have to be a good quarterback to make $30 million a year. And yes, there typically is more longevity for baseball players but compared to quarterbacks that margin is reduced and when you consider just how long it takes to actually become a free agent in baseball, you might actually have more years on a free agent contract playing quarterback compared to playing baseball. There are also going to be far more endorsement opportunities as an NFL quarterback compared to being a defensive corner outfielder for the Oakland A's. Also, how do you know which game he loves more? Did I miss him stating that he prefers baseball over football?

You're right that you can't fault him either way. Either way, he's going to be making a lot of money and even if he fails he might be able to fall back on the other sport. But, it's much easier to fall back on baseball. He would be an outlier if he took time away from football and later on became a successful NFL quarterback.

He's 100% entering the draft. Where/how high he's drafted is going to be the #1 influence on his decision. Any NFL team drafting him early would only be doing so on the condition that drafting him that high would mean he plays for them and puts baseball on the backburner. That would be negotiated and decided long before draft night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I thought Wilson was 5'11 1/2?

And Murray is listed at 5'9. Chances are, he's a little under that.

Russell Wilson is 5'10.625"

Kyler Murray has been listed at 5'9" and 5'10", most expect that he will fall in between there. NFLDS has him at 5'9.75", they often get measurements in the spring from BLESTO scouts, so they're often pretty damn accurate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I'd love to listen to the argument that Lamar Jackson isn't faster than Murray. Jackson is an elite athlete...for the NFL. Murray is a very good athlete, but Jackson blows him away in terms of speed.

I've seen a ton of Louisville & I've seen a ton of Oklahoma. Murray ain't Jackson fast.

Lamar Jackson certainly looks a little faster in a straight line. I think you can make an argument that Murray has better lateral movement. Regardless, both are elite runners at the QB position.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...