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Kyler Murray Hypothetical


BleedTheClock

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

His potential earnings in MLB will FAR exceed NFL in terms of what matters most - guaranteed $.

that's making the assumption that the trend of QBs getting most if not all of their money guaranteed suddenly stops or reverses. Baseball contracts certainly are fully guaranteed, but a contract that guarantees $20 million a year with no additional earnings is objectively worse than a contract that pays $30 million per year with guarantees of $20 million per year (and that's not even considering the even greater endorsement earnings potential).

There are 19 non-pitchers earning $20 million or more per year in baseball, and they are all power hitters with the exceptions of Jason Heyward and Jacoby Elsbury (and even then, they have both displayed plenty of power throughout their careers). There are 15 quarterbacks making $20 million or more per year in football, and it would be 16 if Brady wasn't playing on such a giant discount. That number will also grow as the many young QBs in the NFL start to reach free agency in the next few years and set the market for QB contracts even higher. So, to make the same level of earnings in baseball as he would in football, he would have to be the next Jason Heyward or Jacoby Elsbury. He would make just as much money per year if he becomes the next Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, or Blake Bortles. He would make even more money if he can become the next Alex Smith, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, or Jimmy Garoppolo.

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I'd love to listen to the argument that Lamar Jackson isn't faster than Murray. Jackson is an elite athlete...for the NFL. Murray is a very good athlete, but Jackson blows him away in terms of speed.

I've seen a ton of Louisville & I've seen a ton of Oklahoma. Murray ain't Jackson fast.

They're both elite athletes...I don't know why it has to be one or the other.  Supposedly Kyler Murray ran a 4.38 forty last offseason, and Lamar Jackson ran a 4.34 forty when he was getting ready for the NFL.  They're both tremendous athletes.

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29 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

They're both elite athletes...I don't know why it has to be one or the other.  Supposedly Kyler Murray ran a 4.38 forty last offseason, and Lamar Jackson ran a 4.34 forty when he was getting ready for the NFL.  They're both tremendous athletes.

Exactly. We can split hairs about who might be faster or the better runner, but really all that matters is that they're both damn good and pretty special in that regard.

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4 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I'd love to listen to the argument that Lamar Jackson isn't faster than Murray. Jackson is an elite athlete...for the NFL. Murray is a very good athlete, but Jackson blows him away in terms of speed.

I've seen a ton of Louisville & I've seen a ton of Oklahoma. Murray ain't Jackson fast.

I agree.

 

Lamar Jackson put up crazy rushing numbers for a QB in college, he almost ran for 1600 yards two years in a row, and I really wish he ran the 40 at the combine.  Just look at how fast he is now currently in the NFL, he can run away from guys just like he did in college.  If he did run the 40 I have no question it would be in the 4.3 range if not possibly 4.29 or better.  Murray is arguably quicker from side to side sure, but yeah straight line speed Jackson is faster no question.

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1 hour ago, Danger said:

No, we haven't.

When he said "shorter" he didn't mean QBs shorter than Kyler Murray, he meant QBs that are shorter than the height people say a QB has to be (i.e. "shorter QBs")

unless... you're disagreeing with the fact that Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have been successful?

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4 hours ago, IDOG_det said:

that's making the assumption that the trend of QBs getting most if not all of their money guaranteed suddenly stops or reverses. Baseball contracts certainly are fully guaranteed, but a contract that guarantees $20 million a year with no additional earnings is objectively worse than a contract that pays $30 million per year with guarantees of $20 million per year (and that's not even considering the even greater endorsement earnings potential).

There are 19 non-pitchers earning $20 million or more per year in baseball, and they are all power hitters with the exceptions of Jason Heyward and Jacoby Elsbury (and even then, they have both displayed plenty of power throughout their careers). There are 15 quarterbacks making $20 million or more per year in football, and it would be 16 if Brady wasn't playing on such a giant discount. That number will also grow as the many young QBs in the NFL start to reach free agency in the next few years and set the market for QB contracts even higher. So, to make the same level of earnings in baseball as he would in football, he would have to be the next Jason Heyward or Jacoby Elsbury. He would make just as much money per year if he becomes the next Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, or Blake Bortles. He would make even more money if he can become the next Alex Smith, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, or Jimmy Garoppolo.

Actually, here's the list of guys who are making 20M this year:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

43 guys (and yeah, there are arms there, so that's apples & oranges) - and there are plenty of non-power guys who are there - Shin Shoo Choo, Joey Votto, Eric Hosmer.   And for 15M - it's 68 guys - and that list of do-it-all players who aren't sluggers goes way up - and it doesn't even include the best young players who are more do-it-all - the nature of the game has changed to where D and speed matter - it's why they use WAR and VORP so much more nowadays in arbitration hearings and FA cases.    Those are the guys that are going to set bars shortly, we're already seeing it in arbitration. Mookie Betts, a do-it-all guy, just set the highest 1st year eligible arbitration award.  Ever.   And he's not a slugger - just a guy who provides great D, speed, and hitting with some pop.   Exactly what Murray is profiled as, while Murray plays a more valuable position at CF (Betts probably could but Bradley Jr. is so good there).   So the power-only angle is out of date - and we can see it from arbitration recognizing the value of D and speed with the inclusion of metrics like WAR/VORP.

And if you look at the list - it's even more distinctive in that guys who are completely undeserving of the $ - are paid for years.  Totally guaranteed.   The career earning potential if you're just a good but not elite player is staggering.  And the career longevity profile in being a top 10 MLB player on a team that doesn't hold back on promoting its players is nuts.  And unlike football, when Murray starts to decline in the last few years of his career, he's not worried about losing the $.    He still gets paid.  

Murray is profiling more to be the Mookie Betts type profile - the new norm of the modern day MLB 3-way threat (speed, D, some power but it's not the calling card).   The thing is, the Mookie Betts of the world are getting paid now.    They just haven't hit FA yet - but that mold of player is also clearly setting the new bar.    

As for the point about QB salaries maybe someday becoming fully guaranteed as the norm - sure, when that is the norm, it's a great counterpoint.  But Murray is going to have to make that call this spring.   At this stage, it's pretty clear what most agents are going to tell him about what league is more player-friendly.   If it's only about the $...well, it's still not that close, it's why the NFLPA is seen as such a patsy and joke as a union in the professional sports world.

The thing about MLB - the money once you hit the big leagues - it's full guaranteed $.   NFL just can't match that.   Maybe someday, it will.  But not this offseason, when Murray has to make the call.   When you add the injury risk, and the investment OAK has already made that's likely going to give a ton of pause to NFL teams, well, there may be other reasons to attract Kyler Murray to play football over baseball - but $ isn't going to be the draw.

 

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45 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Actually, here's the list of guys who are making 20M this year:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

43 guys (and yeah, there are arms there, so that's apples & oranges) - and there are plenty of non-power guys who are there - Shin Shoo Choo, Joey Votto, Eric Hosmer.   And for 15M - it's 68 guys - and that list of do-it-all players who aren't sluggers goes way up - and it doesn't even include the best young players who are more do-it-all - the nature of the game has changed to where D and speed matter - it's why they use WAR and VORP so much more nowadays in arbitration hearings and FA cases.    Those are the guys that are going to set bars shortly, we're already seeing it in arbitration. Mookie Betts, a do-it-all guy, just set the highest 1st year eligible arbitration award.  Ever.   And he's not a slugger - just a guy who provides great D, speed, and hitting with some pop.   Exactly what Murray is profiled as, while Murray plays a more valuable position at CF (Betts probably could but Bradley Jr. is so good there).   So the power-only angle is out of date - and we can see it from arbitration recognizing the value of D and speed with the inclusion of metrics like WAR/VORP.

And if you look at the list - it's even more distinctive in that guys who are completely undeserving of the $ - are paid for years.  Totally guaranteed.   The career earning potential if you're just a good but not elite player is staggering.  And the career longevity profile in being a top 10 MLB player on a team that doesn't hold back on promoting its players is nuts.  And unlike football, when Murray starts to decline in the last few years of his career, he's not worried about losing the $.    He still gets paid.  

Murray is profiling more to be the Mookie Betts type profile - the new norm of the modern day MLB 3-way threat (speed, D, some power but it's not the calling card).   The thing is, the Mookie Betts of the world are getting paid now.    They just haven't hit FA yet - but that mold of player is also clearly setting the new bar.    

As for the point about QB salaries maybe someday becoming fully guaranteed as the norm - sure, when that is the norm, it's a great counterpoint.  But Murray is going to have to make that call this spring.   At this stage, it's pretty clear what most agents are going to tell him about what league is more player-friendly.   If it's only about the $...well, it's still not that close, it's why the NFLPA is seen as such a patsy and joke as a union in the professional sports world.

The thing about MLB - the money once you hit the big leagues - it's full guaranteed $.   NFL just can't match that.   Maybe someday, it will.  But not this offseason, when Murray has to make the call.   When you add the injury risk, and the investment OAK has already made that's likely going to give a ton of pause to NFL teams, well, there may be other reasons to attract Kyler Murray to play football over baseball - but $ isn't going to be the draw.

 

Yeah baseball high is crazy in terms of the contracts.  I mean does anyone even watch baseball anymore?  Like on TV?  I have not watched a full baseball game in years and cannot imagine the TV contracts are for big bucks.  It is obviously not the most popular sport in the country, at times freaking Hockey beats it out I think in ratings.  But you do have to play a Million games a year so the work load is a lot greater than the NFL.  However the physical requirements of the workload are a hell of a lot easier than football, I mean watch a guy in the outfield.  How they can play players that much I have no idea, but yeah if money is a factor baseball one could make way more, especially for a guy who does not have ideal NFL size for the QB position.  Sure it would be great if we had a Deion Sanders type who did both but since the seasons overlap I do not see that happening in this day and age.  

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I think someone would take him fairly early.  He's an awesome player.  ESPN list him at 195 pounds, so I think he needs to bulk up a bit to around 205 or 210.  The key in the NFL is that he has to learn how to slide and get out of bounds.  Russell Wilson isn't that much bigger than the weight I said Murray should bulk up to and he rarely gets hit outside of taking sacks.  Wilson might be the best ever at sliding and going out of bounds for a mobile QB.

I haven't watch Murray's tape, but as long as he can bulk up a bit and he has a arm strong enough to make every NFL throw, I wouldn't doubt he ends up being a really good NFL QB.

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Actually, here's the list of guys who are making 20M this year:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

43 guys (and yeah, there are arms there, so that's apples & oranges) - and there are plenty of non-power guys who are there - Shin Shoo Choo, Joey Votto, Eric Hosmer.   And for 15M - it's 68 guys - and that list of do-it-all players who aren't sluggers goes way up - and it doesn't even include the best young players who are more do-it-all - the nature of the game has changed to where D and speed matter - it's why they use WAR and VORP so much more nowadays in arbitration hearings and FA cases.    Those are the guys that are going to set bars shortly, we're already seeing it in arbitration. Mookie Betts, a do-it-all guy, just set the highest 1st year eligible arbitration award.  Ever.   And he's not a slugger - just a guy who provides great D, speed, and hitting with some pop.   Exactly what Murray is profiled as, while Murray plays a more valuable position at CF (Betts probably could but Bradley Jr. is so good there).   So the power-only angle is out of date - and we can see it from arbitration recognizing the value of D and speed with the inclusion of metrics like WAR/VORP.

And if you look at the list - it's even more distinctive in that guys who are completely undeserving of the $ - are paid for years.  Totally guaranteed.   The career earning potential if you're just a good but not elite player is staggering.  And the career longevity profile in being a top 10 MLB player on a team that doesn't hold back on promoting its players is nuts.  And unlike football, when Murray starts to decline in the last few years of his career, he's not worried about losing the $.    He still gets paid.  

Murray is profiling more to be the Mookie Betts type profile - the new norm of the modern day MLB 3-way threat (speed, D, some power but it's not the calling card).   The thing is, the Mookie Betts of the world are getting paid now.    They just haven't hit FA yet - but that mold of player is also clearly setting the new bar.    

As for the point about QB salaries maybe someday becoming fully guaranteed as the norm - sure, when that is the norm, it's a great counterpoint.  But Murray is going to have to make that call this spring.   At this stage, it's pretty clear what most agents are going to tell him about what league is more player-friendly.   If it's only about the $...well, it's still not that close, it's why the NFLPA is seen as such a patsy and joke as a union in the professional sports world.

The thing about MLB - the money once you hit the big leagues - it's full guaranteed $.   NFL just can't match that.   Maybe someday, it will.  But not this offseason, when Murray has to make the call.   When you add the injury risk, and the investment OAK has already made that's likely going to give a ton of pause to NFL teams, well, there may be other reasons to attract Kyler Murray to play football over baseball - but $ isn't going to be the draw.

 

4

"non-pitchers" it's 19 non-pitchers making an average of $20 million plus. You linked current year salaries, not the average salary over the life of the deal. The link you provided is misleading because players are earning high totals in the current year than they are over the life of their contract. If you're going to evaluate it properly then you have to look at the average yearly pay, not just the highest single year.

 

Also, not sure how Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto, and Eric Hosmer aren't power hitters when they're hitting over 20 HRs per year each. Not sure we can pretend that Kyler is going to have the power to reach that kind of production to get that kind of contract. It's a reach to say he could get the contracts they have and the contract they have aren't better than QB contracts given to QBs who are worse by comparison. 

Also not sure how we can count Mookie Betts in the "not a power hitter" category when he's hit 31 and 24 HRs in the past two years respectively. If Kyler Murray is the next Mookie Betts, then great, he might make some serious money in baseball. But, from all accounts he doesn't have the power to be that kind of player and if we're just assuming he can be one of the best in baseball, then why are we assuming he can't be one the best in football? If we're talking about all of these hypothetical scenarios, why are we limiting what he can be in one sport and not the other?

QB salaries are already becoming fully guaranteed, just ask Kirk Cousins. And the ones that aren't are still full of significant guarantees. You can say the same thing about the earning potential if you're just a "good not elite" quarterback as well, in fact, I did say that, yet it was ignored. Average or good quarterbacks are making more money than average or good baseball players.

Also, the NFL can match fully guaranteed money. The rookie contracts are guaranteed and players can negotiate a fully guaranteed contract. The only thing stopping it from happening is players not being willing to hold strong in asking for it.

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