Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers GDT

[broncosfan07]

Once again I’ll be in Nashville all week(between last week and the week of Jan 7 making 8 flights to and from Denver), so another generic GDT.

 

Should be a very winnable game, 49ers are a mess this season and don’t have much motivation to win the game and fall down the draft order at this point. I did tell you all not to take Lindsay lightly kids always been a baller.

[jsthomp2007]

These threads go up fast when the Broncos are winning. 

[broncosfan07]

9 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

These threads go up fast when the Broncos are winning. 

Also when your Wi-Fi at the hotel is prehistoric and the alternative is waiting until Friday.

[BroncoBruin]

The one thing that concerns me here is Kyle Shanahan. The way he schemes FBs/RBs/TEs open could be some trouble. As poorly as Marshall has played, he's still better suited to handle these matchups in space than any of our other LBs so hopefully he's back. If they can do a decent job here, no reason Denver shouldn't take care of business. 

[champ11]

smashville bruuuuhhhhhh SMASH VEGAS 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

The one thing that concerns me here is Kyle Shanahan. The way he schemes FBs/RBs/TEs open could be some trouble. As poorly as Marshall has played, he's still better suited to handle these matchups in space than any of our other LBs so hopefully he's back. If they can do a decent job here, no reason Denver shouldn't take care of business. 

Yeah, one look at the OAK and NYG games on prime time, and SEA yesterday showed 3 things:

1.   Shanahan really knows how to get the best matchups for his skill players to succeed.    Some weeks, it's the RB's who eat.   Others, it's TE George Kittle (who really is an emerging talent).  The past 2 weeks, WR Dante Pettis.

2.   QB Nick Mullens is just a guy.    It's funny how ppl fell all over themselves when Mullens lit up OAK - we've certainly seen enough flashes from journeymen types to know the feeling.  

3.   SF's secondary can't cover...

Anyways, headed off to trips this week too, so an early analysis, here are the trouble spots:

1.   Shanahan's scheming - as @BroncoBruin highlighted, their best players are their RB's & TE's (although Pettis is starting to emerge).    

2.   Our pass D overall with CHJ out - this is a huge problem, it just so happened with CIN that they had only 1 WR of any notable talent (Boyd) after AJ Green left (who Stewart then crushed hard).   Now, one might think SF has no WR talent - but Dante Pettis is an intriguing rookie, and WR Marquise Goodwin has been away the last 2 weeks for personal reasons (???), so he might return.  Those 2 and their possession guy Kendrick Bourne (I just like mentioning his name as the Bourne Ultimatum etc. - although he's very sure-handed, but yeah, not emerging or anything).   The one thing SF has is speed in droves with those 2 and Richie James.

3.   TE Kittle, RB/FB's Breida, Jusczyk and...Tom Wilson Jr.?  - the SF RB's are actually quite productive, and Jusczyk is one of the best FB's in the game.   Todd Davis has played better, but he's still a guy lost in space (our scheme has limited his need to play in space).   This is where no Jewell and no Marshall would be even more problematic - because it forces Davis to play one of these guys, and they can all burn ILB's on pass routes.   As for Kittle, he's an absolute beast - one of the emerging next-gen TE freaks (OJ Howard, David Njoku & he are already at Hunter Henry pre-injury levels in their year 2, behind the elite Ertz/Kelce tier).  

4.  Keenum - man, he was not accurate at all...even with time, even with play action.    The 1H was really hard to watch.  Again, CIN was so bad, we can get away with it, but most games, that 1H sinks us with a deficit, not a lead.

Those are the problems, but they are still not enough to call a L - for the following reasons:

1.  Nick Mullens is JAG - the shine has come off the backup QB who starts hot, but gets a ton of film.   No surprise, and I'd be shocked if the D can't find a way to create 2+ TO's and 3-4 sacks, even on the road.

2.  SF can't defend the pass, and can't bring the heat in pass rush - I reference Keenum as a perpetual concern, but in this week, he's going to get a matchup that is very much a plus - the secondary are filled with guys who are beatable, and most of all, their pass rush is bottom-10.   While GM Lynch has brought in a lot of talent to the roster, and that trade for JimmyG for a 2nd is a franchise-changer, going with Solomon Thomas at 1.3 (he was smart enough to leverage CHI for extra picks) is probably the one huge blemish, as Thomas hasn't flashed elite talent at all.   I suppose it could still happen, but while 2 years is still too early for Day 3 draft picks, it's not too soon to evaluate Rd2 guys...and for 1.3, it's not too late for him to salvage value from the pick, as it's a sunk cost, but man, disappointing is an understatement. 

3.  SF is just OK against the run - with Foster gone (and hurting this year), while they found a gem in Fred Warner (really was hoping we could snag him later, nope, Shanny was all over him), and that underperforming DL, SF isn't awful against the run - but they're aren't nearly as good as their investment in the front 7 should create.   

Again, in a game like this, being on the road, the key is simple - avoid mistakes with TO's, get a lead, and then the D can force mistakes with Mullens.   Now, a huge difference with SF vs. CIN - they actually are well-coached, and their OL isn't decimated to the same degree as CIN's was.  But they actually are just as vulnerable, if not more on D.   Their O is better, but only marginally with QB Mullens at the helm (put a real QB there, though...but not this year).  So, I'd see a 24-20 type game again, barring TO's.   After this, then the crucible really begins, although as with any road game, certainly no lock.

[Broncofan]

Btw some good news - CHJ’s fracture is apparently a chip fracture and not a break. If it was a break it’s 6-8 weeks recovery.  With a chip 4+ is possible.  It probably still keeps him out of the RoS but long term there’s pretty much zero risk.  Best case scenario.  

 

[lomaxgrUK]

Shanahan's scheme (like McVay's) starts with the run. There's presnap stuff going on, but all of the motions, misdirections and play action require an active run game to have success. The fact is, if we keep this Offense to 3rd and long then we will have a shot at winning this game.

George Kittle is a concern and a big one at that. It looked like Simmons did a nice job in the slot last week, so maybe we will try matching him up with Kittle on 3rd down (where Kittle rarely aligns inline).

We could really do with Case starting hot for a change in this one. Force the 49ers to go aerial when the game is competitive and I fancy us. If we struggle for points early again then I just can't see us scraping yet another win when we've been poor aerially on Offense for so long within a game.

[champ11]

4 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Shanahan's scheme (like McVay's) starts with the run. There's presnap stuff going on, but all of the motions, misdirections and play action require an active run game to have success. The fact is, if we keep this Offense to 3rd and long then we will have a shot at winning this game.

George Kittle is a concern and a big one at that. It looked like Simmons did a nice job in the slot last week, so maybe we will try matching him up with Kittle on 3rd down (where Kittle rarely aligns inline).

We could really do with Case starting hot for a change in this one. Force the 49ers to go aerial when the game is competitive and I fancy us. If we struggle for points early again then I just can't see us scraping yet another win when we've been poor aerially on Offense for so long within a game.

Sutton needs more targets.....period

[jsthomp2007]

1 minute ago, champ11 said:

Sutton needs more targets.....period

Not like you have to throw it perfectly to him...like last week, was their a pass that he caught that was right at him?  Dude is going to be unstoppable next year. 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Sutton needs more targets.....period

He's still learning the X position, and so he's not put himself at the right spot in different plays - but the one skill he owns, is that he doesn't need to be open when a defender is in trail coverage to win those 50-50 balls.   That's a particular situation where Keenum's deficiencies can be minimized - we saw it in his TD and his last catch - Keenum's unable to throw guys open, but it doesn't matter if Sutton can outleap/outfight his defender.  That last catch was clear OPI - but it was done without the arm extended - and that's something WR's learn over time, because if the arm's not extended, it's rarely called.     As that's an actual skill that WR's develop over time (in college, Sutton could just outleap/box out guys, in the NFL with the skill level bump, the subtle position/fighting skills are needed, AB is a master at this as an example), I expect Sutton will only improve in this area next year.

[Broncofan]

Uh oh, this is very, very bad if it's serious.  Non-contact is very scary.  Hope #10 is OK.

 

[broncofan48]

8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Uh oh, this is very, very bad if it's serious.  Non-contact is very scary.  Hope #10 is OK.

 

Got an update on my phone saying team fears its an Achilles tear

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, broncofan48 said:

Got an update on my phone saying team fears its an Achilles tear

With this news, I expect that SF will now use Richard Sherman in shadow coverage on Sutton, and dare Keenum to beat us elsewhere.   Now, Sherman's still good, but he's not a world beater elite CB anymore - just very good.   I expect that will be a great matchup to watch.  But it also narrows the gap on how our pass game can exploit their incredibly vulnerable secondary.    Their secondary besides Sherman is just awful - but now we really have no one else who's stepped up yet. 

I love DeSean Hamilton's outlook as our future slot guy, but it's going to be interesting to see if he's ready now.   Same for Tim Patrick, who's basically been matched up against the 3rd/4th DB (or left unaccounted for) when he's made plays.   SF isn't much of a test, but it's still going to be a big day for them.

[broncofan48]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

With this news, I expect that SF will now use Richard Sherman in shadow coverage on Sutton, and dare Keenum to beat us elsewhere.   Now, Sherman's still good, but he's not a world beater elite CB anymore - just very good.   I expect that will be a great matchup to watch.  But it also narrows the gap on how our pass game can exploit their incredibly vulnerable secondary.    Their secondary besides Sherman is just awful - but now we really have no one else who's stepped up yet. 

I love DeSean Hamilton's outlook as our future slot guy, but it's going to be interesting to see if he's ready now.   Same for Tim Patrick, who's basically been matched up against the 3rd/4th DB (or left unaccounted for) when he's made plays.   SF isn't much of a test, but it's still going to be a big day for them.

Was reading that Sherman doesn't shadow, plays left side of the field, not sure if that's true or not