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Revisiting the Khalil Mack Trade


MacReady

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Just now, Outpost31 said:

That's the only thing that can save them, yes.  Trubisky isn't improving. 

His only games with a QB rating over 86 were against: Niners, Packers, Lions, Jets, Dolphins, Buccaneers. 

 

I'm never gonna write a player off after his second season. 

We can debate the relative likeliness of him developing into "elite" status. I don't think it's very likely personally, but I'm also not going to dismiss the possibility entirely.

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13 minutes ago, squire12 said:

You think that group of FA will cost 30+ million for 2019?

They're probably pushing that $20M if we're being honest.  Callahan probably gets $7M minimum, probably pushing closer to $10M.  Massie gets $5M+.  Amos should at least fetch $4M even in a depressed market.

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 I ridiculed the trade at the time but in retrospect it was not as bad as I thought. Mack was part of a last-place Oakland defense, so I thought it was foolish to get him if he could not even prevent his team from being a bottom-dweller, elite though he may be -- football is about whole units, not individual superstars.

But like with Cooper, I underestimated just how much of a back hole Oakland truly is for talented players (for the record: Cooper was still a bad trade because they probably could have gotten him for less).

Mack has been dominant for the Bears and I think the argument can be made that he has been more valuable for that team than another two 1st-round draft picks (one of which we now know will be a relatively late 1st) would have been, and then they pretty much upgraded a 3rd to a 2nd and a 6th to a 5th.

So yes, I think that worked out nicely overall for CHI.

At the same token, I do not regret that Gutey did not steal their thunder and brought him to Green Bay. Our defense has suffered from multiple high draft-pick investments not panning out or being let to walk away much too early, and I think we need a youth talent injection rather than just the one "big splash" acquisition.

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25 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm never gonna write a player off after his second season. 

We can debate the relative likeliness of him developing into "elite" status. I don't think it's very likely personally, but I'm also not going to dismiss the possibility entirely.

he had a couple nice balls tonight. I think he has a shot to be pretty decent, actually. I've been higher on him than most here though, too.

I like him more than Stafford. But that's a low bar too.

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32 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

What?  The Bears have 20 million in cap.  Why you asking if it will cost 30+ million? 

As few draft picks as they have, they still have to pay their rookies.  They have to get to 51 players.  It's not, "They have 20 million dollars to spend on free agents." 

They're going to need 7 of that 20 million JUST to get to the minimum amount of players to have on a roster. 

That leaves 13 million dollars to re-sign:

Massie, Amos, Callahan. 

Callahan is getting 6 million per.
Amos is getting probably 7 million per. 

They're losing one of them, or they're cutting someone to afford them. 

The Bears are losing players without the money nor the cap space to replace them. 

Carryover of $5M + $19M + the $10-13M bump in base cap across the league.  Puts them somewhere between $35-40M

Their rookies will cost about $2.5.  (4 rookie picks total)

RFA for about $4M (4 total) 

39 players + those 8 players means 4 more to get there with around $30M to spend.  

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Just now, squire12 said:

Carryover of $5M + $19M + the $10-13M bump in base cap across the league.  Puts them somewhere between $35-40M

Their rookies will cost about $2.5.  (4 rookie picks total)

RFA for about $4M (4 total) 

39 players + those 8 players means 4 more to get there with around $30M to spend.  

No, I'm sorry that's wrong. 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

They unequivocally do NOT have 30 million dollars to spend. 

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1 minute ago, Outpost31 said:

No, I'm sorry that's wrong. 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

They unequivocally do NOT have 30 million dollars to spend. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/cap/  2018 cap space ($5.1M)

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/cap/2019/   2019 cap space ($19.6M)

League wide, salary cap is expected to go from $177M to around $190M (net increase of around 12-13)

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Just now, squire12 said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/cap/  2018 cap space ($5.1M)

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/cap/2019/   2019 cap space ($19.6M)

League wide, salary cap is expected to go from $177M to around $190M (net increase of around 12-13)

The calculation already includes a $190million cap. The Bears have ~$20million in space with a $190million cap.

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Just now, squire12 said:

I am not sure that is the case, could be wrong on that.  If so, that changes things a bit.

That is correct, but they will grab 6 more by cutting Dion Sims. Still, given what they have to re-sign they are going into next year with very little roster turnover other than the free agents they lose. 

They go backwards next year. 

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2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I don't understand where the confusion is: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

It has the $190 figure right at the top of the table in the link @Outpost31 gave above

The spotrac link also has a breakdown at the bottom that shows it's based on a 189M cap and includes 5M rollover in the 19.6M number

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also need to factor in the cap held for empty roster spots

194.1m total (incl. rollover)
-174.1m roster (inlcudes 39 players)
-  0.3m dead money
-  1.9m 2019 draft picks (#24 draft slot in rounds 3, 5, and 7)
= $17.8m cap space for 42 rostered players

-   4.5m cap holds to fill the remaining 9 roster slots ($0.5m per)
= $13.3m cap space left over 

cut candidates are probably Sims and Acho, which would give them another $7m in cap if replacing those guys with minimum salaries. maybe could scrape together another $2m if they cut Chase and roll the dice on QB health.

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