MacReady Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 So yeah. Even AFTER cutting Acho and Sims AND their backup QB, Bears have 21 million in cap space. This isn't a case where it's lol cap space isn't a problem that can't be solved by cap manipulation. They are in legitimate trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacman5252 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 You really can’t put a final grade on this trade until like 2024 when you’ll see the complete impact of this deal. 2018 Mack was always going to help the team (they haven’t given anything up yet and got an all pro player) 2019 the trade will still likely be a net positive (young player and Cap<Mack) 2020 it could be closer to a push, 2 young players, cap, a year older Mack 2021-24 an older Mack making top money and not having cheap contracts will take a toll I know GB won’t get Clowney, but I’d rather have him at 20m and 2 firsts over Mack and no picks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MantyWrestler Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 (edited) 19 minutes ago, pacman5252 said: You really can’t put a final grade on this trade until like 2024 when you’ll see the complete impact of this deal. 2018 Mack was always going to help the team (they haven’t given anything up yet and got an all pro player) 2019 the trade will still likely be a net positive (young player and Cap<Mack) 2020 it could be closer to a push, 2 young players, cap, a year older Mack 2021-24 an older Mack making top money and not having cheap contracts will take a toll I know GB won’t get Clowney, but I’d rather have him at 20m and 2 firsts over Mack and no picks. People act like Gute didn’t even try to get Mack. We offered, the Bears did too and Oakland took their offer. How many first round picks did people want Gute to give for him, 3? Look at what a dumpster fire we were in offensive this year. Does Mack fix that? Say we did get Mack, no first pick this year and no cap room because of Mack’s contract. How would you fix this team? Edited January 7, 2019 by MantyWrestler 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: So yeah. Even AFTER cutting Acho and Sims AND their backup QB, Bears have 21 million in cap space. This isn't a case where it's lol cap space isn't a problem that can't be solved by cap manipulation. They are in legitimate trouble. Yea but this argument loses relevance, at least for 2019, because they aren't really losing anyone.... You really think losing a slot corner or a right tackle is going to derail this team? If they had $20 mil and Mack, Hicks and Cohen for example were UFAs, I'd be right there with you... At worst, let's say the Bears have 20 of their 22 starters from this season, not factoring in how they use that extra $20 mil, plus rookies, and internal growth. You see them being a significantly worse team on paper in 2019? What am I missing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Yea but this argument loses relevance, at least for 2019, because they aren't really losing anyone.... You really think losing a slot corner or a right tackle is going to derail this team? If they had $20 mil and Mack, Hicks and Cohen for example were UFAs, I'd be right there with you... At worst, let's say the Bears have 20 of their 22 starters from this season, not factoring in how they use that extra $20 mil, plus rookies, and internal growth. You see them being a significantly worse team on paper in 2019? What am I missing? I don't necessarily think they'll regress, but I can see two potential factors: 1. Injuries. They were really healthy this year until losing Eddie Jackson and Trey Burton in the playoffs. They'll probably have worse luck next year. 2. Trubisky. Common sense says the highly touted third-year QB will take another step forward in Nagy's offense, but having watched him in a number of games and seeing the Bears offense falter down the stretch, I wonder if DCs haven't started to figure him and Nagy out a bit. I'm not a Trubisky believer, so I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles in 2019. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 49 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: So yeah. Even AFTER cutting Acho and Sims AND their backup QB, Bears have 21 million in cap space. This isn't a case where it's lol cap space isn't a problem that can't be solved by cap manipulation. They are in legitimate trouble. At least they have a bunch of drafts picks to fix it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang! Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Khalil Mack is an elite NFL superstar who probably had the most significant impact of any single player on the improved success of his new team. A player of his magnitude comes along every 10+ years and the opportunity to add him to your roster without a hefty penalty is an opportunity that requires at least a serious look. Adding Mack to their roster has had a significant impact on the entire team. To argue against this is ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as stating that multiple Macks will result from this draft class. The prospects you mentioned are talented but no where near the level of Mack and while it is possible, to dominate in the fashion that Mack has is only achieved once every 10 years. There is so much missing from your assessment, including the humility to recognize when you start believing your own hype over a widely accepted belief that is shared by the best minds in the game. This is gotta be how PFF started, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Lodestar said: I don't necessarily think they'll regress, but I can see two potential factors: 1. Injuries. They were really healthy this year until losing Eddie Jackson and Trey Burton in the playoffs. They'll probably have worse luck next year. 2. Trubisky. Common sense says the highly touted third-year QB will take another step forward in Nagy's offense, but having watched him in a number of games and seeing the Bears offense falter down the stretch, I wonder if DCs haven't started to figure him and Nagy out a bit. I'm not a Trubisky believer, so I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles in 2019. Regarding Trubisky, his completion rating is pretty solid on his #1 read, and he’s dangerous running out of the pocket. Take away his first read and keep him contained and he’s not really a threat. As you said, I think defenses have caught on and are able to neutralize him and the offense fairly well - it’s their defense that keeps them in the games. And what’s with only feeding Cohen the ball four times today? Just weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, pacman5252 said: You really can’t put a final grade on this trade until like 2024 when you’ll see the complete impact of this deal. 2018 Mack was always going to help the team (they haven’t given anything up yet and got an all pro player) 2019 the trade will still likely be a net positive (young player and Cap<Mack) 2020 it could be closer to a push, 2 young players, cap, a year older Mack 2021-24 an older Mack making top money and not having cheap contracts will take a toll I know GB won’t get Clowney, but I’d rather have him at 20m and 2 firsts over Mack and no picks. good points. That's why I think the Bears could still be tough in 2019. Sure, they'll erode, but there is a lag on the effect of lost picks. most picks don't contribute much until yr 2 or 3 anyways, so there is a small window before the loss of those picks will start to reveal itself. Things are still on the fence with Trubisky. If he doesn't take a decent step forward, I think their window is shut after 2019. But I don't think he's like Bortles-level bad, so don't anticipate a Jags-like implosion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatZepp Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 hours ago, TransientTexan said: also need to factor in the cap held for empty roster spots 194.1m total (incl. rollover) -174.1m roster (inlcudes 39 players) - 0.3m dead money - 1.9m 2019 draft picks (#24 draft slot in rounds 3, 5, and 7) = $17.8m cap space for 42 rostered players - 4.5m cap holds to fill the remaining 9 roster slots ($0.5m per) = $13.3m cap space left over cut candidates are probably Sims and Acho, which would give them another $7m in cap if replacing those guys with minimum salaries. maybe could scrape together another $2m if they cut Chase and roll the dice on QB health. Well Sims and Acho will be cut though I don’t think Chase Daniel is cutable, the savings won’t cover the signing costs of a cheap veteran backup. Kyle Long and Danny Trevathan would be cutable, Trevathan more so and he would save 6.4. He’s a starter but not worth that money. Who really wants to pay the #2 ILB in a 3-4 defense $7 million? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 When the draft rolls around next April...the first pick the bears have will be # 88. At that point in time, the Packers will have already made 4 selections 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: When the draft rolls around next April...the first pick the bears have will be # 88. At that point in time, the Packers will have already made 4 selections it must be sad to try to do mock drafts for the bears fans 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, TheGreatZepp said: Well Sims and Acho will be cut though I don’t think Chase Daniel is cutable, the savings won’t cover the signing costs of a cheap veteran backup. Kyle Long and Danny Trevathan would be cutable, Trevathan more so and he would save 6.4. He’s a starter but not worth that money. Who really wants to pay the #2 ILB in a 3-4 defense $7 million? Yea, I looked at Trevathan and it seemed borderline. I agree, he's not worth 6.4, I think he's still maybe consistently worth $3.5+m, so not a ton of savings to be had, even if fortune has it that there just so happens to be a $3.5m value ILB available on the FA market this year and that the team FO can correctly identify which guy that is. Long's still probably worth $3.5-4m (especially seeing as Witzmann was a dumpster fire in the second half of the season). Cuttable if you absolutely need the extra couple mil and feel good about a replacement option, but still a risk in doing so. It's all just risk management, and that's one of the way's successful teams erode. Trying to trim here and there as you get more successful and draft capital dries up. It's easy to justify slight reductions in depth & reliability if you look at any move individually, but it adds up cumulatively and makes it harder for a team to withstand any regressions in all sorts of factors, including health. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 When I looked at the Bears situation, I thought that the only chance they had to improve was via improvement within the roster. Namely, Trubisky. I think they can hold their ground at RT. I think that Callahan is a great slot corner, but that can be mitigated some with their elite pass rush. And they will lose a little depth. It all comes down to how they can progress Trubisky. I think he got by this year with a great head coach dialing up great first reads on offense. He struggled when he had to come off that first read and move through his progression. His feet really bailed him out, as typically happens with young QB's. It all comes down to Mitch. The interesting thing is that defense. If Smith improves and that rush stays the same...well...it certainly makes life on offense easier. It'll be very interesting to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The problem the Bears have is teams, especially those in the NFC North, will build rosters and systems to counter their strengths. When they can't significantly change their roster, and then get chipped away a bit by free agency, they lose ground just based on the compensatory moves that other teams make. Bears had a significant advantage this year in that they added Mack in the last week of preseason, at a time when teams had prepared for a division without him. One can't say never, but it is extremely unlikely that they can make a significant change like that again this year. You gotta bet that the new coach in Green Bay is going to install an offense that deals with the issues that Hicks and Mack create. It obviously won't be easy, but the division should be much better prepared for them next year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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