Revisiting the Khalil Mack Trade

[MantyWrestler]

17 hours ago, Bang! said:

Khalil Mack is an elite NFL superstar who probably had the most significant impact of any single player on the improved success of his new team. A player of his magnitude comes along every 10+ years and the opportunity to add him to your roster without a hefty penalty is an opportunity that requires at least a serious look. Adding Mack to their roster has had a significant impact on the entire team.  To argue against this is ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as stating that multiple Macks will result from this draft class.

The prospects you mentioned  are talented but no where near the level of Mack and while it is possible, to dominate in the fashion that Mack has is only achieved once every 10 years.

There is so much missing from your assessment, including the humility to recognize when you start believing your own hype over a widely accepted belief that is shared by the best minds in the game.

This is gotta be how PFF started, right?

 

So, what should the Packers have offered? I mean, I assume we offered 2 number 1’s but Oakland took the Bears offer. I’ll bet we needed to go with 3 number 1’s to get him of a LOT of lower picks as well. Remember, the Packers and Saints were both viewed as having Super Bowl potential this year and the Bears were supposed to be the Bears. 

[CWood21]

On 1/6/2019 at 11:06 PM, Bang! said:

Khalil Mack is an elite NFL superstar who probably had the most significant impact of any single player on the improved success of his new team. A player of his magnitude comes along every 10+ years and the opportunity to add him to your roster without a hefty penalty is an opportunity that requires at least a serious look. Adding Mack to their roster has had a significant impact on the entire team.  To argue against this is ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as stating that multiple Macks will result from this draft class.

The prospects you mentioned  are talented but no where near the level of Mack and while it is possible, to dominate in the fashion that Mack has is only achieved once every 10 years.

There is so much missing from your assessment, including the humility to recognize when you start believing your own hype over a widely accepted belief that is shared by the best minds in the game.

This is gotta be how PFF started, right?

The problem isn't just giving Mack his mega-deal.  It's the fact that they gave up TWO FRPs on top of that.  If you're signing Khalil Mack as a FA, the only thing you're kicking down the drain is that cap space.  When you make a Mack deal, you're giving up cap space AND premium picks.  There's a reason why teams usually don't trade multiple FRPs, and when they do it usually involves a QB.  I believe since 2010, 6 of the 8 draft day trades that involved multiple FRPs involved a QB.  Teams don't give up multiple FRPs on a whim.

[ThatJerkDave]

On 1/7/2019 at 12:15 AM, TheGreatZepp said:

Well Sims and Acho will be cut though I don’t think Chase Daniel is cutable, the savings won’t cover the signing costs of a cheap veteran backup. Kyle Long and Danny Trevathan would be cutable, Trevathan more so and he would save 6.4. He’s a starter but not worth that money. Who really wants to pay the #2 ILB in a 3-4 defense $7 million? 

You don't cut Chase Daniel!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

That is grounds for me to... triple hate the Bears!!!!!!!!!!!

[ThatJerkDave]

I don't see how this hurts the Bears in 2019, like at all.  They NEED a RT and 3rd CB.  They have $19 million and 3, 4, 5, 7(x2, I think) draft picks.  That is not impossible to overcome, nor that difficult.  It hurts team depth in a couple of seasons, but not immediately.  

[Pool]

40 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

The problem isn't just giving Mack his mega-deal.  It's the fact that they gave up TWO FRPs on top of that.  If you're signing Khalil Mack as a FA, the only thing you're kicking down the drain is that cap space.  When you make a Mack deal, you're giving up cap space AND premium picks.  There's a reason why teams usually don't trade multiple FRPs, and when they do it usually involves a QB.  I believe since 2010, 6 of the 8 draft day trades that involved multiple FRPs involved a QB.  Teams don't give up multiple FRPs on a whim.

Bears-Kahlil Mack, Raiders early 2nd round pick

Raiders- 2 late Bears first round picks

The sky is falling. 

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, Pool said:

Bears-Kahlil Mack, Raiders early 2nd round pick

Raiders- 2 late Bears first round picks

The sky is falling. 

I'm not even going to waste my time.

[MacReady]

Just now, ThatJerkDave said:

I don't see how this hurts the Bears in 2019, like at all.  They NEED a RT and 3rd CB.  They have $19 million and 3, 4, 5, 7(x2, I think) draft picks.  That is not impossible to overcome, nor that difficult.  It hurts team depth in a couple of seasons, but not immediately.  

For the love of God, they do NOT have 19 million dollars. 

They have 13 million dollars in effective cap space.  That's cap space that they have after they get to 51 players. 

They have a punter as a free agent.  Average punter salary?  1.5 million. 
Their starting RT is a free agent.  Average starting RT salary?  4.5 million.
Their starting safety is a free agent.  Average starting safety salary?  6.5 million.
Their slot corner is a free agent.  The 60th highest paid corner in the league is getting paid 2.3 million dollars. 

That right there is 14.8 million dollars when the Bears have 13 million in effective cap space. 

Cutting Dion Sims and Sam Acho saves them 7.5 million dollars. 

Those are the only two expendable players they have where cutting them won't impact them.
They could cut Trevathan.  Guess what happens if they cut him.  They... They lose Trevathan. 

They aren't re-signing Callahan.  His market value is 7 million per year. 
They aren't re-signing Massie.  He's gonna make 6 million per year. 
They aren't re-signing Amos.  He's gonna make 6 million per year minimum.  Eric Reid signed in-season and got 6 million. 

Pretend the punter doesn't matter and that they don't re-sign Massie nor Callahan nor Amos. 

That means they have 13 million dollars, 20.5 million once they cut Sims and Acho.  Let's pretend they also cut Trevathan. 

That would give them 25.5 million dollars in cap space. 

After all that, after losing all those players, that would still put them tied for 20th in cap space in the league. 

That's 20th in cap space after losing a starting RT, Slot Corner, starting safety, punter, starting ILB and having zero picks in the first two rounds of the draft. 

How does anybody look at that situation and think, "Oh, psh, the Bears are fine." 

 

[KingOfTheNorth]

2 minutes ago, Pool said:

Bears-Kahlil Mack, Raiders early 2nd round pick

Raiders- 2 late Bears first round picks

The sky is falling. 

"On September 1, 2018, following Mack's holdout through the entire preseason, the Raiders traded him, a 2020 second-round pick, and a conditional 5th round draft pick in 2020 (condition unknown) to the Chicago Bears for 2019 (24th overall, TBD) and 2020 first-round picks, as well as future sixth and third round selections. Shortly after the trade, Mack signed a six-year deal worth $141 million featuring $90 million guaranteed, becoming the highest-paid defender in NFL history. "

 

I included the full trade for your reference. 

[MacReady]

Just now, CWood21 said:

I'm not even going to waste my time.

Why not?  Because he's assuming the Raiders still suck after getting 3 first round picks this year and he's assuming the Bears are still good with zero first round picks when the Raiders have the 5th most cap space and the Bears have the 7th least cap space? 

[Pool]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not even going to waste my time.

Me neither. 

[Pool]

5 minutes ago, KingOfTheNorth said:

"On September 1, 2018, following Mack's holdout through the entire preseason, the Raiders traded him, a 2020 second-round pick, and a conditional 5th round draft pick in 2020 (condition unknown) to the Chicago Bears for 2019 (24th overall, TBD) and 2020 first-round picks, as well as future sixth and third round selections. Shortly after the trade, Mack signed a six-year deal worth $141 million featuring $90 million guaranteed, becoming the highest-paid defender in NFL history. "

 

I included the full trade for your reference. 

I just stuck to the meat of the trade. I probably should have included the 3rd rounder. I get that some of your posters here need to believe this trade will sink the Bears. It won't.That's reality. The Bears will be fine and the Mack trade was a huge home run for them. At this point it's abundantly clear that there's several posters here who just refuse to believe this. I'll just leave them to their delusions then and won't comment further. 

[PossibleCabbage]

So I figure the risk with the Mack trade is that it occupies a significant quantity of the Bears resources to improve their team (premium draft picks and salary cap dollars)  during 2/3 of the remaining years in which their QB is cheap.   Absolutely the best way to win a championship in the NFL these days is to hit on a young QB and build the team while his salary is kept down by the rookie wage scale.  So if the Bears weren't a championship calibre team this year (which, they probably were not), how are they going to be significantly better next year or two years from now?  Not only are they losing Fangio, they are also liable to lose more than they gain in free agency this year. (Massie and Amos are free agents, and someone will pay Lynch).  Plus if it turns out their QB isn't the guy, they are unlikely to be in position in the near term to get a new one.

Edited January 9, 2019 by PossibleCabbage

[CWood21]

29 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Why not?  Because he's assuming the Raiders still suck after getting 3 first round picks this year and he's assuming the Bears are still good with zero first round picks when the Raiders have the 5th most cap space and the Bears have the 7th least cap space? 

Between all the assumptions being made and the fact that he refuses to add in the 3rd round pick as part of the trade, I'm not sure there's a real discussion to be had.

[vegas492]

I don't think that Chicago is "sunk" like at all.

But they really have to hope that their depth improves, because they are losing a couple pieces without a lot of draft capital.  So this years reserves may be next years starters at key positions.  And they were really healthy this year....throw a few injuries at corner and who knows what can happen.  

Their best hope to improve rests squarely on the shoulder of Trubisky.  Only now he will have a new RT, probably.  And teams will have film of him in that offense so they can prepare for him.

Things are going to be different for them next year, for sure.

[Packer_ESP]

23 minutes ago, Pool said:

I just stuck to the meat of the trade. I probably should have included the 3rd rounder. I get that some of your posters here need to believe this trade will sink the Bears. It won't.That's reality. The Bears will be fine and the Mack trade was a huge home run for them. At this point it's abundantly clear that there's several posters here who just refuse to believe this. I'll just leave them to their delusions then and won't comment further. 

Why is the 2020 a late first rounder? Could be the 1st pick for all you know.