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Is anybody else picking the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl?


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Just now, Forge said:

or somebody who doesn't believe in small sample sizes against what has been pretty suspect defenses. He's been playing better, no doubt. He hasn't earned trust yet.  

He had a ~100+ QB rating his first 25 games in the NFL. 

He has a crap 16 game stretch. A lot of factors involved, including atrocious OL play, injured/non existent passing options.

He is now back to a ~100+ QB rating the last 7 games. 

32 of 48 games he has been a high efficiency, low turn over QB that is clutch as hell.

(also @CWood21)

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

He's 26-5 when he doesn't throw an interception.  He's 3-10 when he throws at least one interception.  He's literally the definition of a game manager.

So his record is 29-15? He is literally the definition of a winner.

#3 QB in wins the last 3 years

#1 QB in 4th qrt/overtime comebacks

(those stats are a bit old, but I think they still hold up)

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Efficiency is the #1 most important factor in a QB. He is efficient. 

QBs that throw <200 yards with no turnovers win 95% of their games against playoff teams the last 25 years. 

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Just now, Matts4313 said:

So his record is 29-15? He is literally the definition of a winner.

#3 QB in wins the last 3 years

#1 QB in 4th qrt/overtime comebacks

(those stats are a bit old, but I think they still hold up)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Efficiency is the #1 most important factor in a QB. He is efficient. 

QBs that throw <200 yards with no turnovers win 95% of their games against playoff teams the last 25 years. 

I mean, I guess if QB purgatory is your ideal scenario, sure.

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12 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

He had a ~100+ QB rating his first 25 games in the NFL. 

He has a crap 16 game stretch. A lot of factors involved, including atrocious OL play, injured/non existent passing options.

He is now back to a ~100+ QB rating the last 7 games. 

32 of 48 games he has been a high efficiency, low turn over QB that is clutch as hell.

(also @CWood21)

Sure, and like it or not, people are going to use the team he was on as a rookie, how perfect of a scenario it was, to downgrade what he did. Game manager. Protected. Yadda Yadda. Is it right or wrong? I don't know. Everyone has their own way of evaluating things. Doesn't really impact me in any way shape or form because he shouldn't be the same quarterback he was as a rookie, good or bad. What separates him now from the quarterback he was against Seattle or Houston this season? 

I think Dak is a pretty solid quarterback. Do I think he's top 10? No. He could get there.  Am I going to put a ton of weight into some games where he beat up on some light defenses and bad teams? Not really (and it should be noted. not all the defenses were "bad". The majority of them were, but certainly not all, and that bears mentioning). Requires bigger bodies of work to change opinions on someone. This is a nice 6 week stretch or whatever, no doubt. 6 weeks will not change my opinion of someone. It certainly doesn't earn them more or less trust at the current point in time. 

Lets put it this way...did you trust Alex Smith to win the super bowl last year? I'm willing to bet you didn't. Because no matter how great that season was from Smith last year, and it was pretty freaking good, it takes longer than that to trust a player like that and change opinions. The player you are describing in there - the high efficiency, low turnover? That was Smith's bread and butter. Nobody trusted him to bring home the trophy last year. 

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Just now, Classic said:

They don't have a better defense than Bears but they certainly are the 2nd best defense in the NFL. I can't have them as favorites as I simply don't trust Jason Garrett when it matters most.

Excellent point 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

Lets put it this way...did you trust Alex Smith to win the super bowl last year? I'm willing to bet you didn't. Because no matter how great that season was from Smith last year, and it was pretty freaking good, it takes longer than that to trust a player like that and change opinions. The player you are describing in there - the high efficiency, low turnover? That was Smith's bread and butter. Nobody trusted him to bring home the trophy last year. 

I absolutely thought that Smith was playing well enough to make a run. 

And I do think Smith is a fair comp for Dak.

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1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

So you didnt address anything I said and just responded with a lame response? 

Cool. 

There is a reason why the bulk stat QBs almost never win the superbowl. 

I'm not going to use some largely arbitrary stats to support my argument.

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1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

I absolutely thought that Smith was playing well enough to make a run. 

And I do think Smith is a fair comp for Dak.

And if you did, that's fine. Your line for that is obviously going to be a little bit different than mine and so and so's and so and so's. But most didn't. So I don't think that it's on Dak necessarily, I think it just takes time for true opinions to change on matters such as that (as much as NFL Gen would suggest that your opinion should change roughly every hour on the hour or so during sunday / monday / thursday). 

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6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not going to use some largely arbitrary stats to support my argument.

There is only one stat that has a significant correlation to winning in the nfl. Its ANY/A. If your ANY/A is higher than the other QBs, you win 80%+ of the time. ANY/A is a measure of efficiency. How often when your QB touches the ball, is the impact positive. 

Dak is a very efficient QB for the bulk of his career. Obviously he had a 16 game stretch that was awful, but there is a reason why Dak wins a lot. Its the same reason why Favre only won one superbowl. Or why Brady has went to 8 of them. You dont have to throw 500 yards. You have to be efficient and keep plays positive. Daks MO. 

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