Das Gute - Year 1 in Review

[Shanedorf]

2018 Season isn't over yet, but here's an in depth review from PackersNews on Year 1 of the Gute Era....comparing and contrasting his work with others

Several quotes from former GM Mark Dominik and former personnel guy, Greg Gabriel

https://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2018/12/12/inside-brian-gutekunsts-new-approach-shaping-packers-roster/2289756002/

“He’s been around a lot of really talented personnel guys,” former Tampa Bay general manager and current SiriusXM NFL analyst Mark Dominik said. “All these different dudes he’s been able to steal parts of it and now he’s trying to blend it into who he wants to be, or what he wants to be, and that can take some patience and that can also be great at the beginning.” 

 

“One of the really nice things for me this season is all these guys thinking outside the box,” Gutekunst said. “We have a lot of conversations about stuff that never happens but at the same time I really like the way they think and the way they’re trying to improve the squad.”

 

[AlexGreen#20]

Kinda hard to evaluate a guy in year 1. 

Off the top of my head, probably call it a C. 

[coachbuns]

51 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Kinda hard to evaluate a guy in year 1. 

Off the top of my head, probably call it a C. 

His first draft:   A-        Alexander, Jackson, Burks, 3 decent wide receivers, Scott PLUS  extra 1st round draft choice

Free agency:  C         Graham, Wilkerson, Williams, House

Trades:  B-                  Ha Ha Dix      Washington 4th which will be much more than the comp pick we would have gotten letting him go

                                      Montgomery    7th which was lucky to get that

Considering we need to replenish our talent base, we have some pick ammunition and free agency $$ to do so.

 

[AlexGreen#20]

53 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

His first draft:   A-        Alexander, Jackson, Burks, 3 decent wide receivers, Scott PLUS  extra 1st round draft choice

Free agency:  C         Graham, Wilkerson, Williams, House

Trades:  B-                  Ha Ha Dix      Washington 4th which will be much more than the comp pick we would have gotten letting him go

                                      Montgomery    7th which was lucky to get that

Considering we need to replenish our talent base, we have some pick ammunition and free agency $$ to do so.

 

I mean, yes, those are players we drafted. 

We got a guy that looks like he's going to be a stud corner in Alexander.

We got a late first round pick next year. 

We got a guy who's looking like Quinten Rollins in Jackson

We got a guy who isn't seeing the field to genuine scrubs like Antonio Morrison in Burks.

We get a guy who looks like he's going to be a long term piece in MVS.

We got a guy who has shown flashes in EQ.

We got a guy who has shown nothing in J'Mon Moore.

We got an average punter (so far) in Scott

We got a below average Long Snapper in Bradley

We got a lottery ticket in Donnerson.

That's a B draft in mind. Two guys looking like starters, some decent depth and an extra draft pick. 

+++

Free Agency:

Graham: i like the signing and think it will look good next year even if the numbers weren't there this year.

Wilkerson: Got hurt, but for 5 mil, was probably a good investment. Even if it bombed purely on a results basis.

Tramon: For one year and 5.5 million for a decent season at CB and Safety, that's a decent signing. just want to see him cut next year because that's not looking good at 6.5 next year when you consider the safety market.

House: Scrub even before he got hurt, but not the worst back end of the roster guy.

Breeland: Real nice pickup off the scrap heap.

Bell: i like the pickup off the scrap heap.

Lewis: Complete trash picked off the scrap heap. 

Overall I give him credit for the work and the thought process, even though it wasn't what we wanted to see in year 1.

+++

Trades:

Randall for Kizer and mid tier draft capital: Hard to like this one in hindsight if the beef was with McCarthy, then to fire McCarthy weeks later. Especially with the crap we have at Safety right now. Probably double jeoprady to hold it against him here for turning the draft capital into Cole Madison though.

HHCD for the 4th rounder: Really didn't like this one. There was nothing stopping you from playing Tramon at Safety with HHCD at the other safety. That's flawed thinking. this was a tank now move in what should have been a win now season.

Montgomery for a 7th rounder: Again, you don't get credit for giving Montgomery's snaps to Jones. You could have done that with Montgomery on the roster. Coaching staff failed Montgomery. 

Hundley for a 6th rounder: No sense in not making this trade if you have Kizer. Would have liked to have seen Hundley get a shot with a non MM offensive system though.

+++

Releases: 

Hated the Jordy move, restructure would have been much better even at the time. Obviously he would have gotten hurt, but Jordy at 5million per would have been good for this team even through 6 weeks.

Cobb: With hindsight you would have liked to have seen this cut. Obviously you didn't know Cobb would get hurt (audience scoffs) or that the rookie WRs would be this good this early.

Matthews: Good argument to be made that Clay should have been cut at the time. Just wasn't much out there to replace him. 

Perry: I still think it was the right move to keep Perry. With hindsight it probably would have made sense to injury settle with the ankle injury.

+++

Coaching:

If there were indications that Rodgers and McCarthy's relationship was toxic before the season, something should have changed. That probably would have been Murphy's call though.

Failure to mediate a cease-fire between Rodgers and McCarthy was another thing that's hard to differentiate between Gute and Murphy.

Firing McCarthy was necessary. I understand why it was done when it was, but it should have been done earlier if Rodgers and he couldn't get along. 

[HighCalebR]

@AlexGreen#20  

I agree with 99% of that but I think there's a very fair argument to be had that with Pettine in the fold the Haha move had a +50% chance of being made regardless of record. He was a tradable commodity in the system. 

I agree with Gute keeping Matthews on the premise of letting him try to make things work with the system and the fact his trade market is pretty much zero. A little little loyalty to vets doesnt hurt much. Plus the no depth behind him part. 

Alexander and MVS definitely arent enough to make this class an A. But if there's some development I could see the argument in a few years. But atm I'd probably go with the B as well.

[AlexGreen#20]

18 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

@AlexGreen#20  

I agree with 99% of that but I think there's a very fair argument to be had that with Pettine in the fold the Haha move had a +50% chance of being made regardless of record. He was a tradable commodity in the system. 

I agree with Gute keeping Matthews on the premise of letting him try to make things work with the system and the fact his trade market is pretty much zero. A little little loyalty to vets doesnt hurt much. Plus the no depth behind him part. 

Alexander and MVS definitely arent enough to make this class an A. But if there's some development I could see the argument in a few years. But atm I'd probably go with the B as well.

Disagree that in a system playing 3 Safeties a ton that it's cool to drop HaHa for [checks notes] Raven Greene.

The issue with Matthews wasn't trade value, it was pay for play. Let's be real that 12 million could have been spent better. Obviously that's hindsight but GMs get paid to forecast these things.

[FinneasGage]

like a c+, but with how he's utilized the waiver the past couple weeks i might go a b-

[MacReady]

Has anybody actually seen Das Boot?  As good as a 37 hour movie can be.  7/10.

[Gopackgonerd]

This was a total rebuild year for Gute. He traded and released a lot of players from previous drafts in the Thompson Era and threw together this team. The Randall trade probably looks worse because of how our safety position has played out, but I think they had to be banking on HaHa returning to form and just totally rebuilding a terrible CB group, and Randall just continuously gave up big plays at corner.

FA we probably shouldn't have expected much since we didn't have much cap space to work with, also with the Rodgers deal looming over their head. I think they thought they did enough getting Graham/Wilkerson/Tramon and some other Journeymen like Lewis and Bell, but in the end nothing substantially changed our team. I still think Graham isn't as terrible as people are making him out to be. Can we keep a starting caliber TE for more than 1 damn year? Gutes best work of the Offseason came in the draft with Alexander, an extra 1st round pick, a guy in Jackson whom has tons of potential if he puts it together, Burks who has tons of potential as a speedy LB, and EQ and MVS look like future starters after Cobb leaves. Nabbing Breeland was probably one of his best moves, he's showing why he was one of the best FA CBs this year when healthy. 2 Picks, 1 pick six. Not a bad little pick up that we got lucked into mid-season for getting an infection in his foot.

Was the EDGE position Gutes biggest blunder? I don't think anyone thought Perry was gonna be this bad this year, hell even Matthews. I would say now looking back he really should have got someone other than Fackrell/Gilbert backing them up. 

Finally you get to the HaHa trade, I hated it at first, it was a shock, and only for a 4th rounder? But then you saw him show us why we traded him to Washington. His trademark horrible angles  reared its ugly head in Washington. The guy just is not a good player anymore. He had the most picks for this season and still does, which is great, but he gave up a lot more plays than he made this year. Gute getting a 4th for him looks really good right now imo. It made sense in the long run. He wasn't going to resign next year anyways, so just get a mid round pick. The biggest down side obviously depth was a huge issue after he was traded. But was keeping him really gonna make a big difference for just this year the way he was playing? Tramon isn't that much of a downgrade so far. I think we got a good return in this type of deal. 

I'll give him a C, could have been a B, but the way this year went down the ****ter, it's hard to give him more than an average grade. Some of it is on Rodgers/McCarthy/Injuries. But some of the blame falls on the GM too. Imo he did fine as his first year as a GM. I think he definitely whiffed on the EDGE position, but he got us some really good pieces to work with for years to come. It definitely could have been a whole lot worse for this Rebuild type of year. 

Next year is the true test for me to see what this guy really can do. He's getting a house full of new coaches, and he's got a lot to work with the Draft/Cap Space in FA. No excuses next offseason, time to turn this team around.

 

[HighCalebR]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Disagree that in a system playing 3 Safeties a ton that it's cool to drop HaHa for [checks notes] Raven Greene.

The issue with Matthews wasn't trade value, it was pay for play. Let's be real that 12 million could have been spent better. Obviously that's hindsight but GMs get paid to forecast these things.

I don't think anyone see's HaHa as an intimidating box safety, he's not outstanding at playing man, so it's either him or Tramon up top and HaHa clearly has the better trade value. It doesn't put you in a better position this year per se but I don't think the drop off was huge with what's being asked/what HaHa was probably looking for in a payday. I guess I just find myself agreeing with the notion HaHa didn't really love being here and Pettine didn't crave keeping him. Get the rest of the year of what HaHa was offering or a 4th round pick - I'm probably taking the pick every time, doesn't mean it's full on tank mode. Lol at Raven. 

It just seems to me with the guys they've brought in since the trade they're trying to fill some pretty specific roles at safety.

Right, you either drop him or you don't. I don't think it hurts to have a little loyalty to a guy with his tenure (and an outside chance at the Hall) for a year to prove he can't make it work for the new DC, especially when there's no one in the wings. If there was an option better than Gilbert waiting I'd bet Clay would've been released.

[OneTwoSixFive]

When Gute took over there were significant problems within the team (and coaches). This is virtually always the case when a new guy takes over (otherwise why make a change). 

All things taken into account I rate his effort so far, as much better than a C. He seems to be held by some to an unrealistically high standard that is probably a fantasy land future. I'd give him a B+ for his efforts. There are still three grades above that (A-, A, A+) that allow for truly stellar performance, but I cannot be on board with the idea that his performance is merely average.

Beyond his personnel moves and involvement in changing the head coach, he is working in a very traditional franchise where it is not easy to change anything, and despite that it is clear (at least to me) a different hand is on the tiller. I'm sure some elements of Thompson are in Gute, them having worked together for a long time, but that is as it should be - you take elements from all around you and weld them into something (hopefully) stronger.

I'd like to think he can keep to that standard (a B+), but I think he will find it hard to maintain that quality going forward However, if he can regularly post B or B- grades over time, he will be a real asset to the Packers.

One thing that could be argued both ways, but that I think is a positive, are the final steps in the clearout of some top guys.  Over time there had been a bunching up of guys at the upper end of the coaching staff and front office. There had already been some front office movement away to other franchises in the past, with Schneider, MacKenzie and Dorsey, but just a little more was needed. Wolf was in an awkward position, and it was time for TT to be moved away from the GM role. Moss was an assistant head coach who wasn't. The clearout has given more room for advancement, and all organisations need that sometimes. I'm sure some of the less talented coaches will not be retained going forward, (though there are a couple I'd like them to keep). Maybe even Alex van Pelt can be re-united with Rodgers (his removal seemed to be a political effort to isolate Rodgers at that time).

Oh, and 'Das Boot' had a 2 and a half hour run time........and it was a very good film, imo.

[coachbuns]

7 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I mean, yes, those are players we drafted. 

We got a guy that looks like he's going to be a stud corner in Alexander.

We got a late first round pick next year. 

We got a guy who's looking like Quinten Rollins in Jackson

We got a guy who isn't seeing the field to genuine scrubs like Antonio Morrison in Burks.

We get a guy who looks like he's going to be a long term piece in MVS.

We got a guy who has shown flashes in EQ.

We got a guy who has shown nothing in J'Mon Moore.

We got an average punter (so far) in Scott

We got a below average Long Snapper in Bradley

We got a lottery ticket in Donnerson.

That's a B draft in mind. Two guys looking like starters, some decent depth and an extra draft pick. 

+++

Free Agency:

Graham: i like the signing and think it will look good next year even if the numbers weren't there this year.

Wilkerson: Got hurt, but for 5 mil, was probably a good investment. Even if it bombed purely on a results basis.

Tramon: For one year and 5.5 million for a decent season at CB and Safety, that's a decent signing. just want to see him cut next year because that's not looking good at 6.5 next year when you consider the safety market.

House: Scrub even before he got hurt, but not the worst back end of the roster guy.

Breeland: Real nice pickup off the scrap heap.

Bell: i like the pickup off the scrap heap.

Lewis: Complete trash picked off the scrap heap. 

Overall I give him credit for the work and the thought process, even though it wasn't what we wanted to see in year 1.

+++

Trades:

Randall for Kizer and mid tier draft capital: Hard to like this one in hindsight if the beef was with McCarthy, then to fire McCarthy weeks later. Especially with the crap we have at Safety right now. Probably double jeoprady to hold it against him here for turning the draft capital into Cole Madison though.

HHCD for the 4th rounder: Really didn't like this one. There was nothing stopping you from playing Tramon at Safety with HHCD at the other safety. That's flawed thinking. this was a tank now move in what should have been a win now season.

Montgomery for a 7th rounder: Again, you don't get credit for giving Montgomery's snaps to Jones. You could have done that with Montgomery on the roster. Coaching staff failed Montgomery. 

Hundley for a 6th rounder: No sense in not making this trade if you have Kizer. Would have liked to have seen Hundley get a shot with a non MM offensive system though.

+++

Releases: 

Hated the Jordy move, restructure would have been much better even at the time. Obviously he would have gotten hurt, but Jordy at 5million per would have been good for this team even through 6 weeks.

Cobb: With hindsight you would have liked to have seen this cut. Obviously you didn't know Cobb would get hurt (audience scoffs) or that the rookie WRs would be this good this early.

Matthews: Good argument to be made that Clay should have been cut at the time. Just wasn't much out there to replace him. 

Perry: I still think it was the right move to keep Perry. With hindsight it probably would have made sense to injury settle with the ankle injury.

+++

Coaching:

If there were indications that Rodgers and McCarthy's relationship was toxic before the season, something should have changed. That probably would have been Murphy's call though.

Failure to mediate a cease-fire between Rodgers and McCarthy was another thing that's hard to differentiate between Gute and Murphy.

Firing McCarthy was necessary. I understand why it was done when it was, but it should have been done earlier if Rodgers and he couldn't get along. 

As a follow up, Jim Owczarski from Packer News had an article in the Journal Sentinel regarding this subject.  Good article.

[AlexGreen#20]

5 hours ago, HighCalebR said:

I don't think anyone see's HaHa as an intimidating box safety, he's not outstanding at playing man, so it's either him or Tramon up top and HaHa clearly has the better trade value. It doesn't put you in a better position this year per se but I don't think the drop off was huge with what's being asked/what HaHa was probably looking for in a payday. I guess I just find myself agreeing with the notion HaHa didn't really love being here and Pettine didn't crave keeping him. Get the rest of the year of what HaHa was offering or a 4th round pick - I'm probably taking the pick every time, doesn't mean it's full on tank mode. Lol at Raven. 

It just seems to me with the guys they've brought in since the trade they're trying to fill some pretty specific roles at safety.

Right, you either drop him or you don't. I don't think it hurts to have a little loyalty to a guy with his tenure (and an outside chance at the Hall) for a year to prove he can't make it work for the new DC, especially when there's no one in the wings. If there was an option better than Gilbert waiting I'd bet Clay would've been released.

HaHa is a better man to man guy than anybody we would have at safety other than Tramon and while he may not be a big hitter, he would be the most consistent fill guy on this team right now at the safety spot. Not to say the other guys can't be better in time, but they're green in this system. 

I just think the notion of trading away the best safety on your roster to start Ibraheim Campbell and Eddie Pleasant has to be a big knock. 

As far as Clay, you knew what this D was going to be the day you hired Pettine. You knew he wasn't going to fit. Just would rather part a year early than a year late.

[Leader]

20 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

As far as Clay, you knew what this D was going to be the day you hired Pettine. You knew he wasn't going to fit. Just would rather part a year early than a year late.

I think the GBPs decided to play (and pay) out the string with CM based primarily on the lack of overall depth at the position plus his ability to provide play (and cover) at the ILB position. Should the team have been more aggressive snagging some OLB/Edge talent? Perhaps so. Which is why most folks think the position is at the top of our needs / wish list now.

[Pugger]

I suspect Ha Ha was becoming a problem in the locker room not unlike Randall and Sitton were.  Happily for us the 'Skins will end up with a poor record so our pick will be higher than we anticipated.

I don't miss Monty and if he wasn't doing what he was told then you can't have a guy like that around.  I doubt that fumble of his in LA was the first time.  You don't dump somebody for one transgression.