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Das Gute - Year 1 in Review


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1 hour ago, coachbuns said:

It's only the 2018 draft class 1st year.  Way to early to make the assumptions you have.  Not really sure what you expect in a guys 1st year as GM?  Gutey has ran circles around Ted as a whole ... free agency, drafting, trading, players off practice squads and so on.  Things are set up pretty well for next year; RELAX.        

Really disagree with this. 

I get people are pumped for the new guy, but we're a long *** way from being able to say this.

Making free agency signings and trades that hurt the long term composition of the roster isn't better than standing pat. There's a lot of pies still in the oven here.

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Really disagree with this. 

I get people are pumped for the new guy, but we're a long *** way from being able to say this.

Making free agency signings and trades that hurt the long term composition of the roster isn't better than standing pat. There's a lot of pies still in the oven here.

My bad.  Should have explained this more.  Was talking what Gutey did his 1st year compared to what Ted did his last couple years not his overall work.  

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Gute's first year will always be judged on his not doing what it takes to get Mack.

He bet on his drafting ability.  The draft is a freakin' crap shoot.  Mack was, is, and appears like he will continue to be a "Reggie White" type game changer.  His presence, intensity, and pressure would helped every other Packers defensive player.

I doubt that Gute will find us anybody who makes an impact near Mack's impact.  I hope I'm wrong, but at this time, I believe his betting on his drafting rather than Mack will turn out to be a big loss; therefore, in the future, Gute's first year will be a failure.

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34 minutes ago, Keg Man said:

Gute's first year will always be judged on his not doing what it takes to get Mack.

He bet on his drafting ability.  The draft is a freakin' crap shoot.  Mack was, is, and appears like he will continue to be a "Reggie White" type game changer.  His presence, intensity, and pressure would helped every other Packers defensive player.

I doubt that Gute will find us anybody who makes an impact near Mack's impact.  I hope I'm wrong, but at this time, I believe his betting on his drafting rather than Mack will turn out to be a big loss; therefore, in the future, Gute's first year will be a failure.

I dont agree with your premise: "Gute's first year will always be judged on his not doing what it takes to get Mack"
But if accepted, then judgement of Gute's first year will have to be held off till after the upcoming draft - in which its presumed we'll draft an OLB/Edge/DE.

An interesting question would be to identify if there's someone of Macks talents in the upcoming draft.

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1 hour ago, Keg Man said:

Gute's first year will always be judged on his not doing what it takes to get Mack.

He bet on his drafting ability.  The draft is a freakin' crap shoot.  Mack was, is, and appears like he will continue to be a "Reggie White" type game changer.  His presence, intensity, and pressure would helped every other Packers defensive player.

I doubt that Gute will find us anybody who makes an impact near Mack's impact.  I hope I'm wrong, but at this time, I believe his betting on his drafting rather than Mack will turn out to be a big loss; therefore, in the future, Gute's first year will be a failure.

I'll remind you we just signed Aaron to a massive contract.  It would have been extremely difficult to fit both under the cap.  The other problem was we couldn't match the Bears offer both in terms of compensation and draft picks.  I honestly don't know how the Packers could have both the highest paid offensive player as well as defensive player in the league.  We would have had to cut several players to make that deal work.  We probably would have had to give up both 1's this year and also next years 1.  3 first round picks and shell out 140 million.  

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1 hour ago, Keg Man said:

Gute's first year will always be judged on his not doing what it takes to get Mack.

He bet on his drafting ability.  The draft is a freakin' crap shoot.  Mack was, is, and appears like he will continue to be a "Reggie White" type game changer.  His presence, intensity, and pressure would helped every other Packers defensive player.

I doubt that Gute will find us anybody who makes an impact near Mack's impact.  I hope I'm wrong, but at this time, I believe his betting on his drafting rather than Mack will turn out to be a big loss; therefore, in the future, Gute's first year will be a failure.

That's a stretch to say he's in Reggie Whites category and Gutes 1st year is judged only on not getting Mack.   Its obvious Mack would have helped.  However, it would have taken 3 1st rounds picks plus paying him almost $25 million a year for years to get him.  I would have loved to have him on our team but that cost would have been crippling.  You don't know what Macks future will be.  Let's see how the Bears do in a year or two when they have to pay their QB and others plus have no 1st rounds picks.  Mack makes their team better no doubt but in the end it will cost them big time.

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47 minutes ago, Leader said:

I dont agree with your premise: "Gute's first year will always be judged on his not doing what it takes to get Mack"
But if accepted, then judgement of Gute's first year will have to be held off till after the upcoming draft - in which its presumed we'll draft an OLB/Edge/DE.

An interesting question would be to identify if there's someone of Macks talents in the upcoming draft.

Not only this draft but the year after as Chicago gave up 2 1st rounders AND a whole lot of cash for a long time.

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1 hour ago, Keg Man said:

Gute's first year will always be judged on his not doing what it takes to get Mack.

Wrong, just wrong. It's his body of work that will define him, but there is more than that wrong, with this assumption of failure.

Some of the muddy thinking in your premise is that to judge the deal you have to include how Mack does the next few years, how the Packers do with the picks they didn't give up for Mack, how the Bears and the Packers cap money resolves itself (specifically, the difference that is the $22m pa to Mack), and finally, how much the Bears are affected in future development by losing the high draft picks they paid for Mack (and bear in mind the Packers would have had to offer MORE to the Raiders than the Bears did, to secure him). 

All of the points I made are in the future and unknowable at this time. Your take on the implied failure (by Gute) to pay even more than the Bears did without taking ALL the factors into account is a condemnation that is delivered too early. It will take several years to work out the + and - of the deal, by which time there will be many more decisions that all contribute to Gute's legacy and this conjecture will be buried under a heap of other, more immediate things - the penalty of a thorough analysis on this, is that it takes too long to achieve, and anything less is incomplete.

One final thing that ties in with my points above, the biggest difference between a 'sure thing' elite vet and draft picks is that the elite vet is, like Mack, normally on his second contract. draft picks are on their first contract and (depending where you pick) about a 10th of Mack's contract. To me the deal was a knife-edge choice (given the cost). It would have been nice to get Mack, but I'm not bent out of shape that the Packers didn't get him.

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I would have liked to snag Mack, but it would have severely hampered us acquiring top talent the next few years .. might have been worth it, but we'll see how things look after another free agency period and draft.  If Gute has a strong offseason we might be feeling pretty good about ourselves.

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16 hours ago, coachbuns said:

It's only the 2018 draft class 1st year.  Way to early to make the assumptions you have.  Not really sure what you expect in a guys 1st year as GM?  Gutey has ran circles around Ted as a whole ... free agency, drafting, trading, players off practice squads and so on.  Things are set up pretty well for next year; RELAX.        

That's why i said "at this point".  No different than posters talking about Burks and Jackson being good picks despite their terrible play this year (very premature to just assume that).  It's not any earlier than assuming that "Gutey has ran circles around Ted as a whole" which I find to be a ridiculous statement given how awful the team has been in Gute's first season.

Yes, he's made trades but not one of those trades has helped the 2018 Packers.  The HHCD trade showed the dumpster fire we have at the safety position.  He traded a starting Safety/ CB for a terrible back up QB who had 2 awful turnovers in the only 2 drives he had this year.   

His free agent accusations weren't great either.  Wilkerson is an unknown as he got hurt.  He had both quality games and terrible Jets-esk games before his injury.  Jimmy Graham has been mediocre I suppose but he's being paid to be a lot more than just mediocre.  That's a contract that is going to kick us in the chin if we want to get out from under it this coming off season.  Like Graham's contract, Tramon WIlliams contract is terrible as well.  Bell and Breeland were picked off the NFL scrap heap and weren't bad.  

We'll have to agree to disagree that this team is heading in the right direction.  This team has looked every bit the equal to the NFL's worst teams (see the Lions, 49ers and Cardinals games for examples).  it's premature to think we're going to just snap our fingers and go from a bad 5 win team to a playoff team in an off season.  

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4 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Milt Hendrickson, who Gute tried to steal away from Baltimore earlier this year but was denied, is now set to join the Packers front office. Some welcome experience added to the scouting staff.

Sounds like he will be our assistant GM.  Also Reggie McKenzie may be in play for a role in GB on the pro scouting side.  Hendrickson is laregly a college scout.  

 

https://bobmcginnfootball.com/gutekunst-to-hire-hendrickson-to-prominent-personnel-post/

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1 minute ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Sounds like he will be our assistant GM.  Also Reggie McKenzie may be in play for a role in GB on the pro scouting side.  Hendrickson is laregly a college scout.  

It's tough to find anything on the internet to post links to but Hendrickson is known for his prowess finding offensive lineman. Can't have enough of those.

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20 hours ago, coachbuns said:

It's only the 2018 draft class 1st year.  Way to early to make the assumptions you have.  Not really sure what you expect in a guys 1st year as GM?  Gutey has ran circles around Ted as a whole ... free agency, drafting, trading, players off practice squads and so on.  Things are set up pretty well for next year; RELAX.        

Its very difficult to review ...

The facts are that when TT had a mature (so excluding his first season as a starter) Rodgers play the whole season, Packers made the play-offs every year. At this point, it looks very unlikely we will make the play-offs this year. There's a pretty good case for saying the roster Gute put together is weaker than any roster TT put together in the last 10 seasons. On the face of it, failing to make the playoffs with Rodgers playing every game suggests a very bad year indeed.

That would be extremely harsh though. Its impossible to judge a GM in their first season as you have to give some time for the moves to work out. There's a lot to be very optimistic about. But you can't say he has done a good job until you see the results on the field.

Cautiously optimistic.  I don't see how you can grade it. The performances on the field look like they are going to be a failure so I don't see how you can give anything higher than a C if you really have to give a grade but then again it could be the start of something great so who knows it could end up looking like a masterful piece of GMing a few years down the line.

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3 hours ago, SSG said:

That's why i said "at this point".  No different than posters talking about Burks and Jackson being good picks despite their terrible play this year (very premature to just assume that).  It's not any earlier than assuming that "Gutey has ran circles around Ted as a whole" which I find to be a ridiculous statement given how awful the team has been in Gute's first season.

 

Exactly ...

You can say he has run circles round TT when he has won 3 super-bowls. You can say he has matched TT when he has won a super-bowl and been perennial play-off reachers if that's a word.

Its definitely exciting to see a new approach but you have to be concerned he is trying to do too much and its causing problems on sundays. I don't see the whole 'if in doubt, kick them out' approach working particularly well long term. Hopefully after a year and he's got his guys then it might settle down a bit. You need a bit of middle ground between this and the over-loyalty shown by TT.

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