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putting great all-time QB seasons into 2018 NFL numbers


C0LTSFAN4L1F3

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So I got the idea of this thread because somebody in the MVP thread said that Mahome's current season is better than Marino's second season, claiming it was the GOAT 2nd season in the NFL. I found that to be insulting to Dan Marino. Dan Marino's 84' season is massively better than Mahome's current season.  But the person had just compared the numbers in a one-to-one comparison and clearly Mahome's numbers looked superior. Obviously, that doesn't account for the immense differences in how much easier it is to pass in today's NFL versus back then, and how immensely inflated modern NFL numbers compared to then. 

So then, what I did, in an attempt to "standardize" the numbers for this immense inflation, I applied the differences between the league's average numbers, to great QB's seasons across time. For example, the 2018 NFL compared to the 1994 NFL, has 65.1/58=12.2% higher completion percentages. And so, I applied a 12.2% boost to Steve Young's completions to put it into 2018 terms. 

Disclaimer: I understand that this isn't a perfect system. I just thought that this was interesting. 

84' Dan Marino: 417-564(73.9%) 5,501 yards, 55 Toucdowns, 10 Interceptions, 129.5 passer rating

94' Steve Young: 364-461(78.9%) 4,354 yards, 45 Touchdowns, 8 Interceptions, 131.3 passer rating

04' Peyton Manning: 366-497(73.6%) 4,826 yards, 54 Touchdowns, 7 Interceptions, 133.5 passer rating

07' Tom Brady: 423-578(73.2%) 5,210 yards, 59 Touchdowns, 6 Interceptions, 130.3 passer rating

11' Drew Brees: 507-657(77.1%) 5,662 yards, 53 Touchdowns, 12 Interceptions, 121.6 passer rating

11': Aaron Rodgers: 371-502(73.9%) 4,801 yards, 52 Touchdowns, 5 Interceptions, 133.9 passer rating

99' Kurt Warner: 371-499(74.3%) 4,836 yards, 51 Touchdowns, 9 Interceptions, 131.0 passer rating 

13' Peyton Manning: 479-659(72.7%) 5,745 yards, 61 Touchdowns, 9 Interceptions, 124.1 passer rating

89' Joe Montana: 316-386(81.8%) 3,729 yards, 32 Touchdowns, 5 Interceptions 129.2 passer rating

63' YA Tittle: 279-367(76%) 3,252 yards, 32 Touchdowns, 6 Interceptions, 124.6 passer rating
 


Obviously the older players' numbers were adjusted the most because passing numbers were the lowest then compared to the other listed seasons. But all of them, are low compared to the current season, and experienced increases in the corresponding player's numbers. 

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This thread tries to answer "how do we compare past QB play to today's QB" which would be fine, inflating stats based on bath sure yeah ok.

2013 Peyton, 2011 Rodgers, 2007 Brady, 2011 Brees, 04 Peytnon. Did not need their numbers inflated. Honestly any QB pre 1990 shouldn't have inflated stats. 

Also we can't judge Mahomes vs Marino until the season wraps, right now it's Marino but Mahomes has the potential to pass his second season.

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46 minutes ago, SwoleXmad said:

Also we can't judge Mahomes vs Marino until the season wraps, right now it's Marino but Mahomes has the potential to pass his second season.

Definitely disagree there.  Marino's 48 TDs not only came at a time when the previous record was 36, but it took until 15 years later for someone not named Dan Marino to hit 40.

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45 minutes ago, Bobikus said:

Definitely disagree there.  Marino's 48 TDs not only came at a time when the previous record was 36, but it took until 15 years later for someone not named Dan Marino to hit 40.

Fair point but if Mahomes breaks the TD record (he's on pace to with 45 and 2 games left to play) and wins a SB (or has a better performance) I'd consider it as good as Marino's 2nd season. 

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All anyone has to do is watch Montana/Marino/Elway/Johnny U play and it doesn't long to figure out those greats would have a real hard time vs todays defenses. And if ya check out their NCAA days they pale in comparison to these guys today in theirs. 

It's best to keep guys in their era vs that era's. Hell, imagine these guys today back in the 80's vs those defenses.

Put todays Patrick Mahomes back in the 80's he'd look like some alien from another planet, just like Mack, Donald, Barkley would.

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3 hours ago, SwoleXmad said:

This thread tries to answer "how do we compare past QB play to today's QB" which would be fine, inflating stats based on bath sure yeah ok.

2013 Peyton, 2011 Rodgers, 2007 Brady, 2011 Brees, 04 Peytnon. Did not need their numbers inflated. Honestly any QB pre 1990 shouldn't have inflated stats. 

Also we can't judge Mahomes vs Marino until the season wraps, right now it's Marino but Mahomes has the potential to pass his second season.

This isn't a matter of who "needs" it. The fact of the matter is that 2018 is completely unlike any other season before it, with it's passing numbers dwarfing seasons as recent as the aforementioned 2013 season. 

And this 1990 cut-off is very strange considering there wasnt really a significant difference that year nor were any real rules changed, and there really isnt that much of a difference between the 80s and 90s. 

 

Mahome's season, is not even remotely comparable to Marino's the only way Mahomes can get on that level is if he throws 5+ touchdowns in each of the last games and shatters the TD record. 

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2 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

This isn't a matter of who "needs" it. The fact of the matter is that 2018 is completely unlike any other season before it, with it's passing numbers dwarfing seasons as recent as the aforementioned 2013 season. 

And this 1990 cut-off is very strange considering there wasnt really a significant difference that year nor were any real rules changed, and there really isnt that much of a difference between the 80s and 90s. 

 

Mahome's season, is not even remotely comparable to Marino's the only way Mahomes can get on that level is if he throws 5+ touchdowns in each of the last games and shatters the TD record. 

This entire decade has been unlike any other decade for QB numbers, you don't need to adjust numbers from the same era to make a QB look better.

Fair point, really only said 1990 because ever since then the QB position has more or less been uplifted via rule changes. I'd honestly say like 2007 is when the modern era of "pass happy" QBs really took off, even then every decade is different.

Sure.

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10 hours ago, DirtyDez said:

GSOT would average 45 ppg if they wanted to.

Those teams had turnover and pass protection problems and some glaring inefficiencies, mostly because Martz refused to ever adapt his gameplans and was constantly leaving his QB hung out to dry. Defensive lines/pass rushes are way better now than they were in that era. I think it would be a wash.

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4 hours ago, LieutenantGains said:

I can only imagine what the 2007 Patriots would do this year

The Pats are the only offense that had a larger scoring margain between the next best offense at nearly 7 ppg (during that era).  If the GSOT decides to run up the score like NE (maybe they did I can’t remember) I believe they’d easily average that much.  In 2000 they averaged over 36 ppg in the games Warner played.  The league average was just over 20 ppg.  This year it’s 24 ppg.

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9 hours ago, SwoleXmad said:

This entire decade has been unlike any other decade for QB numbers, you don't need to adjust numbers from the same era to make a QB look better.

Fair point, really only said 1990 because ever since then the QB position has more or less been uplifted via rule changes. I'd honestly say like 2007 is when the modern era of "pass happy" QBs really took off, even then every decade is different.

Sure.

It's not really "the same era" in the conventional sense if the numbers are completely different. And it is all relative. If the "entire decade" has been on another level, then all that matters is that 2018 is on another level from any of those previous seasons. The difference between the league averages in 11' and 13' and now is gigantic compared to 18', and that is illustrated in the couple seasons I showed. 

If you are going to bring up rules uplifting QB's, then 90' is a terrible example because no significant rule changes were made then, and the early 2000's were played basically identically to the 90's. It wasn't until 04' that things started to take off because of those rule changes. 

It's true. Marino was on a completely different level from anyone else that year, and he broke the TD record by a margin of TWELVE. Mahomes is having the best season this year, but other players are pretty close, he isnt really blowing everybody out of the water like Marino did. It isn't really historically great either when you take into account the insane boost across the league in 2018. 

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50 minutes ago, DirtyDez said:

The Pats are the only offense that had a larger scoring margain between the next best offense at nearly 7 ppg (during that era).  If the GSOT decides to run up the score like NE (maybe they did I can’t remember) I believe they’d easily average that much.  In 2000 they averaged over 36 ppg in the games Warner played.  The league average was just over 20 ppg.  This year it’s 24 ppg.

and yet the most famous iteration of the GSOT didnt even score 30 PPG. 28.1 PPG is nothing to brag about historically. The other GSOT team that made it to the SB scored only 29.1 PPG. Also nothing historically any good. The 00' team only has a fraction of the season where they had their QB, so the sample size is small. And in the 11 games Warner DID play, he threw 18 interceptions. The last time I checked, a great offense is supposed to take care of the ball. 

GSOT is overrated as hell. 

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On 12/15/2018 at 10:02 PM, ZenoRazon said:

All anyone has to do is watch Montana/Marino/Elway/Johnny U play and it doesn't long to figure out those greats would have a real hard time vs todays defenses. And if ya check out their NCAA days they pale in comparison to these guys today in theirs. 

It's best to keep guys in their era vs that era's. Hell, imagine these guys today back in the 80's vs those defenses.

Put todays Patrick Mahomes back in the 80's he'd look like some alien from another planet, just like Mack, Donald, Barkley would.

Except for that if Mahomes played in the 60s, he'd be clothlined by Deacon Jones and would at some point suffer a injury. You aren't taking into account how badly the game was in the trenches and how little time QBs had to throw. 

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