What do you think of the five first round rookie QBs so far?

[Thomas5737]

24 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

It's absolutely fair to say DEN's D plays better at home.   And that pass rush with Jeff Holland as the 3rd EDGE was more effective than Shane Ray's been.  And DE's Gotsis and Wolfe did get inside pressure as well.  So there's some context for sure.

But I will say Baker just wasn't good yesterday.  He made 3-4 horrific reads (the Landry INT was the worst, but a couple of other times he had open guys 7-8 yards and easy 1sts, and he tried for the 20+ yard flag route and missed badly) and about 3-4 other throws where he wasn't close when there wasn't a lot of pressure.  So yeah, he was very meh yesterday.   We should recognize that some of Baker's success has come because the D's he's faced have been really, really bad.   Add in good OL play, great OC calling by Kitchens, and a talented cast, it certainly has helped Baker's skills play up, perhaps more than on his own.

But on the flip side - guys are going to have bad days.  It happens.   Baker was just bad against HOU and DEN.  But just like you don't project a guy's best game as his season long expectation x 16, you don't take his worst game and draw firm conclusions, either.   And it's especially more likely to see struggles when a young QB goes into a tough road environment.  @HOU, @DEN - it's not really an indictment on the player's future.   I mean, sure, it means Baker's not elite right now - but he never should have been crowned this early and vs. that schedule regardless.    The thing is, all those things that kind of make Baker's #'s play up more than his skills - other than the opposition, well they're here to stay.   The OL, weapons, hopefully OC Kitchens - so it's not like they are going away.   It does mean maybe by himself, on his own, Mayfield's not quite at the same level as some would predict based on the #'s since Kitchens took over as OC - but it does still likely predict success for him.  It just may not be all due to his abilities, but the cast/environment around him.  Even so, it still counts in the boxscores the same no matter what.

He has been throwing into tight windows against pretty much every defense. Callaway is our only receiver who has the speed to get separation on the outside. He was off against Denver, it happened I hope his previous 11 games are a better indication of who he is than that game. He also, in my opinion, throws into too many tight windows. I suppose if you have success it is better than waiting and taking a sack.

The offense was pretty vanilla too. The pace was slower than Baker likes, he needs to get in a rhythm. At the end of the day he just wasn't his normal self most of the time. Maybe it's the Denver curse. At least we broke the 28 year winless drought to the Broncos.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

9 hours ago, braylon said:

What is Baker's major flaw? Can’t be accuracy, poise, or injuries, so it must fall somewhere under the “whatever” category.......

Accuracy and poise, at least from watching the Ravens/Browns game earlier and the Browns game last night.

[Malik]

Baker has easily been the best rookie QB. I wish people would stop bringing up QBs from 15-20 years ago that struggled. Passing in today's NFL is MUCH easier than it was back in 1998. Expecting rookies to play decent now isn't out of line. There's a reason most of the best rookie QB seasons of all time have come within the last decade.

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

He has been throwing into tight windows against pretty much every defense. Callaway is our only receiver who has the speed to get separation on the outside. He was off against Denver, it happened I hope his previous 11 games are a better indication of who he is than that game. He also, in my opinion, throws into too many tight windows. I suppose if you have success it is better than waiting and taking a sack.

The offense was pretty vanilla too. The pace was slower than Baker likes, he needs to get in a rhythm. At the end of the day he just wasn't his normal self most of the time. Maybe it's the Denver curse. At least we broke the 28 year winless drought to the Broncos.

I do think you need to be using Callaway more - that taunting call was pretty weak.  I was really blown away when Williams benched him for the rest of the series, and then started spotting him in and out of the lineup for the rest of the game.    He was open 2-3x in crossing routes and 2-3x more in the flats when Baker decided to go for deeper throws (and missed) for easy first downs.  And early 1Q he had guys beat on 3rd down only to have Baker sail the throw.    I mean, Williams himself is an incredibly vocal and demonstrative guy - to pull Callaway in a tight game for more than a few plays, well, I'm glad it didn't bite them in the ***.   

If Callaway can keep his head straight and out of weed-related trouble this offseason, you've really got something special there.  It's why I think Baker's chances of success are so good even with the flaws we've seen - because his strengths and the cast/environment more than make up for the flaws.

Back to Baker - if you only watched his HOU & DEN games, you'd never imagine how accurate he can be.  But you watch his other games especially against those weak pass D's, you see it easily.   So as usual, the truth lies somewhere in between - probably not an accuracy machine, but overall it's certainly a strength.   Just that it can get away from him.  That's true for a lot of good QB's.

P.S.  I love what Kitchens has done mostly, but in the pass game, needs to use more Njoku as well.  Dude's a beast and a mismatch.  Use him more and profit accordingly.

[candyman93]

@Broncofan David Njoku has the dropsies, it’s why Baker doesn’t target him a lot. He will make incredible plays, but drop stupid easy ones.

[43M]

Baker's been the best obviously.  I think he will continue being successful.  Still,  for the millionth time,  I'm not going to judge him or any of the rookies based on their first season.   My overall feelings on them are still the same as they were before the season. 

Mayfield -  Solid to great potential

Darnold -  Average to good

Rosen -  Average to elite

Jackson - below average to good

Allen -  Bust to average at best

I know they are pretty broad,  but that's merely their ranges as I see them,  and nothing has changed my mind yet.   The only thing I'm convinced of is that Allen will be a bust. I was convinced of that before the draft. 

[candyman93]

Allen can succeed, but he needs the most help around him out of the other QBs.

[43M]

2 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Allen can succeed, but he needs the most help around him out of the other QBs.

I think his ceiling is Flacco...but I'm thinking more along the lines of Blaine Gabbert. 

[DawgX]

40 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Accuracy and poise, at least from watching the Ravens/Browns game earlier and the Browns game last night.

Ha, his accuracy is arguably his biggest strength. And I guess it depends on what you mean by poise. The dude doesn't get phased too easily. And, prior to the Broncos game at least, I believe he had the fifth best QB rating when under pressure.

Right now I'd say his biggest weakness is that he sometimes tries to hit a homerun instead of taking what the defense is giving him. That was very evident last night. There's been times in past games where he passed on the easier play to hit the big play and it worked, but last night it didn't as his accuracy/ball placement was just off for whatever reason. Another weakness in his game is that there's been numerous times where he could have gotten positive yardage if he just tucked the ball and ran, but he wouldn't do so.

His two worst games were against Houston and Denver. He had a disastrous first half vs. Houston, but played really well in the second half. We just couldn't mount a comeback because we kept shooting ourselves in the foot with dumb mistakes. In the second half last night, he certainly didn't light it up but he did a better job of just taking what the defense was giving him and completing easy passes.

[Tugboat]

I'd say they've all been more or less as i'd have expected.

 

Mayfield has looked like he could be at least a solid starting QB, brought a lot of energy and swagger to the Browns, but still has plenty of refinement to be done and a bit of that gunslinger live by the sword/die by the sword craving for the big play.

 

Darnold has shown a lot of the same issues that lowered my opinion of him coming out.  Not surprising, as you don't just reinvent a throwing motion over an offseason.  Especially a busy pre-draft process offseason.  Probably never fix that, and the ball security issues that come along with that combined with his propensity to try to do too much.  Him continuing to turn the ball over a ton is not at all surprising, when you take the same turnover machine NCAA QB and put them straight into a much harder NFL game where the pace ramps up and margin for error shrinks significantly.  Doesn't have a very good situation with real weapons around him, which could be a bit of an excuse.  Maybe with better weapons, he can do enough to offset the turnovers...and maybe he can eventually shave the number of turnovers down a bit.  But unsurprisingly for a very young rookie QB...the same warning flags are still flying as there were coming out of college.  Still think he's got too many Bortles-esque qualities, and haven't really seen anything this year to dispel that.  But it is still just 1 year.

 

Allen has shown a lot of the same tantalizing flashes of upside from college ball.  Ability to threaten the entire field at all times with that arm, escapability, etc.  But a bit of the same lacking finesse/accuracy at times too.  I think some people have been surprised by his athleticism in all the running ability he's displayed, but i'd argue that shouldn't be surprising to people who really watched his college tape.  He was never this ponderous Lynch/Hackenberg type prospect like a lot of people wanted to paint him as.  He's got exceptional physical tools with not just that all-world arm, but in his deceptive quickness and elusiveness for such a big man too.  I've seen enough to think that while he may always have some frustrating aspects to his game, he can be a good or better NFL starter with some actual weapons around him.  His surrounding cast is pathetic, and he's still been finding ways to show flashes of bigtime potential.  He's shown that those rare tools can translate to the next level.  That's encouraging imo, and pretty much on par with reasonable expectations for a raw toolsy QB starting as a rookie in a cruddy situation.

 

Rosen is the one that's actually surprised me.  I really thought he'd be among the quickest to find some footing in the NFL as a pocket passer.  I haven't seen as much of him as the others, but what i have...he's looked way in over his head.  In his defense, i think one of the biggest knocks for him coming out was that he'd probably need a very good offensive line in front of him to thrive, and he hasn't exactly had that.  So if they can eventually shore that OLine up, maybe he can still find his way...but what i've seen of him this year hasn't looked promising.  Especially not compared to my expectation that he'd be one of the quicker QBs to find his stride as a decent NFL passer.

 

Jackson has looked pretty much bang on what i thought he'd be able to do in terms of early impact as a running QB.  It's the "Kaepernick effect" where QBs who can run like that, can find early success leveraged on their legs simplifying the game for them as a passer.  I don't think it's sustainable long-term, and jury is still completely out on whether he can be a long-term answer at QB...but in the meantime, you're going to get value out of that rookie deal QB, as long as you can keep him healthy.  He's never going to be more athletic or more of a threat as a runner than he is today, so whether he can be a long-term installment or not...is going to come down to whether he can develop into a capable NFL passer or not.  At a rate that exceeds the decay on his athletic ability, and quickly enough to be able to function when teams come in next season with lots of tape and gameplans that will aim to take away as much of that running dimension as they can.  But right now, he's looked pretty much exactly as i'd have expected.  Terrific, dynamic running threat...who at least has enough quarterbacking talent to make a handful of certain types of throws when his legs simplify the game enough for him to get the right matchups and opportunities.

 

 

I mean, ultimately...rookie QBs coming in to their 1st year are coming off a short/busy offseason, so you're largely just getting that college QB plugged into a far more difficult level of competition and complexity.  Struggles and inconsistency aren't surprising, and should pretty much be the expectation in most cases.  Which guys can build on what they've done and the taste of the NFL they've got, over the offseason and come back having taken big strides for their sophomore season...that can be really telling imo.  That's where i think expectations can start to really ratchet up.

[Vladimir L]

he will have a 24 to 26 td year with 12 to 13 int 3600 to 3700 yards

 

rookie year this isnt bad

if he had this coaching staff since the start prob would have a 30 td year 10 int and 4000 yards

 

 

[The BILLievers]

5 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

Baker's been the best obviously.  I think he will continue being successful.  Still,  for the millionth time,  I'm not going to judge him or any of the rookies based on their first season.   My overall feelings on them are still the same as they were before the season. 

Mayfield -  Solid to great potential

Darnold -  Average to good

Rosen -  Average to elite

Jackson - below average to good

Allen -  Bust to average at best

I know they are pretty broad,  but that's merely their ranges as I see them,  and nothing has changed my mind yet.   The only thing I'm convinced of is that Allen will be a bust. I was convinced of that before the draft. 

LOL what a bad hill to stay on. 

Allen has looked much better than Rosen and Lamar Jackson as a rookie. Rosen looks like bustiest out of everyone, looks terrible. 

Allen was the 1st QB to ever pass for 200+ yards and 100+ rush yards in consecutive games. Today he put up 200+ yards passing with a passing TD and rushing TD and no turnovers. .500 record as the starter  

He looks like a rookie but he has the worst WR core in the NFL, worst OL in the NFL and zero running game. His WRs have the worst drop rate in the NFL  

You saying Rosen can be elite and Allen average at best is laugh out loud funny. You clearly don’t watch any bills games and just look at box scores. Josh Allen oozes with potential but you’ll eventually see

[43M]

1 minute ago, The BILLievers said:

LOL what a bad hill to stay on. 

Allen has looked much better than Rosen and Lamar Jackson as a rookie. Rosen looks like bustiest out of everyone, looks terrible. 

Allen was the 1st QB to ever pass for 200+ yards and 100+ rush yards in consecutive games. Today he put up 200+ yards passing with a passing TD and rushing TD and no turnovers. .500 record as the starter  

He looks like a rookie but he has the worst WR core in the NFL, worst OL in the NFL and zero running game. His WRs have the worst drop rate in the NFL  

You saying Rosen can be elite and Allen average at best is laugh out loud funny. You clearly don’t watch any bills games and just look at box scores. Josh Allen oozes with potential but you’ll eventually see

Its an opinion.   Deal with it.    Nothing you said proves me remotely wrong....just as nothing I said proves me right.   Those were my assessments of them coming out.

I never liked Allen and nothing Ive seen from him THIS year has convinced me otherwise.   Not saying he has never shown anything good at all, but I still think he will be a bust .   Or Allen could be better than Rosen....I dont judge players solely off their rookie years.  

[ET80]

13 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

worst OL in the NFL

Oh, no he doesn't.

[DirtyDez]

I never thought JR would lose his confidence but he’s looking like Jake at the end when he started hating football.  Maybe he’ll flip off the fans next week stay tuned.