BDL 2018 Quarterfinals: #8 Long Beach Leprechauns @ #1 Orlando Ospreys

[Scoundrel]

12 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

I like LB's creativity by trying to mask the lack of talent at receiver by putting Kittle out wide, but just like putting a TE at tackle, he's out of position.  There is a reason why he's a TE and not a WR.  He might have size but when you consider the speed and vertical abilities of a corner.  Some of the heaviest receivers in this league are 20 lbs light of where Kittle weighs in at.

 

It’s much more realistic to play him at WR than a TE at T come on. You don’t need to do this you are going to win.

[Scoundrel]

I even mentioned on some plays Kittle will play the slot which he does a lot in SF 

[pheltzbahr]

Great match up, nice job on the write ups from both.  Good originality from Counselor without going overboard, solid foresight from nymike on the DLine injury situation. 

Spots where I see advantages are Nuke, even with help, and McCaffrey on the same field, someone is going to have a big game.  Other advantage is Rivers not feeling a ton of pressure, allowing him to find the open receiver, which I think could be Kamara often.

Great game, but I think Rivers has time to make more plays.

[ny92mike]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

It’s much more realistic to play him at WR than a TE at T come on. You don’t need to do this you are going to win.

Really...come on man we are talking 250+ lbs out wide.

Apparently I do as it seems to be getting overlooked.  Not being an *** man.  Youre boosting your players too.

[MD4L]

I can’t believe Alexander is covering Nuk Hopkins. Ramsey tasked to cover Humpries is hard to accept in a winning game plan. The reality is a not healthy Aaron Rodgers leading this Long Beach is hard to see them beating Orlando’s juggernaut on both sides. That being said if Orlando has a weakness they’re good for questionable coaching on a weekly basis. Top seed for a reason. 

[ny92mike]

35 minutes ago, MD4L said:

I can’t believe Alexander is covering Nuk Hopkins. Ramsey tasked to cover Humpries is hard to accept in a winning game plan. The reality is a not healthy Aaron Rodgers leading this Long Beach is hard to see them beating Orlando’s juggernaut on both sides. That being said if Orlando has a weakness they’re good for questionable coaching on a weekly basis. Top seed for a reason. 

Okay man.  Jaire is playing great ball and with safety help over the top should be enough youd think.  Whats the match up on mike Evans look like to you?

[MD4L]

19 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

Okay man.  Jaire is playing great ball and with safety help over the top should be enough youd think.  Whats the match up on mike Evans look like to you?

Jaire is solid but I trust Jalen’s three years of production at CB more than the former. Plus utilizing him on a short slot guy is the sort of move you can lolygag with when you have such a surplus of talent.

All of Rivers matchups works in his favor. Evans is part of that. Even Baker on Gronk is a mismatch for a couple reasons. Plus all in single coverage against a hot QB, and it seems like an Aaron Rodgers playoff game against San Fran in 2013 or Atlanta in 2016 more than his pill swallowing playoff losses (Arizona in 09&15, Seattle in 14)

[ny92mike]

39 minutes ago, MD4L said:

Jaire is solid but I trust Jalen’s three years of production at CB more than the former. Plus utilizing him on a short slot guy is the sort of move you can lolygag with when you have such a surplus of talent.

All of Rivers matchups works in his favor. Evans is part of that. Even Baker on Gronk is a mismatch for a couple reasons. Plus all in single coverage against a hot QB, and it seems like an Aaron Rodgers playoff game against San Fran in 2013 or Atlanta in 2016 more than his pill swallowing playoff losses (Arizona in 09&15, Seattle in 14)

I hear ya but jaire has played exceptionally well for a rookie.  Hes also one of those players that I scouted early on believing he would be a great one.  

Also, Ramsey was pretty flat early this season.  Hes playing much better now but it was something I factored into my gameplan.

[Xmad]

I like Long Beach here, sadly they're just outclassed against Orlando's offense. 

Long Beach puts up a good fight and a hell of a gameplan from counselor, I like Kittle going to WR as he's a mismatch on the outside and in the slot. But it's still not enough with Rodgers not being at max Rodg, Hopkins+Kittle make a lot of plays to keep this one within one score but Orlando just holds on.

[Whicker]

I definitely would have liked to see Gronk in single coverage and Kamara doubled. Gronk is now a bad player who doesn't even want to play football anymore. He's putting up close to a zero this game regardless of who's on him.

No idea who "Smith" is and why he's being covered by Jayon Brown. It's mostly moot though because LB will be in nickel a lot.

Really really don't like blitzing and zone coverage. Zone coverage basically requires 7 in coverage to be worth anything. "Zone blitzes" aren't actually blitzes. They bring a linebacker and drop a linemen back in the vacated area.

Orlando was way too hedgy in their gameplan, especially when it came to running the ball. Long Beach's defensive interior isn't even close to what Counselor thinks it is and you've got a decent interior line and one elite back and one top back. Shove it down their throats.

I like Kittle at WR but as a complement to good weapons, not as attempting to mask the deficiency. I would much rather see him in the slot more often than the reverse.

Mike Evans wins. Allen Robinson wins. Kamara wins.

DeAndre is elite enough to beat double coverage and he'll definitely beat Jaire on underneath routes.

Orlando made a pretty big mistake IMO in putting his inside linebackers in zone coverage. Especially with Long Beach wanting to attack deeper, you're basically making your linebackers split the field in half and play like safeties would in a Cover-2. Safeties can't even cover that much ground. McCaffrey would run absolutely wild.

I think Kittle beats Eddie Jackson although that's kind of a strange matchup to evaluate out wide.

Orlando not planning for 2 RB sets is a mistake as well. This is especially true with their hybrid man/zone coverage.

Orlando has the superior QB play and has homefield advantage.

Long Beach's O-line has a weakness at LG and RT. Average C and RG. Top level LT.

Orlando's O-line has a weakness at LG and C. Average LT. Top level RG and RT.

Both D-lines are similar. One elite edge. One good edge. Okay interiors. I give advantage LB with Clark missing.

 

Tough game. I don't like either player's gameplan much at all and the talent level is close with all the injuries.

McCaffrey is a better version of Kamara and has a much better matchup in this one. Neither player really mentioned the 2nd RB for their opponent which IMO is an important piece to both their offenses. I love Chris Carson and I think he finds success. Mark Ingram though would at the very least open things up a ton for McCaffrey with the linebackers not playing either tight. I think Rodgers and Hopkins connect for some highlight plays but it's overall not a game defining game from Hopkins. Kittle makes plays, especially when he's lined up in the slot. The rest of Long Beach's offense struggles.

On the other side, Kamara does fine but like Hopkins he doesn't take over the game. Chris Carson has an efficient game and fans cry for him to get more carries a la Aaron Jones. Mike Evans has a big game. Robinson has a good game.

 

I'm going to go Orlando. Barely. McCaffrey IMO would just be bananas in this game as there will be times he's just not covered. Mike Evans, Kamara, and Robinson all win, however, and alongside elite QB play is enough to compensate at home where the crowd will help dictate the flow and momentum of the game.

[WFLukic]

I like Orlando here. I think this is one of those games that often happens IRL where you have a higher seed go into it as a huge favourite, but it being playoff football after all it ends up a really close match. I think even without OBJ, there's definitely a lot on the offensive side of the ball to like and Gronk, even if a shell of his former shelf, is still a top 5 TE we're talking about here, to go along with a strong OL and more than capable receiver group. 

Defensively, I would like a stronger secondary for Long Beach but the defensive front I think can hold up decently. I also think that Orlando's defensive front, particularly less Clark isn't as impsoing as it was and may have difficulties containing a very talented Long Beach offense. 

But as I said, I think Orlando just does enough - they're a little bit better all over the field and with home advantage and Rivers playing incredible football, it's tough to look past them. 

[Hockey5djh]

I really wish LB just tried to run over them. While the injury to Kenny Clark was accounted for by Mike I think that a line of Bailey - Suh - Anderson is SUPER underwhelming and keeping the Orlando off the field would have been a huge benefit to try and steal this one. Unfortunately they didn't and Orlando is just too talented.