Let the Offseason Begin

[AKRNA]

23 minutes ago, Royal_VT said:

Okay yeah I guess I was exaggerating when I said he would need to be a top 3 TE right off the bat, but you are telling me he is going to be a top 3 TE within 3 years? Because the difference between the 5th best TE in the league (without looking at names) and the 15th best TE isn't that much - you are really only getting an advantage with the truly elite guys. 

Actually he'll be a top 3 "in-line" TE immediately. He's the best blocking and most complete TE thats come out of college for a long time. He's a real throwback.

Very good receiver also and punishing when he gets the ball. 

Our new OC runs an offense that benefits greatly from a good TE and Hockenson can be a great one.

[jsthomp2007]

17 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Actually he'll be a top 3 "in-line" TE immediately. He's the best blocking and most complete TE thats come out of college for a long time. He's a real throwback.

Very good receiver also and punishing when he gets the ball. 

Our new OC runs an offense that benefits greatly from a good TE and Hockenson can be a great one.

Especially since his sex change operation, he has become even better.  

[germ-x]

6 hours ago, Royal_VT said:

Am I the only one that does not want Hockenson at 10? Have seen his name floated around quite a bit, but I am not finding the appeal. Unless he is going to be a top 3 TE right off the bat I just have a hard time seeing the value.

 

Someone help me believe, so I am not pissed off if he is the pick lol.

I wouldn’t say I don’t want him because I think he’ll be a hell of a player for a long time, but I also get the reservations with taking him at #10.  

My biggest issue with him is that I don’t know that he is ever a dynamic threat as a receiver in the way that some of these TEs nowadays go off.  I don’t know that he’s a 75-90 catch guy with 1,000 yards and double digit TDs, I could see him being more of a 50-60 catch guy with 700-800 yards and 5-8 TDs.  That’s still a very reliable TE, but he’ll also be making a mark outside the stat sheet in his blocking ability and would still command respect in the receiving game as he’d be capable of hurting opposing teams if they didn’t.

As I said, I am fine with him at #10 catching 50 balls a year because he really is that special of a blocker.  I’ve seen comparisons to Kecle and others, but I think the best one is Todd Heap, both are almost identical physically with Hockenson being a bit more explosive.

[AKRNA]

2 hours ago, germ-x said:

I wouldn’t say I don’t want him because I think he’ll be a hell of a player for a long time, but I also get the reservations with taking him at #10.  

My biggest issue with him is that I don’t know that he is ever a dynamic threat as a receiver in the way that some of these TEs nowadays go off.  I don’t know that he’s a 75-90 catch guy with 1,000 yards and double digit TDs, I could see him being more of a 50-60 catch guy with 700-800 yards and 5-8 TDs.  That’s still a very reliable TE, but he’ll also be making a mark outside the stat sheet in his blocking ability and would still command respect in the receiving game as he’d be capable of hurting opposing teams if they didn’t.

As I said, I am fine with him at #10 catching 50 balls a year because he really is that special of a blocker.  I’ve seen comparisons to Kecle and others, but I think the best one is Todd Heap, both are almost identical physically with Hockenson being a bit more explosive.

What you said!

I'd also be pleased with Bush there , maybe OL, DB or DT at that spot. A good argument can be made for any of those positions. It'd be a lot harder to justify WR, OLB, RB or QB at 10. 

Both sides of the LOS need more talent and right now I just haven't got a clue which way they'll go or what they know about our roster that we don't. I guess we'll have a pretty good idea this week.

[Broncofan]

Btw at today’s presser Elway noted he’ll start extension talks with Harris Jr. after the draft - but made a point to emphasize it was only talk - and acknowledged it might not happen.  None of the usual niceties you usually hear - doesn’t mean it’s not happening but it definitely sets up the idea early that an extension doesn’t happen.    

 

https://www.9news.com/article/news/trouble-elway-sends-not-so-subtle-message-to-chris-harris-jr/73-402d3a3b-e4b1-4a43-8165-aaa86c23a9d4

 

I suspect an in-season extension is more likely if Elway thinks the team is actually close to contention - but like with DT if we struggle next year leveraging him for a rebuild in-season at the trade deadline is a possibility.   Obviously the draft could give some clues too.   Callahan is the only new guy who’s young (Jackson is a true stopgap at 30+) so it’s really only him and Yiadok as assets they are counting on long term at CB (the AAF guy is a nice flier but can’t be sure that’s legit yet).   Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.  

Edited April 23, 2019 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

On 4/22/2019 at 10:13 AM, Royal_VT said:

Am I the only one that does not want Hockenson at 10? Have seen his name floated around quite a bit, but I am not finding the appeal. Unless he is going to be a top 3 TE right off the bat I just have a hard time seeing the value.

 

Someone help me believe, so I am not pissed off if he is the pick lol.

So last year I was pumping Nelson as the best OG I'd seen coming out of college. I was disappointed we didn't draft him. By the end of the year he was the best OG in the NFL.

Anyway, thats how I feel about Hockenson. I've never seen a TE that good in all phases coming out of college, ever. IMO he's the best offensive player in the draft. Unbelievable blocker, really nasty like to fight guy, seems to really like it and handles DE's that outweigh him 40 lbs with ease. Same with OLB's, he rag dolls 'em. 

Has great hands and hell on wheels when he's got the ball. I'll let someone else talk about his abilities as a receiver, kinda out of my wheelhouse.

I can't imagine one offensive player in college that could have a more positive, immediate impact than this kid in Scangarello's offense. I'd expect him to be a perrenial pro bowler but I'm not sure how much weight the blocking aspect has on voting. 

Anyway, just my 2 cents. Kinda like having an extra OT/WR on the field in one guy.

[RaidersAreOne]

Edited April 24, 2019 by RaidersAreOne

[Broncofan]

To expand on this....

Only one thought I have on this so far...

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So we all have the #'s - while this is obviously ominous long-term - Elway still controls the cards here for 2019-20, so any trade request shouldn't be seen as pressure to sell low.

Harris is due 8.8M - but we've already paid out almost 1M of that in bonuses.  The franchise tag isn't likely to change at 13.5M much for 2020.  So a team is roughly getting Harris for 2 years and 22M worst-case if a trade is explored - and we can always convert more 2019 salary to a bonus and take on more cap hit if that's an issue for the team acquiring him - but they are getting 2 years at below market value guaranteed.   So if a trade is explored, we should look for top shutdown CB value (which IMO is a 2020 1st as the floor).   Anything else, and Elway should wait it out - this isn't a great shutdown CB class draft-wise, and rookies take time - so Harris immediately becomes far and away the best CB available - and value priced (Patrick Peterson being actively shopped would put a fly in that ointment, though).

Add it all up, Elway shouldn't feel like he's cornered - but obviously, this could change our draft priorities to spend 1 of our first 3 picks on a future replacement.

Honestly, I have nothing but love for Harris Jr., but if we aren't a legit contender until 2020/21, and he's adamant here, as long as we get top value, then it's the right move to make.  15M AAV and multiple guaranteed years where we are, is just not a good idea.  Yes, it means we have to find another CB - but we can't pay multiple guys at the top wage scale and still have so many holes on our roster.  That's why hitting the next 2 drafts is so key for return to sustained contention.

Going to fascinating to see how this unfolds.

[germ-x]

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

To expand on this....

Only one thought I have on this so far...

 

I fully understand Harris’ stance.  He’s probably the most underrated CB in football and has numerous years of top 5 grades by PFF, last year he was their #3 graded CB and many of these agents use the PFF grades as leverage.  

Harris will be 30 and many CBs, similar to RBs, see a drop in production after 30, however, in Harris’ case he brings a ton of versatility, much like Kareem Jackson and it wouldn’t surprise me at all that Harris has taken this stance with the organization after seeing them pay Jackson $11M a year.  Harris has experience as an outside CB, nickel CB, and a bit at safety.  He isn’t as good vs the run or as violent a tackler as Jackson, but Harris is a sure tackler and no slouch when it comes to run support or getting a player to the ground, while is is also far better in coverage than Jackson.

Honestly, Harris is probably worth the money when factoring in the versatility as long as it isn’t tied to a 5 year contract (though maybe you make that move and spread some of the money out) 3 years $45M makes sense. Even if his production drops as an outside CB as long as he’s healthy he’s arguably the best nickel in the NFL and also mixes it up in the run game.

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I fully understand Harris’ stance.  He’s probably the most underrated CB in football and has numerous years of top 5 grades by PFF, last year he was their #3 graded CB and many of these agents use the PFF grades as leverage.  

Harris will be 30 and many CBs, similar to RBs, see a drop in production after 30, however, in Harris’ case he brings a ton of versatility, much like Kareem Jackson and it wouldn’t surprise me at all that Harris has taken this stance with the organization after seeing them pay Jackson $11M a year.  Harris has experience as an outside CB, nickel CB, and a bit at safety.  He isn’t as good vs the run or as violent a tackler as Jackson, but Harris is a sure tackler and no slouch when it comes to run support or getting a player to the ground, while is is also far better in coverage than Jackson.

Honestly, Harris is probably worth the money when factoring in the versatility as long as it isn’t tied to a 5 year contract (though maybe you make that move and spread some of the money out) 3 years $45M makes sense. Even if his production drops as an outside CB as long as he’s healthy he’s arguably the best nickel in the NFL and also mixes it up in the run game.

I don't blame Harris Jr. one bit.  Agree on all you say.

The problem is that outlay of $ likely happens while we're still not a legit contender.  That's the problematic part (along with how many years we might be committing to - decline from 2020 on becomes a greater risk).  Why if we can get full value, we have to consider trading him.  But we shouldn't feel compelled to sell low on him, either.   The trade deadline won't likely have CB's with his skill set and so his trade value will remain stable even if Elway waits, unless there's an unfortunate injury (decline is possible, but so unlikely given we've not seen any signs yet - 2020+ is another story, but 2019 seems very safe).

The timing of 2 days pre-draft isn't ideal - that's where Elway shouldn't feel pressured to trade him...unless the offer is so good it would be justified if it were on the table 1 month ago (or a year from now, just before the draft).  The cheap 2019 contract and affordable franchise tag gives DEN enough leverage in future value for any potential trade partner (2 years, 22M is a bargain for a top CB before you add his versatility), this shouldn't be a forced sell-off like we've seen in other situations on other teams.

Either way, though, no doubt it's going to be an interesting 2 days - if nothing else, the CB priority draft-wise might very well change (IMO it should have been a top 3 need regardless, because the draft beyond Rd1 you really shouldn't count on 2019 impact, and after 2019 is done, we only had 2 young CB's in the fold with Callahan/Yiadom that we could likely count on to be in the top 4 rotation, but this will no doubt magnify that need).

Edited April 24, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Keep in mind that while his opinion/evaluation pieces are awful, we all know Klis is plugged into the FO, so this is certainly very telling...

Again, Elway shouldn't feel rushed to do a deal if the value isn't there.  But if there's a legit offer that has a 2020 1st....well, this week got even more interesting in a hurry.

[germ-x]

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I don't blame Harris Jr. one bit.  Agree on all you say.

The problem is that outlay of $ likely happens while we're still not a legit contender.  That's the problematic part (along with how many years we might be committing to - decline from 2020 on becomes a greater risk).  Why if we can get full value, we have to consider trading him.  But we shouldn't feel compelled to sell low on him, either.   The trade deadline won't likely have CB's with his skill set and so his trade value will remain stable even if Elway waits, unless there's an unfortunate injury (decline is possible, but so unlikely given we've not seen any signs yet - 2020+ is another story, but 2019 seems very safe).

The timing of 2 days pre-draft isn't ideal - that's where Elway shouldn't feel pressured to trade him...unless the offer is so good it would be justified if it were on the table 1 month ago (or a year from now, just before the draft).  The cheap 2019 contract and affordable franchise tag gives DEN enough leverage in future value for any potential trade partner (2 years, 22M is a bargain for a top CB before you add his versatility), this shouldn't be a forced sell-off like we've seen in other situations on other teams.

Either way, though, no doubt it's going to be an interesting 2 days - if nothing else, the CB priority draft-wise might very well change (IMO it should have been a top 3 need regardless, because the draft beyond Rd1 you really shouldn't count on 2019 impact, and after 2019 is done, we only had 2 young CB's in the fold with Callahan/Yiadom that we could likely count on to be in the top 4 rotation, but this will no doubt magnify that need).

Don’t disagree with any of this either.  I believe it was Klis, who a while back said CB was still a priority for Denver even after adding Jackson and Callahan.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

Don’t disagree with any of this either.  I believe it was Klis, who a while back said CB was still a priority for Denver even after adding Jackson and Callahan.

Yeah, I loved the Callahan signing, even though he's mostly slot-only.  I figured this was preparing for life after Harris in 2020 - being 25, barring injury, he's going to play his entire contract in his peak years, love those kind of signings (and not top-shelf $ either).   Jackson's age and injury history, I wasn't nearly so high on, given I don't see him here long-term (2020 is a really iffy year IMO that we committed to).  But this probably crystallizes our CB need into a lock pick by Rd3.

If Baker is falling and he's there at 2.11, going to be hard to see how we pass on him - even if we haven't resolved the Harris situation.   Man, draft weekend really got interesting.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

2 hours ago, germ-x said:

I fully understand Harris’ stance.  He’s probably the most underrated CB in football and has numerous years of top 5 grades by PFF, last year he was their #3 graded CB and many of these agents use the PFF grades as leverage.  

Harris will be 30 and many CBs, similar to RBs, see a drop in production after 30, however, in Harris’ case he brings a ton of versatility, much like Kareem Jackson and it wouldn’t surprise me at all that Harris has taken this stance with the organization after seeing them pay Jackson $11M a year.  Harris has experience as an outside CB, nickel CB, and a bit at safety.  He isn’t as good vs the run or as violent a tackler as Jackson, but Harris is a sure tackler and no slouch when it comes to run support or getting a player to the ground, while is is also far better in coverage than Jackson.

Honestly, Harris is probably worth the money when factoring in the versatility as long as it isn’t tied to a 5 year contract (though maybe you make that move and spread some of the money out) 3 years $45M makes sense. Even if his production drops as an outside CB as long as he’s healthy he’s arguably the best nickel in the NFL and also mixes it up in the run game.

I don't disagree with what you say, all true.

That said, his timing is incredibly bush league and about as classless a move as you can make. Three days before the draft and you play the "pay me or trade me" card? What a bunch of ridiculous BS!

I'd ship him out tomorrow for whatever I could get in draft picks. 

Keep in mind, I've been a huge fan up until today. Classy on and off the field and an asset to the community. Whats a guy like that doing, summoning his inner TO or what? 

Gee, what an a**h*le! ( quote from Ghostbusters)