Let the Offseason Begin

[BroncoBruin]

One step forward, two steps back. Was excited about the secondary. 

[BroncoBruin]

2 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I don't disagree with what you say, all true.

That said, his timing is incredibly bush league and about as classless a move as you can make. Three days before the draft and you play the "pay me or trade me" card? What a bunch of ridiculous BS!

I'd ship him out tomorrow for whatever I could get in draft picks. 

Keep in mind, I've been a huge fan up until today. Classy on and off the field and an asset to the community. Whats a guy like that doing, summoning his inner TO or what? 

Gee, what an a**h*le! ( quote from Ghostbusters)

I'd imagine this is an emotional response to Elway's presser comments. Elway's ego and need to project control publicly has been a problem in the past in negotiations. I'm getting pretty sick of it.

Yet again, he waits too long to offer a raise and is now boxed in. 

[jsthomp2007]

Trade him straight up for Pat P.  Or,b trade him to Detroit where he can pine for a Super Bowl run there. 

 

Why couldn't the Broncos get a first this year? It'd be kind of nice to pair Yiadom with another young CB for the long term, while putting Kareem at safety where I think he'd be a better fit to finally have a safety who can cover TEs.

Edited April 24, 2019 by jsthomp2007

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

I'd imagine this is an emotional response to Elway's presser comments. Elway's ego and need to project control publicly has been a problem in the past in negotiations. I'm getting pretty sick of it.

Yet again, he waits too long to offer a raise and is now boxed in. 

Harris has the right to miss OTA's.   And he has kept very quiet and said all the right things until yesterday.   And we know he's been nothing but a complete leader and team guy until yesterday.

The only thing that changed was Elway's presser, which right away reporters noted was very different in tone than past discussions - he went out of his way to say talking didn't mean an extension was getting done.

So yeah, I agree on your point that the presser brought this to a head.   Now, the business side of the game is always unpleasant.  So some of this is unavoidable - when a star player feels undervalued and then it's more public (not committing to extend), it's a tough pill to swallow.   The other part of this - giving Kareem Jackson 3 years 33M and 23M guaranteed with his body of work at age 30, and then telling Harris he has to play out his undervalued contract - it really becomes a huge issue for Harris.  I can't blame him for being upset.   This is where the collective agreement being so team-tilted until you hit FA (and the leverage the tag gives teams) creates huge issues.  A trade request is the only leverage a player has.

 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Trade him straight up for Pat P.  Or,b trade him to Detroit where he can pine for a Super Bowl run there. 

 

Why couldn't the Broncos get a first this year? It'd be kind of nice to pair Yiadom with another young CB for the long term, while putting Kareem at safety where I think he'd be a better fit to finally have a safety who can cover TEs.

The reality is that the only players that get 1sts are either 1) young players at difference making positions (Mack in CHI, Cooper in DAL, Clark with KC - all around 25-26 or younger), or  2) with a team that is contending who has no other alternatives (MIN with Sam Bradford when Teddy B went down).

Keep in mind we aren't the only sellers - P-Pete & ARI, and MIA has Xavien Howard in his last year, and both are very much public rebuilders.  If a team is willing to pony up a 1st for CHJ, MIA/ARI would have likely explored this.   Teams just value 1sts so much, not because it gives them the same kind of player, but it offers a guy who is so cheap - literally 10x cheaper than P-Pete/CHJ are right now.   That matters so much in team building - why we need to hit at least the next 2 drafts to return to contenders.

The teams that might buy at full value are also likely contenders who are completely in win-now mode.   Teams like ARI/DET really don't fit.   The best bets are the teams that really see 2019 as an all-in type year, especially since Harris' age and his unclear contract status (although the tag allows 1 more year of cost certainty worst-case to calculate off) don't allow for long-term valuation beyond 2019-20 at most, and the tag comes with all sorts of drama that we've seen with other star players.

There's always a bad GM / desperate win-now GM who could do it, but the more likely scenario seems a 2020 1st at best - given waiting a year drops the value down a lot in teams' eyes.  The price Klis and Renck keep mentioning are 2nds - and 2 teams who are very much a CB away from increasing their legit contention chances are SF (35 pick) and IND (own NYJ's 35 pick).  I'm a gambler and I'd take the 2020 1st especially if we are delaying our QBOTF until then, but those early 2nds would likely be fair value.  And very plausible given what both teams need and how close they are to contending (SF with likely Bosa at 1.2, CHJ at CB and Jimmy G back?  IND is already there, obv).

Either way, should be a really interesting weekend.  But if Elway doesn't find a match, Harris's value as a difference maker won't change much - and then post-draft, the alternatives to address CB go away.  So even if nothing happens this weekend, a trade later is very much in play - it would just be in 2020 pick assets.  That might provide a wider range of suitors, though, so it's not like it has to happen this weekend.  It's more convenient for early impact - but as we are really in it for the long-term, I won't mind if this doesn't get done - Elway's win-now mode though may tip his preference to take a 2019 2nd especially if it's early.  Should make for a crazy weekend (plus Avengers & GoT ep 3, good things come in 3's lol).

Edited April 24, 2019 by Broncofan

[champ11]

7 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I don't disagree with what you say, all true.

That said, his timing is incredibly bush league and about as classless a move as you can make. Three days before the draft and you play the "pay me or trade me" card? What a bunch of ridiculous BS!

I'd ship him out tomorrow for whatever I could get in draft picks. 

Keep in mind, I've been a huge fan up until today. Classy on and off the field and an asset to the community. Whats a guy like that doing, summoning his inner TO or what? 

Gee, what an a**h*le! ( quote from Ghostbusters)

Oh come on. Chris is an all time great Bronco that deserves to get paid. Blame Elway....It was his response to Elway being arrogant and flippant. He's said he wants a new deal, that he deserves, and this is clearly the next step for him in making that happen. 

[jsthomp2007]

43 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The reality is that the only players that get 1sts are either 1) young players at difference making positions (Mack in CHI, Cooper in DAL, Clark with KC - all around 25-26 or younger), or  2) with a team that is contending who has no other alternatives (MIN with Sam Bradford when Teddy B went down).

Keep in mind we aren't the only sellers - P-Pete & ARI, and MIA has Xavien Howard in his last year, and both are very much public rebuilders.  If a team is willing to pony up a 1st for CHJ, MIA/ARI would have likely explored this.   Teams just value 1sts so much, not because it gives them the same kind of player, but it offers a guy who is so cheap - literally 10x cheaper than P-Pete/CHJ are right now.   That matters so much in team building - why we need to hit at least the next 2 drafts to return to contenders.

The teams that might buy at full value are also likely contenders who are completely in win-now mode.   Teams like ARI/DET really don't fit.   The best bets are the teams that really see 2019 as an all-in type year, especially since Harris' age and his unclear contract status (although the tag allows 1 more year of cost certainty worst-case to calculate off) don't allow for long-term valuation beyond 2019-20 at most, and the tag comes with all sorts of drama that we've seen with other star players.

There's always a bad GM / desperate win-now GM who could do it, but the more likely scenario seems a 2020 1st at best - given waiting a year drops the value down a lot in teams' eyes.  The price Klis and Renck keep mentioning are 2nds - and 2 teams who are very much a CB away from increasing their legit contention chances are SF (35 pick) and IND (own NYJ's 35 pick).  I'm a gambler and I'd take the 2020 1st especially if we are delaying our QBOTF until then, but those early 2nds would likely be fair value.  And very plausible given what both teams need and how close they are to contending (SF with likely Bosa at 1.2, CHJ at CB and Jimmy G back?  IND is already there, obv).

Either way, should be a really interesting weekend.  But if Elway doesn't find a match, Harris's value as a difference maker won't change much - and then post-draft, the alternatives to address CB go away.  So even if nothing happens this weekend, a trade later is very much in play - it would just be in 2020 pick assets.  That might provide a wider range of suitors, though, so it's not like it has to happen this weekend.  It's more convenient for early impact - but as we are really in it for the long-term, I won't mind if this doesn't get done - Elway's win-now mode though may tip his preference to take a 2019 2nd especially if it's early.  Should make for a crazy weekend (plus Avengers & GoT ep 3, good things come in 3's lol).

I think a 2nd and a 3rd/4th this year would make sense.  Or a second a player.  

[broncos67]

It's a business. I don't fault Harris- especially not knowing what has happened behind the scenes. That said, I think he's as good as gone, and if we strip emotion out of it, I wouldn't pay Harris what he's asking. There's significant risk there. He's had some *slight* injury concerns, and he's 30. Paying him through his mid 30's at a $15MM/year price tag is a huge risk. 

I understand why Harris is miffed. It's just like in business when someone from the outside comes in at the same level and gets more $$$ than you, even when you're a better performer. The question here, as in real life, is do you stay and be loyal, or do what's best for you? 

[Scoundrel]

You guys are wildly optimistic. Harris isn’t fetching more than a 4th imo. Use him as a trade up piece if you can’t get value for him. He is 30, coming off injury, and wants more money. 

[broncos67]

Just now, Counselor said:

Harris isn’t fetching more than a 4th imo. Use him as a trade up piece if you can’t get value for him. 

Agreed. As a standalone, I would expect a 3rd because that's likely what kind of compensatory pick we'd get if he walked, but using him in a package to move up seems more valuable.

[Scoundrel]

Just now, broncos67 said:

Agreed. As a standalone, I would expect a 3rd because that's likely what kind of compensatory pick we'd get if he walked, but using him in a package to move up seems more valuable.

Even if it’s not up from 10. I’m sure a team in the later half of the first would like him for a super bowl push. Trade 41 and Harris to jump into the end of the first and secure a fifth year option on whoever you want there. 

[Scoundrel]

What is New England’s cap space like? Trade 41 and Harris for 32. I’d bet they’d do it. 

[Scoundrel]

Heck they might even throw one of those late picks our way in the deal because they can’t roster them all. 

[Broncofan]

FWIW for those who point to CHJ’s injury - it was a fracture that didn’t require surgery and he played the Pro Bowl (not the same but showed he was healthy).  

Unlike a knee injury or hip / shoulder that doesn’t carry long term risk.   So keep this in mind.   It’s a non issue.  The age and future money after 2020 is the bigger problem.   

As for those that point to Talib - we were in cap hell and Elway saw signs of decline and was committed to sell at the highest price no matter what.   He doesn’t have that same urgency yet knowing Harris has to report.  

Add it up I think Renck sums up well what Elway’s position would be.   I’d take it one step further and if we pass on QB at 1.10 I’d be creative with exploring a 2020 1st / 3rd swap of picks (or if it’s a 1st/2nd then get a 2019 3rd).   That gives real ammo to get the QBOTF in 2020.   But the Rd3 floor and Rd2 target net value wise seems the goal.  Otherwise I’d be fine with waiting.  TBH getting 2020 assets fits better with our likely earliest window to contend (2021 being most realistic).   I agree we aren't likely to get a 1st net value alone - but if we could swing a 2nd 2020 1st with a pick swap, then all of a sudden our QB planning doesn't look so iffy (assuming we aren't going QB early this year).

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Broncofan

[1234567]

The timing of this tells me he wants out of Denver. Asking for an amount you know they aren't going to pay a 30 year old, and then demanding a trade right before the draft (his best chance to get traded) says all it needs to. Thank you for your services CHJ; best of luck to you.