Let the Offseason Begin

[AnAngryAmerican]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Rumors that Bronco's are shopping Miller.

Thoughts?

Lol. Where did you hear that from? 

Denver radio’s version of Skip Bayless, who goes by “D-Mac,” has been floating that idea for years now. He’s just a pot-stirrer whose constantly trying to say things to get people riled up. He’s a joke and so is this “rumor.” 

[AnAngryAmerican]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Not sure I would want to come coach there right now.  Seems to be an instant hot seat with no real direction.

 

It’s always going to be an instant hot-west because of the expectations of the franchise. As SI said in a piece I read earlier, “you don’t have back to back losing seasons in Denver and survive.” It’s the nature of the beast. 

The biggest short-term problems with the job here is a) there is no legit QB and b) no easy means of acquiring a sure-fire one. A lot around here feel that, a much as we like  Chubb and the decision to draft him that passing on Rosen and Allen could be viewed as a missed opportunity. 

The biggest long-term, or maybe better said, institutional problem with coaching here is the ownership situation. The team needs to win now to keep healthy cash flow, get a stadium naming-rights partner and keep the disgruntled (rightfully disgruntled, IMO) members of the Bowlen family at bay. Joe Ellis and others won’t survive another pair of losing seasons. 

[AKRNA]

49 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, but literally 13M of the 20M dead money for the next 3 years was because Elway wanted to reduce Von's 2018 cap hit from 23MM to 10M while still paying his money.    And that's all on Elway - he never did that before with anyone else - and simply to get Veldheer & Clinton McDonald / Tremaine Brock to fit under our 2018 cap.   Elway keeps the contract the same as originally designed,  we see a 20.5M, 20.5M and 18M total hit, instead of those 25M+ figures for 2019-20 (and 22M for 2021).   Elway had the original contract perfectly set up to keep Von affordable before.  Hindsight is 20-20, but man, for what we got...obviously, ugh.

The reality is that trading or cutting (not happening) Von is only saving us 17-18M per year.   Now, on the flip side, Von only costing 17-18M for a team trading him is why he could fetch a mint for us at a point where we do think we should trade him.    But given our cap implications this year, seems very unlikely.   After 2019, though, well it depends how close we really think we are to contention.  Then all bets are off....

I'm not arguing that Elway screwed up. I was furious when he and Sullivan did that. IMO that was absolutely terrible cap management, no question. It's also a killer, cap wise, when trying to assemble a roster. he used a similar but smaller version with Keenum,  $15mil this year and $21mil for next season.

Until Elway pulls his head out of his keister and quits borrowing from next year to finance this one we're stuck in a huge rut. He and Sullivan didn't do this initially and had success. Why did they change? beats the hell out of me.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

I'm not arguing that Elway screwed up. I was furious when he and Sullivan did that. IMO that was absolutely terrible cap management, no question. It's also a killer, cap wise, when trying to assemble a roster. he used a similar but smaller version with Keenum,  $15mil this year and $21mil for next season.

Until Elway pulls his head out of his keister and quits borrowing from next year to finance this one we're stuck in a huge rut. He and Sullivan didn't do this initially and had success. Why did they change? beats the hell out of me.

Yeah to me, it's the first sign of trouble when the one move that dooms long-term health starts to get considered.  Instead of realizing that it's the path that perpetuates franchise mediocrity, and the avoidance of this is what led to the team's ability to be competitive for 4 years running and yet still be active in FA, Elway caved in a bid to win now. IMO the pressure to win now with a mediocre team overruled the sensible approach that's worked for many years.   One can only hope given how bad that FA spree / Von restructure worked out, that Elway learned his lesson there.

[AKRNA]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah to me, it's the first sign of trouble when the one move that dooms long-term health starts to get considered.  Instead of realizing that it's the path that perpetuates franchise mediocrity, and the avoidance of this is what led to the team's ability to be competitive for 4 years running and yet still be active in FA, Elway caved in a bid to win now. IMO the pressure to win now with a mediocre team overruled the sensible approach that's worked for many years.   One can only hope given how bad that FA spree / Von restructure worked out, that Elway learned his lesson there.

One would hope.

[broncosfan_101]

If Elway’s not going balls out to get a franchise QB this spring, honestly, there are worse decisions he could make than trading Miller and Harris. I adore Chris Harris, but one year left on his deal...re-signing a 30+ year old corner to a big deal, you’re hoping that the first 1-2 years are great, and then you’re happy with average marginal value after that. The first 1-2 years of his next contract don’t look like super bowl chances unless the QB arrives this March/April, so if you can get a pair of 2nd’s, I think it’s a no-brainer. Even a 2nd and 4th is probably enough for me to pull the trigger. 

And if you’re trading Harris, you’re fully going down Rebuild Road. Getting another 1st in this draft, plus one next year when there seems to be 3 pretty great QB options for Von...that can vault us back to contender status pretty darn quick. Sports teams way too often get stuck in purgatory because they wait too long to reset. If there’s no QB coming this spring, it’s time to reset. 

[germ-x]

I mean if Denver is going full rebuild trading Von makes sense.  He’d net at least a round 1 pick this year or next and give Denver the ammo to get the QB of their choosing in the draft. 

Though, I find this highly unlikely.  

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

If Elway’s not going balls out to get a franchise QB this spring, honestly, there are worse decisions he could make than trading Miller and Harris. I adore Chris Harris, but one year left on his deal...re-signing a 30+ year old corner to a big deal, you’re hoping that the first 1-2 years are great, and then you’re happy with average marginal value after that. The first 1-2 years of his next contract don’t look like super bowl chances unless the QB arrives this March/April, so if you can get a pair of 2nd’s, I think it’s a no-brainer. Even a 2nd and 4th is probably enough for me to pull the trigger. 

And if you’re trading Harris, you’re fully going down Rebuild Road. Getting another 1st in this draft, plus one next year when there seems to be 3 pretty great QB options for Von...that can vault us back to contender status pretty darn quick. Sports teams way too often get stuck in purgatory because they wait too long to reset. If there’s no QB coming this spring, it’s time to reset. 

 

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

I mean if Denver is going full rebuild trading Von makes sense.  He’d net at least a round 1 pick this year or next and give Denver the ammo to get the QB of their choosing in the draft. 

Though, I find this highly unlikely.  

I agree 100 percent that if you are going to part ways with a player, you are always better to go a year too soon than a year too late.   I know as unpopular as it was at the time, parting ways with past high-character guys like TJ Ward & CJ Anderson proved to be the absolute correct move.   It hurts more, but the same principle still applies with star players (but it has to yield a return that justifies a trade here, not talking cut).   I don't think we need to worry about performance decline risk for Von or Harris in a vacuum.   The issue is the contract life for Harris.   If there's a time to get value, it's when there's a 1+ years left in a contract.   Not when you have the franchise tag as the only mechanism left, because as we saw with Le'veon Bell, a player can exercise his right to hold out, and that prevents any possible trade, and basically kills the team's bargaining power with other teams.     

I forgot that Harris' deal is coming up to an end in 2019.  So yeah, it's not crazy (and to be fair, I think @thebestever6 floated this a while back, but I was in holiday mode, so didn't look up Harris' deal, thought he was locked up with us for 2020+).   That actually changes the time window when a trade is best.  It's not at all crazy to think Harris could be traded - at the VERY latest, trading him before this year's trade deadline is a no-brainer.   Now, given FA is still available for teams, I think the best time to consider trading Harris is after the first wave of high end FA's go - because then any team looking for CB help only has the draft, and very few CB's are available who can help right away.    The obvious risk is that with 3 good CB's in this year's draft projected to go somewhere in top 35, there may not be much of a market.   Also keep in mind that JAX and Jalen Ramsey seem to be at a crossroads - so obviously if they make Ramsey available in trade, it trumps us in a huge way, given the extra years, younger player and as much as I hate to say it, Ramsey's higher status in the CB pecking order.   Going to be a crazy offseason in JAX.   Still, a 7M salary is so affordable, it should make him attractive if Elway would commit to a full-on rebuild.   At worst, Elway should be kicking the tires after the draft, when teams are out of options - that might be the best time to get the highest return, right now, there are a lot of options teams can look to (the risk being you reduce the buyer pool, but at 7M I think it's a risk worth taking, shouldn't eliminate many teams).

As for Von - I get the idea that if we are in a total full-on rebuild, we shouldn't think anyone is untradeable, even Von.    Frankly, if it meant we locked in 2 early 2020 1sts (along with future 1st beyond 2020), I agree it's not crazy.  But I would point out that given Von's tradeable salary is 17-18M for the next 3 seasons, we shouldn't be trading him at discounts - he should be commanding at least 2 1st round picks, and if it's a team likely to be in the playoffs (and as we saw from CHI, a generational EDGE can get them there), it should be even in 3 1st round pick territory.   Mack only got 2 1sts (and a swap back of their 2nd), but that was because he had no long-term deal signed, so anyone trading for him couldn't guarantee a long-term deal, and OAK was desperate to not commit big $ to him in a full-on rebuild situation - and that put OAK in a position where they had to deal or else risk losing him with only comp picks - we aren't in the same position with 3 years left on Von's deal.    Given that it would also actually cost us cap space to deal him this year (not that we need it as much anymore, and long-term matters more, but optics wise it's brutal), Elway shouldn't be even taking calls unless it's a crazy return.   Different story if there's only 1 year left like with Mack's situation, but we do have time on our side, much more than OAK did with Mack. 

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

54 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

I agree 100 percent that if you are going to part ways with a player, you are always better to go a year too soon than a year too late. 

We need to keep in mind that Von turns 30 in March. Even LT's production started dropping after 30 and Von's no LT. If we're going to have a large dead cap I'd just as soon it be next season rather than 2020 or 21.

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

We need to keep in mind that Von turns 30 in March. Even LT's production started dropping after 30 and Von's no LT. If we're going to have a large dead cap I'd just as soon it be next season rather than 2020 or 21.

His skill set is one that generally ages well even at 30, but I hear you.   Unlike 2 years ago, I think you can't say anyone is untradeable.   We just can really set a high, high bar with Von on what's a reasonable return. 

At 17-18M (the salary the team takes on) for 2019-21, that's still a bargain relative to production even with some decline, and a huge bargain if he's static in his top 3 EDGE status (if not top, but I think I have to give Mack the edge this year, pun intended - but Von's still in the same elite tier play-wise).   A team who wants him better be offering their 2019 & 2020 1sts, and no early picks back - and if it's already a contender, 3 1sts isnt' crazy.   OAK was in a position where they had to sell - we aren't forced to with 3 years left.  That's a big difference.  I think it's far more likely though that next offseason is when the Von trade noise becomes a real thing, if we're still facing a long rebuild (likely if we haven't figured out QBOTF by then, which sadly is our most likely result at this stage).

Edited January 4, 2019 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

21 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

We need to keep in mind that Von turns 30 in March. Even LT's production started dropping after 30 and Von's no LT. If we're going to have a large dead cap I'd just as soon it be next season rather than 2020 or 21.

I’ll have to disagree.  Von is every bit as physically talented as LT was.  Also takes far better care of his body.  LT was an alcoholic/drug addict for basically his entire career.

[AKRNA]

5 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I’ll have to disagree.  Von is every bit as physically talented as LT was.  Also takes far better care of his body.  LT was an alcoholic/drug addict for basically his entire career.

Physically talented yeah. Problem with Von is and has been how to hit the "on" switch. LT was "on" every play of every game. If Von had that mentality he'd go down as the GOAT. As it is, just a very good edge rusher.

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I’ll have to disagree.  Von is every bit as physically talented as LT was.  Also takes far better care of his body.  LT was an alcoholic/drug addict for basically his entire career.

 

6 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Physically talented yeah. Problem with Von is and has been how to hit the "on" switch. LT was "on" every play of every game. If Von had that mentality he'd go down as the GOAT. As it is, just a very good edge rusher.

FWIW, LT admitted to both cocaine and booze use while he was playing.   His decline was very much accelerated by the lifestyle.    We know Von is taking care of himself.  So he should age at a much more stable rate.   I agree Von is a generational talent at LT's tier - the best of his generation.   Right now, only Mack has that same skill set.   

A better comp barring a new injury - Terrell Suggs.  I think we'd all agree Von is probably even better than Suggs production wise, but athletically, Suggs put up the same elite skill set (just a little smaller, a little less explosive, so that translated to less production than Von at peak).   Suggs production really only started to tail off in his age 33 year, with injury.  Now, injury is always the big bugaboo, but the elite skill set that's not entirely based on brute force, it usually ages well into the early-mid 30's.  

None of the above changes the mindset that anyone is tradeable, but I don't see that we need to be that worried about Von yet production-wise (and remember, I'm definitely someone who prefers to sell a year too soon than a year too late).   But we can't treat him as untradeable, either - just the price should be a crazy return this year.  Next offseason, though, with only 2 years left, albeit still very affordably priced for the team that acquires him, well, I think it becomes a very plausible scenario with juice.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

9 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Physically talented yeah. Problem with Von is and has been how to hit the "on" switch. LT was "on" every play of every game. If Von had that mentality he'd go down as the GOAT. As it is, just a very good edge rusher.

I don’t disagree with that.  I’ve always said I’ve felt Von chooses when to give full effort.  However, that can also translate into longevity.  

I haven’t seen anything to indicate Von has physically lost a step.  I don’t doubt for a second he’s capable of keeping up at a pro bowl level for the next 3-4 years and be capable of 10-15 sacks a season.  Barring a major injury he’ll pass LT on the all time sack list and be a sure fire HOFer, more than just a good pass rusher.

[AKRNA]

2 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree with that.  I’ve always said I’ve felt Von chooses when to give full effort.  However, that can also translate into longevity.  

I haven’t seen anything to indicate Von has physically lost a step.  I don’t doubt for a second he’s capable of keeping up at a pro bowl level for the next 3-4 years and be capable of 10-15 sacks a season.  Barring a major injury he’ll pass LT on the all time sack list and be a sure fire HOFer, more than just a good pass rusher.

He'll pass LT, and probably make the HOF. It's a shame though that we'll never see a full season of Von at his best. He's got the ability to take over almost any game but rarely does it. To me, he's the most frustrating Bronco I've ever seen.