BDL 2018 Quarterfinals: #7 Hawaii Nightmarchers @ #2 Oklahoma City EF5s

[ny92mike]

BDL 2018 Quarterfinals

Match:  Hawaii Nightmarchers @ Oklahoma City EF5s

Away Owner: @Hockey5djh

Home Owner:  @Whicker

 

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[ny92mike]

Hawaii Nightmarchers

Offense  

QB – Russell Wilson
RB – Saquon Barkley 
WR – Antonio Brown
WR – Stefon Diggs
WR – Josh Gordon
LT – Andrew Whitworth
LG – Marshall Yanda
C – Ryan Kelly  
RG – Ben Garland
RT – Taylor Decker 
TE – Ben Watson

BN – TE – Dallas Goedert
BN - RB - Dion Lewis
BN - RB – Tarik Cohen
BN – WR - Tre’Quan Smith
BN – WR - Josh Doctson
BN – OT – Jordan Mills
BN – OG – Tom Compton
BN – OC - Pat Elflein
  

Defense  

DE – Jadeveon Clowney
DT – Deforest Buckner
DT – Sheldon Rankins
DE – Frank Clark
LB – Roquon Smith
LB – Kyler Fackrell
CB – Casey Heyward
CB – Marshon Lattimore
CB – K’wuan Williams
FS – DJ Swearinger
SS – Eric Weddle   

  
BN –
BN – DE – Harold Landry
BN – DE - William Hayes
BN – DT – BJ Hill
BN – LB – Tahir Whitehead
BN – LB – Duke Riley
BN – S – Ron Parker 
BN - CB - Bobby McCain

 

Oklahoma City EF5s

 

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Kenny Stills
WR/OW: D.J. Moore
LT: David Bakhtiari
LG: James Daniels
C: Rodney Hudson
RG: Michael Schofield III
RT: Morgan Moses (Q)

WR: Michael Gallup
WR: Anthony Miller
WR: Taywan Taylor
RB: Giovani Bernard
TE: Jesse James
TE: Mark Andrews
OT: Brian O'Neill
OL: Zach Fulton

 

 

LOLB: Von Miller
DE: Cameron Heyward
NT: Eddie Goldman
DE: Stephon Tuitt
LB: Lorenzo Alexander
LB: Cory Littleton
CB: Patrick Peterson
CB: Shaquill Griffin
CB: Michael Davis
FS: Malik Hooker
SS: Adrian Amos

OLB: Ryan Kerrigan
OLB: Matt Judon
DL: Tyeler Davison
DL: Montravius Adams
LB: A.J. Klein
CB: Fabian Moreau
CB: P.J.Williams
S: Jordan Poyer

[ny92mike]

Hawaii Nightmarchers

Offense

Running game – I feel like this is getting repetitive but Saquon is a beast. He will be given his 20 carries and 5-10 catches with the goal of attacking the middle of the field. Once he gets through that first level OKC has been rotating linebackers in and out of the lineup but whether it’s Littleton, Alexander, Amos or all three in the box the one prevailing theme is that none of them can hang with Saquon either with the ball in his hands or in coverage. To assist Saquon getting to the second level Watson will stay as an in-line blocker to keep the OKC pass rushers at bay. Tarik Cohen will see snaps in the slot and on some reverse plays just to keep the OKC offense spread and keep them from over-committing to the run. As always if a gap opens up for Wilson to pick up chunk yardage he will be given the green light to keep the chains moving.

Passing game – While Saquon is a huge asset in the check down game we believe that our bread and butter this week will be in the passing game. We’re assuming PP21 will be assigned to AB, if he’s not AB will be targeted mercilessly. If he is we feel like we have a huge advantage attacking the depth of the OKC secondary. Diggs and Gordon will be featured in this offense squaring off against Shaquill Griffin (ranked 104 of a possible 112 CBs) and either Mike Davis or Fabian Moreau who are both below average NFL CBs, not to mention BDL CBs. Occasionally we will spread to 4 wide and bring Tre’Quan Smith on the field to challenge OKC’s depth even further and also provide and additional vertical threat to keep OKC’s safeties from packing the box.  

Defense

DL/LB – On defense this week we’re using an attack mentality and getting to Cam Newton. Cam has been on a slide recently losing each of his last 5 games and giving up 8 INTs over that span. Hawaii this week will be looking to take advantage of this trend. The D line should get great pressure up front featuring Jadevoen Clowney and Frank Clark on the edges and DeForest Buckner and Sheldon Rankins on the inside. Our starting DL combines for 36 sacks between them. They should all have advantages against the OKC line as Bakhtiari is playing through injury and Moses, Daniel, and Schofield all rank in the bottom half of the league. To ensure that the pressure gets home we will be featuring a handful of LB blitzes from Kyler Fackrell who’s main job will either to blitz Cam Newton or spy him to ensure that his legs don’t give OKC any advantages. Roquon will patrol the middle of the field and shut down the running lanes for Joe Mixon.

Secondary – In the secondary we are going to do a base cover 1 with a press man scheme. The goal of this defense is to disrupt the running routes early and allow the D Line/Blitz to get to the QB. Hayward will cover Thielen, Lattimore will cover Woods, K’Wuan Williams will get DJ Moore. Swearinger will take deep safety and centerfield role, shaded to Thielen’s side. Weddle will come down in the box to cover the TE and/or provide secondary blitzing from the outside. Jesse James has 12 catches over the last 7 weeks so we don’t consider him a major threat. If they go 4 wide, Bobby Williams will come off the bench to cover Kenny Stills and will play off coverage to keep him from getting anything deep. If they go two TE Fackrell (Who is a surprising top 15 coverage LB) will cover O’Shag-Henessey.

TL;DR – Saquon will get the ball to move the chains and control the clock but our offense will gain chunk yardage against OKC’s terrible secondary depth against Diggs, Gordon, and Smith. On defense we will be bringing an attacking front with press man corners suffocating the passing game and forcing Cam to get rid of it quick and turn the ball over.

 

 

Oklahoma City EF5s

This week we get to take one of the biggest steps on our journey to finish this amazing, Cinderella season with the happiest ending. We've absolutely shocked the BDL world already, but, like early on the season, we still have our many doubters. Amid minor controversy to end the regular season, a seemingly lost fact is that we took Louisiana by storm, dismantled Orlando, and then stunned Rome. We know that we've got what it takes to beat the alleged powerhouses. We know that our talent level deserved the #1 seed this year. We know that with good coaching and a little luck, there is every reason that the BizzBowl belongs in Oklahoma City this year.

When I took over this team, I always had the plan of moving it to Oklahoma City. However, the ghost of Rack gave me pause on the relocation of the franchise. He had simply left me with an “I'm busy this week – can you cover my gameplan?” message, and I had assumed for a long time that he would return to reclaim his team. I kept the team in LA awaiting his return, which, fortunately or unfortunately, never happened. When I finally decided that the team was 100% mine and moved, our championship window had closed. This is the first ever BDL playoff game in Oklahoma City, and the fans here have been long awaiting their promised playoff contender. This crowd is absolutely going to be raucous as all hell, and it's going to be a tough, tough place for Hawaii to come in to play.

 

Offense:

It's strange how quickly things can change in football. Last year at this time, I was imagining my future team as one that would be based upon its principles already in place: its elite defense. It took just one conversation with my co-owner about the direction of this team to change my mind about how to rebuild this team's structure. Although the process was faster than I had planned, we now see the new direction of this franchise. We're here to score points. We're here to use our young, exciting, and deep group of wide receivers to put pressure on opposing defensive secondaries. Hawaii has a great offense with a lot of star power, but we're willing to engage them in a shootout. We want to start fast and game script Hawaii's rushing out of the game. We want to score points to make Russell Wilson have to lead several touchdown drives to beat us.

Spread Offense: We've been operating out of a spread offense for the past several weeks as we await the return of Melvin Gordon, and we will continue to do so in this matchup. Adam Thielen will play the most snaps and operate mostly out of the slot as he has been in recent weeks. Robert Woods will play a similar number of snaps and will be moved around often. Our remaining WRs will all play inside and outside with D.J. Moore working as the designated Offensive Weapon in select packages. Moore and Kenny Stills will see the majority of the snaps behind Thielen and Woods, but all of our listed wide receivers will see snaps in this game. We will also utilize 5 WR sets as Hawaii only carries four healthy corners. In these 5 WR sets, we will look to exploit the matchup against the safety who's alone against one of our wide receivers.

Option Routes: One of our main focus concepts this week will be an option route from the slot. Although we will run more plays than this a basic form of this concept is Ace H-Option shown here: http://winwiththepass.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Option-jpeg-1.jpg. The main idea behind this concept is that we believe that we have a talented enough WR in Adam Thielen to frequently be open in one on one coverage. He can break in, break out, or sit down. He provides a natural hot route for a blitz if it's read correctly pre-snap. If he receives a double team from a second level defender, then that leaves the crossing route (most likely run by D.J. Moore or Robert Woods) open or the middle of the field wide open for a Cam Newton scramble. If the crossing route is open and the deep safety jumps on it, then the backside post route opens up over the top. This concept also has the advantage of freeing up the running back to check protection before going out on a swing route.

Mesh/Rub Routes vs Man-Coverage: Another way we want to scheme our receivers open is by the use of legal rub routes and mesh concepts. On our typical mesh play (http://winwiththepass.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Mesh-picture-e1433803858625-1.jpg) we want Robert Woods and Kenny Stills on the outside corner routes, using their speed to hold the safeties and keep them from moving up and attacking. Then, we can plan on getting the ball into the hands of Thielen or Moore on the crosser and potentially nabbing a nice RAC. The corner route, especially one unguarded by a safety in a Cover-1, is the primary read, but Newton is expected to come off of it quickly to hit the mesh route. Similar to the option concept, the running back's first responsibility will be to check protection.

Levels Concepts: Our third major passing concept this week will be the Levels concept. The basic levels concept is a versatile play that can be used against any coverage. It uses a shallow cross, dig route, and post to attack the first, second, and third levels of the defense simultaneously with easy throws. http://winwiththepass.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Zlevels-picture-e1431189039156-1.jpg. With this concept, we will use Moore and Woods on the shallow cross, getting them running away from their man in man-coverage. Thielen will run the dig route. The free safety, then, will have to choose between the Dig and the Post, leaving one exposed in single coverage.

Hurry Up Offense and WR Rotation: Hawaii's roster only contains four healthy corners, and we plan on running them ragged. Our offense will be a hurry-up, no-huddle offense with simple one-word playcalls. All of our primary offensive concepts contain crossing routes which force a man-coverage corner to traverse the field with the wide receiver. We are going to rotate our WRs fairly often as we trust all of our listed wide receivers to beat the third and fourth corners of Hawaii in man-coverage, especially when those corners are winded. This will allow us to continue running our crossing and mesh routes at full speed.

Cam Newton's Mobility: Our first and primary use of Cam Newton's mobility in this game will be as a threat. We expect Hawaii to utilize a QB spy, and we plan on letting them have it. We will throw all around the spy and put pressure on their corners and safeties that will be left without an extra coverage defender. However, we also don't want Newton to hesitate to run if the linebacker(s) turn their backs and try to help in coverage. We also want to use Newton's mobility for misdirection. We can use the threat of his running to control the flow of the defense, allowing for against-the-grain throws in wide open space. Finally, we expect for Newton to, of course, use his natural escapability to control Hawaii's pass rush.

Running Backs: We won't forget about running the ball, and we will aim to run the ball on about 35% of plays in an ideal game. Joe Mixon will once again be our feature back with Giovani Bernard spelling him as necessary. We will be draw heavy as we will open with the pass and expect a relentless pass rush. All three of our main passing concepts this week have “check protection” as the first responsibility for the running back before running a route, and we will stick to that. Furthermore, the running back will always check his protection to the right side of our line, as we trust David Bakhtiari to hold the line on the other side.

 

 

 

Defense

Hawaii boasts an outstanding offense with a lot of star power. This isn't an offense that you can completely shut down, but we believe we can contain it enough to allow our offense to win the game.

Bend Don't Break: We want to run a more conservative defense than usual this week. We want to play coverage and play contain, and focus on forcing long third downs and field goals. The primary goal of our three defensive linemen is to play two gaps, contain the run game, and pave the way for our linebackers. We will use Patrick Peterson in single coverage against Antonio Brown, but we will provide safety help to Shaquill Griffin against Stefon Diggs. Michael Davis will cover Josh Gordon. Lorenzo Alexander will cover Ben Watson or whomever Hawaii uses at tight end.

Scheme for Von Miller: Despite our overall conservative nature on defense this week, Von Miller will be aggressive in rushing the passer. He will line up on the left side of the defense and attack the backfield. We expect tight end help on the right side of the Hawaii line, so we will call several twists to try to scheme him one on one against Ben Garland and leave the tight end nearly useless. Since Von is such an elite talent, we also expect him to provide plenty of value in the run game against Saquon Barkley.

Double Team Saquon Barkley: Saquon Barkley is currently one of the most potent threats in football, and we plan on giving him plenty of extra attention. Cory Littleton and Adrian Amos will both be responsible for Barkley in coverage. If the Hawaii tight end is being used solely as an extra blocker for Von Miller, then Lorenzo Alexander will play in the middle as a spy on Russell Wilson.

Tarik Cohen Package: Hawaii has liked to use Tarik Cohen split out wide, and we want to be prepared for it. When Cohen comes onto the field, the appropriate personnel will be replaced by Jordan Poyer, who will take Cohen in man. We think this three safety package will give us the extra agility needed to compete against both the Hawaii running backs.

Red Zone Package: We will also utilize Jordan Poyer in the red zone. In the red zone, we will use a 3 safety Cover-3 scheme as an alternative. This formation will allow us to better crowd the endzone, swarm to the ball with more speed, and force field goals. We believe that a Hawaii field goal in this game is a win for us as we are hoping for a shootout.

Third Down Package: On third down and long, we will shift to a more aggressive and pass rush focused defense. We will take Eddie Goldman off the field for Ryan Kerrigan and rush him aggressively off the edge. We will continue to call twists and stunts to get our edge rushers, especially Von, inside. We will blitz often on third a long, mixing up who we send. We will usually leave Barkley in single coverage while blitzing, occasionally sending an additional man if Ben Watson is not running routes.

[Whicker]

K'Waun Williams was inactive.

[ny92mike]

Okc getting creative with their game plan relying on rub routes to move the chains, but Hawaii in press is a solid counter to this and with the way Cam has been playing, especially last night.  The man looked lost, unexcited and very sloppy.  There is a reason for the drop in OKC's performance over the last few weeks and Cam Newton is a huge part of that which can't be overlooked in this matchup.

Hawaii all day.

[Scoundrel]

Hawaii.

I wish OKC would have ran the ball more to keep the ball away from the talented Hawaii offense. Cam’s struggles of late doom him here as OKC is more pass focused. His mobility will help some but it won’t be enough. Saquon, AB, Diggs and co are too much for the OKC D. The OKC Cinderella ends with a first round exit. 

[bcb1213]

Okc 

5 wide against man blitz/spy when the other team has three healthy corners. Even decrepit cam can beat that 

Hawaii is gonna get theres too but I'm gonna go with the home team here 

Okc 38-35 

[Ragnarok]

It wouldn't be as much as in issue if it was just one bad game, but Cam has been playing very injured and it's effected his ability to throw accurately past 3 yards.  I like OKC's overall gameplan, I just don't think they can execute it with any consistency.  

[SirA1]

OKC

I like the home team with the crowd giving the EF5's an edge.

OKC's OL is dominant and will give Cam the time he needs to get the job done.

OKC 35-28

[Whicker]

9 hours ago, ny92mike said:

Okc getting creative with their game plan relying on rub routes to move the chains, but Hawaii in press is a solid counter to this and with the way Cam has been playing, especially last night.  The man looked lost, unexcited and very sloppy.  There is a reason for the drop in OKC's performance over the last few weeks and Cam Newton is a huge part of that which can't be overlooked in this matchup.

Hawaii all day.

Drop in performance like stomping one of the BizzBowl favorites? My early season team was officially legendary.

[MD4L]

I like the concepts OKC used to get Cam Newton involved. The problem is many of those routes are beyond 10 yards where Newton has been questionable. Hawaii is led by two top flight CB so Newton already faced a difficult matchup when healthy. The best bet would be establishing Joe Mixon more than using the pass, thus it could be an issue scoring points. The Fackrell at ILB thing would’ve also been extremely helpful in OKC direction.

Hawaii meanwhile is as top heavy as any team. Trading pennies for Russell Wilson, keeping high level talents like Clowney, Brown, Lattimore, Heyward, and drafting Barkley (dumbass trades) makes them a load to stop. I think OKC is one of the few teams that can actually do so, but it’s not going to completely suffocate Russell Wilson. Didn’t mentioned Cohen and Diggs, yet those guys are playmakers to the fullest extent.

I think Hawaii pulls this one out. They’re the better team at this point and in spite of  a championship level writeup (I may have been the one to read it), I don’t see those ideas leading to much success against Hawaii’s defense.

[MD4L]

Also, James Daniels is not a scrub by any means. I believe he started slow but I definetly saw him on Sunday Night hold his own against Aaron Donald.

[TedLavie]

Going Hawaii. I thought about giving an autowin to OKC but way I read it is Weddle gets DJ Moore in coverage. It's a mismatch but it's not that bad.

Look Whicker writeup is top notch. I think Hockey will have to up the ante to win it all. But I don't think it was enough.

First of going pass heavy with an injured quarterback and weapons that aren't that good is a tough task. I don't think OKC WRs get open enough and even if they do, not sure Cam can reach them especially on 2nd and 3rd level. 

Second, the ability of Hawaii to rush Cam is interesting. Not super fond of OKC OL save from Bakhtiari and Hudson. With an additional blitzer that pass rush can put pressure on Cam.

Third I simply think OKC lacks talent at specific spots to stay with Hawaii offense.

Hawaii 35-24

[ny92mike]

2 hours ago, Whicker said:

Drop in performance like stomping one of the BizzBowl favorites? My early season team was officially legendary.

We all have injuries and slump weeks. 

[Whicker]

QB