BDL 2018 Quarterfinals: #5 Louisiana Jazz @ #4 Seoul Dragons

[ny92mike]

BDL 2018 Quarterfinals

Match:  Louisiana Jazz @ Seoul Dragons

Away Owner: @WFLukic

Home Owner:  @TedLavie

 

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[ny92mike]

Louisiana Jazz

Offense:

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: Tyler Lockett
TE1: Zach Ertz
TE2: Jared Cook
LT: Russell Okung
LG: Joel Bitonio
C: Ryan Jensen
RG: Connor McGovern
RT: Riley Reiff

RB2: James White
RB3: Nyheim Hines
WR3: Zay Jones
WR4: Equanimeous St. Brown
TE3: Chris Herndon
OL6: Bobby Massie
OL7: Matt Skura
OL8: Jared Veldheer

Defense:

DE: Jason Pierre-Paul
DT: Jurrell Casey
DT: Sheldon Richardson
DE: Dee Ford
LB: Danny Trevathan
LB: Anthony Barr
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: Kyle Fuller
S/LB: Patrick Chung
S: Micah Hyde
FS: Tre Boston

DE3: Jabaal Sheard
DE4: Vinny Curry
DT3: Johnathan Hankins
DT4: David Onyemata
LB3: Todd Davis
CB3: Orlando Scandrick
CB4: Justin Coleman
S3: Duron Harmon

 

 

Seoul Dragons

QB Matt Ryan

RB Jordan Howard

WR TY Hilton (Q)

WR Tyrell Williams

TE Travis Kelce

TE Gerald Everett

LT Ronnie Stanley

LG Mike Person

OC Alex Mack

RG Kevin Zeitler

RT Rodger Saffold

 

Bench RB Kenyan Drake (Q)

Bench RB Wayne Gallman

Bench RB Kalen Ballage

Bench WR Danny Amendola (Q)

Bench WR Keke Coutee (Q)

Bench WR Antonio Callaway

Bench TE Antonio Gates

Bench OC David Andrews

 

LOLB Bradley Chubb

LDT Geno Atkins

NT Steve McLendon

RDT Gerald McCoy (Q)

ROLB Melvin Ingram

ILB Shaq Thompson

SS Anthony Harris

SS Justin Reid

CB Darius Slay

CB Kendall Fuller

FS Marcus Williams

 

Bench DE Chris Long

Bench DE Romeo Okwara

Bench DT Xavier Williams

Bench LB Jordan Hicks (Q)

Bench LB Donta’ Hightower

Bench LB Nigel Bradham

Bench CB Pierre Desir

Bench CB Levi Wallace

[ny92mike]

Louisiana Jazz

Offense:

As we’re now into the colder winter months in Seoul and it’s playoff football, running the ball is going to be foundational point of our offense. We know that our offensive line can get onto the front foot and generate a lot of momentum and we’ve got arguably best runner between the tackles between the league in Elliott behind them. Elliott ideally will get between 20-25 carries, and more if we get a lead as we look to keep the ball out of Seoul’s hands and limit the explosive big plays. By opening up with our usual 2 TE set, we know we’ve got the troops to get the ball rolling and Elliott’s ability to pick up yardage after contact will give us the opportunity for manageable 3^rd downs and help us sustain drives and maintain possession.

We also want to point out that Seoul’s defensive front is quite top heavy – while their front 4 are capable of playing plenty of snaps, can they do so against a fierce run blocking OL with Zeke pounding into them snap after snap? It’s to be seen, but at the very least it’s certain they won’t be as effective when it comes to rushing the passer and that, combined with these hopefully sustained drives should give us a huge boost.

Of course, should Seoul sell out against the run, we’re not too concerned. Lockett will reprise his usual role as our deep threat, and likely matched up against an injured Kendall Fuller we like our changes. In any case, whichever CB he’s up against we know that his speed down field will attract deep coverage and single-handedly open up the underneath for our RBs, TEs and Michael Thomas. Should Lockett be left in single coverage, even against Darius Slay, we’re confident enough to toss it up and hope he comes down with it.

Thomas despite who gets assigned to him will be targeted often and we know that he can beat any corner 1v1, including Slay. If Seoul wants to put double coverage on Thomas, the plan is to have him run crosses and slants predominantly to take that second defender out of the equation, whereas if he’s in single, the plan is to get him going on come-backs and deeper crossing routes and have that physical style come through with both contested catches and the YAC ability.

Ertz and Cook will play the majority of snaps together, but will shift from in-line to outside quite often as we look to drag the safeties and LBs away from the LOS. In particular, we’ll look to have them line-up together on one side, with this giving us an opening to run the ball to the opposing side and get Elliott into space and able to use his punishing style against Seoul’s CBs.

Lastly, the plan is to utilise James White quite heavily in this game and alongside Elliott as well – with both operating out of the backfield, or White moving outside for quick screens as we look to get the TEs outside blocking for him or him working in the slot. He’s not dynamic, but getting the ball to him between 5-10 times, even at 6-7 yards a pop will fall into our plan of moving the ball incrementally and keeping things manageable.

Defense:

With AJ Green out and TY Hilton hobbled, we know that the key to the game is shutting down Travis Kelce and ultimately shutting down the Seoul passing attack.

The Drake/Howard combination doesn’t particularly bother us, allowing us to go a bit lighter with Dee Ford on the DL to bolster the pass-rush. With that said, we’ll rotate heavily as always with Onyemata, Hankins and Sheard all getting a large amount of snaps and in particular we’ll go with line-ups which feature Ford, Sheard and JPP all rushing off the edge. Also big time JPP revenge game against Seoul who traded him for just a 7^th. HA.

If Hilton Plays:

Anthony Barr on Kelce, with Patrick Chung shadowing.
Kyle Fuller on Hilton.
Stephon Gilmore on Tyrell Williams.
Trevathan on Everett.
Hyde watching the backfield, with Boston deep.
 

If Hilton doesn’t play, Gilmore will take Kelce along with Chung and one of the other CBs will sub-in to take Amendola/Callaway, which isn’t a particularly threatening matchup. Fuller will go onto Tyrell.

In any case, we want to try and double Kelce all over the field and not give him any chance. If Seoul wants to chuck it up deep to Tyrell Williams with him coverage against a ballhawk like Fuller, while another ballhawk in Boston floats deep, we’re more than happy for them to do so. We want them to take deep shots and we want to force turnovers and control the ball – if Seoul happens to take their deep shots and hit all of them and we lose, such is life. We know that won’t be the case though and these risky plays will result in incompletions and turnovers, which will feed into our heavy run/short passing game.

 

Seoul Dragons

Offense

Involve the running game. This week we are going to run a more balanced offense. Jordan Howard has found his groove recently and has been well rested this year as he’s rotated a lot. He will get the majority of carries with Drake rotating in as the change of pace back. If Drake is out, we will give a few carries to Ballage see if he can be effective and adjust accordingly. We are going to run mainly outside, on JPP/Ford side as this seems like the weak spot of that DL against the run. Expect tosses and off tackles runs. We will use stretch plays or pull a guard out to be even more effective there.

Isolate Kelce. Travis Kelce is unblockable 1vs1 and no Louisiana defender stand a chance. We fully expect him to be double teamed. If he’s not or if Louisiana plays zone, then he’s our #1 target on most plays and should receive around 15 targets. Louisiana might want to put Gilmore on him, but he doesn’t have the size to cover him on high balls and, if Gilmore is indeed on Kelce, we will motion Kelce back in line and run straight at him. If he is indeed double teamed, then having Kelce isolated outside will lighten the box of 2 players. That’s a big advantage for our run game and if that’s the case, expect more running plays on a 6 vs 6 box. 

Target Louisiana linebackers in the passing game. Louisiana lacks a quality defender at the LB position. If Everett is 1vs1 vs a LB in man, he will be targeted. If Louisiana chooses to run zone, then we’re back to Kelce, and we will also involve a lot Hilton in the middle of the field. If Louisiana plays 2 LB, one on the Kelce double team and one on a RB, we will look to split that RB out of the backfield or have them run wheel routes and give that matchup a go, as neither Barr not Trevathan have the speed to match up vs our guys. This would mainly work with Drake (Gallman if Drake's out). Therefore, while Howard gets the majority of the carries, his snap count will be more balanced with our 2 other guys who will be more involved in the passing game. Expect also some 3TE looks with Gates (even more so if Drake is out). The more LBs we see on the field for Louisiana, the better we feel about our passing game

Give Hilton a chance. TY Hilton will likely be covered by one of the Jazz top 2 corners. We still would like to involve him. We will have run crossing patterns in the middle the field in case Louisiana runs zone D. We will use him out of the slot in 3WR sets to put Fuller/Gilmore in a tough spot or to match him up with a lesser corner. But we will also take some shots deep as Gilmore and Fuller, while very good, aren’t exactly lockdown corners and can be beat deep in some instances. We are going to test that. If TY Hilton is out, expect a lot more running game out of our best sets and a lot more passing attempts out of the nickel formations, targeting mainly Kelce and our slot receiver.

Antonio Callaway. Yes Callaway is not what you would call a stud receiver for now. But he can have a role in this one. First of all his blocking skills are interesting and will be used in the running game and in the screen game. Second, his speed can be interesting if he’s lined up against Scandrick, who has struggled at times against speed receivers this year. If we can find the right matchup for him, Ryan can audible the play and give him a 1vs1 matchup deep, and we won’t be afraid to try it. The rest of the receivers will have a different role here. Amendola helps moving the chains out of the slot position. Coutee is the wildcard as he’s often injured, but if he can play at 100%, we will use him a lot out of 3WR sets to match him up vs Scandrick or Coleman. Williams on the other end, if matched up vs Fuller/Gilmore, will mostly run decoy routes to free up another receiver. If matched up against someone else, we will look for him on deep shots.

Protect Matty Ice. Keeping Matt Ryan will be important as always, and we like our OL in this one. Louisiana doesn’t have much of an interior pass rush, but their edge can be scary. Dee Ford (if Lukic finally decides to start his best DLineman) will often be double teamed with the protection shifting to his side. Otherwise we’ll give a shot to our guys 1vs1, and if someone is beat too often, he will receive help. Otherwise Mack is responsible for blitz pickups. If Louisiana starts Dee Ford as a LB, expect additional protection with a TE chip or from a RB as it will mean a safety will be used in man coverage, but also expect a quicker passing game and a lot of motioning Everett / a RB outside to isolate Ford in coverage in a 1vs1 matchup if that’s the case.

 

Defense

Stop the run. In their base set (2TE sets with Cook and Ertz), Louisiana has weak edge blockers (tackles are meh and tight ends are atrocious run blockers) but they have good run mauling guards. We don’t want Zeke to get going at all and adding a NT will help clog up the middle. We think our DL can stop the run at the LoS and that allows our second level defense (Thompson and our 2 SS who will play in box) to be more focused on coverage. 8 men in the box, even with a lighter second level, with a heavy DL is a good recipe against that subpar blocking unit. Xavier Williams will rotate a lot and Chris Long will see some snaps inside if necessary. But if we can force Louisiana to some 3^rdand longs, we will go back to a 4DL set which should allow us to rotate our DTs a bit. We will also have some 4DL sets with an additional LB and both McLendon and Williams inside to stop the run in the middle. Edge players will rotate too with Ingram and Chubb seeing around 70% of the snaps, Long 40% and Okwara 20%. Our OLBs will set the edge in the run game and will keep an eye on end-arounds by Lockett.

Mix coverages. 60% of the time we will run a classic man coverage. Michael Thomas is excellent in contested catches, so we are matching him up with our best playmaker in the secondary in Darius Slay. Kendall Fuller gets Lockett. Both super athletic tight ends will be matched up vs our two strong safeties. And Elliott will be matched up with Thompson. We’re starting Thompson because his athleticism is good matchup for Elliott, who can beat you with his speed and has good hands, but is not a particularly gifted route runner. Marcus Williams will play deep centerfield to prevent any big play. 

On 40% of other cases, we will run zone coverages, from a cover 3 to a disguise cover 2 with a SS dropping back into deep zone. We will also run some Tampa 2 concepts here and there. With pressure in his face, we want Brady to never know what coverage we will run so every Jazz weapons motioning will not be followed around. We expect both our safeties and Thompson to be able to combat the TEs/Zeke so if we have to change our individual matchup in man, we’re ok to do it. If Lockett goes inside Thomas, he will be followed by a safety. Only matchup we’re keeping no matter what is Thomas vs Slay. Disguising our coverage pre-snap could lead to Brady making mistakes.

Pressure Brady. The advantage of going into a heavy DL is we get 1vs1 matchup we really like. We like both our edge players to get to Brady frequently, but we mainly get the dream matchup in Geno vs McGovern. We know Brady struggles with pressure inside and that matchup guarantees in. We will also run some stunts with McCoy and our NT to get McCoy vs Jensen, another matchup we like. On passing downs we can insert Hightower for an inside DL which gives us the ability to blitz out of the LB position or having him drop back into zone if necessary. We will also show some super light looks, on 3^rdand longs only, with McCoy at NT and Long at LDT.

Stay aware of Louisiana bench.Of course Louisiana could start someone else than their expected lineup (after all, they have Dee Ford on the bench in most games). 

In nickel formations, our NT leaves the field for Desir, who starts outside with Fuller inside. If Desir is vs Lockett, M.Williams shades towards that side of the field. In nickel, Harris goes off the field as well for Hicks (Hightower if out) and we will run a more classic 4-2-5 formations with a safety in the box. In nickel formations, edge is set by our SSE and our WLB in the run game. Dime sees Wallace come in inside for Reid. Empty sets with 5WR see dime formations with zone coverage.

Whenever James White plays with Zeke, he’s followed around by Fuller, with Desir outside (and M.Williams going to his side if vs Lockett) who comes in for Reid. If he plays in the backfield, then Fuller will be in the box which shouldn’t hurt us since White will not be a run blocker. If he’s split out, then it’s your aforementioned nickel formation except Harris is on the field for Hicks/Hightower. If Louisiana runs a weird 3RB formations, it doesn’t change anything with Fuller on White and Harris on Hines.

We’ve also prepared for Josh Allen gadget plays. If he comes in, Hicks (Bradham if out) comes in for our NT and spys him with the defense more oriented to stop the run. If Louisiana wants to beat us through the air with Josh Allen instead of Brady they’re free to try it, but we think he will be used as a runner mostly and if we have to go cover 0 to stop him, we will do.
Finally, for heavier sets (blocking TE or additional OTs), we will swap Reid and/or Harris with our bench linebackers to combat the run.

[TedLavie]

3 hours ago, ny92mike said:

likely matched up against an injured Kendall Fuller

I don't appreciate this @WFLukic. You have been in the league long enough to know in-game injuries don't count. 

[Whicker]

Damn and I thought for sure I'd have the longest gameplan this week

[TedLavie]

6 hours ago, Whicker said:

Damn and I thought for sure I'd have the longest gameplan this week

It's playoff time in Seoul

[WFLukic]

11 hours ago, TedLavie said:

I don't appreciate this @WFLukic. You have been in the league long enough to know in-game injuries don't count. 

Honestly, I know he had surgery but didnt know it was not pre-existing.

Happy to edit that out. Sorry.

[ny92mike]

I just don't think that Howard and Drake are playing well enough to be considered a threat.  With WFlukic focusing his attention on the real threats, he's able to limit the passing game and walk away a winner.

 

[WFLukic]

Yo Casey and Richardson aren't Donald and Watt but it's a stretch to say they aren't much of an interior rush. Casey's been one of the best interior rDL in the league for years now and Richardson's more than capable.

[TedLavie]

3 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Yo Casey and Richardson aren't Donald and Watt but it's a stretch to say they aren't much of an interior rush. Casey's been one of the best interior rDL in the league for years now and Richardson's more than capable.

Both have had less impact in recent years as pass rushers. I'm confident in my guards ability to handle them

[bcb1213]

I like both teams plans and outside the box 5-1-5 big nickel is a unique defense but I think the jizz just barely survive here.  Shockingly I think Callaway gets a big play or two but eventually Seoul gets worn down here 

Louisiana 17-14

[Ragnarok]

Really well done by each team, but I just don't see Seoul's playmakers doing enough right now.  I think they keep it close, but don't have the consistency to pull ahead.

[Scoundrel]

I wish OKC had the Jazz offensive game plan in their matchup. I really like what the Jazz are doing in this game. Seoul is limited and I like what they are attempting but I don’t think they execute it how they want. Howard isn’t enough to carry that ground game. I appreciate the detail of Ted but I just don’t think they have enough to win. 

[SirA1]

This will likely go down as one of the worst injury years ever in the BDL.

Lou 21-14

[pheltzbahr]

Nice effort by Seoul here, but not enough weapons to keep up with LoosyAnna.  Lukic had a great game plan, but got lucky running into a hobbled preseason favorite.