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The Redskins 6-3 Record was Fool's Gold


MKnight82

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Redskins @ Cardinals, 24-6 W - Win over 3-11 team

Colts @ Redskins, 21-9 L - Lost to 8-6 team

Packers @ Redskins, 31-17 W - Win over 5-8-1 team

Redskins @ Saints, 43-19 L - Lost to 11-2 team

Panthers @ Redskins, 23-17 W - Won over 6-7 team

Cowboys @ Redskins, 20-17 W - Won over 8-6 team

Redskins @ Giants, 20-13 W - Won over 5-9 team

Falcons @ Redskins, 38-14 L - Lost to 5-9 team

Redskins @ Buccaneers, 16-3 W - Won over 5-9 team

 

The 6 wins the Redskins had early in the year now have a combined 32-50-1 record.  The only win the Redskins had over a team with a winning record was the Cowboys, who we beat at home in a rivalry game by 3 points.  Also, the Cowboys only have a winning record after being the last team standing in a weak NFCE this year (someone has to win the division games).  

 

We played only 3 teams that will make the playoffs during that span (the Cowboys, Saints and Colts) and our combined score against those teams would have been 48-81. 

 

We were never a good team, we just beat up on some really poor competition early on.  

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I thought this was known?

Look, Alex Smith will make you not lose against non-elite talent. He isn't going to be dynamic. He won't be elite. The plan on offense was ball control and grinding out games. And in today's NFL, that's not going to do much, particularly against good teams.

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49 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

All's I wants to knows is -- whur do we'uns draft at 7-9.. Like 12th, 13th?

Best case:

  • One of the following two teams wins out
    • Atlanta (at Carolina, at Tampa Bay)
    • Tampa Bay (at Dallas, vs Atlanta)
    • Arguably, you probably should be rooting for Tampa Bay because they have a much higher SoS value right now than Washington. Atlanta's is somewhat closer (albeit larger than Washington's) and could give them the draft order tiebreaker.
    • It's possible they could tie in week 17, in which case both teams would have a worse record than Washington.
  • One of the following two teams wins out
    • Detroit (vs Minnesota, at Green Bay)
    • Green Bay (at NY Jets, vs Detroit)
    • Arguably, you probably should root for the Packers in this case because not only would they have a better record, they would be out of the 7-9 grouping due to their tie (thus creating a higher floor for rounds 2-7).
  • NY Giants win out (at Indianapolis, vs Dallas)
  • Buffalo wins out (at New England, vs Miami)
  • Denver wins 1 of 2 (at Oakland, vs LA Chargers), preferably both
  • Cincinnati wins 1 of 2 (at Cleveland, at Pittsburgh), preferably both
  • Carolina wins both tonight's game and Week 17's rematch with New Orleans (but lose to Atlanta next week)
  • Cleveland wins 1 of 2 (vs Cincinnati, at Baltimore), preferably Baltimore
  • Miami beats Jacksonville in week 16 but loses to Buffalo in week 17

 

Also, in your scenario, Philadelphia would have defeated Washington so they would have a better record.

 

If all of that comes to pass, the Redskins could be drafting as high as 8th (the order inside of their groups is based on the SoS right now, as I don't want to bother calculating each team's potentials ... they shouldn't change too much this late in the season):

6. Atlanta 6-10
7. Detroit 6-10
8. Washington 7-9
9. Tampa Bay 7-9
9. NY Giants 7-9
10. Buffalo 7-9
11. Green Bay 7-8-1
12. Cleveland 7-8-1
13. Miami 8-8
14. Carolina 8-8
15. Denver 8-8
16. Cincinnati 8-8    // Philly could be in the 8-8 category (if they lose to Houston next week), in the non-playoff 9-7 territory if they win, or in the playoff territory if they win out and Dallas loses out (in this latter case, Dallas would be somewhere in this category)

 

I'll leave it to you to assess how likely that exacta is. More likely, a 7-9 record would put Washington around the 10-12 range.

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44 minutes ago, mar29020 said:

a healthy redskins team is a 9 to 10 win football team.

Given that there is a small, but non-zero chance, that Washington could still end up at 9-7, that's not a rousing endorsement of the roster quality and/or the coaches.

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9 minutes ago, Woz said:

Given that there is a small, but non-zero chance, that Washington could still end up at 9-7, that's not a rousing endorsement of the roster quality and/or the coaches.

Wrong! Considering the injuries --It is !! ( Well-- it would be :S )

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Just now, RSkinGM said:

Wrong! Considering the injuries --It is !! ( Well-- it would be :S )

If they finish 9-7 with this cast off crew and should have finished with 0-1 more wins had they been healthy? Only four teams had weaker schedules this year (using tankathon's SOS numbers) than Washington's 0.475: Chicago (0.433), Miami (0.460), Houston (0.467), and Indianapolis (0.469).

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On 12/17/2018 at 2:16 PM, mar29020 said:

a healthy redskins team is a 9 to 10 win football team.

This, before Alex, CT, Crowder PRich, the OL and to a lesser extent Colt got hurt the Redskins we’re going to win 9 games, maybe even 10 with a few breaks going out way in a game. 

Now, Without their top 2 QBs and especially their top QB & team leader, the team has fallen apart; will probably finish 7-9 and is lucky they didn’t lose out and finish 6-10 after Alex’s injury.

I think that just proves what Alex meant to this team. 

6-3 w/him and probably 1-6 w/o him.

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On 12/17/2018 at 2:16 PM, mar29020 said:

a healthy redskins team is a 9 to 10 win football team.

And that is the problem.  We haven't won 11 games in 27 years, the longest such stretch in the NFL.  We need to be finished with mediocrity and focus on putting a team out there that is drafted well, a system that develops players and can sustain long-term success.  

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5 hours ago, turtle28 said:

This, before Alex, CT, Crowder PRich, the OL and to a lesser extent Colt got hurt the Redskins we’re going to win 9 games, maybe even 10 with a few breaks going out way in a game. 

So, an entirely healthy team is competing for either the weakest division crown or the 2nd wildcard ... kind of like they are now.

In other words, the healthy talent is no better than the replacement players that the team brought in to fill the roster when they left?

Is that what you're saying?

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