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2018 draft thread - still sucking a decade later

Its A Sabotage

By Its A Sabotage
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On 2/21/2018 at 10:04 AM, DuvalsKing said:

Have you like what you've seen so far? Pro's/con's i'm talking just in his game. Not potential if the Jags will get him or not just visually in his game what is he good with? What does he struggle with?

The problem with Lamar Jackson, is basically that he's a fantastic runner of the football.  Like @.Buzz suggested, the notion of Jackson having to make a position change is pretty laughable.  Especially in this QB-starved league.  But he is very raw and super inconsistent as a passer.  He's got a good arm, but it's all arm.  He just sorta whips the ball around...the footwork often doesn't even really exist, which makes the accuracy wildly unpredictable.  Makes for a great highlight reel, but pretty pretty lackluster snap-to-snap consistency.

Essentially, because he's such a talented (and prolific) runner...he spends every game facing stacked boxes that really "simplify" the game for him.  He doesn't have to be so precise, make the sophisticated reads, or play with great rhythm and anticipation because of what his legs open up for him downfield.  Yet even with that, and in a sorta gimmicky QB-run heavy offense, he still doesn't manage particularly high completion rates.  For context...even with his improvement as a passer, he's still sporting a completion percentage significantly lower than other wonders Petrino has most recently produced...Brian Brohm, Tyler Wilson (who was eventually cut a handful of times and exposed as a guy who simply couldn't grasp an NFL playbook), and Brandon Doughty.

He's basically down there in the inaccuracy category with much-maligned Josh Allen, while playing a far less sophisticated system, and with more route-running and pass-catching talent to work with.

The idea of him coming in and continuing to use his legs to run all over the place and simplify the passing game by drawing stacked boxes makes a lot of sense.  It'll make the transition easier for him in that sense.  Plenty of guys have come in and done that to have an early impact.  I just have a hard time seeing how a guy with that light frame is going to stand up to the punishment of that style of quarterbacking for an extended period.  It just opens up so much more injury risk.  How many guys actually manage to pull off the running QB thing with longevity, even with more robust frames?  Cam Newton the hulking mountain of a man who still consistently seems to get banged up?  Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers who are really more scramblers than runners?  The rest of the recent top QB rusher list is just littered with flash in the pan guys, or mediocre or worse guys.  Yet, if you take away a lot of that rushing aspect to Jackson's game...you're taking away a big part of what makes him special and might make him a worthwhile high pick in the first place.

Not to mention the fit here.  Where any QB is going to see stacked boxes anyway.  And where we're already committed to Bortles this year anyway, and you'd be burning a year on the sweet value rookie deal of a running QB.

 

On 2/23/2018 at 6:50 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Has Josh Allen become so hated that he is underrated? Seems like the typical size/big arm guy but not much else

I think there's probably a massive disconnect between the unabashed hate he tends to get here, on the twitter, etc. all across the internet...and what NFL Execs think of him.  Around here, you'd get the impression Allen is quite the useless scrub, lucky to be drafted in the 4th round.  NFL execs are almost certainly higher on him than that.  A LOT higher.  So much higher that he's likely not even a serious topic of consideration for the Jaguars given where we're picking late in the 1st round.  But...in the event he is...i think i'd actually be a bit disappointed if we didn't take that swing.

He's a pretty flawed prospect, but he also has a ton going for him.  He's not a Lynch/Hackenberg/Osweiler "oooooooooooo so tall" *doe eyes* guy with clumsy slow feet, a big ugly release, and nothing else going for him.

First and foremost obviously, he has elite arm talent.  As in not just good...he'll probably have Top-3 natural arm talent in the NFL the day he's drafted.  You can't teach that.  And it's not just raw power, it's the way he gets the ball out.

He's also got comparable size, escapability, improvisational capacity and ability to get the ball out on the run to our very own "Our Guy" Blake Bortles.  An even more athletic runner when called upon.  He's coming out of an offense that asked him to do a lot of things that will give him a real leg up on learning an NFL system.  And the arm talent is in a completely different stratosphere to Bortles.  It gives him the ability to make throws to the boundary that ended up in constant pick-6s with Bortles.

He does also have a potentially catastrophic hero complex (like Bortles), where he doesn't know when to live another down.  Trusts his arm way too much and forces things that sometimes end really badly when he should've just tossed it away.  Doesn't always have great touch on "easy" throws, and his placement can be imprecise and force adjustments his Wyoming friends aren't remotely capable of making.  He's also less "likeable" as a personality than Big Game Bobby Bortles, with a less commanding presence.

Basically...my comp, and i'm sticking by it...is that he's a bigger, potentially more durable Jay Cutler...if he'd come out earlier, with way less experience under his belt.  He's far from a sure thing, and it'd scare the bejeepers out of me to actually draft him high with my career on the line.  But if he falls to the Jaguars pick?  I'd want to take a shot.

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On 2/24/2018 at 6:28 PM, LinderFournette said:

sign me in for falk, White, laulatta in round 3

I don't mind Falk or White as far as mid round project types go.  They're two of the guys i'm more interested in really.  But they both kinda have battered QB syndrome. 

Luke Falk has probably the best placement, touch, and anticipation with the short+intermediate passing game in this draft, and (apparently) has a great understanding of the game with a relentless work ethic.  Plus, meets those arbitrary QB threshold metrics or whatever.  But his pocket presence is very bad.  And he's been knocked around an awful lot in college as a result.  Moving him under center (where he didn't play in college) and behind an NFL line rushed by NFL defenders, i really don't know what happens...but it's probably not great.  It's a concern.  That's going to be a big adjustment, and he'll be relegated to a very "Alex Smith-esque" dink and dunk style offense even at his best.

Mike White is interesting because he's got some serious arm talent and plenty of flashes of real upside.  He's more like the real "Paxton Lynch" type projection of this draft i think, but will go a lot later.  It's hilarious watching a lot of his 2017 games.  He's just under constant siege and doesn't have the feet to get out of trouble in the first place.  Combined with a release that can be a bit slow at times.  He's that big traditional pocket statue with a great arm, about the least prepared to handle a terribad OLine.  Makes a lot of mistakes falling away from plays because he's about to get smooshed again.  Looks like he's got some Gabbert-esque pocket presence as a result. If you can rebuild him, he has the tools to be something...but it'll be a heck of a project.

Round 3 sounds a bit too early for either really.  Though with the way QBs go...maybe that's about where you'd have to grab them.  They're both in the same cluster as Rudolph for me.

 

Kyle Lauletta on the other hand seems like a total bum with a wet noodle for an arm.  He's got a bit of athleticism and can sometimes scramble around to create things...but his arm strength looks absolutely dismal, on top of already being a shorter QB with a lower release.  Just look at the trajectory he sends his passes on.  It's like mortar fire.  He's a CFL guy sooner or later.

 

Riley Ferguson is a lot more interesting to me as a later round guy.  Awful annoying gimmicky offense, and scary thin build a bit like Lamar Jackson.  Also seems to think he's a lot more athletic than he actually is.  But he has interesting arm talent and executes really well within that stupid system when he's just tossing the ball around the yard.  Very natural.  Massive project though, just in getting some bulk on and learning a real system, if nothing else.  The sort of guy you keep around more as a 3rd QB if you're going to delve that deep into the draft to grab a project.  

 

12 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

hes not that bad TBH. 

I mean, Josh Allen is kinda that bad tbh.  But he's also sorta not.  You have to squint really hard to see the upside.  But it's there for sure.  A lot of potential for things to go catastrophically awry though.  Especially considering how high he's likely to actually be drafted.

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7 hours ago, VLoo said:

The thing with Josh Allen is that if you look at a highlight reel, he's a 1st overall pick. But if you actually watch him play, you could argue he's a UDFA.

I'd say for me at least, it's actually more like...if you look at the stat sheet, you could argue he's an UDFA.  But when you actually watch him, you can see the traits that could make him a good starter.  He doesn't look on the field, like a Christian Hackenberg or whatever...who has no clue, and no hope.  He's got some serious flaws, but more than anything...It's just his stats and measurables that resemble that failure archetype of plateau'd development and low completion %.

7 hours ago, iPwn said:

So Gabbert+?

The thing with Gabbert was that he had the pocket presence of a deer in headlights, and was terrified of taking risks with the ball or hitting tight windows, to the extreme that it actually made for constantly dangerous and ineffective overly conservative decisions and throws.  If he didn't have those catastrophic flaws...he'd probably be a pretty good QB.  xD

Whereas Josh Allen definitely isn't afraid to take risks with the ball and trusts his arm too much.  He's got that early Bortles gunslinger mentality.  And looks far more comfortable than Gabbert throwing on the run when he's flushed from the pocket.

Other than both being tall white guys with a big arm...he's a pretty polar opposite prospect to Gabbert imo.

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10 hours ago, .Buzz said:

Wynn's measurements are really intriguing.  Despite only being 6-2 and change, he actually came in with slightly longer arms, and a noticeably bigger wingspan than Connor Williams, who is still being looked at by plenty of people as a potential Tackle.

Would make for some pretty swell versatility if he could play Guard or kick out to Tackle (which he played well at with Georgia).

 

Though Connor Williams coming in with some disappointing length could be good for us too.  If he slips a bunch in the draft as a result, i'd be down for picking him up.  If he can hack it at RT, that's great.  If not...he still should be a decent OG prospect.

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