2018 draft thread - still sucking a decade later

[.Buzz]

1 minute ago, Speedyg said:

I don't necessarily mean production starting wise, though I can see how that can be taken since I don't think I made it very clear.

The team is very deep and they pretty much positioned our roster in a way that we can go whatever position because we don't have many needs.

What I meant to say is that, finding a TE who can give us 25/400/5 is not that difficult and that we can grab one probably mid 4th that will be more than capable of being #2 behind ASJ as they develop.

Whereas, players at OT, corner, pass rushers I feel we need to take one in 1st and 2nd.

Fair, but if they feel strongly about one of these guys being a playmaker/safety blanket for our QB for the next 5+ years I can get their thinking. I'd prefer to go elsewhere, just saying I can see why they may go that route.

Another mock to take a look at:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-final-2018-mock-draft/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

This guy did VERY well predicting last year's draft.

[.Buzz]

Seems like OL, WR, or TE will be the move to me.

[Speedyg]

14 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Fair, but if they feel strongly about one of these guys being a playmaker/safety blanket for our QB for the next 5+ years I can get their thinking. I'd prefer to go elsewhere, just saying I can see why they may go that route.

Another mock to take a look at:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-final-2018-mock-draft/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

This guy did VERY well predicting last year's draft.

Absolutely. If you can get a Gronk or Gates there? Absolutely. 

But as has been kind of the point of debate:

1. I don't think there is that player there 

2. You have to make sure you tailor your offense if you take that player

3. I think most will agree there is wide variance on TE 1-2-3 ranking depending on what flavor you want, and I'm not sure 4 (Andrews) is that far off.

[.Buzz]

Just now, Speedyg said:

Absolutely. If you can get a Gronk or Gates there? Absolutely. 

But as has been kind of the point of debate:

1. I don't think there is that player there 

2. You have to make sure you tailor your offense if you take that player

3. I think most will agree there is wide variance on TE 1-2-3 ranking depending on what flavor you want, and I'm not sure 4 (Andrews) is that far off.

Although I agree with the latter, it seems like Coughlin/Marrone has a very narrow taste in TE's. A guy who hasn't shown blocking skills/lacks a willingness to block is probably off their board/not being seriously considered. Hurst is an all-around guy that they seem to really want. 

 

[.Buzz]

If you all had to guess, who are the 3 most likeliest options at 29 in your estimation?

I think mine would be:

Hayden Hurst

Isaiah Wynn

DJ Moore

Outside of those three, Goedert/Connor Williams/Courtland Sutton imo.

What's with all the DJ Chark hype? I've seen quite a bit of guys link him to us as well.

[Speedyg]

2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Although I agree with the latter, it seems like Coughlin/Marrone has a very narrow taste in TE's. A guy who hasn't shown blocking skills/lacks a willingness to block is probably off their board/not being seriously considered. Hurst is an all-around guy that they seem to really want. 

 

I'd agree with that. I think Tom and Doug has been consistent (all the way to when Julius lost snaps after Hackett took over) that the TE primarily must be able to block.

To me, that means if TE is in play at 29...its Hurst or Dallas.

But I also take it (I think Tom was the one who said it), that it might mean taking a bigger guy that isn't quite as fast. So kind of going back to my previous points, why would you spend a 29th pick on a tight end if all you're going to ask of him is run block?

There are plenty of guys like that. Traditionally, the tight end that gets drafted high is because you see him as a weapon in the passing game.

So unless they feel this TE will just demolish players in run blocking while still being a weapon as a receiver? I don't think they value it as much.

To add to that, I think Doug mentioned that the 2nd TE if you're going to have out there as a weapon essentially replaces a slot receiver so if he's there for passing, then he needs to be better than a slot receiver (which for us would be a Cole/Dede type).

To me, all of that means that they want to run the football first and foremost (OL especially if u can improve Cann and provide security for Parnell), and later rounds they'd like to add another blocking tight end who can run a bit.

That said, if a pass catching TE slips late? Like if Gesicki is still there somehow in the 3rd? I'm not sure they pass that up and just hope they can coach him.

The NFL has plenty of "college receiving tight ends" that weren't effective receivers in Nfl but turned into good blockers.

There's rarely a blocker only in college that developed into a dynamic receiver.

[Speedyg]

I think its OL, TE depending on who is there and what type TC/Doug wants.

I wouldn't be surprised if we went defense (end, tackle, corner, safety) over receiver.

I just do not buy the receiver talk...at all.

[.Buzz]

7 minutes ago, Speedyg said:

I think its OL, TE depending on who is there and what type TC/Doug wants.

I wouldn't be surprised if we went defense (end, tackle, corner, safety) over receiver.

I just do not buy the receiver talk...at all.

Considering what has transpired this offseason I tend to agree (clearly showing a lesser value for the WR position than most, seem to be fine with more #2/#3's than a top end guy, etc.), but man has there been so many links. Most every person that has talked about us has us taking Moore/Sutton/Chark.

[Tugboat]

19 hours ago, Speedyg said:

That's really the deal with TE...this is such a deep crop and none of them will unseat ASJ. I know some will disagree, but clearly the team views highly of him enough to let Lewis go. 

I'd be fine with Hernandez/Thomas in rounds 1/2. I do agree that we can find better value in the 3rd round than a 2-down backer.

Yeah.  I don't mind going LBer there, actually makes plenty of sense to me...i just don't think Kiser is the right fit.  Unless we really want to continue some wonky LBer shuffle by putting a thumper like Kiser in the middle on certain downs, then shuffling things around when he's pulled off the field on later/passing downs and packages.  But i think that'd be something that's ideally avoided...by just getting a guy who plugs in nicely as a SAM from the get go.  Though a bit of utility to move inside in the case of injuries/etc. wouldn't hurt.

 

5 hours ago, .Buzz said:

SAM is not going to be on the field much. Parnell was very solid last year and is a key vet, I'd be very surprised to see him unseated. I think there's a better chance of a rookie making the top 3 at WR then unseating a stable guy like Parnell.

I don't know about that.  All said and done, between intended snaps and injury shuffling, Poz as our "3rd LBer" ended up playing just a bit under 50% of the defensive snaps for us.  More than a guy like Fowler for instance.  I think there are plenty of potential snaps there to justify a reasonably high pick.  Granted, probably not a 1st rounder, but one of our first 3 or 4 picks wouldn't be a bad idea.  Hopefully getting a "starter" there, even if it's at a position that comes off the field half the time.  Plus, you're gonna get some quality ST utility out of an athletic LBer.

With TE that we're zeroing in on, our #2 guy was under 40% of offensive snaps, and the #3 guy was ~20%.  And that was behind old man Marcedes.  So i don't necessarily think it'd be that far off in terms of utilization to grab a 3rd LBer with a Top-100 type pick, if not a 2nd if the right guy is there.

 

4 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

sam could be on the field more if they get a guy kinda like Bruce irvin. i still wonder why we havent tried Fowler out as a sam lber. gets him on the field more and allows us to scheme him into pressures. 

This is certainly one possibility as well.  Going more toward that hybrid type who can play LBer most downs, but kick down and get some pass rushing work to bolster their snap count on obvious passing situations.

I'm not sure how many of those guys there are that i like in this draft though.  Uchenna Nwosu (USC) is interesting, and i recall us being linked there.  Not entirely sold on how he'd handle coverage and pure LBer duties in space, but he's got the pass rushing skillset.  Hercules Mata'afa (Wazzu) would be a really interesting one if they wanted to get extra funky in finding a guy snaps.  I think he's probably an ILB thumper convert, but he's a guy you could actually kick down to DT in obvious passing situations and let him go to town as a penetrating disruptive guy.  Getting his roles figured out and trained up as a LBer will be a real project though since he's converting from Interior DLine.  His coverage skills for instance, are not really extant at the moment.

 

Digging into the LBers more over the last while, it's actually a much stronger/deeper class than my initial impressions.  Pretty long list of guys i really like at various points in the draft who are probably more conventional 4-3 LBer fits who still have a little bit of stand up pass rushing ability, and can be great blitzers, but aren't going to kick down with their hand in the dirt.

Malik Jefferson (Texas) is a splendid athlete who could probably play all 3 LBer spots for us, and makes some real splash plays.  I'd be so stoked if he slipped to our late 2nd rounder.  I probably wouldn't even be upset at 29 tbh.

Leon Jacobs (Wisconsin) looks like a terrific SLB fit for us.  Has the speed we want to keep in our LBer corps, but with some real size.  Don't think he's good enough as a pass rusher to be considered highly there for 3-4 teams, but he has more rush ability than the average off ball LBer and can hold up on the edge.

Genard Avery (Memphis) has like kung fu movie violent hands and is a nasty blitzer.  I think he could play SLB or even some MLB for us if we needed it.  He caused all sorts of trouble for Kolton Miller (who is getting 1st round hype) as a pass rusher.

Peter Kalambayi (Stanford) looks like a guy who could be a SLB and backup MLB too.  His speed seems kinda hit or miss, but when he's good...he's good, and can actually handle some decent coverage responsibilities.

Then there are the somewhat smaller guys who are less pass rush inclined, but i think would probably still fit into our LBer corps, like:

Tegray Scales (Indiana) who might be able to handle all 3 spots, and probably all 3 downs as needed.  Has the sort of reckless attacking style and pursuit that would be fun.  Makes all sorts of plays.  His teammate Chris Covington is interesting too, but pretty clearly still learning the position after a switch from offense...so he'd probably be more of a project and STer to start.

Jack Cichy (Wisconsin) looks like a really good, versatile LBer when he's healthy.  But he's missed like a hundred and fifty two games over the last couple years with injuries, so idk.  Tough read, but intriguing.

Quentin Poling (Ohio) is a really low profile smaller school guy that impressed me a ton.  Level of competition is obviously suboptimal, and not sure he has the mean streak, but he flies all over the field and clearly stands out at that level.  

 

It's a shame we're not really looking for a WLB, because i absolute adore Fred Warner (BYU) who gives me some real Telvin vibes, and Darius Leonard (SC State) is another one of those guys who just flies around everywhere and makes plays.  Probably both too small and potentially swallowed up in traffic to plug smoothly into our LBing corps though.  Seems like a really good year to be looking for a WILL linebacker though, with a lot of talented speedy littler guys all over the place.

[.Buzz]

@Tugboat regarding SAM LB:

Yeah, Poz ended up with a solid amount of snaps. I think that's more so the rare case of having a guy like Poz who was the veteran leader that most of the guys looked up to while being a beast in the run game. I don't think if we hadn't had Poz we would have seen a guy like Blair Brown getting as many snaps as Poz got. 

Edit: Also, as far as TE snaps, I think having two very talented guys at that position in ASJ + Hurst/Goeddert etc. would alter how those snaps would come out. I think both would see the field quite a bit, although that remains to be seen if it ends up happening.

[Tugboat]

9 hours ago, Speedyg said:

But u have to make a distinction though...

First is 700 yards and 3 TD attainable for a rookie TE? I can't remember which thread but I know at one point I posted rookie stats for TE and they mostly fall below that. If I recall they post similar numbers to what Marcedes did last season.

If so, is that considered an impact player? 

500/4 is the realistic numbers for TE, and that's assuming they are the #1. In a run heavy offense, whoever we take will have to contend in snaps vs ASJ (because blocking is still this team's primary desire out of that position).

Howard is a better prospect (both blocking and receiving) than any of the guys this year, played in a more TE friendly offense/QB and he ended up with 26/432/6.

Lewis had 24/318/5.

Overall our TE(and I'll be generous and include Bohanon in this) got 90 targets last season..combined.

Now we can say maybe they don't use them because we didn't have the "horses", and perhaps that's true.

But based on everything I've seen (and I think BCC looked at past hackett/marrone offenses to look at TE numbers), I don't believe well get the best bang for our buck there if we took one in the 1st round....and this is coming from a guy who wanted Howard last year. 

 

Yeah.  I just look at this TE class and see how many quality guys there are, but lacking that OJ Howard/Evan Engram stud imo at least, and combined with the sort of offense we're running and the way TEs typically take a year or so to really get rolling...I argued it before, but i really think Rnd 2/3 is where they could get a guy with just as much potential and utility for us, with a bit lesser pick.

I actually wouldn't even be surprised if they really liked a guy like Durham Smyth our of Notre Dame who is probably better equipped than most coming out, to step right in as a blocker (which he'd be doing a good deal of the time here), but does seem to have a bit of untapped upside as a receiver.

 

3 hours ago, .Buzz said:

 

Ragnow seems to be getting some heavy 1st round buzz lately.  I think it's justifiable.  If not for that injury, i think he'd probably be a near lock for the 1st.  Ragnow and Price are two of the interior guys i like the most.  Both have the versatility to play C or hold up at G as well.  Could see him slipping into the mix for our pick at 29, among the various other OLine guys for sure.  If he's still there...which it's starting to sound like he might not be.  

[.Buzz]

1 minute ago, Tugboat said:

Yeah.  I just look at this TE class and see how many quality guys there are, but lacking that OJ Howard/Evan Engram stud imo at least, and combined with the sort of offense we're running and the way TEs typically take a year or so to really get rolling...I argued it before, but i really think Rnd 2/3 is where they could get a guy with just as much potential and utility for us, with a bit lesser pick.

I actually wouldn't even be surprised if they really liked a guy like Durham Smyth our of Notre Dame who is probably better equipped than most coming out, to step right in as a blocker (which he'd be doing a good deal of the time here), but does seem to have a bit of untapped upside as a receiver.

 

Ragnow seems to be getting some heavy 1st round buzz lately.  I think it's justifiable.  If not for that injury, i think he'd probably be a near lock for the 1st.  Ragnow and Price are two of the interior guys i like the most.  Both have the versatility to play C or hold up at G as well.  Could see him slipping into the mix for our pick at 29, among the various other OLine guys for sure.  If he's still there...which it's starting to sound like he might not be.  

Wynn/Hernandez/Ragnow would all be A-Ok with me. As well as Connor Williams of course.

I will say, haven't read up/watched Daniels much, has anyone watched much of him?

[Tugboat]

5 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

@Tugboat regarding SAM LB:

Yeah, Poz ended up with a solid amount of snaps. I think that's more so the rare case of having a guy like Poz who was the veteran leader that most of the guys looked up to while being a beast in the run game. I don't think if we hadn't had Poz we would have seen a guy like Blair Brown getting as many snaps as Poz got. 

Edit: Also, as far as TE snaps, I think having two very talented guys at that position in ASJ + Hurst/Goeddert etc. would alter how those snaps would come out. I think both would see the field quite a bit, although that remains to be seen if it ends up happening.

Yeah.  I do think if they spend a top pick on a TE, we'd see those sorta #2+#3 TE snaps amalgamated a bit in that one guy.  But it's still sort of a ~mid-50s% range, which isn't that far out of line with the "3rd LBer" usage.  Unless they just say "screw it, Poz is gone" and drift even further away from even using 3 LBers.  Though in saying the 3rd LBer might see less snaps now that it's not Poz the leader, etc...the flip side is that if it were to end up being a new guy that they also really like, and has less athletic/coverage limitations...it's not unfathomable that they could actually end up sustaining, or even growing the number of "3rd LBer" snaps.

[Tugboat]

2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Wynn/Hernandez/Ragnow would all be A-Ok with me. As well as Connor Williams of course.

I will say, haven't read up/watched Daniels much, has anyone watched much of him?

I'm not really all that high on Daniels, personally.  Lots of rave reviews, but i don't love his play strength.  He's a slick mover and smart, but his tape i've watched is just littered with combo blocks and getting a lot of help.  Which is fine, and probably what you'll see at C most of the time anyway, especially if you're plugging him in betwixt Norwell and Linder...but i think it makes him more of a sort of "Center only" guy.  Just a bit less versatile than some of the other guys i think.  And doesn't strike me as having the sort of big imposing "people mover" quality this staff and team appear to value for what they want to do offensively.

He could be a really good Center for some teams.  Just doesn't seem like as good a fit for us.

[.Buzz]

3 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

I'm not really all that high on Daniels, personally.  Lots of rave reviews, but i don't love his play strength.  He's a slick mover and smart, but his tape i've watched is just littered with combo blocks and getting a lot of help.  Which is fine, and probably what you'll see at C most of the time anyway, especially if you're plugging him in betwixt Norwell and Linder...but i think it makes him more of a sort of "Center only" guy.  Just a bit less versatile than some of the other guys i think.  And doesn't strike me as having the sort of big imposing "people mover" quality this staff and team appear to value for what they want to do offensively.

He could be a really good Center for some teams.  Just doesn't seem like as good a fit for us.

Thanks for the rundown. Kind of figured pretty much exactly what you said considering he's gotten late 1st round buzz but I haven't seen him linked to us once (and it looks like for good reason).