Moretti's Mock 12/20

[moretti19]

3 hours ago, Golfman said:

I'm good with all of this except: no thanks to Kevin White and want my TE to be taller than 6'2. I'd be fine with a TE there, we absolutely need to draft one, but not a guy 6'2. 

EDIT: one other nitpicking thing. I don't see us getting up to the 6th slot in the draft even if we lose both remaining games. 

I think it was a mis print by the guy who wrote his stats, what I read is he is 6’5 and looks it

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, moretti19 said:

I think it was a mis print by the guy who wrote his stats, what I read is he is 6’5 and looks it

He's 6'4-5/8" from the combine.

That's as official as it gets. Do what you will with that info.

[Toddfather]

If White can't run a route he would be useless here. I doubt Aaron would throw to him. 

[pacman5252]

13 hours ago, moretti19 said:

I see where you are coming from on the off-season but what top free agent do you think realistically is coming here?

If White is healthy he could be a very good receiver. Abdullah in a shotgun set could be very good. Ray Is a good piece to have and has talent to rush.

- Ferrel has very good first step and can bend the corner.

- Look at the amount of snaps our D-line guys are playing, we need a good rotation Davis can play nose or 5tech. 

 

Regarding FAs, I’m not going to be the fan calling for a 15m a year, Lawrence add. That is unrealistic. However, we’re going to have 40m in money with no big resigns. We do have a legit shot at landing a starter in their 5th year on a long term deal, or 3rd contract guy. We did this last year with less money in getting wilk and Grahm. There are several capable wrs, half a dozen starting safeties, 10 ol, a few rbs, a few dl that are in this mold that we could land. The guys you are recommending are all never been damaged food plays;

Abdullah is a Viking after being a street fa. He’s a 1 year vet min guy. 

White isn’t anywhere close to the guy coming out of West Virginia anymore. Damaged good. He isn’t much more than a 1 year vet min guy.

.Ray has been a healthy scratch games this year. Maybe he gets 5 mil guaranteed on potential and position but the dude hasn’t been good.

Too much, “if” they become the athletes again they were 5 years ago and finally develop... also under 10m in spending .

 

The draft-

I don’t hate the CF pick, just not my fav.

Davis- I like him and I now we need more of a rotation, but is a dl you are just going to rotate a guy you burn a 1 on? If you just need depth, that sounds like a round 4 pick or a  low level fa add.

[moretti19]

11 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

Regarding FAs, I’m not going to be the fan calling for a 15m a year, Lawrence add. That is unrealistic. However, we’re going to have 40m in money with no big resigns. We do have a legit shot at landing a starter in their 5th year on a long term deal, or 3rd contract guy. We did this last year with less money in getting wilk and Grahm. There are several capable wrs, half a dozen starting safeties, 10 ol, a few rbs, a few dl that are in this mold that we could land. The guys you are recommending are all never been damaged food plays;

Abdullah is a Viking after being a street fa. He’s a 1 year vet min guy. 

White isn’t anywhere close to the guy coming out of West Virginia anymore. Damaged good. He isn’t much more than a 1 year vet min guy.

.Ray has been a healthy scratch games this year. Maybe he gets 5 mil guaranteed on potential and position but the dude hasn’t been good.

Too much, “if” they become the athletes again they were 5 years ago and finally develop... also under 10m in spending .

 

The draft-

I don’t hate the CF pick, just not my fav.

Davis- I like him and I now we need more of a rotation, but is a dl you are just going to rotate a guy you burn a 1 on? If you just need depth, that sounds like a round 4 pick or a  low level fa add.

So I see your point with the free agents. With the D line however, I would honestly be ok drafting either a D line or O line first round every year. Games are won in the trenches and you can never have enough good lineman. A good D line will make the rest of the defense look better.

[Golfman]

11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

He's 6'4-5/8" from the combine.

That's as official as it gets. Do what you will with that info.

Huh? That isn't until Feb/March. 

[AlexGreen#20]

14 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Huh? That isn't until Feb/March. 

Got my threads missed up, was talking about Lazard

[Pugger]

It appears Nasir Adderley is a cousin of Herb so he has to be a Packer.   

[moretti19]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

It appears Nasir Adderley is a cousin of Herb so he has to be a Packer.   

Destiny! hopefully he is better haha

[vegas492]

8 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

Regarding FAs, I’m not going to be the fan calling for a 15m a year, Lawrence add. That is unrealistic. However, we’re going to have 40m in money with no big resigns. We do have a legit shot at landing a starter in their 5th year on a long term deal, or 3rd contract guy. We did this last year with less money in getting wilk and Grahm. There are several capable wrs, half a dozen starting safeties, 10 ol, a few rbs, a few dl that are in this mold that we could land. The guys you are recommending are all never been damaged food plays;

 

Gonna cherry pick your post...apologies in advance.

But about Lawrence...if he's only $15M/year on average, take him.  Lower cap number to start, higher to end, with increases in the cap, I'd do that one.  He's a difference maker on the EDGE.  Not quite Mack, but he isn't far off.  I think he's one of those guys that makes other guys look better.  I don't see enough Clowney on tv to know if he is that way, but I see enough Cowboy games and I really, really like Lawrence.  My fear is that he is closer to $22M/average.  At $20M, that is a hard no from me.  But at $15M?  Oh yah!

You mentioned Shane Ray.  I like him if he's on a doable contract as a third tier edge guy.  There may be upside there.  Certainly not a guy to get the first wave or maybe even second wave of free agent dollars.  But he's one I'd be interested in on a third tier contract, similar to his running mate, Barrett.

[pacman5252]

9 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Gonna cherry pick your post...apologies in advance.

But about Lawrence...if he's only $15M/year on average, take him.  Lower cap number to start, higher to end, with increases in the cap, I'd do that one.  He's a difference maker on the EDGE.  Not quite Mack, but he isn't far off.  I think he's one of those guys that makes other guys look better.  I don't see enough Clowney on tv to know if he is that way, but I see enough Cowboy games and I really, really like Lawrence.  My fear is that he is closer to $22M/average.  At $20M, that is a hard no from me.  But at $15M?  Oh yah!

You mentioned Shane Ray.  I like him if he's on a doable contract as a third tier edge guy.  There may be upside there.  Certainly not a guy to get the first wave or maybe even second wave of free agent dollars.  But he's one I'd be interested in on a third tier contract, similar to his running mate, Barrett.

The point of my Lawrence reference was I'm not calling for a pro bowl in prime signing. With that said, Hunter got 14 a year. I don't think Lawrence is going to get drastically more. He'll get in the 14-17M range depending on the guarantees. He's good, but not a Mack 22-23M.

Ray is signable, because the market for him will be really small and he's not good (healthy scratch, 2 total sacks in the last 2 year, 58 pff grade). The difference between him and a mid round pick isn't much. Reggie Gilbert has been more productive. 

[pacman5252]

8 hours ago, moretti19 said:

So I see your point with the free agents. With the D line however, I would honestly be ok drafting either a D line or O line first round every year. Games are won in the trenches and you can never have enough good lineman. A good D line will make the rest of the defense look better.

I think DL and pass rush are really important too. I think where we disagree is that I don't think we need to burn more than 1 pick on the front 7 at this moment. The DL is deep enough (2 studs, Monty is starting to come on a bit, Lowry is fine, Lancaster might be worth developing... we really don't need much more than another development guy or a replacement level vet that isn't a complete liability in the Quinton Dial mold of a few years ago).

 

We've also completely ignored the O side of the ball the last 4 years and have no pedigree there. The struggles this year shouldn't surprise anytone Our last first rounder on that side was Bulaga which was 2010. Our last second was Adams. We need an OL early bad. We are starting late round grade development prospects at WR, which we need to hedge a bit,  EQ/MVS could more too raw Janis than starters... they never should have gotten this many snaps this year, Rodgers when not targeting Adams, Cob, Allison has like an 85 rating vs 115.

[moretti19]

1 hour ago, pacman5252 said:

I think DL and pass rush are really important too. I think where we disagree is that I don't think we need to burn more than 1 pick on the front 7 at this moment. The DL is deep enough (2 studs, Monty is starting to come on a bit, Lowry is fine, Lancaster might be worth developing... we really don't need much more than another development guy or a replacement level vet that isn't a complete liability in the Quinton Dial mold of a few years ago).

 

We've also completely ignored the O side of the ball the last 4 years and have no pedigree there. The struggles this year shouldn't surprise anytone Our last first rounder on that side was Bulaga which was 2010. Our last second was Adams. We need an OL early bad. We are starting late round grade development prospects at WR, which we need to hedge a bit,  EQ/MVS could more too raw Janis than starters... they never should have gotten this many snaps this year, Rodgers when not targeting Adams, Cob, Allison has like an 85 rating vs 115.

I agree I think the offense needs a makeover with talent. I just honestly don’t see first round receivers in this draft that fit what Rogers likes. These are bigger contested catching guys where I think Rogers prefers guys that create separation. I would 100% be on board drafting a offensive lineman with either first. I am all about the trenches and believe that’s where games are always won.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, pacman5252 said:

The point of my Lawrence reference was I'm not calling for a pro bowl in prime signing. With that said, Hunter got 14 a year. I don't think Lawrence is going to get drastically more. He'll get in the 14-17M range depending on the guarantees. He's good, but not a Mack 22-23M.

Ray is signable, because the market for him will be really small and he's not good (healthy scratch, 2 total sacks in the last 2 year, 58 pff grade). The difference between him and a mid round pick isn't much. Reggie Gilbert has been more productive. 

Who is Hunter?  Am I having a brain fart?

I still don't see how Lawrence doesn't push $20M, either from the 'Boys or the free agent market.  The money is out there.  I don't think he gets Mack money, but I don't think he will be far behind.

Agree about Ray.  I think a signing like him, third tier edge, is good in that he may have more ability to mold than a guy like Gilbert.  It is a nice signing as it should be a low risk deal and have some upside.

[pacman5252]

16 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Who is Hunter?  Am I having a brain fart?

I still don't see how Lawrence doesn't push $20M, either from the 'Boys or the free agent market.  The money is out there.  I don't think he gets Mack money, but I don't think he will be far behind.

Agree about Ray.  I think a signing like him, third tier edge, is good in that he may have more ability to mold than a guy like Gilbert.  It is a nice signing as it should be a low risk deal and have some upside.

Danielle Hunter, the Vikings young stud DE. He got 5 years 72M 40M guaranteed, so 14.4 per year before the season. On the Hunter to Mack scale, he is more Hunter. Maybe he gets 17-20. It doesn't really matter. The point again was though, I don't think/expect us to sign a top tier in prime FA.

Out of the 3 guys the OP had signing, I like Ray the most, since he isn't complete damaged goods (like White and Abdullah). He's still a bust and hasn't shown anything to get excited about. You are hoping to at best get a 2017 Dion Jordon season from him.