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Oregon QB Justin Herbert to return to school for senior season


TheKillerNacho

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54 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Bingo. There was so much negativity around Mahomes (ermagerd, Air Raid QB!) Trubisky (only one year starter!) and Watson (too much talent around him, too many interceptions!)

I'll dig around on the old site, but all three of these QBs were dumped on collectively and our group of experts felt strongly that there were no 1st round guys in the group.

EDIT: 2018 - THE YEAR OF THE QB (and Baker not very highly discussed):

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=588265&start=0

22 pager on Mahomes - you don't get to 22 pages if it's a consensus 1st round/elite talent:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=572819&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15

Here's another one... Various folks (rather smart ones at that) going on about the 2017 class lacking a top guy and it being a "disaster"...

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=585138&start=735

Nobody was high on Trubisky/Mahomes/Watson at the time. Two years later, you have three playoff QBs and an NFL MVP in this group. 

I really don't think you'll be able to say the same thing about the 2018 class next season.

More than that, I think you could easily argue they are 3 of the top 10 QBs in the game.  Also I remember so many saying you should just wait for the 2018 class bc of Darnold, Allen, and Rosen (Mayfield wasnt even in consideration)who were "easily" better prospects than Trubisky, Mahomes, and Watson.  I looked idk about you ET but by the end of the 2017 college season, I thought any of the 3 2017 QBs would have been consensus #1 of 2018.  The 2018 QBs did not have a good final campaign. 

I also think it's really cool that 3 of them use that negativity for fuel, they keep in touch frequently, and root each other on. I keep saying it, its Elway, Kelly, and Marino all over again

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22 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

If you have the opportunity to come out as almost the surefire #1, you should take it, your stock will never be higher. 

He's not the sure-fire #1. He has zero chance of going #1 overall in the draft this year anyways and would probably be neck & neck with Haskins anyways.

Also, have you looked at next year's QB class? It's poopy. I know people love Tua, but I don't. I think Herbert will likely be the top QB selected next season barring some sort of meltdown.

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4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I think people are looking at this the wrong way, and I don't mind him returning. The goal shouldn't be to get drafted as high as possible, the goal should be becoming as good as a football player as you can. 

Bingo!  Players who look at the big picture realize that if you're going to be a 1st round pick period (and even somewhat beyond there for a lot of players) the bonus money alone that you're going to make is life-changing.  But the money that you'll get from that second contract (which playing on a better coached, more talented team - which the teams picking later in the draft order tend to be - gives you a higher-probability of achieving since, worse-comes-to-worst, you can be propped up by better talent around you) is family dynasty changing (legit "wealth").

He's not the sure-fire #1 overall pick had he declared because outside of the Giants, the teams picking in the Top 5 at this point have all committed recent substantial resources to the QB position (Arizona and the Jets via draft picks, the Raiders via money - which, as long as Carr is a Raider you have to err on the side of caution, and the Niners via both).  So he'd be depending upon a team trading up to go #1 overall, depending on either the Giants taking him or a team trading up ahead of them to be the first QB taken (and even then that would be dependent on said team - or Giants - preferring him to Haskins - assuming he declares - or a late-rising Kyler Murray; I can count the number of people on one hand who were confident in Baker going ahead of both Darnold and Rosen this time last year, yet it still happened).

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If he felt he was ready he would’ve came out so it was a smart decision for him to return.  Don’t go unless you feel like you’re ready to be the face of an NFL franchise.

Do ppl really think Bradford wouldn’t have been injury prone had he not gone back to OU or that Leinart/Barkley wouldn’t have still flamed out had they not gone back to SC?

 

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You gotta do what you gotta do i guess...but this seems like a decision that could seriously bite him in the pocketbook at least.  Not only is next year's crop looking stronger at QB, compared to a year where Herbert was looking like pretty much a Top-10 lock, if not Top-5...but probably more importantly, it's gonna be another year to put Herbert and his flaws under the microscope.  And by golly, he's got some flaws to pick at...

I'm not one to assail a guy for doing what makes them happy, but at some point...you've gotta look at the situation where you could literally do almost nothing else other than train a bit, run 40 yards x2, throw a few passes, do a few meetings, and be absolutely and completely set for life...and think that might be worth pursuing.  Compared to the risk...

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On 12/28/2018 at 2:49 AM, Tugboat said:

You gotta do what you gotta do i guess...but this seems like a decision that could seriously bite him in the pocketbook at least.  Not only is next year's crop looking stronger at QB, compared to a year where Herbert was looking like pretty much a Top-10 lock, if not Top-5...but probably more importantly, it's gonna be another year to put Herbert and his flaws under the microscope.  And by golly, he's got some flaws to pick at...

I'm not one to assail a guy for doing what makes them happy, but at some point...you've gotta look at the situation where you could literally do almost nothing else other than train a bit, run 40 yards x2, throw a few passes, do a few meetings, and be absolutely and completely set for life...and think that might be worth pursuing.  Compared to the risk...

I realize people want to jump on the "grab the money while you can train," but honestly, if you're objectively looking at this doesn't letting his flaws be picked at (as opposed to him being drafted, the team that does so finding out while he's mid-process in his development and having to scramble on the fly to try to fix those flaws) so that they're better understood coming into the league, put him in a better long-term position (presuming the flaws are correctable - which most are in at least some regard)?  Moreover, if it ends up putting him in a more competitive class wherein he ends up with a better team, potentially more time to devote to fixing his flaws before he's needed as a starter or to be leaned on, and - as tends to be the case with the better teams - where he has access to a higher quality level of coaching.  Is it a risk?  Yes.  So is coming out early.

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8 hours ago, The LBC said:

I realize people want to jump on the "grab the money while you can train," but honestly, if you're objectively looking at this doesn't letting his flaws be picked at (as opposed to him being drafted, the team that does so finding out while he's mid-process in his development and having to scramble on the fly to try to fix those flaws) so that they're better understood coming into the league, put him in a better long-term position (presuming the flaws are correctable - which most are in at least some regard)?  Moreover, if it ends up putting him in a more competitive class wherein he ends up with a better team, potentially more time to devote to fixing his flaws before he's needed as a starter or to be leaned on, and - as tends to be the case with the better teams - where he has access to a higher quality level of coaching.  Is it a risk?  Yes.  So is coming out early.

That's fair i guess.  And there are times where i would argue for that sort of measured, long-term approach.  But honestly...even after the rookie wage scale, that initial money of a top pick makes it so easy to be set for life without ever even being a worthwhile NFL player at all.  It's basically bust-proofing.  Which imo, is probably a far safer gamble than Herbert actually "fixing" some of the flaws that might only become more pronounced if he doesn't "fix" them next year in college.  

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