Leisher's 2019 mock draft 12-27-18

[jleisher]

Some disclaimers to point out ahead of time.  #1)  Based on Cowboys, Cardinals, Bengals, Broncos and Jets making HC changes.  #2)  I am well aware that everyone's big board is different, players slide and rise in minutes.  #3)  Teams needs IMO are #1. OL, #2  Pass Rush, #3. Safety. #4)  Rodgers loves to pass to WR more then his TE and or RB.  #5) Scouting reports are from Draftblast and Walters Football.  #6) ** means this player seems like a perfect fit to be a Packer.  #7)  Picks in 6th and 7th rounds are developmental players.

Coaching:  Kris Richards (Cowboys) HC, Shane Waldron (Rams) OC, Brian Flores (New England) DC, Jeff Rodgers (Cardinals) STC, Tyler Hill (Denver) HS&CC.  Key assistants, Marc Colombo Asst. HC/OL (Cowboys), Rod Marinelli DL (Cowboys), Geep Chryst TE (Denver), Alex Van Pelt QB (Bengals).

Cap Space before cuts and signings:  $39,000,000

Outside Free Agents:  (Gute makes a splash with the help of Richards)  DE DaMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys) 4yrs/$120m (Russ figures out details to make it cap friendly, as much as possible), Landon Collins S (Giants) 4yrs/$48m, Maxx Williams TE (Ravens) 3yrs/$9m.

RFA's:  Allison, Patrick, Breeland and McCray are the only players I consider resigning.  IMO, none of the Packer free agents UR or not, are must resigns, none.

2019 Draft

#14.  With the addition of Lawrence and Collins, Gute has flexibility.  Raiders call, offer picks #23 and #28 for pick #14 and 2020 3rd.  (1300 - 1420 trade value)

#23.  Montez Sweat Edge  Miss St.  Dynamic and highly productive pass rusher. ^^

#28.  A.J. Brown WR  Miss.  Strong, good speed and hands.  Runs great routes.  **

#32.  Trade down.  Jags call and offer picks #41, #111, #184 and 2020 6th rd pick.  (590 - 579)

#41.  Trade down again, Colts offer #54 and #88.  (490 - 525)

#46.  Dexter Lawrence DL  Clemson.  Slides some do to drug test, not much, but some.  Massive NT/DE with agility.  (Daniels, Clark, Lawrence, Lawrence, Lowry and Adams as the DLine)

#54.  Chris Lindstrom G  Boston College.  Pro-caliber offensive lineman,  Good plug and play starter.   New RG.  **

#88.  Wyatt Miller T  UCF.  Size, speed and solid techniques.  Plays behind Bulaga for 1 year, then takes over RT, if Taylor has issues in 2019, could slide inside to play LG for a season.

#111.  Hakeem Butler WR  Iowa St.  Playmaker!  Size, speed and athleticism.

#116.  Parris Campbell WR  Ohio St.  Hybrid WR/RB skill set.  Can play the slot and value at RS.  **  (Adams, ESB, MVS, Brown, Butler and Campbell are Rodgers new top 5 targets.)

#118.  Jared Pinkney TE  Vanderbilt.  True combination of pass catcher and blocker.  Runs crisp and well executed routes.  **  (Graham, Williams and Pinkney new TE group)

#153.  Anthony Nelson Edge  Iowa.  Steady college pass rusher from day one.  2018, 41 tackles, 11 for loss with 9.5 sacks.  **  ( Perry, Fackrell, Sweat, Nelson and Donnerson new Edge LB unit.)

#184.  Myles Gaskin RB  Washington.  Shifty back with elite speed.  Aggressive runner with good pass pro skills.  **  (Jones, Williams and Gaskins the RB unit.)

#189.  Joejuan WIlliams CB  Vanderbilt.  Excellent size 6'3" with impressive quickness.  

#199.  Marvell Tell III S  USC.  Good all around safety with good field vision.  

#230.  Matt Gay K  Utah.  Very accurate kicker in 2017.  24-29 in FG with a 55 yarder.  Cold weather kicker comes in to give Crosby a push.

IMO, each one of these draft picks could make the 53 man roster.

UDFA's:  (Players I would like to see the Packers pick up if they go undrafted.)  Drew Sample TE Washington, Olive Sagapolu NT WI, Dcota Dixon S WI, Parker Hesse Edge Iowa, Levi Brown OL Marshall.

 

53 Man Roster:  I have 6 openings left on the 53 man roster for flexibility reasons.

QB:  Rodgers, Kizer and Boyles

RB:  Jones, Williams, (Gaskin)

WR:  Adams, MVS, ESB, (Brown), (Butler) and (Campbell)                                                                                   RFA: Allison

TE:  Graham, (Williams) and (Pinkney)

OL:  Bak, Taylor, Linsley, (Lindstrom), Bulaga, (Miller), Light                                                                                RFA:  Patrick and McCray ?

ST:  Crosby, Scott and Bradley

DL:  Daniels, Clark, (Lawrence), Lowry, (Lawrence), Adams.

OLB:  Perry, Fackrell, (Sweat), (Nelson), Donnerson

ILB:  Orens, Martinez, Morrison

CB:  King, Alexander, Jackson, Williams                                                                                                                    URFA:  Breeland ?

S:  (Collins), Jones, Brice, (Tell III)

 

[PackFan4Life]

You got a little overzealous with the trade backs and WRs for me to really be enthusiastic about this mock offseason. I think it is because you want to generate discussion on a few more prospects?

I like Sweat a lot, I just have a hard time envisioning him being available that late in the first right now. I know it is early, but pass rush with his results- he times decent this offseason I think you need to put the card in at 14. That is just me right now.

I really do not think a host of 1st and 2nd year WRs is a good idea. I think you let the draft picks from last year see if they can live up to their athletic ability and get a safety valve / mentor in FA. Hopefully I am wrong about Allison being done.

Despite you saying Rodgers likes to throw to WRs and not really into TE/RBs, I think he threw to TEs just fine when he had a good TEs. That was when they had.....Finley and towards the end....Cook. Pretty sure Rodgers would love some athletic TEs in the fold to mold behind Graham.

Love the idea of Collins in FA to go with another young athletic S in the draft, but you got a throw in with Tell late. Brice would probably be ok with Collins until Brice gets hurt again next year.

Love Lindstrom as a prospect for the Pack. I like a lot of the names you have in here, just think you got too muddled in the trade backs and the Lawrence signing for me to embrace the concept of this offseason as realistic. Any FA period that can net me a good S and WR for next year and a draft that might include 1a. Sweat, 1b.Okwue or Thompson, 2 Fant or CGJ, 3 Dillard/Lindstrom with the first four picks would have me excited.

 

 

[Arthur Penske]

Man I'd like Lawrence but not at   4/120, even if the market does dictate that. 

[jleisher]

Thanks for your input.  I agree with the thought of Sweat going higher, that is possible, disclaimer #1.  I like Dillard out of Washington St. as well, however in this mock, Miller seemed to fit the Packers mold better, T that can slide inside.  WR's, Adams and Allison are the vet's, MVS and ESB second year players with good to great upside, then throw in Brown, Butler and Campbell, that could turn into the best WR group Rodgers has ever had.  As for the young athletic TE, Maxx Williams is 25 and Pickney is 22ish, both fit the bill.  True, the signing of DeMarcus Lawrence is a dream, but you can't tell me if it happened you wouldn't be excited.  A front three of Daniels, Clark and Lawrence in the 3-4 set and if they go 4-3 add Lawrence (Clemson) in the middle with Clark at DT.  That wouldn't make you happy?  Yeah, some take mock drafts seriously and try to be the pro GM they want to be.  My mocks are done differently each time depend on the scenarios in my mind at the time.  I haven't seen a mock draft from you, how about doing one?  Share your ideas.

[jleisher]

10 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Man I'd like Lawrence but not at   4/120, even if the market does dictate that. 

I know, the money sucks, but that's the value thing coming into play.  So, you would be excited if that happened, right?  I would, it would be almost like the Reggie White signing back in the days.

[PackFan4Life]

I’m sure I’ll get around to making several mocks before April, I do every year. 

Not as optimistic about Allison as you - that is a serious leg injury he had and he’s a guy that couldn’t afford to lose a step. Hope for the best there but I have reasons to doubt his future unfortunately. 

[Golfman]

2 hours ago, Arthur Penske said:

Man I'd like Lawrence but not at   4/120, even if the market does dictate that. 

I couldn't pay a defender 30 million a year average if you had a gun to my head. I think this kid can play, but he's not worth Mack or Donald money, much less this. I don't believe in the 'premium' to play in Green Bay stuff either. 

[Packerraymond]

12 minutes ago, PackFan4Life said:

I’m sure I’ll get around to making several mocks before April, I do every year. 

Not as optimistic about Allison as you - that is a serious leg injury he had and he’s a guy that couldn’t afford to lose a step. Hope for the best there but I have reasons to doubt his future unfortunately. 

Geronimo Allison? It was classified as a core/groin injury. That's a hernia 99% of the time, not a leg injury.

[JBURGE]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

13 minutes ago, PackFan4Life said:

I’m sure I’ll get around to making several mocks before April, I do every year. 

Not as optimistic about Allison as you - that is a serious leg injury he had and he’s a guy that couldn’t afford to lose a step. Hope for the best there but I have reasons to doubt his future unfortunately. 

Geronimo Allison? It was classified as a core/groin injury. That's a hernia 99% of the time, not a leg injury.

It's simple. Say something about Geronimo Allison and Ray shows up

[Golfman]

Not sure what point chart you are using but I think you are getting too much value based on the point charts I've seen. No thanks to drafting 3 WR's again. I kind of like our WR unit as it is for next year. I think those picks could be utilized much better IMO. I'd be OK if we didn't draft a WR at all in this draft. 

[PackFan4Life]

15 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Geronimo Allison? It was classified as a core/groin injury. That's a hernia 99% of the time, not a leg injury.

I sure hope you are right about that Ray, he was looking to really break through based on what I saw in Camp last summer. He just had a feel for moving with the ball in his hands and truly grasped a lot of route running techniques that had me excited for him this year. Then the horrible injury. I was told by Bill Scott that it was a bigger injury and required major surgery, so I am hopeful it will not impact his ability to contort his body, cut and accelerate moving forward because those attributes had me excited going into this year.

Still not sold that we need to add a high pedigree WR unless one is head and shoulders above anyone else on the board. The current group is young, talented, and needs to progress. That is not necessarily going to happen as quickly as we want. Davante is a stud, but I am not sure any of them are ready to be that solid #2 coming into next year- that might be a year away. I think one of those 4 from this year (ESB, MVS, Jmon and Kumerow) is going to turn into a big time player and I truly believe between the other 3 and Allison you will find a solid #2 in the future. 2 of those 5 is going to wash out. Going to be interesting to see how it all settles the next couple years.

 

 

 

 

[jleisher]

16 hours ago, PackFan4Life said:

I’m sure I’ll get around to making several mocks before April, I do every year. 

Not as optimistic about Allison as you - that is a serious leg injury he had and he’s a guy that couldn’t afford to lose a step. Hope for the best there but I have reasons to doubt his future unfortunately. 

Looking forward to seeing them, have a good day.

[jleisher]

16 hours ago, Golfman said:

Not sure what point chart you are using but I think you are getting too much value based on the point charts I've seen. No thanks to drafting 3 WR's again. I kind of like our WR unit as it is for next year. I think those picks could be utilized much better IMO. I'd be OK if we didn't draft a WR at all in this draft. 

I use Drafttek's trade value chart, is your better?  If so, what are you using?  Thanks!  I know the idea of drafting WR seems crazy, but with Lawrence and Sweat, the pass rush would or should be better.  Collins at Safety and a draft pick, should help that position.  Maxx Williams and Pinkney help the TE's.  Lindstrom and Miller cover the O-Line needs, so why not go crazy and get Rodgers some toys?  Just, if and only if this happened, that WR group would be killer.

[CWood21]

Too many trade backs.  I could see them moving down from their last FRP into that early second to acquire another late Day 2, early Day 3 pick.  But not much more.