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Iron_man

GDT Week 17 The Jets @ The Pats

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Great edge discipline by JC on that hold play. Sat down and forced the cut up field. Good play for such a young player just getting significant PT

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Trey Flowers was a beast yesterday. I’m loving what he’s done this season, and I’m hoping the Pats can use him and Gilmore as cornerstones for their defense going forward. I think with one good draft and a good free agent, they can bolster the defense to be as good as any in the AFC. With two good drafts and two good free agents, the new and improved D could carry them and take pressure off the offense. 

 

Im also loving the increased amount of running between the tackles. I think this will be helpful in the long run by taking pressure off of Brady (and extending his career), keeping the Pats’ D off the field, and other high powered offenses on the sideline as well. Of course all of this is obvious to anyone reading this, but I just thought I’d put it out there. 

 

Best win win of the season. Hopefully a sign of things to come, and they worked out some of the bugs. 

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According to my model, the Patriots underperformed this year by win-loss record (see Miami game) and played at the 91st percentile of all teams from 2007 to 2018. Actually above the average Patriots team from 2007 to 2017 (90th percentile), a figure that gets dragged down by the 2013 and 2008 teams. Closest comparison would be the 2015 Patriots. We all know how that season ended.

 

Edit: Here's a closer look at the Patriots' performance this year:

New England Patriots (11-5)
Percent over Average: 17.40982051
Offense WAR: +3.06
Passing Offense WAR: +1.55
Rushing Offense WAR: +1.51
Defense WAR: +1.43
Passing Defense WAR: +0.49
Rushing Defense WAR: +0.94
Special Teams WAR: +0.49

Passes by anyone not named Tom Brady were worth a WAR of +0.01. Passes by Brady were good for +1.54. I'm kind of surprised the run defense isn't in the negatives, but they did get better at the end and only gave up a TD on 1.9% of runs.

Not one of Brady's best years (ex.: WAR on Brady passes in 2007 was +6.5), but still decent.

Edited by AlNFL19
Chart

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A final game blow-out of indifferent opposition does wonders for the rankings - Pats finish the year ranked 4th in off. PPG and 7th in def. PPG. Both seem...flattering.

A top 5 offense without a 1000 rusher OR receiver is odd too.

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8 hours ago, ChazStandard said:

A final game blow-out of indifferent opposition does wonders for the rankings - Pats finish the year ranked 4th in off. PPG and 7th in def. PPG. Both seem...flattering.

A top 5 offense without a 1000 rusher OR receiver is odd too.

And the Saints are superbowl favourites in a year where Brees goes for fewer than 4,000 yards. A strange season it was. 

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