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Texas_OutLaw7

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20 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

My question was "do you have any empirical evidence that passing yards correlate to record". You changed the parameters to "here are some conference championship games". Those are two different questions. Additionally, even with those stats it just shows those teams are above average. Which ties to the fact that passing yards has little to no correlation. 

PS - you posted 11, not 10. 

You said no correlation to winning. Now you want to change the parameters to season record? Lol. I posted the last 20 or 22 super bowl participants and the last 32 conference championship participants. And it CLEARLY  shows a strong correlation to passing yards per game.

20 of the last 32 conference championship participants had top 10 passing offenses. 20 of 32, man. The "top 10" is not a wild parameter.

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The problem with using pure passing yards as a measure of success is the prevent defense.  Passing stats of losing teams always get padded in the 4th quarter.  I’ve done and shared the cowboys analysis many times.  The cowboys are most likely to win when they control TOP and win the Turnover battle.  Obviously winning TOP includes converting 3rd downs into first downs.   But, It really doesn’t matter how they do it... running or passing.  

From what I recall when you put those 2 stats together, the cowboys win something like 90% of the time.

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1 hour ago, The_Slamman said:

The problem with using pure passing yards as a measure of success is the prevent defense.  Passing stats of losing teams always get padded in the 4th quarter.  I’ve done and shared the cowboys analysis many times.  The cowboys are most likely to win when they control TOP and win the Turnover battle.  Obviously winning TOP includes converting 3rd downs into first downs.   But, It really doesn’t matter how they do it... running or passing.  

From what I recall when you put those 2 stats together, the cowboys win something like 90% of the time.

When 22 of the last 32(69%) Conference Championship participants(the last 8 years worth) have had top 11 passing ypg offenses, it's going to be hard to tell me that there is zero correlation to being a high caliber passing offense and winning in today's NFL.

I get garbage time, but in today's NFL, teams are throwing on first down. Out of shotgun. And even in garbage time, poor passing teams aren't putting up 450 yards and 6 TDs. Their stats get padded with an easy 60 yard drive or two at most, after most likely doing nothing all game. 

 

I understand that there are different ways to win other than the way 69% of the league has won in the last decade. The Ravens with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed did it with Flacco. The 49ers with Willis, and Bowman did it with Alex Smith. The Panthers did it with Kuechly and Norman and a running Cam. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware did it with a crippled Manning/Osweiler. And the legion of Boom did it with a young Russell Willson.

 

We could be one of those teams. We need a strong af defense which we are working towards if we sign DLaw, a safety, a DT, and don't spend to much on our sub par passing game. 

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31 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

When 22 of the last 32(69%) Conference Championship participants(the last 8 years worth) have had top 11 passing ypg offenses, it's going to be hard to tell me that there is zero correlation to being a high caliber passing offense and winning in today's NFL.

I get garbage time, but in today's NFL, teams are throwing on first down. Out of shotgun. And even in garbage time, poor passing teams aren't putting up 450 yards and 6 TDs. Their stats get padded with an easy 60 yard drive or two at most, after most likely doing nothing all game. 

 

I understand that there are different ways to win other than the way 69% of the league has won in the last decade. The Ravens with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed did it with Flacco. The 49ers with Willis, and Bowman did it with Alex Smith. The Panthers did it with Kuechly and Norman and a running Cam. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware did it with a crippled Manning/Osweiler. And the legion of Boom did it with a young Russell Willson.

 

We could be one of those teams. We need a strong af defense which we are working towards if we sign DLaw, a safety, and don't spend to much on our sub par passing game. 

If you are not in the top 3-5, you dont have a high caliber passing attack. Your argument is based on a ranking. Go look at the actual numbers. The difference between the 7th and the 17th ranked passing offenses equates out to about 2-3 completions a game. In fact, if you real numbers, the vast majority of teams are one bell curve away from 3500 yards. You keep claiming "Top 11!!!" When reality the difference between #11 and #16 (completely average) was 12 yards per a game. 12 yards does not change you from "average" to "high caliber".

 

So no, its not realistic to say to need elite passing yardage to win. In fact, analytics by all the major outlets stat there is no/very low correlation. 

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12 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

If you are not in the top 3-5, you dont have a high caliber passing attack. Your argument is based on a ranking. Go look at the actual numbers. The difference between the 7th and the 17th ranked passing offenses equates out to about 2-3 completions a game. In fact, if you real numbers, the vast majority of teams are one bell curve away from 3500 yards. You keep claiming "Top 11!!!" When reality the difference between #11 and #16 (completely average) was 12 yards per a game. 12 yards does not change you from "average" to "high caliber".

 

So no, its not realistic to say to need elite passing yardage to win. In fact, analytics by all the major outlets stat there is no/very low correlation. 

There is a difference between top 10 and bottom 10(which is us). The argument that 3 teams are good at passing and the rest are even is hogwash.

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9 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

There is a difference between top 10 and bottom 10(which is us). The argument that 3 teams are good at passing and the rest are even is hogwash.

Either you didnt read what I wrote or you are once again ignoring facts. 

Fact => Passing yardage has little to no correlation to winning. Proven by statistical analysis by major sporting companies. Also parroted by NFL QBs. This is not an opinion. It is a provable fact. 

Fact => Most teams pass in a similar ball park range of ~3500 +/- 20%. Thats roughly a median number. There are a few outliers that pass for 5k yards, those are high caliber passing attacks. 

Opinion => Attempting to say a team that is #11 is high caliber, when literally 12 yards less a game would put them dead middle, is disingenuous. 

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2 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

The difference between a top 10 passing team outside the top 5 like IND, who was ranked 7th, and the Dallas Cowboys who were ranked 22nd was about 50 yards a game. In a game of inches, 800 yards per season matter.

Strawman. Stay on point here. We are talking passing yardage as it correlates to wins. Please dont twist this into Indy vs Dallas or any other off-point debate topic. 

Dont move the goalpost. 

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