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jetjuice

#1 pick - who do the Cardinals draft?

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38 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

A trade-down could also make sense, but it's one of those things that always seems easier on paper...than when it's your *** on the line, and you have to answer for why a couple years from now (if you last that long)...you don't have a Nick Bosa instead, while he's competing for DPOY honors and the like.  Can put a lot of very unrealistic expectations on whatever sort of draft compensation you get.  So you've either gotta a)completely indisputably hit those picks out of the park including at least one absolute stud and some other quality difference-makers (tall task), or b)get such an insane king's ransom that you're pretty much beyond fault in taking the extra capital even if you ultimately don't nail every pick.  The latter of which is pretty much only possible when teams are talking about trading up like maniacs for what they think is the QB who might solidify their GM job for years and years...because QB is the only position like that.

Yeah, that's the pitfall of trading down.  If you don't get a king's ransom or (hit on the guys you pick on if it's a small move down), then you are subjecting yourself to years of second-guessing - and it's usually a GM-killer to do it.   That's honestly why I think ARI is better off moving on with Keim - he's so much on the hot seat, I think he'll do the move that gains the most in the short-term.  I'd want a GM who's secure enough to think what's best in 2020 or 2021 - which is realistically ARI's window to start contending (2021 being far more likely than 2020).

One point I'd make though about this draft - SF, OAK, TB & NYJ look like they would kill to get an elite EDGE talent.   There are a ton of great DL's and DE's, but TB/OAK/NYJ may think there are only 2 EDGE-capable players who are at elite levels, and only 1 generational talent (I know Ferrell & Sweat will have their supporters, but it seems like Bosa will be in his own tier, and then Josh Allen, and then another drop down).     SF is the only team that would have the ability to know they'd get either guy, but OAK/TB/NYJ all have to worry that they might get shut out of that level of talent.   While I agree that normally QB is where the ransom gets paid, this is a different draft, where at least 3, if not 4 of the top 5 teams are looking for non-QB help in a big way - and we have 1 generational talent, and 1 elite talent that seems above the rest.   That might create the demand for a move down that rivals QB prices.   In that case, it may provide ARI with that 2nd out, where the return is just too good to pass up, and totally justifiable.    Should be a really interesting top of the draft for the non-QB teams, and what they do. 

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Bosa is the best player in the draft, but Jonah Williams really isn't far behind and there is a huge need to protect the QB. I'm in the minority, but I say take Jonah Williams. He's as much of a sure thing as Quenton Nelson was last year. Not saying he is as good as Nelson, but it is close.

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On January 2, 2019 at 12:34 PM, Calvert28 said:

Well hopefully they dont start the draft off wrong with the wrong pick. According to some the first 9 picks were all bad last year. 

Well...not going to defend the others in between, but picks 1 and 9 had really good rookie years. Mike McGlinchey was very good at RT for the 9ers (especially in the run game and did well vs some good pass rushers...) and Baker Mayfield has won not only games in Cleveland but fans and teammates as well.

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1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Well...not going to defend the others in between, but picks 1 and 9 had really good rookie years. Mike McGlinchey was very good at RT for the 9ers (especially in the run game and did well vs some good pass rushers...) and Baker Mayfield has won not only games in Cleveland but fans and teammates as well.

I was mocking what Josh Rosen said after he was picked. Said there was 9 other mistakes made before him.

 

Quote

"Nine mistakes were made ahead of me," said Rosen. "And I will make sure over the next decade or so that they will know that they made a mistake."

 

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BPA at a position of need? Seriously though have you seen the status of OLs in this league? If you have 4 good starters you're better than half the league and if there are injuries you're in for a world of hurt. 

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I personally think they gotta go with Quinnen Williams. Not only does he fill a bigger need but there is no talent drop off between him and Bosa. Quinnen is just as much of an elite prospect IMO.

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On January 3, 2019 at 3:22 PM, Calvert28 said:

I was mocking what Josh Rosen said after he was picked. Said there was 9 other mistakes made before him.

 

 

Uh-huh, emojis help convey context. They can be your friend! 😎

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Nah they’ll either go Bosa or trade down

go Oline every pick after. Honestly if I’m them I try my best to create a bidding war with NYG and Jack

they can still get a stud DT or Jonah at one of those picks plus more ammo

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6 hours ago, brownie man said:

Nah they’ll either go Bosa or trade down

go Oline every pick after. Honestly if I’m them I try my best to create a bidding war with NYG and Jack

they can still get a stud DT or Jonah at one of those picks plus more ammo

Why not Quinnen Williams over Bosa?

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3 hours ago, jetjuice said:

Why not Quinnen Williams over Bosa?

Pass rusher

more proven dominance 

but mainly outside pass rush

that high up DTs basically never go higher than ends with all things being equal 

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I think whomever the Cards grade out as the clear top player in the draft (which probably is a DL), they should take him. If they have 2 or 3 guys tied with the same grade, then they should trade down 1-2 spots. I think that's unlikely, though.

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2 hours ago, brownie man said:

more proven dominance 

I agree that they'd take Bosa over Williams, but the bolded is not true IMO. Williams has dominated against pretty much everyone. I find it a tad concerning that he hardly ever faces a double team and when he does he doesn't properly leverage himself, but whether or not he's been effective in every game hasn't been a question.

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1 minute ago, BleedTheClock said:

I agree that they'd take Bosa over Williams, but the bolded is not true IMO. Williams has dominated against pretty much everyone. I find it a tad concerning that he hardly ever faces a double team and when he does he doesn't properly leverage himself, but whether or not he's been effective in every game hasn't been a question.

Williams has one year of production 

Bosa has 2.5 

and if Bosa would’ve played all the games this year he would’ve won best defensive player in the nation 

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