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1st Round Mock

goldfishwars

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goldfishwars

goldfishwars

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1. Arizona Cardinals - Nick Bosa [ EDGE ] Ohio State

2. San Francisco 49ers - Josh Allen [ EDGE ] Kentucky

3. New York Jets - Jonah Williams [ OT ] Alabama

4. Oakland Raiders - Quinnen Williams [ DL ] Alabama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Dwayne Haskins [ QB ] Ohio State

6. New York Giants - Clelin Ferrell [ EDGE ] Clemson

7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Daniel Jones [ QB ] Duke

8. Detroit Lions - Ed Oliver [ DL ] Houston

9. Denver Broncos - Greedy Williams [ CB ] LSU

10. Buffalo Bills - DK Metcalf [ WR ] Ole Miss

11. Cincinnati Bengals - Devin White [ LB ] LSU

12. Green Bay Packers - Brian Burns [ EDGE ] FSU

13. Miami Dolphins - Will Grier [ QB ] West Virginia

14. Atlanta Falcons - Jeffery Simmons [ DL ] Mississippi State

15. Washington Redskins - N'Keal Harry [ WR ] Arizona State

16. Carolina Panthers - Montez Sweat [ EDGE ] Mississippi State

17. Cleveland Browns - Jawaan Taylor [ OT ] Florida

18. Minnesota Vikings - Dalton Risner [ OL ] Kansas State

19. Tennessee Titans - Jachai Polite [ EDGE ] Florida

20. Pittsburgh Steelers - DeAndre Baker [ CB ] Georgia

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Rashan Gary [ DL ] Michigan

22. Indianapolis Colts - AJ Brown [ WR ] Ole Miss

23. Seattle Seahawks - Yodny Cajuste [ OL ] West Virginia

24. Baltimore Ravens - Marquise Brown [ WR ] Oklahoma

25. Oakland Raiders (From Dallas) - Byron Murphy [ CB ] Washington

26. Houston Texans - Greg Little [ OT ] Ole Miss

27. Oakland Raiders (From Chicago) – Mack Wilson [ LB ] Alabama

28. LA Chargers - Dre'Mont Jones [ DL ] Ohio State

29. New England Patriots - Raekwon Davis [ DL ] Alabama

30. LA Rams - Chase Winovich [ EDGE ] Michigan

31. Kansas City Chiefs - Dexter Lawrence [ DL ] Clemson

32. Green Bay Packers (From New Orleans) - Noah Fant [ TE ] Iowa

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Myth

Myth

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  • DT with Damon Harrison, Hand and A'Shawn Robinson already ensconced, means that taking DT Ed Oliver would be using a premier draft spot to pick up a rotational player (who may or may not have some attitude issues), which doesn't make sense. Nor has Quinn shown that the BPA factors into his drafting philosophy. In the 1st round, albeit that most of his picks have been mid round in those drafts, he has been very much in the Draft for Need camp. Along those lines I would be looking for starters at EDGE, LB (inside weak or middle), CB, TE & possibly WR & SS. In fact they could use multiples at those 1st 3 positions that I listed.
  1. Edge Josh Allen has been a popular pick for Lion fans for forever. If he falls out of the top 6, Lion fans will lose their minds if he's not the pick. He fits almost too perfectly what Patricia wants, so it's unlikely he'll be there.
  2. I personally feel the LB corp is the most needy position on the team. Jarrad Davis might be a better Will than Mike LB, so Devin White makes a lot of sense to come in and play next to him. Devin Bush would also be a great fit, but 7 is  too high for him. I also like the Alabama LBs Wilson and Jennings, but moreso in the 2nd round. After that my interest wanes in LBs.
  3. At #7, CB is actually where I would say the highest odds are of the BPA and the Need-based philosophy meeting. The Lions blitzed the least amount of times (or possibly 2nd least), with most plays having a max of 4 rushers, which put a lot of responsibility on the secondary to hold up for 4-6 seconds to allow the pressure to get home. Almost all sacks this year were coverage sacks. Therefore, if you believe their philosophy will remain the same (and Bob Quinn hasn't shown much willingness to think outside the box in the first round), & they don't seem intent on improving their pass rush with either edge or blitzers, then the CB/S becomes a much higher priority. I'm not alone in thinking Brian Murphy is far better than you have him  on your board, especially if he runs a good time. He had the best tape of the top 3 CBs. He may be undersized but he covers and tackles equally well. Imo Greedy Williams could be a better pro than a college player. But I wish he had showed more physicality this past year, because he left the door open for DeAndre Baker (who really needs to run a good time to keep his position in the top ½ of the 1st round) and Murphy to be the first CB taken. The Lions need to create more turnovers, so balls skills and physicality are both high priorities, in a DB. Though you don't have any in your top 32, I think a couple safeties could also be going in the 1st round. S Deonte Thompson (usually in the top 10)  and Tyler Rapp (usually in the bottom 10) are consistently rated as 1st rounders. 
  4. O-line (OT/OG), WR, TE, #2 RB are offensive needs. We know that in the past Quinn has made the offense a priority, so it wouldn't necessarily shock me for him to do something with offense in the first round. (And they need to do something about the talent offense, which sucked tremendously after being pretty good for years. But IMO more speed at WR & RB are the highest priority, rather than another O-lineman.) But it's more likely Quinn does something in free agency and the 2nd or 3rd round (at the soonest) for one of those 4 areas.

This is an extremely talented group of DTs. Which means that minutia will probably be over-emphasized to separate them, negatives nitpicked, and some teams will be willing to gamble and wait an extra round to pick one in order to fill another pressing need where the talent drops off precipitously. So, some talented DTs could fall further than anyone expects. EDGE, QB, & LT are the positions, as everyone knows, that traditionally are the most sought after positions. Not DT. 

 I would expect the good teams in the final 12 spots are going to be in a much better position to go BPA, rather than the early teams who didn't make the playoffs - and most likely need EDGE, QB or LT. Or, maybe there will be more trades between the haves and the have nots, involving those DT picks. 

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