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Call your shot: Veteran Cuts Edition


AlexGreen#20

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Last year, we had a bunch of moves that could/did happen. And I want to get everybody's opinion on the upcoming offseason:

I'll post another thread in a few days about the guys who are now Free Agents that we might look into resigning, but this seems like a good place to start the offseason. 

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1. Cut Nick Perry?

It's hard to call this one without knowing the medical. Comments were made earlier in the year about how Perry was never healthy this year. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. On paper, the skillset should match what we're looking for. Whether there's anything left remains to be seen. 

Perry can be June-1st cut for 10737500 in cap relief next year. He would have a dead cap hit the following year of $7,400,000 however. 

Prediction: I think the team stays with Perry another year though damn if it isn't close. There's just a bit too much money left on the deal and I think they're holding out hope that he can get healthy in this system. 

Want: As much as I like Perry, I think it might be time to move on. That said, as soon as we do, it's going to be awful watching him regain his form with the Titans. I probably would make the call to cut him, though ask me again in a few hours and I would probably give you a different answer.

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2. Cut Jimmy Graham?

I think you have to ride with Graham another year and hope he and Rodgers both look reinvigorated and like they're on the same page. I get that Graham's overpaid for his production so far, but I don't think you're able to replace the lost production with the minimal cap savings.

Graham can be June-1st cut for $9,000,000 in savings, but would have a 3,668,000 cap hit the following year however.

Prediction: I think Graham stays in 2019. I think Graham is basically exactly who we thought we were getting when we signed the contract and he'll get better with more reps in the system.

Want: Same as the prediction

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3. Cut Mike Daniels?

Daniels is turning 30 and heading into a walk year. The injuries have started to pile up for Daniels over the last few seasons as well. He's a good player, but I'm not in love with the fit here.

He can be cut for $8,312,000 in savings. The downside to cutting him is that if he walks, you would very likely get a comp pick in 2020, even if it is just a 5th rounder. Plus you would miss the production and the veteran leadership.

Prediction: Daniels is kept around for his final season, even if he is overpaid. I think he means a lot to the guys in the room and that he's worth keeping around for the leadership.

Want: Much like Graham, I think Daniels is overpaid, but I'm not sure you can get the same replacement production for what you would get by cutting him, I'd be willing to take the risk though. I think I would cut him, but I'm very conflicted.

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Cut Bryan Bulaga?

Bulaga is also turning 30 and heading into a walk year. The injuries have started to pile up for Bulaga over the last few seasons as well. I think he's a good player though and is perfect for what we want to do when he's healthy.

He can be cut for $6,750,000 in savings this year. The downside to cutting him is that if he walks, you would very likely get a comp pick in 2020, even if it is just a 5th rounder.

Prediction: Keep Bulaga for another year. You just can't replace that production for the dollars saved.

Want: Same as the prediction.

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Cut Tramon Williams?

Tramon is turning 36 and heading into a walk year. With him being done at CB and moved to Safety, it's hard for me to justify that contract. Alternatively, we have absolutely nothing at Safety at the moment, and I feel like I'm jumping out of a plane without a parachute if I cut the only semi dependable guy back there.

He can be cut for $4,750,000 in savings. I think if he's cut, he's likely to retire, so the comp pick is questionable.

Prediction: Tramon is retained, I just don't think the front office could stomach not having any kind of safety net back there, even if they could probably get better with the money saved.

Want: I'd probably cut him loose and pray like hell the FA market turns out. Take all that money and go straight at Thomas or Boston.

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Cut Mason Crosby?

Special teams was a trainwreck this year and Crosby was a part of it. He cost us several games this year. He's also going to be 35 and heading into a walk year.

He can be cut for $3,600,000 in savings. No comp picks for specialists

Prediction: Crosby is cut. We've already gotten younger at the other specialists with Scott (Meh) and Bradley (BOOOO!!!). Time to complete the transition. 

Want: Crosby is cut. I just think you can do better with the cash in hand.

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I expect a lot more players are going to be cut than should be cut.  Gute has developed a serious case of fanitis. 

*Traded away Clinton-Dix when he was clearly our best and only serviceable safety.  Say what you want about him, but he was undoubtedly our best safety and the only player who could intercept a ball.  Clinton-Dix had 3 interceptions with us.  You know how many interceptions our entire team had without Clinton-Dix?  4.  Breeland had 2, King had 1, Alexander had 1.  We finished WORST in the NFL in interceptions (but Pettine was SO much better than Capers, who NEVER finished anywhere NEAR that low). 

*Cut Jordy Nelson.  Don't care what anyone says, our offense - especially our red zone offense - would have been better with Nelson. 

*Fired McCarthy. 

It's that kind of reactionary crap that leads to this kind of season.  Gute does not understand the mentality that if a player isn't what you want him to be and yet he's still better than an alternative, you don't get rid of that player. 

Given Gute is in charge, I would not be remotely surprised if Bulaga, Crosby, Williams, Daniels, and Graham are all cut.  People will celebrate Bulaga being cut, they'll celebrate Williams and Graham being cut, they'll scream for joy if Perry gets cut and then we'll have jack **** at those positions and people still won't get the simple concept that...

IF YOU ARE NOT BETTER AT THAT POSITION, YOU DO NOT CUT THE PLAYER AT THAT POSITION. 

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12 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

 

1. Cut Nick Perry?

Prediction: Gone

Want: Gone, although every flash he shows between injuries somewhere else will be remarked upon .

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2. Cut Jimmy Graham?

Prediction: Stays

Want: Another poster pointed out that his average cost drops with another year a year that might be better than this one has been

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3. Cut Mike Daniels?

Prediction: Stays

Want: Agree with the take that the locker room needs him, though the injuries are taking a toll indeed.

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Cut Bryan Bulaga?

Prediction: Stays

Want: Want

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Cut Tramon Williams?

Prediction: Gone—new regime casualty 

Want: I’m behind the team on this one 

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Cut Mason Crosby?

Prediction: Crosby is Gone

Want: Gone

 

Sorry for the awkward re-working of your quoted post. Forgot that the phone doesn’t allow some of the editing functions of the laptop. 

Great topic. Much freer to wield the axe in terms of veterans in the coming off-season. 

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17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Understand the team cant divorce financials and on the field production - but I can.
So - based on performance, position and projected production?

Cut Nick Perry?  Yes.
Might be a nasty dead cap to swallow - but I honestly dont think this career arc is going to go up again and do we really need/want another flatline Perry on the field?

Cut Jimmy Graham? No.
Draft backups, development players? Certainly - and as pointed out in another thread.....I watch A LOT of other teams utilizing rookie TEs far more than GB ever seems capable of doing. That should change IMO. Somebody mention it to AR in the off season.

Cut Mike Daniels? No.
Tough year in a thin DL group that caught up to him. Theres gas left in his tank IMO.

Cut Bryan Bulaga? No.
He's a viable (quality?) RT on an OL thats got mash unit written all over it. Draft his replacement (or backup stronger than Spriggs? YES. I'm really tired of Spriggs annual "could this be the year" disappointments) - but he's a plug on this side of the OL and not overly expensive. He's gotta protect the Crown Jewel of the NFL positional spending - who just happens to be critical to the teams success - even when he's not sidelined with injury. .

Cut Tramon Williams? No - or rather - depends on FA/draft talent.
Our Safety position is a hole in the water. Sure we've got some players there - but noboby thats making any kind of plays and isnt that why we play the game?
Based on FA/Draft - maybe after training camp - or whenever Russ Ball figures the most savings can be had - but be damn sure of the replacement talent.

Cut Mason Crosby? No.
Is he overpaid? Maybe. Probably. I dont care. Its not so much that its breaking anybodies bank (certainly not mine) or gonna make such a big difference in the CAP overall.
The guy still has a 50yard plus leg on him. Thats what counts when the football turns into a rock.

 

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45 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Cut Tramon Williams?

Tramon is turning 36 and heading into a walk year. With him being done at CB and moved to Safety, it's hard for me to justify that contract. Alternatively, we have absolutely nothing at Safety at the moment, and I feel like I'm jumping out of a plane without a parachute if I cut the only semi dependable guy back there.

He can be cut for $4,750,000 in savings. I think if he's cut, he's likely to retire, so the comp pick is questionable.

Prediction: Tramon is retained, I just don't think the front office could stomach not having any kind of safety net back there, even if they could probably get better with the money saved.

Want: I'd probably cut him loose and pray like hell the FA market turns out. Take all that money and go straight at Thomas or Boston.

Tramon has a $ 1 million bonus due on the 3rd day of league year ( March) , seems unlikely GB will have his replacement in-house before that cash is due
I think they write the check to buy some time, and I'd be super leery of dumping him before acquiring a veteran replacement. Young CBs need a vet back there

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Don't get your love for HaHa.  He was going downhill fast and had no interest in being here.   So what if he got one more interception?  The revolving turnstile in the secondary due to injuries and ineptitude was constant.  Can't make silk out of a pigs ear.   We got a mid round 4th for him which will be much more than free agency comp will be.    

Agree on the Nelson deal. 

You blame Gute for firing McCarthy?  I blame McCarthy for firing McCarthy.  Reactionary?  Nope ... justified ... yup.  It's been stated in this forum that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again with the same bad results.  If a player isn't what you want him to be, you get rid of him.  How in the world do you know the alternative isn't better?  You don't.  

Now, if Bulaga, Crosby, Williams, Daniels and Graham are all cut ... that would be a surprise for next year.  If they wait until 2020 to be gone, I'd bet on that scenario. 

 

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3 minutes ago, FinneasGage said:

definitely cut tramon

i don't understand perry's contract situation, i've seen conflicting reports about how much we save by cutting him 

 

Because Perry isn't in a walk year (he doesn't become a Free Agent after the 2019 season) there are two types of "Cut" you can make.

There's the Pre-June-1st Cut (also known as the standard cut). If you standard cut somebody, all of their left over signing bonus money, hits the current year's cap. If you were to standard cut Perry, you pay all 3 remaining years of his signing bonus at a total of 11,100,000. This would give you $3,337,500 in extra cap space in 2019.

There's also the Post-June-1st Cut. If you do that, then you pay the current year's signing bonus, and the other year's of the signing bonus hit next year's cap (2020). It's a way to defer the cap hit of the signing bonus to give the team's some relief. If you Post-June-1st Cut Perry you have $10,737,500 in extra cap space in 2019, but you also have a bill of $7,400,000 waiting for you next year. 

++++++ If you're satisfied with that answer, don't keep reading +++++++

But, because the NFL operates on a rolling cap system (meaning that any money you don't spend in 2019, you can spend in 2020) it makes no sense to not Post-June-1st Cut Perry, because if you want that money available in 2020, you just don't spend the money you cleared in 2019 and it will roll over into 2020 exactly as though you had standard cut him. The Post-June-1st Cut just gives you more flexibility. 

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3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Because Perry isn't in a walk year (he doesn't become a Free Agent after the 2019 season) there are two types of "Cut" you can make.

There's the Pre-June-1st Cut (also known as the standard cut). If you standard cut somebody, all of their left over signing bonus money, hits the current year's cap. If you were to standard cut Perry, you pay all 3 remaining years of his signing bonus at a total of 11,100,000. This would give you $3,337,500 in extra cap space in 2019.

There's also the Post-June-1st Cut. If you do that, then you pay the current year's signing bonus, and the other year's of the signing bonus hit next year's cap (2020). It's a way to defer the cap hit of the signing bonus to give the team's some relief. If you Post-June-1st Cut Perry you have $10,737,500 in extra cap space in 2019, but you also have a bill of $7,400,000 waiting for you next year. 

++++++ If you're satisfied with that answer, don't keep reading +++++++

But, because the NFL operates on a rolling cap system (meaning that any money you don't spend in 2019, you can spend in 2020) it makes no sense to not Post-June-1st Cut Perry, because if you want that money available in 2020, you just don't spend the money you cleared in 2019 and it will roll over into 2020 exactly as though you had standard cut him. The Post-June-1st Cut just gives you more flexibility. 

I buy into Plan B.
Plus - or doesnt this make any difference - future CAPs are gonna be larger right? So - bigger CAP down the line against a fixed dead money hit. Or something like that :)
I just dont think we're gonna get much outta him on the field anymore.

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48 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I'm polar opposite on this in that they'll cut fewer than probably need to go BECAUSE the replacement isn't there. Case in point: Tramon. 

Also disagree with your take on HaHa. He was going to leave anyway, and Gute didn't see this team competing for anything at the end and he got MORE for him in trade than if he let him walk in FA. Great move. So, he's thinking his way thru these moves more than reactionary., 

Jordy played, or more correctly DIDN'T PLAY his way off the team. When things went south last year, he left too and his routes suffered, his energy wasn't there. He wasn't the team player we'd come to expect. 

I think they keep Tramon/Daniels/Graham and I'm on the fence about Perry. The cap hit stinks, but so does paying a guy that's never on the field to begin with. 

 

48 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

 

 

I expect a lot more players are going to be cut than should be cut.  Gute has developed a serious case of fanitis. 

*Traded away Clinton-Dix when he was clearly our best and only serviceable safety.  Say what you want about him, but he was undoubtedly our best safety and the only player who could intercept a ball.  Clinton-Dix had 3 interceptions with us.  You know how many interceptions our entire team had without Clinton-Dix?  4.  Breeland had 2, King had 1, Alexander had 1.  We finished WORST in the NFL in interceptions (but Pettine was SO much better than Capers, who NEVER finished anywhere NEAR that low). 

*Cut Jordy Nelson.  Don't care what anyone says, our offense - especially our red zone offense - would have been better with Nelson. 

*Fired McCarthy. 

It's that kind of reactionary crap that leads to this kind of season.  Gute does not understand the mentality that if a player isn't what you want him to be and yet he's still better than an alternative, you don't get rid of that player. 

Given Gute is in charge, I would not be remotely surprised if Bulaga, Crosby, Williams, Daniels, and Graham are all cut.  People will celebrate Bulaga being cut, they'll celebrate Williams and Graham being cut, they'll scream for joy if Perry gets cut and then we'll have jack **** at those positions and people still won't get the simple concept that...

IF YOU ARE NOT BETTER AT THAT POSITION, YOU DO NOT CUT THE PLAYER AT THAT POSITION. 

 

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56 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I expect a lot more players are going to be cut than should be cut.  Gute has developed a serious case of fanitis. Well, I disagree with most of this post, so I will lay out my opinions below.

*Traded away Clinton-Dix when he was clearly our best and only serviceable safety.  Say what you want about him, but he was undoubtedly our best safety and the only player who could intercept a ball.  Clinton-Dix had 3 interceptions with us.  You know how many interceptions our entire team had without Clinton-Dix?  4.  Breeland had 2, King had 1, Alexander had 1.  We finished WORST in the NFL in interceptions (but Pettine was SO much better than Capers, who NEVER finished anywhere NEAR that low). When you start making 'business decisions' to not tackle, let alone tackle with authority, don't expect your team to keep you around. Some think that has been happening this year with Matthews recently, as well. This is something that falls into the category of potentially affecting other players in a negative way.

*Cut Jordy Nelson.  Don't care what anyone says, our offense - especially our red zone offense - would have been better with Nelson. I think it was the right time to part ways, but since you don't want to listen on this, I'll leave it at that.

*Fired McCarthy. Most posters here felt his time with the Packers should come to an end. MURPHY agreed. Perhaps Gute did as well, hard to know.

It's that kind of reactionary crap that leads to this kind of season.  Gute does not understand the mentality that if a player isn't what you want him to be and yet he's still better than an alternative, you don't get rid of that player. On that basis it follows that you endorse cancers in the locker room if they can play. How much change equals reactionary ? It depends on the circumstances.

Given Gute is in charge, I would not be remotely surprised if Bulaga, Crosby, Williams, Daniels, and Graham are all cut.  People will celebrate Bulaga being cut, they'll celebrate Williams and Graham being cut, they'll scream for joy if Perry gets cut and then we'll have jack **** at those positions and people still won't get the simple concept that... You (or rather I) don't normally celebrate cuts (Dom Capers might have been an exception). You might agree with them though. I'd guess at Crosby being cut or beaten out, but I think the others you mentioned stay for 2019. Graham is disappointing, but cost a pretty penny to cut this year.

IF YOU ARE NOT BETTER AT THAT POSITION, YOU DO NOT CUT THE PLAYER AT THAT POSITION. Not necessarily. For example, you might want to cut a guy for a more reliably healthy one even if they are not as good, because availability matters. Maybe you project a young guy to improve over an expensive older player, essentially a roll of the dice move. You might cut a player for attitude (Clinton-dix, Randall) or for something he has done outside of football. You might want to stockpile guys of a slightly different body-type than you have now because you are preparing for a schematic change. Maybe you are spending too much on one position group and you want to spread the cap dollars around in a different way. There are a ton of reasons your all caps statement is not as hard and fast as you assert.

 

 

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Just now, coachbuns said:

Pure and simple; just a terrible resigning.  Regardless what they do, it s costing us big time either way.    

You're talking about Perry right? If your comments based on talent - probably right given the return / production on the dollar we received. Thats either bad talent evaluation / projection or lousy luck on the injury front. The money was probably not too far out of line with the time it was signed.

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1 minute ago, Leader said:

I buy into Plan B.
Plus - or doesnt this make any difference - future CAPs are gonna be larger right? So - bigger CAP down the line against a fixed dead money hit. Or something like that :)
I just dont think we're gonna get much outta him on the field anymore.

It doesn't really matter. You should always Post-June-1st Cut players.

The only advantage that not doing it represents is it keeps money out of your hands so you can't spend it and wreck cap in future years. Basically it's only an advantage if you don't trust yourself to be disciplined with it.

It's the equivalent of putting your money into a stock where you can't pull it out, as opposed to one where the money is available (assuming they have the same terms and interest rates) because you don't trust yourself not to put it out and spend it. 

Frankly, anybody who has that concern, shouldn't be managing NFL salary caps. 

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Gute and Murphy are obviously undertaking a multi-year transformation of what had become a staid organization.

The transformation of the front office that began last offseason will continue and the purge of the 2017 coaching staff is now all but complete.

As for the roster ...

Nick Perry: He will be 29 years old when camp opens. He has had exactly 1 productive season out of 7 in Green Bay. Just 1. He is the personification of injury-prone. He has been grossly overpaid for his meagre production. He never wanted to play OLB in a 3-4 scheme. His presence is a constant reminder of all the miserable play and awful (personnel and coaching) decisions that have plagued the defensive side of the ball the past 7 years.

No one, not Perry's biggest fans would count on Nick being healthy and playing well in 2019.

In 2018, the Packers had to suffer the ignominy of absorbing a $4.2 dead cap hit for Martellus Bennett. That sucks and it hurts, but it is part of doing business in the NFL when your GM makes mistakes.

Gute needs to bite the bullet and absorb an even bigger cap hit in 2019 by moving on from Perry.

Mason Crosby: He has has some great moments as a Packer. He had a poor 2018 season and has not been an above-average kicker for several years now. At the very least, Gute should extract a significant pay cut from Crosby.

Tramon WIlliams: If Pettine is retained, I agree with the OP's statement that "I just don't think the front office could stomach not having any kind of safety net back there, even if they could probably get better with the money saved"

If a new DC comes in all bets are off and Tramon could easily be let go.

Bryan Bulaga: Because Spriggs remains an enigma, I agree with those who maintain that Bulaga should be kept around unless and until a viable replacement is added to the roster. I expect him to be back in 2019.

Mike Daniels: Though overrated by some Packer fans and overpaid for his production, I don't see the need to cut him this offseason. 2019 will almost surely be his last season in GB, however.

Jimmy Graham: Obviously overpaid for production, but there is nothing behind him at TE so I also expect him to be back in 2019.

In addition to the above, I expect Gute to move on from another "veteran" or two not currently on the radar of potential cuts.

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