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1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

There are more variables at play on this, but let me just dig into Ryan because I see that as Carr's ceiling. A franchise guy, who is good not great and when all the parts line up can have a few pro bowl seasons. I don't think he will ever be "elite", but you can win with him. Ryan went through a body transition, got stronger and I think was mentally further along that Carr at this point in his career. 

 

Here is where we disagree.  You let Carr play in a dome for 8 games and give him 2 pro bowl RB's, an all world WR in Julio, Sanu, Ridley, (or back then Julio, Roddy White, Turner, Tony Gonzo) a rock solid O line and a middle of the road D and he puts up superior numbers to Ryan.  On the flip side if you give Ryan the dumpster fire of a roster that Carr had/has you would see inferior numbers to what Carr has posted.

To compare them at this point in their careers is unfair because their surrounding casts couldn't be more different.  I will say that this season is Carrs floor, that is unless Gruden and Mayock are completely incompetent and the roster they mold is in worse shape over the next few years than it was this year.  If that is the case this franchise has much greater things to worry about than Carr.

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1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

The question is a little more complicated than that including cost.  A much better question is he worth what he is being paid.  Would you rather have Carr + a rookie DE or Mack and a rookie QB to start a franchise?  To answer the question without taking other variables into consideration would be stupid.  How many QBs are going to be better than Carr over the next two years because if he does not start playing up to that contract he will not be here passed 2 years.  If he can not put this team on hs back and get a few wins because he is unstoppable then he is not worth the top six money he is getting paid.

What Qb's did I not list that you would take over Carr in this scenario?  

You mention variables in your post.  Do you think supporting cast is a variable in QB production and play and if so how much do you think the dumpster fire of a roster we had contributed to Carr's statical regression?

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3 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

Here is where we disagree.  You let Carr play in a dome for 8 games and give him 2 pro bowl RB's, an all world WR in Julio, Sanu, Ridley, (or back then Julio, Roddy White, Turner, Tony Gonzo) a rock solid O line and a middle of the road D and he puts up superior numbers to Ryan.  On the flip side if you give Ryan the dumpster fire of a roster that Carr had/has you would see inferior numbers to what Carr has posted.

To compare them at this point in their careers is unfair because their surrounding casts couldn't be more different.  I will say that this season is Carrs floor, that is unless Gruden and Mayock are completely incompetent and the roster they mold is in worse shape over the next few years than it was this year.  If that is the case this franchise has much greater things to worry about than Carr.

Chicken or the egg?  Does Ryan make the players around him better or does the players around him make him better.  The only thing about Carr that I know is that Carr was holding Cooper back if Carr is better than Dak.  

As for players I would start a franchise with over Carr there are a few that I would give strong consideration to but would ultimately come down to what else I had.  If I wanted to spend my money on players around the QB I would not choose a QB that was getting paid as much as Carr (Goff, Watson, Mullens, Trubisky, Mayfield, Mahommes, Wentz, Darnold, Allen, and Rosen).  Not that I believe they are better or will become better.  They all have the ability to be better and give me time to build the team around them because of their contracts.  If I want to win in the next three years I take I take players like Wilson, Ryan, Rivers, Luck, Rodgers, Ben, and Stafford.  My coach would also play a role in what type of QB I started with.  You need an up to date philosophy and a strategy before you pick the player.  This is one of the issues I believe this team has had for decades.

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17 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

Chicken or the egg?  Does Ryan make the players around him better or does the players around him make him better.  The only thing about Carr that I know is that Carr was holding Cooper back if Carr is better than Dak.  

As for players I would start a franchise with over Carr there are a few that I would give strong consideration to but would ultimately come down to what else I had.  If I wanted to spend my money on players around the QB I would not choose a QB that was getting paid as much as Carr (Goff, Watson, Mullens, Trubisky, Mayfield, Mahommes, Wentz, Darnold, Allen, and Rosen).  Not that I believe they are better or will become better.  They all have the ability to be better and give me time to build the team around them because of their contracts.  If I want to win in the next three years I take I take players like Wilson, Ryan, Rivers, Luck, Rodgers, Ben, and Stafford.  My coach would also play a role in what type of QB I started with.  You need an up to date philosophy and a strategy before you pick the player.  This is one of the issues I believe this team has had for decades.

The players around Ryan make him better.  If you want to see what kind of QB Ryan really is put him on the Raiders this past season.  No one should have to be subjected to the disaster of a roster we had this last year.  It's was absolutely laughable.  

All of the Qb's you mentioned are all on rookie contracts.  Is your point to roll with a rookie, when his contract is up let him walk and draft another rookie until his contract expires?  If so that is a terrible philosophy.  I will venture to say that all mentioned, minus Mullins, if they're average, will make as much as Carr or more when their contracts are due.  

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Since this thread is about Carr now :)

I will drop this here:

Carr has the same OC, system in back to back years only once during his NFL carrier. Yes his break out 2016 season was the second season under Musgrave (who again seems like a below average OC without Carr). The difference on offense was one OG from 2015 to 2016 and while KO was a big addition and the hole OL played great in 2016 we can assume that the biggest plus in 2016 was Carr being totally comfortable in a system in year 2. He made really quick reads, he had quick release which helped the OL in pass protection big time. He felt comfortable, he made good decisions constantly and suddenly looked like a true franchise QB, like a top 5 guy.

Let us sit back and see what he can do in year 2 with Gruden. Obviously we have to really hope that Mayock and Gruden can upgrade the OL and bring some weapons in, but I think the biggest thing for Carr will be year 2 in the same system. 

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1 hour ago, Rolni said:

Since this thread is about Carr now :)

I will drop this here:

Carr has the same OC, system in back to back years only once during his NFL carrier. Yes his break out 2016 season was the second season under Musgrave (who again seems like a below average OC without Carr). The difference on offense was one OG from 2015 to 2016 and while KO was a big addition and the hole OL played great in 2016 we can assume that the biggest plus in 2016 was Carr being totally comfortable in a system in year 2. He made really quick reads, he had quick release which helped the OL in pass protection big time. He felt comfortable, he made good decisions constantly and suddenly looked like a true franchise QB, like a top 5 guy.

Let us sit back and see what he can do in year 2 with Gruden. Obviously we have to really hope that Mayock and Gruden can upgrade the OL and bring some weapons in, but I think the biggest thing for Carr will be year 2 in the same system. 

Really hoping we see Carr level up in year 2 of Gruden's system. He mentally looks different now. Looks much more rattled after injuries. I don't see that same mamba mentality he possesed in 2016. Maybe that's because of poor protection.

One constant however is is YPA. Even in 2016, it was low. He love the check down. 

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1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

Really hoping we see Carr level up in year 2 of Gruden's system. He mentally looks different now. Looks much more rattled after injuries. I don't see that same mamba mentality he possesed in 2016. Maybe that's because of poor protection.

One constant however is is YPA. Even in 2016, it was low. He love the check down. 

He loves the check down because that is what the offense call for quick reads. If the hot route isn't there you get it to the outlet. If you wathc ball you know that is Gruden's MO. It's not every play but it the foundation of his playbook.  I'm not talking about any other year but this one with this coach before you say that is what Carr has always done.

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46 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

He loves the check down because that is what the offense call for quick reads. If the hot route isn't there you get it to the outlet. If you wathc ball you know that is Gruden's MO. It's not every play but it the foundation of his playbook.  I'm not talking about any other year but this one with this coach before you say that is what Carr has always done.

He's had multiple OC's and systems and consistent in each one is his hurry to check down. It's not about quick reads, he often doesn't even look for the WR. I go back to the first Chargers game where Cooper was getting open repeatedly and wasn't even being looked at in favor of checking down. 

Carr get skittish in the pocket. Sometimes when there isn't pressure and hurries the check down

It's no coincidence Cooper is finding success in Dallas. Dak looks for him every play and lets hit route develop. It was clear after that Chargers game Cooper wasn't interested in playing here IMO. 

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41 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

He's had multiple OC's and systems and consistent in each one is his hurry to check down. It's not about quick reads, he often doesn't even look for the WR. I go back to the first Chargers game where Cooper was getting open repeatedly and wasn't even being looked at in favor of checking down. 

Carr get skittish in the pocket. Sometimes when there isn't pressure and hurries the check down

It's no coincidence Cooper is finding success in Dallas. Dak looks for him every play and lets hit route develop. It was clear after that Chargers game Cooper wasn't interested in playing here IMO. 

Once again, I'm not talking about any other year but this one with this coach before you say that is what Carr has always done.

Look at Gruden's offenses everywhere else he has coached. CHECKDOWN is your friend. Gannon won a MVP checking it down and then striking when the defense was out of position. But the checkdown to deep strike ratio was weighted far in the checkdown's favor.

It's what the offense calls for. Everything else is perspective and assumptions.

Cooper is having success in a different offense. Apples to Oranges.

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I see Brady as a QB that has quick reads and chooses the correct receiver.  Carr looks more like he panics.  Now is he going to look better and not panic with better protection? I believe he will but for right now he does not have it.

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20 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

Once again, I'm not talking about any other year but this one with this coach before you say that is what Carr has always done.

Look at Gruden's offenses everywhere else he has coached. CHECKDOWN is your friend. Gannon won a MVP checking it down and then striking when the defense was out of position. But the checkdown to deep strike ratio was weighted far in the checkdown's favor.

It's what the offense calls for. Everything else is perspective and assumptions.

Cooper is having success in a different offense. Apples to Oranges.

Shhhh stop making sense

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